overview of the investment process

Course : Z1462 Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Effective Period: February 2016

An Overview of theInvestment Process

Session 1 & 2

Acknowledgement

These slides have been adapted from:

Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown. (2012). Analysis of Investments and Management of Portfolios. 10. Cengage Learning. ISBN:

9780538482486

© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Chapter 1: An Overview of the Investment Process

Analysis of Investments & Management of Portfolios

10TH EDITION

Reilly & Brown


What Is An Investment?• Defining Investment: A current commitment of

$ for a period of time in order to derive future payments that will compensate for:– The time the funds are committed– The expected rate of inflation– Uncertainty of future flow of funds

• Reason for Investing: By investing (saving money now instead of spending it), individuals can tradeoff present consumption for a larger future consumption.

1-4


What Is An Investment?• Pure Rate of Interest

– It is the exchange rate between future consumption (future dollars) and present consumption (current dollars). Market forces determine this rate.

– Example: If you can exchange $100 today for $104 next year, this rate is 4% (104/100-1).

• Pure Time Value of Money– The fact that people are willing to pay more for the

money borrowed and lenders desire to receive a surplus on their savings (money invested) gives rise to the value of time referred to as the pure time value of money.

1-5


What Is An Investment?• Other Factors Affecting Investment Value

– Inflation: If the future payment will be diminished in value because of inflation, then the investor will demand an interest rate higher than the pure time value of money to also cover the expected inflation expense.

– Uncertainty: If the future payment from the investment is not certain, the investor will demand an interest rate that exceeds the pure time value of money plus the inflation rate to provide a risk premium to cover the investment risk Pure Time Value of Money.

1-6


What Is An Investment?• The Notion of Required Rate of Return

– The minimum rate of return an investor require on an investment, including the pure rate of interest and all other risk premiums to compensate the investor for taking the investment risk.

– Investors may expect to receive a rate of return different from the required rate of return, which is called expected rate of return. What would occur if these two rates of returns are not the same?

1-7

Historical Rates of Return• Return over A Holding Period

– Holding Period Return (HPR)

– Holding Period Yield (HPY)HPY=HPR-1

– Annual HPR and HPYAnnual HPR=HPR1/n

Annual HPY= Annual HPR -1=HPR1/n – 1where n=number of years of the investment

1-8

Investment of Value BeginningInvestment of Value EndingHPR=


Historical Rates of Return

Example: Assume that you invest $200 at the beginning of the year and get back $220 at the end of the year. What are the HPR and the HPY for your investment?

1-9

HPR=Ending value / Beginning value

=$220/200

=1.1

HPY=HPR-1=1.1-1=0.1

=10%


Historical Rates of ReturnExample: Your investment of $250 in Stock A is worth

$350 in two years while the investment of $100 in Stock B is worth $120 in six months. What are the annual HPRs and the HPYs on these two stocks?

1-10

• Stock A– Annual HPR=HPR1/n = ($350/$250)1/2 =1.1832– Annual HPY=Annual HPR-1=1.1832-1=18.32%

• Stock B– Annual HPR=HPR1/n = ($120/$100)1/0.5 =1.2544– Annual HPY=Annual HPR-1=1.2544-1=25.44%


Historical Rates of Return• Computing Mean Historical Returns

Suppose you have a set of annual rates of return (HPYs or HPRs) for an investment. How do you measure the mean annual return?

– Arithmetic Mean Return (AM)

AM= HPY / nwhere HPY=the sum of all the annual HPYs

n=number of years– Geometric Mean Return (GM)

GM= [ HPY] 1/n -1where HPR=the product of all the annual HPRs

n=number of years

1-11© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Historical Rates of ReturnSuppose you invested $100 three years ago and it is worth $110.40 today. The information below shows the annual ending values and HPR and HPY. This example illustrates the computation of the AM and the GM over a three-year period for an investment.

1-12

Year Beginning Ending HPR HPY Value Value

1 100 115.0 1.15 0.152 115 138.0 1.20 0.203 138 110.4 0.80 -0.20


Historical Rates of ReturnAM=[(0.15)+(0.20)+(-0.20)] / 3

= 0.15/3=5%GM=[(1.15) x (1.20) x (0.80)]1/3 – 1

=(1.104)1/3 -1=1.03353 -1 =3.353%


• Investors are typically concerned with long-term performance when comparing alternative investments. GM is considered a superior measure of the long-term mean rate of return because it indicates the compaound annual rate of return based on the ending value of the investment versus its beginning value. Specifically, using the prior example, if we compounded 3.353% for 3 years, (1.03353)3 , we would get an ending wealth value of 1.104.

© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.1-14


Year Beginning Ending HPR HPY Value Value

1 50 100 2.00 1.002 100 50 0.50 -0.50

Although the arithmetic average provides a good indication of the expected rate of return for an investment during a future individual year, it is biased upward if you are attempting to measure an asset’s long-term performance. This is obvious for a volatile security. Consider for a example, a security that increases in price $ 50 to $ 100 during year 1 and drops back to $50 during year 2. The annual HPYs would be :



• This would give an AM rate of return of :[(1.00)+(-0.50)]/2 = 0.50/2

= 0.25 = 25%• This investment brought no change in wealth and

therefore no return, yet the AM rate of the return is computed to be 25%.

• The GM rate of return would be :(2.00 x 0.50)1/2 - 1 = (1.00) 1/2 - 1

= 1.00 - 1 = 0%• This answer of a 0% rate of return accurately

measures the fact that there was no change in wealth from this investment over the two-year period



Comparison of AM and GM :• When rates of return are the same for all

years, the AM and the GM will be equal.• When rates of return are not the same for

all years, the AM will always be higher than the GM.

• While the AM is best used as an “expected value” for an individual year, while the GM is the best measure of an asset’s long-term performance.

Historical Rates of Return• A Portfolio of Investments

– Portfolio HPY: The mean historical rate of return for a portfolio of investments is measured as the weighted average of the HPYs for the individual investments in the portfolio, or the overall change in the value of the original portfolio.

– The weights used in the computation are the relative beginning market values for each investment, which is often referred to as dollar-weighted or value-weighted mean rate of return.

– See Exhibit 1.1


© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1-18

Exhibit 1.1


Expected Rates of Return• In previous examples, we discussed realized

historical rates of return. In contrast, an investor would be more interested in the expected return on a future risky investment.

• Risk refers to the uncertainty of the future outcomes of an investment– There are many possible returns/outcomes from an

investment due to the uncertainty– Probability is the likelihood of an outcome– The sum of the probabilities of all the possible

outcomes is equal to 1.0.

1-19


Expected Rates of Return• Computing Expected Rate of Return

where P i = Probability for possible return iR i = Possible return i

=

=n

i 1i Return) (Possible Return) ofy Probabilit( )E(R

)]R(P....))(R(P))(R[(P nn2211 =

1-20

=

=n

iii RP

1

))((


Expected Rates of Return• For example Perfect certainty allows only one

possible return, and the probability of receiving that return is 1.0. Few investment provide certain returns and would be considered risk-free investments. In the case of perfect certainty, there is only one value for PiRi :

E(Ri) = (1.0)(0.05) = 0.5 = 5%• Exhibit 1.2 illustrates this situation. Perfect

certainty allows only one possible returns and would be considered risk-free investments.

1-21


Probability Distributions

Exhibit 1.2Risk-free Investment

1-22

0.000.200.400.600.801.00

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%


Expected Rates of Return• In an alternative scenario, suppose an investor

believed an investment could provide several different rates of return depending on different possible economic condition

• As an example, in a strong economic environment with high corporate profits and little or no inflation, the investor might expect the rate of return on common stocks duirng the next year to reach as high as 20%.

1-23


Expected Rates of Return• In contrast, if theres is an economic decline with

higher-than average rate of inflation, the investor might expect the rate of return on common stocks during the next year to be -20%.

• Finally, with no major change in economic environment, the rate of return during the next year would probably approach the long-run average of 10%

• This set of potential outcomes can be visualized as shown in Exhibit 1.3

• This investor might estimate probabilities for each of these economic secarios based on past experience and current outlook as follows :

1-24


Expected Rates of Return

1-25

Economic Condition Probability Rate of return

Strong Economy, no inflation 0.15 0.20Weak Economy, above-average inflation 0.15 -0.20No major change in economy 0.70 0.10

• The computation of the expected rate of returnE(Ri) = [(0.15)(0.20)] +[(0.15)(-0.20)]+

[(0.70)(0.10)]E(Ri) = 0.07

• Obviously, the investor is less certain about the expected return from this investment that about the return from the prior investment with its single possible return



Exhibit 1.3Risky Investment with 3 Possible Returns

1-26

0.000.200.400.600.801.00

-30% -10% 10% 30%


Expected Rates of Return

1-27

• A third example is an investment with 10 possible outcomes ranging from -40% to 50% with the same probability for each rate of return.

