overview of recent elections, 2010
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Overview of Recent Elections, 2010. By Dan Nataf , Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College November 18, 2010. National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Overview of Recent Elections, 2010
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community CollegeNovember 18, 2010
National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote
• Party identification in 2010: Dem/Rep at 35%, 29% Ind. (vs. 39/32/29% in 2008)
• Defection slightly higher among Dems 7% vs 5% Reps
• Indep. vote sided strongly with Reps 56% not Dems 37% (vs. 41/52% in ‘08)
• Women equally split (48 D; 49% R) (vs. 56, 43% in 2008)
• Whites strongly Rep (60%) not Dem (37%) (vs. 55, 43% in 2008)
• Only those with little (57%) or postgrad ed (53%) favored Dems
Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls
National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote
Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls
Vote by Age (08/10)
Dem ’08
Dem ‘10
Rep
18-29 18/12 66 55 4230-44 29/24 52 46 5045-64 37/43 50 45 5365 and Older 16/21 45 38 59
Older voters worried about Medicare/Health care reform?
National Politics: House Vote• Libs and Moderates favored Dems (90, 55%) but were too small
(20, 38%) a part of electorate vs Cons. (42%) who massively favored Reps (84)
(2008: Lib 22; Moderate 44; Cons. 34%)
• Lost job – no effect(30%)? Yes (50 Dem; 46% Rep) No (45, 54%)
• Union member (17%): Yes (61 Dem; 37% Rep) No (43, 54%)
• 2008 Presidential Vote: Obama (45%) 84,14%; McCain (45%) 7,91%, Other (4%) 33, 58%
• Is vote support for Obama? Yes (23%) 96 Dem; 3% Rep; No (37%) 6, 92%, Not factor (38%), 52, 44%
National Politics: House Vote
How Congress is Handling its Job
Democrat
Republican
Strongly Approve (4%) 82 16Somewhat Approve (20%) 78 20Somewhat Disapprove (26%) 57 41Strongly Disapprove (48%) 19 77
What is your opinion of… Democrat
Republican
Democrats - favorable (44%) 91 8Republicans - favorable (41%) 11 88
Too many people strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing…
But unfavorable opinions are spread to both Dems and Reps
National Politics: House Vote
Opinion of Federal Government
Democrat
Republican
Enthusiastic (3%) 92 6Satisfied (21%) 79 18Dissatisfied (48%) 41 55Angry (25%) 14 83
Govt should do more ? Dem RepYes, do more (38%) vs 51% in ’08 77 21No, do less (56%) vs. 43% in ‘08 20 76
Govt. perceived as over-reaching…
With too many dissatisfied with federal govt.
National Politics: House VoteHow worried about economic conds.?
Dem Rep
Very Worried (49%) 30 68Somewhat Worried (37%) 52 43Not Too Worried (10%) 81 18Reversal of 2008 when those worried lined up behind
Dems
Economic anxieties favor Reps..
Worried That Economic Crisis Will Hurt Your Family
Dem Rep
Very Worried (48%) 62 36Somewhat Worried (33%) 52 47Not Too Worried (13%) 33 63Not Worried At All (5%) 40 56
National Politics: House Vote
Stimulus Policy has Dem RepHelped (32%) 86 13Hurt (34%) 10 87Made No Difference (31%) 39 57
Stimulus not perceived as having done enough…
While blaming Wall Street or Bush just wasn’t enough…
Who Do You Blame for Economic Problems?
Dem Rep
Wall Street (35%) 41 57George W. Bush (29%) 83 15Barack Obama (24%) 6 91
National Politics: House Vote
What Should Congress Do With New Health Care Law?
Dem Rep
Expand It (31%) 84 15Leave It As Is (16%) 63 34Repeal It (48%) 11 86
And probably viewed as a distraction from the prime concerns of most citizens…
Most Important Issue Facing Country Today
Democrat
Republican
Economy (63%) 43 54Health Care (18%) 51 47Illegal Immigration (8% 26 68War in Afghanistan (7%) 58 40
Health care reform was polarizing and insufficiently popular
National Politics: House Vote
Bush-Era Tax Cuts Should Be Continued For...
