overview of soaring food prices and country policy responses
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Overview of soaring food prices and country policy responses. Nancy Morgan Livestock Policy Officer FAO/Regional Office, Bangkok. The price escalator: food commodity prices fall from their peaks…. The magnitude of the price changes. Since early 2007 prices rose…. 98%. 19%. 232%. 67%. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Overview of soaring food prices Overview of soaring food prices and country policy responsesand country policy responses
Nancy MorganLivestock Policy Officer
FAO/Regional Office, Bangkok
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The price escalator: food commodity prices fall from their peaks….
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The magnitude of the price changes
0
200
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1200
1400
US
$/t
on
ne
Wheat Maize Rice Chicken Palm Oil
1st qtr 06
Mar-08
most recent
67%
80%
232%
19%
98%
Since early 2007 prices rose…..
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Factors underpinning rising prices….
• Since 2000, cereal demand has been outpacing production resulting in lower stocks and increased price volatility
• High oil prices and energy costs… with biofuel policies strengthening linkages between food and energy
• Recent droughts have aggravated recent price movements
• Possible influence of speculators….
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Strong commodity demand leads to lower stocks• Cereal production
lower than demand since 2000
• Lower stock availabilities, stocks-use declines especially for rice and wheat.
• Policies have changed over the past in major exporting countries and it’s expensive to carry stocks
Cereal Stocks Fall with Stocks-to-Use Estimated the Lowest in Three
Decades
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
wheat
rice
maize
60% of stockdecline from China
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What goes up usually comes down…..Even maize which in June jumped because of flooding in the US corn belt
But maize prices shifted down nearly 35% inTWO Weeks!
Markets characterized byincredible price volatility
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Speculative pressures----A more than doubling in futures trading of basic foodstuffson the Chicago Board of Trade leads to more price volatility
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Price movements seem to be out of line with historical trends
00.40.81.21.6
22.42.83.2
1994
1999
2002
2007
Ind
ex
: 1
99
8-2
00
0 =
1
Maize
Poultry
US maize=$269
US cuts=$1,001
Poultry prices will need to rise if maize price continue increasing
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Let’s take a look at rice in AsiaRICE 1980-2 1990-2 2005-7
Share of world: %
Output 91 92 91
Imports 49 41 46
Exports 65 71 81
Trade as share of
Consumption (global)
4% 3% 7%
Import volumes (share of consumption) in 2007
Asia 7.9mmt (4%) 4.1mmt (3%) 14mmt (4%)
Philippines .1 (2%) .8 (10%) 1.9 (17%)
Indonesia 2 (11%) .05 (5%) 1.5 (6%)
Bangladesh .4 (1%) .4 (1%) .8 (3%)
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A clear disconnect between wheat and rice price movements: what is going on?
Wheat and rice prices are linked
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1200
1998
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US
$/to
nn
e
Rice
Wheat
What happens to rice prices depends on the outlook forwheat.
Wheat output to rise to 647 mmt (up 7%)in 2008.
Is this a food crisis or price crisis?An example of panic buying in a thin market
Influence of policies by major traders leads to the question……
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The linkages are clearer between commodity prices increases and high energy prices
FAO Food Price Index
80
105
130
155
180
205
230
2000
2002
2004
2006
M-0
7J
07S 0
7N 0
7J
08M
08M
08
J 08
1998-20...
With additional pressure puton feedstock prices because ofbiofuel policies in selected countries
Index for light crude oil
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Oil consumption in China (million tons)
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350
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
China’s oil consumption share in the world (%)
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1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
By 2006, crude oil consumption reached 350 mmt, 48% was imported. China is now one of major importers of oil in the world (after the US, EU and Japan)
The role of China in energy markets(slide from Dr, Hunaguang Qiu)
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The issue of fossil and biofuels: linkages do affect commodity
prices, particularly maize
100
150
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Avera
ge (2
000-
2005
)
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
US
$/b
ush
el
Projections
Old Proj.
US, #2 yellow, Gulf
High oil prices, increased demand for maize
for ethanol production pushes up feed prices
Maize prices expected up 20% over previous estimates, to $164/tonne by 2017
50
100
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350
2000
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2005
2006
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2008
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Economics of bio-energy
($2)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8Aug-06
Dec-07
Jul-08
Input costs
Margins
Source: USDA
?????
High input costs slashing margins
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Translating the impact of rising international prices
across the chain
International
Local markets
Farms
Households
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Impact of market shocks depend on trade situation: Asian agricultural imports double since 1990
0
20000
40000
60000
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100000
120000
140000 1990
2004
2008
•Asian agricultural importsexceeded $165 billion in 2005,more than double 1990’s level.
•Cereals dominate imports but growth has also been driven by increased imports of oilcrops, fruits, vegetables, and meats.
1,000 tonnes
Valued at $22 billion in 2004
• 48% of global imports;• Imports 12% of total regional consumption
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Vulnerability to higher cereal prices linked to dependence on international trade
Net Trade PositionImports as share of
consumption
(average: 2005-2007)
Bangladesh (3,282) 10%
China 2,530 1%
India 1,471 2%
Indonesia (6,873) 13%
Korea, Rep (12,744) 72%
Myanmar 397 0%
Pac. Islands (16) 100%
Pakistan 3,342 2%
Philippines (4,921) 24%
Thailand 7,474 8%
Vietnam 3,490 5%
Asia (51,011) 9%
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A reminder: domestic prices don’t necessarily rise as much as international
prices
The Philippine peso rose by 33% since early 2006, making importscheaper; recent devaluation…
In an exporting country, such as Thailand, the appreciation reduces exporters earnings.