• A graph of this set of ecpectation would appear in Exhibit 1.4

• The expected rate of return computation of the expected rate of return [E(Ri)] for this investment would be :E(Ri) =(0.10)(-0.40) +(0.10)(-0.30)+ (0.10)(-0.20) +(0.10)(0.10)+(0.10)(0.0)+(0.10)(0.10)+(0.10)(0.30)+(0.10)(0.40)+(0.10)(0.50)= 0.05



Exhibit 1.4 Risky investment with ten possible returns

1-28

0.000.200.400.600.801.00

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%


Risk of Expected Return

• Risk refers to the uncertainty of an investment; therefore the measure of risk should reflect the degree of the uncertainty.

• The risk of expected return reflect the degree of uncertainty that actual return will be different from the expect return.

• The common measures of risk are based on the variance of rates of return distribution of an investment

1-29



• Measuring the Risk of Expected Return– The Variance Measure

1-30

=

=

-=

-=

n

iiii

n

i

RERP

turnExpected

turnPossiblexobability

Variance

1

2

2

1

)]([

)ReRe

()(Pr

)(s

Risk of Expected Return– The Variance for the perfect-certainty (risk free) example

would be : σ = Σ Pi [Ri – E (Ri)]2

= 1.0 (0.05-0.05)2 = 1.0 (0/0) = 0- Note that in perfect certainty, there is no variance of return

becouse there is no deviation from expectation and, therefore, no risk or uncertainty The variance for the second example would be :σ 2 = Σ Pi [Ri – E (Ri)]2

– =[(0.15)(0.20-0.07)2 + (0.15)(-0.20-0.07)2 +(0/07)(0/10 -0/07) 2 = 0.0141– [(0.70)(0.10)]


n

i = 1

i= 1

n


– Standard Deviation (σ): It is the square root of the variance and measures the total risk

1-32

=

-=n

iiii RERP

1

2)]([s


=s 0.0141

s = 0.11874 = 11.874%


1-33

– Coefficient of Variation (CV): It measures the risk per unit of expected return and is a relative measure of risk.

)(RE

ReturnofRateExpectedReturnofDeviationStandardCV

s=

=


CV

= 1.696

=0.11874

0.07000


Risk of Historical Rates of Return

1-34

• This measure of relative variability and risk is used by financial analysts to compare alternative investments with widely different rates of return and standard deviation of returns. As an illustration, consider the following two investments :



1-35

• Comparing absolute 5% for measure of risk, investment B appears to be riskier because it has a standard deviation of 7% versus 5% for investment A

• In contrast, the CV figures show that investment B has less relative variability or lower risk per unit of epected return because it has a substantially higher expected rate of return :

CV A= 0.05 = 0.714 0.07

CV B = 0.07 = 0.583 0.12



where, σ 2 = the variance of the series HPY i = the holding period yield during period iE(HPY) = the expected value of the HPY equal

to the arithmetic mean of the series (AM) n = the number of observations

1-36

n/HPY)](EHPY[ 2n

1ii

2

-=

=

s

• Given a series of historical returns measured by HPY, the risk of returns is measured as:


Determinants of Required Returns• Three Components of Required Return:

– The time value of money during the time period– The expected rate of inflation during the period– The risk involved– See Exhibit 1.5

• Complications of Estimating Required Return– A wide range of rates is available for alternative

investments at any time.– The rates of return on specific assets change

dramatically over time.– The difference between the rates available on

different assets change over time.

1-37


Determinants of Required Returns• The Real Risk Free Rate (RRFR)

– Assumes no inflation.– Assumes no uncertainty about future cash flows.– Influenced by time preference for consumption of

income and investment opportunities in the economy

• Nominal Risk-Free Rate (NRFR)– Conditions in the capital market– Expected rate of inflation

NRFR=(1+RRFR) x (1+ Rate of Inflation) - 1RRFR=[(1+NRFR) / (1+ Rate of Inflation)] - 1

1-38


Determinants of Required Returns• Business Risk

– Uncertainty of income flows caused by the nature of a firm’s business

– Sales volatility and operating leverage determine the level of business risk.