Dem Rep
All Americans (40%) 14 84Families Under $250,000 (36%) 64 32No One (15%) 75 22
Highest Priority for Next Congress
Dem Rep
Cutting Taxes (18%) 26 71Reducing Deficit (40%) 32 65Spending to Create Jobs (37%) 68 30
Republicans face contradictory pressures – reduce deficit vs. cutting taxes
Now policy direction lacks consensus…and is polarizing
National Politics: House Vote
U.S. War in Afghanistan Dem Rep Approve (40%) 24 75Disapprove (54%) 61 36
Should Same-Sex Marriages Be Legally Recognized?
Dem Rep
Yes (41%) 67 30No (53%) 27 70
Dems disapprove of war in Afghanistan – losing the base?
While same sex marriage still troubled waters for Dems
Polling Results for AA County
57 5458 55
6266
60 61 6258 58
5357 55
51 52 51 50 5247
52 52 49
2327 25 24 23
15
2621
2531
2429 27 26 29 27
33 32 31 28 27 28 2820 19 17 20
1519
1418
13 1219 18 16 18 20 21
16 17 1725
21 20 23
Right 51
Wrong 34
Unsure 15
05
10152025303540455055606570
Sp '9
9
Fa '9
9
Sp '0
0
Fa '0
0
Sp '0
1
Fa '0
1
Sp '0
2
Fa '0
2
Sp '0
3
Fa '0
3
Sp '0
4
Fa '0
4
Sp '0
5
Fa '0
5
Sp '0
6
Fa '0
6
Sp '0
7
Fa '0
7
Sp '0
8
Fa '0
8
Sp '0
9
Fa '0
9
Sp '1
0
Fa '1
0
Right Wrong Unsure
Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…
AA County Polling Results: Most Important ProblemFall '04 to Fall '10
Fall '04 Spring '05
Fall '05 Spring '06
Fall '06 Spring '07
Fall '07 Spring '08
Fall '08 Spring '09
Fall '09 Spring '10
Fall '10 Mean 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
8 7 7
15
712
8
23
38
48
3336 36
20
1013
10 10 9
15 17 1612 10 12 11 13 12
Economy still top problem, but mostly unchanged since March 2009
Economy /Housing Taxes – too high Growth /developmentEducation / Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs
AA County Polling Results: Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since
March 2009
S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10Anne Arundel County Maryland USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better
S'02
F '02 S '03
F '03 S '04
F '04 S '05
F '05 S '06
F '06 S '07
F '07 S '08
F '08 S '09
F '09 S '10
F '100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
38
26 2722
34 3431 28
3842
3227
17
5 510 11 11
74 76
56 5662
74 7471
7471 71 69
5549
46 4844 45
CSLI - AA County
Gallup - USA
AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’
Unable
to fin
d afford
able
housin
g
Wages
or sal
aries
are no
t risin
g as fa
st as th
e cost
of liv
ing
Hard to
afford
the c
ost of
transp
ortati
on
Hard to
afford
the c
ost of
utilit
ies su
ch as
electr
icity o
r gas
Taxes
are to
o high
in re
lation
to go
vernm
ent se
rvices
prov
ided
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
21
56
40
61
11
59
32
5058
12
55
21
5359
13
55
17
42
59
15
56
21
44
63
10
56
24
43
60
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10
Some costs have gone down
The economy: what else applies?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
116
35
15
71
4
30
24
75
6
51
2924
70
8
46
33
19
56
7
47
32
21
60
7
44
34
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10
Unemployment rose sharply from March ‘08 to March ‘09 and hasn’t changed much since
Stock market recovery lessened ‘losses’ per-centage
Health care anxiety unchanged despite re-form…
Minor improvement in readiness to spend
Statewide Races – AAC Results ‘06/’10
Govr Comptroller Atty Gen. Senate0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
43.3
5151.5
45.743.450.4
100
52.356.7
4948.5
54.354.4
49.6
0
47.7
Very little change in Governor or Comptroller outcomes
Mikulski improves
Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel CountyAnne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
8000066972
-2254
-28743-20788
-53215
-27581
-21963
Dem – Rep Vote for GovernorSchaeffer 83%Mooney 17%
Schaeffer 49%Shepard 51%
Glendening 40%Sauerbrey 60%
Glendening 43%Sauerbrey 57%
KK Townsend 35%Ehrlich 65%
O’Malley 42%Ehrlich 57%
O’Malley 43%Ehrlich 54%
O’Malley on low end of typical Dem vote deficit
Statewide Races: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor 2006-2010
Nov. 2006
March 2010
October 11-14, 2010
Oct. 26-27
Nov. 2
Candidate ActualVote
All Categorie
s
Exclude some
All categorie
s
Exclude some
Exclude all
except voters
Exit Poll
Actual
VoteO’Malley 42 35 43 29 32 42 46 43Ehrlich 56.9 47 57 40 45 59 51 54Gap 14.9 12 14 11 13 19 5 11Other -- 3 -- 2 -- -- 3 --Undecided -- -- -- 22 24 -- -- --Neither -- 5 -- 1 -- -- -- --Unsure -- 10 -- 5 -- -- -- --Total 100 100 99 101 101 100
Polls are in range, but with internal variation
State Senate in AAC (Districts 30,31,32,33)
STATE SENATOR 30 STATE SENATOR 31 STATE SENATOR 32 STATE SENATOR 330%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
54%50%
62%
45%46%50%
38%
55%51%
38%
60%
0%
49%
62%
40%
100%
Dem 2006Rep 2006Dem 2010Rep 2010
Dems experience lower percentages in all districts
Delegate Races in Districts 30,31,32,33: Dem-Rep
Gap
30 31 32 33a 33b
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
4982
-3341
10983
-5038
-2164
-3567
-32511
8825
-27514
-14492
Dem-Rep 2006
Dem-Rep 2010
Big Dem loss in 31 33b uncontested
33a only 1 Dem cand.
Loses in 32 – what’s the future for Dems there?
Race gets very close in 30
Senate and Delegate Minimum Winning Totals in Districts 30,31,32,33
Minimum winning vote Seats
District Senate Delegates
Senate Delegate
30 25253 22535 Dem D=1/R=2
31 25723 22436 Rep D=0/R=3
32 24762 18786 Dem D=3/R=0
33(a) 43466unconteste
d
18603 Rep D=0/R=2
33b uncontested
14623 D=0/R=1
District 33 – McConkey wins again!
Vitale sweeps up Severna Park; McConkey a solid second place.
Brennan
McConkey
Mc-Br
Vitale
Odenton/Millersville
27.0 34.4 +7.4 38.3
Severna Park 23.7 29.7 +6 46.3
Crofton/Crownsville 27.9 33.2 +5.3 38.6
Overall % 25.7 32.3 +6.6 41.7
Raw vote 14792 18603 +3811
24033
District 30 – Dems lose a seatBusch Clagett George
2006 2010 2010-2006
2006 2010
2010-2006
2006 2010
2010-2006
Broadneck 15.07
15.64
+.57 14.88
13.36
-1.5218.28 22.14
+3.86
Annapolis 20.91
21.60
+.7 19.86
17.76
-2.113.44 16.43
+2.99
South County
15.06
14.65
-.41 17.27
14.91
-2.3617.50 21.18
+3.68
Totals 17.06
18.01
+.95 16.97
15.87
-1.1 16.55
19.25
+2.65
Busch improves over 2006; Clagett drops across the board; George romps
Totals
%
Ron George 25610 19.25
Mike Busch 23964 18.01
Herb McMillan 22535 16.94
V. Clagett 21118 15.87
Seth Howard 20064 15.08
Judd Legum 19647 14.77
County Elections: Slots at Arundel MillsOpponents to the introduction of slot machines at Arundel Mills Mall are circulating a petition to put the county council’s decision to grant zoning needed for slots to referendum in November, potentially reversing the decision. Do you support or oppose this petition effort?Position March
’10Oct.‘10
Exit Poll
Actual Vote
Support 45 42 60 55.6Oppose 45 42 39 44.4Gap 0 0 21 11.2Unsure 7 16 -- --No answer 2 -- 1 --Total 99 100 100 100
Will you be voting for or against Question A on the November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the County Council's zoning decision permitting slots in the county, including at Arundel Mills and Laurel. An 'against' vote would leave the county without slots zoning at any location.