In countries like Indonesia andBangladesh with stable currencies,the impacts on local prices are highest
The exchange rate factor
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Also market impact linked to country policy responses
Bans on rice exports: India, Vietnam, Cambodia, China
Minimum Export Prices: Vietnam
Increasing minimum purchase price (wheat and rice): China/India/Thailand
Increase agricultural input subsidies: India/China
Reducing import tariffs: Pakistan for wheat, Philippines considering for rice
Selling rice stocks at subsidized prices:
Subsidizing rice prices: Bangladesh
Releasing public stocks: Indonesia
Some policyinterventions more market distorting than others
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Rice and food security: Global => Household
Assume that:• 30-40% of income of households below the poverty line
is spent on rice (IRRI)
• A 25% percent in the price of rice lead to a 7-10% decline in real incomes (IRRI)
This implies that for those households, especially the urban poor (6% of the Central Province-disabled, students, elderly, migrants, refugees), real incomes will decline 10-40% (depending on magnitude of price increases).
WHAT ABOUT PRODUCER’S RESPONSIVENESS TO HIGHER PRICES?
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Policies to support Net Food Buyers(urban residents, small farmers, fisher folk, foresters, pastoralists and
agricultural laborers)
• Remove VAT, road blocks/taxes• Tax reduction on fuel for transport• Increase imports (compensatory finance arrangements by World Bank, IMF)• Food aid in kind• Requisition of private stocks• Releasing stocks• Price controls• Cash transfers or food vouchers• Food distribution in kind• Food subsidies
• RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE RATE!!!!!!
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Responding to High Commodity Prices; Potential Impact of Policy Interventions
Short Term Long Term
Far
m In
com
eP
rodu
ctio
nG
over
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t cos
tsC
onsu
mer
pric
esU
rban
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sec
urity
Rur
al fo
od s
ecur
ityIn
tern
atio
nal m
arke
ts-
pric
e vo
latil
ityP
rodu
ctio
nF
ood
secu
rity
Production Input subsidies ? ? ? Allow producer prices to rise (suppy=demand) NI Increase ceiling prices/administered prices for producers NI administered prices (keep prices low) NI
Limit retail price increases NI NI Release public stocks NI Lower import tariffs for the commodity Lower import tariffs for input NI Export bans/increase export taxes
Vouchers to vulnerable populations NI NI NI NI NI Consumer/food subsidies NI ?
Reduce VAT N.I. ? ?Other
Marketing and Trade
Production
Consumption
Recognizing the differential impact of policies on different stakeholders at different times
Increase Decrease
N.I. No impact? Not clear
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Changes in dairy prices Units Currency Oct-06 Dec-07 Change
World prices SMP tonnes US $ 2263 4400 94%Philippines: SMP 2300 6200 170%Sri Lanka WMP 184 275 49% Fluid milk 22 27.5 25%Vietnam WMP tonnes US $ 2800 4400 57% Fluid milk tonnes US $ 300 400 33%Pakistan liter US $ 0.3 0.38 27%Nepal WMP kg Local 185 225 22% Fluid milk liter Local 24 28 17%Mongolia WMP kg Local 3000 5000 67% Fluid milk liter Local 450 700 56%
The example of dairy price movements….
Domesticpolicies =price settingdiscourageslocal dairy development
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Impacts in Asia: the case of the Pacific Islands Countries
• Food security highly dependent on external factors
• Domestic transportation more expensive that international freight
• Cost of staples higher than in Australia
• Inflationary risks from potential currency depreciation due to rising imports bills and wage hikes
• Heavy dependence on imports in rural areas
Solutions: •Support social groups at risks•Interim wavers of imports tariffs on food imports/fuels•Provide free planting material for home gardens/domestic food products•Promote consumption of locally produced food
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Activities undertaken by FAO
Immediate emergency interventions in nearly 60 countries:
• Value of US$ 27million from RP (mobilized a total of $47 million)• Provide farmers with agricultural inputs to ensure success of next
planting season• Objectives: increase production and demonstrate that improved
inputs increase yields• Moving towards medium term initiatives, supporting regional
capacities.14 countries in Asia-Pacific: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,Cambodia, DPR Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines,Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste
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National Governments are the center of the response because the specific intervention has to be tailored for the context.
Priorities:• Response to needs for food assistance and broader
social protection• Distribution inputs/other ag. support=sustainable
interventions in the medium term?• Influencing policies=nothing will work without an enabling
environment.
At the end of the day…..
FAO Regional Office: Our challenge is to identify sustainable initiatives which draw on regional lessons but are tailored to national/sub-national contexts
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Brief Summary
• Causes are complex and linked to individual commodity markets
• We need to consider carefully the “price” versus the “food” crisis issue.
• Impact is contingent on the specific country situation, trade status, national policies, policy implementation.
• Interventions should be carefully tailoredFINALLY…..
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There is an Opportunity to Revitalize Asian Agricultural Sectors through Benefiting from Higher Commodity Prices
=> Wealth creation through Agriculture
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• $US 1.2 billion –WFP to support assistance in 62 countries• Reserve of US$100 million for food related emergence response• Nutrition assessment/interventions UNICEF; US$50 million• FAO: procurement and distribution of seeds, fertilizers and other
inputs.• IFAD: $200 million provides smallholder farmers access to
inputs/services• World Bank $1.2 billion of rapid financing for expansion of safety
nets, input distribution, financing of imports through World Bank Food Crisis Reponses Programme
• Additional balance of payments support under IMF’s existing Poverty Reduction and Growth Facilities (PRGF), around $180 million.
Comprehensive Framework for Action(High-Level Task Force on the Global Food Crisis)