Overview of system dynamics modelling

Nici Zimmermann

Monday, 11 January 20161

Richardson, George P. und Jack Homer: System Dynamics Modeling, 2007, http://obssr.od.nih.gov/pdf/RichardsonSystems.pdf, 10.10.2011

Managing the Mississippi

Flood years

1718

1724

1725

1735

1740

…

20112

A system dynamics perspective of the issue

Deegan, Michael A.: Exploring U.S. flood mitigation policies: A feedback view of system behavior, Ann Arbor, MI 2007, S. 131.

Flooding and Damage

100 properties

20 flooding

50 properties

10 flooding

0 properties

0 flooding 3

3

3 3

3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

2 2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

22

2

2

2

2

2

1 1

1

11 1 1 1 1 1 1

1

1

1 1

1

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Damaged Properties properties1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Vulnerable Properties properties2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

flooding : base flooding3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

3

Why system dynamics?

• Policy

resistance

• Counterintuitive

behaviour

• Man-made

causes

4

http://ais.badische-zeitung.de/piece/01/a7/d2/f6/27775734.jpg

• What will be the overall impact of polices aimed at

energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality

of dwellings?

• We know from history that single focus policies lead

to ‘unintended’ effects

Our starting point

5

Participatory approach of collaborative learning

Pablo Picassohttp://www.pablopicasso.org/picasso-paintings.jsp 6

Theory of system dynamics

7

System dynamics elevator pitch

From George Richardson:

• ‘System dynamics is the use of computer simulation

for policy analysis in complex systems. It's big

contribution is helping people to build progressively

richer understandings of some dynamic problem,

and anticipate weaknesses in policy initiatives that

would develop over time. …

• It gets a lot of its power from a 'feedback' perspective

… rather than simple one-way causal chains.

• Humans are good at thinking up all that interconnected

complexity and weak at inferring its implications.’ 8

Systems

Technical systems Social systems

Socio-technical systems

http://zensus11.de/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/maschine.png

9

Structure generates behaviour: Green Deal

GD

up

take

time

Desire…Actual…

today

GD Implementations

6 M

3 M

03 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 32 2 2

22 2 2 2 2 2

11

1

1

11

1 1 1 1 1

2012-10-01 2015-10-01 2018-10-01 2021-10-01Date

ho

use

hold

s

Households Who Happily Implemented GD : financial-rational 1 1Households Who Happily Implemented GD : user-driven 2 2Households Who Happily Implemented GD : full model 3 3 3

10

HouseholdsUnaware of

GD

HouseholdsAware of GD

HouseholdsPotentially

Interested inGD

Householdsthat

ImplementedGD

Assessment

HouseholdsPotentially

Interested inGD

Financing

getting awareinitiating

assessmentgetting

interested

getting aprovider

Trust inQuality orComfort

indicatedtrust

awareness-gainingfrom advertising

fraction gettinginterested

fraction initiatingassessment

fraction receivingassessment

+

fraction overcominginconvenience barrier

HouseholdsNot

Interested inGD

not gettinginterested

HouseholdsWho

ImplementedDifferentSchemes

HouseholdsWho HappilyImplemented

GD

HouseholdsWho LostInterest

financing GD

loosinginterest afterassessment

loosing interest afterassesing actual

constrains and benefits

fraction receivingfinancing

satisfactioneffect on WoM

time to gaintrust

IndustryExperience

gainingexperience

+

quality of work andcost effectiveness

+

+fraction overcomingcapital cost barrier

fractionovercomingtrust barrier

HouseholdsWho Got

Dissatisfied

gettingdissatisfied

implementingdifferent schemes

gaining trust+

via the causal map on ventilation, mould, and healthcommunity

social connection

renovating

R R BR

B

B

fraction gettingdissatisfied

TRUSTEXPERIENCE

FINANCESATTITUDESVALUES

AWARE-NESS

OTHERSCHEMES

Zimmermann, N., Black, L., Shrubsole, C.,

Davies, M., 2015. Meaning-making in the

process of participatory system dynamics

research, Proceedings of the 33rd International

Conference of the System Dynamics Society,

Cambridge, MA, pp. 1–12.

11

Appendix

12