What happened to shift voter sentiment at last minute?
Question A: Election Day vs. Early Votingby Council District
1 2 3 4 5 6 70.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
51.1%
59.5%
65.0%
52.0%54.1% 54.8% 55.9%
61.3%
47.3%
54.5% 54.8% 56.5%
Quest AEarly Votes
Harundale Lib
West County
Lib
SPark Lib Annap
Senior Ctr
Edgewa-ter Lib
Early voted at West County
Early voting a good predictor of election day votes
County Executive Vote 1994-2010
1994 1998 2002 2006 20100
100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
100000
5761563879
83305
93533 97465
54899
87676 8945689613
85040
10486
RepDemOther
2716 23987 6151 392012425
Including Shay -1930
GAPOnly a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates
2010 County Exec Race Over Time
Nov. 2006
June 2010Online Poll
Sept.2010Onlin
ePoll
October 11-14, 2010
Oct. 26-27
Nov. 2
Candidate
ActualVote
All Categories
All Categories
All categories
Exclude some
Exclude all
except voters
Exit Poll
ActualVote
Johnson/Conti
49 30 (Owens)
23 (Conti)
28 21 24 37 39 44.0
Leopold 51 52/54 54 34 38 59 50 50.5Gap 2 22/31 26 13 14 22 11 6.5Other -- 15/16 10 2 3 -- -- 5.4Undecided -- -- -- 32 35 -- -- --Neither -- 4/7 9 2 -- -- 3 --Unsure -- -- -- 10 -- -- -- --Total 101/100 101 100 101 100 100Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening at the end…
County Executive Vote – Composition of Vote
by Party
23 44 38 50 2 7 35 2
40 72
21 21
4 733 2
1012
5681
0 7
33
1
1548 28 48
35
505
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Undecided None
UnaffilRepDemOverall
CONTI LEOPOLD SHAY
Oct. 11-14 telephone survey 1st) vs. exit poll (2nd)
Conti gains among unaffiliated and Dem voters
Leopold taps Reps and crossover Dems
Unaffiliated split votes Telephone Poll
Vote Composition: Exit Poll
Overall Dem Rep Unaffil.0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44
72
12
4843
84
9
39
51
89
15
57ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee
Conti lags among Dem voters but gains a bit among unaffiliated
Voter Composition continued: Exit Poll
Strg Dem Weak Dem Ind Dem Ind Rep Weak Rep Strg Rep0
20
40
60
80
100
120
81
64
31 2919
4
95
75
50
2112
0
96
83 83
13
40
4
ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee
Conti lags among Dems, but gains among Reps
Vote by Ideology
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
79
54
1016
41
8285
52
610
40
9494
59
136
42
87
ContiLeopoldO'MalleyEhrlichWeathersbeeGrannon
Conti lags among liberals but does a bit better with conservatives
County Exec.: How informed were voters?
Series10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9
28
56 56
35
16
31
43 42
53
27
5
0 0
24
0
76
0
ContiLeopoldUndecided
Oct. 11-14
Oct. 11-14
Oct. 11-14
EXIT POLL
EXIT POLL
EXIT POLL
VERY In-formed
SOMEWHAT Informed
NOT VERY Informed
Voters seem informed by election
Leopold voters started and remained more informed
County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14)
On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay?
Issue Conti Leopold
L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know
enough
Undec.+ don’t
know enoughAllowing slots at Arundel Mills mall
10 17 7 1 27 46 73
Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget
16 18 2 1 21 4465
Maintaining high ethical standards
17 17 0 3 24 39 63
Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Making County government more efficient
12 29 17 2 21 37 58
Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56Having the right experience for the job
11 32 21 1 21 35 56
Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55Encouraging economic development
13 31 18 1 18 37 55
Conti Leopold L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know
enough
U
Undecided/Don’tknow
enoughHaving the right experience for the job 11 32 21 1 21 35 56Encouraging economic development 13 31 18 1 18 37 55Making County government more efficient 12 29 17 2 21 37 58
Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall 10 17 7 1 27 46 73Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget
16 18 2 1 21 44 65
Maintaining high ethical standards 17 17 0 3 24 39 63
County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)
Issue Stands/Traits Most Shaping Choice for County Exec. (Exit Poll)
Issue/trait Overall Conti Leopold L-C Balance budget 30 21 44 23Taxes 21 10 34 24Right experience 22 15 32 17Cost of living 14 7 23 16Strong leader 16 11 24 13Economy 33 31 43 12Crime 14 9 20 11Growth/devel. 15 12 18 6Familiar name 4 1 7 6Slots 10 8 12 4Constituent serv. 9 8 11 3Environment 15 17 11 -6Schools 21 26 19 -7Honesty 13 21 8 -13Right moral outlook 16 24 9 -15Party affiliation 28 38 22 -16
Conti bets on character and party
Leopold bets on experience and issues
Weathersbee vs. Bateman
Council District
Weathersbee ‘06
Weathersbee
‘10
Weathersbee
‘10-’06
Bateman‘10
W-B
1 57.3 54.3 -3 60.4 -6.12 55.3 52.8 -2.5 59.8 -7.03 48.8 43.6 -5.2 55.5 -11.94 58.2 56.4 -1.8 61.9 -5.55 49.2 46.7 -2.5 55.1 -8.46 62.0 58.6 -3.4 61.5 -2.97 51.8 45.7 -6.1 50.7 -5.0
Total54.7 51.2 -3.5
57.8 (up from 54% in ‘06) -6.7Weathersbee has large
losses in districts 3 and 7 in 2010 and no gains in any district
Bateman increases votes from ‘06 and wins majority in all districts in 2010
Council Districts Party Registration
36% D, 41%R, 19%U
48%D, 31%R, 18%U
53%D, 29%R, 18%U
49%D, 32%R, 18%U42%D, 39%R, 19%U
37%D, 44%R, 20%U
47%D, 31%R, 18%U
Democratic Candidates by Council
District
CC1
CC2
CC3
CC4
CC5
CC6
CC7
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
49.2%
48.5%
35.7%
57.1%
42.8%
58.0%
43.8%
45.8%
42.8%
30.8%
51.9%
37.1%
51.7%
39.8%
47.4%
46.2%
35.0%
53.8%
38.7%
48.1%
39.9%
52.5%
45.5%
41.0%
59.5%
36.0%
53.1%
36.4%
51.7%
48.1%
41.7%
47.1%
36.6%
46.1%
37.6%
PartyRegDemCCContiOmalleyObama
Benoit and Trumbauer exceed Dem registra-tion
Klosterman under-performs in district 2
Conti underperforms in district 6
Rudolph about aver-age in district 5
Meaningless party reg. in district 3
Majority Dem regis-tration in D1
Democratic Candidates by Council District
Obama
OMalley Conti DemCC Mean
Party Reg
Mean-Reg.
CC1 49.2 45.8 47.4 52.5 48.7 51.7 -3
CC2 48.5 42.8 46.2 45.5 45.7 48.1 -2.4
CC3 35.7 30.8 35 41 35.6 41.7 -6.1
CC4 57.1 51.9 53.8 59.5 55.6 47.1 8.5
CC5 42.8 37.1 38.7 36 38.6 36.6 2.1
CC6 58 51.7 48.1 53.1 52.7 46.1 6.6
CC7 43.8 39.8 39.9 36.4 40 37.6 2.4
District 3 underperforms!
Districts 4 and 6 overperform
Legislative Districts
National Issues: Presidential job approval
39 34 3528 24
5347 47 4237 33 32 30 25
6154
47 43
010203040506070
Fall '06
Spring '07
Fall '07
Spring '08
Fall '08
Spring '09
Fall '09
Spring '10
Fall '10
CSLI Gallup