– As an example, a retail food company would typically experience stable sales and earnings growth over time and would have how low business risk compared to a firm in the auto or airlne industry, where sales and earnings fluctuate substantially over the business cycle, implying high business risk.

1-39


Determinants of Required Returns• Financial Risk

– Uncertainty caused by the use of debt financing.

– Borrowing requires fixed payments which must be paid ahead of payments to stockholders.

– The use of debt increases uncertainty of stockholder income and causes an increase in the stock’s risk premium.

1-40


Determinants of Required Returns• Liquidity Risk

– How long will it take to convert an investment into cash?

– How certain is the price that will be received?– A US Government Treasury bill has almost no

liquidity risk becuse it can be bought or sold in seconds at a price almost identical to the quoted price.

– In contrast, example of illiquid investments include a work of art, an antique, or a parcel of real estate in a remote area.

1-41


Determinants of Required Returns• Exchange Rate Risk

– Uncertainty of return is introduced by acquiring securities denominated in a currency different from that of the investor.

– Changes in exchange rates affect the investors return when converting an investment back into the “home” currency.

– A US investor who buys Japanese stock denominated in yen must consider not only the uncertainty of the return in yen but also any

1-42


Determinants of Required Returns• Country Risk

– Political risk is the uncertainty of returns caused by the possibility of a major change in the political or economic environment in a country.

– Individuals who invest in countries that have unstable political-economic systems must include a country risk-premium when determining their required rate of return.

– When investing globally (which is emphasized throughout

1-43


Determinants of Required Returns• Risk Premium and Portfolio Theory

– From a portfolio theory perspective, the relevant risk measure for an individual asset is its co-movement with the market portfolio.

– Systematic risk relates the variance of the investment to the variance of the market.

– Beta measures this systematic risk of an asset.– According to the portfolio theory, the risk premium

depends on the systematic risk.

1-44


Determinants of Required Returns• Fundamental Risk versus Systematic Risk

– Fundamental risk comprises business risk, financial risk, liquidity risk, exchange rate risk, and country risk.

Risk Premium= f ( Business Risk, Financial Risk, Liquidity Risk, Exchange Rate

Risk, Country Risk)– Systematic risk refers to the portion of an individual

asset’s total variance attributable to the variability of the total market portfolio.

Risk Premium= f (Systematic Market Risk)

1-45

Relationship Between Risk and Return• The Security Market Line (SML)

– It shows the relationship between risk and return for all risky assets in the capital market at a given time.

– Investors select investments that are consistent with their risk preferences.

1-46

ExpectedReturn

Risk(business risk, etc., or systematic risk-beta)

NRFR

SecurityMarket LineLow

RiskAverageRisk

HighRisk

The slope indicates therequired return per unit of risk


Relationship Between Risk and Return• Movement along the SML

– When the risk changes, the expected return will also change, moving along the SML.

– Risk premium: RPI = E(Ri) - NRFR

1-47

Return

Risk(business risk, etc., or systematic risk-beta)

NRFR

SML

Expected

Movements along the curvethat reflect changes in therisk of the asset



Exhibit 1.9

1-48

Relationship Between Risk and Return• Changes in the Slope of the SML

– When there is a change in the attitude of investors toward risk, the slope of the SML will also change.

– If investors become more risk averse, then the SML will have a steeper slope, indicating a higher risk premium, RPi, for the same risk level.

1-49Risk

NRFR

Original SML

New SML

R m

R m’

Expected Return


Relationship Between Risk and Return• Changes in Market Condition or Inflation

– A change in the RRFR or the expected rate of inflation will cause a parallel shift in the SML.

– When nominal risk-free rate increases, the SML will shift up, implying a higher rate of return while still having the same risk premium.

RiskNRFR

Original SML

New SMLExpected Return

NRFR'


1-50


The Internet Investments Online• http://www.finpipe.com• http://www.investorguide.com• http://www.aaii.com• http://www.economist.com• http://online.wsj.com• http://www.forbes.com• http://www.barrons.com• http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/journal/jofsites.htm• http://www.ft.com• http://www.fortune.com• http://www.smartmoney.com• http://www.worth.com• http://money.cnn.com

1-51

http://www.finpipe.com/

http://www.investorguide.com/

http://www.aaii.com/

http://www.economist.com/

http://online.wsj.com/

http://www.forbes.com/

http://www.barrons.com/

http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/journal/jofsites.htm

http://www.ft.com/

http://www.fortune.com/

http://www.smartmoney.com/

http://www.worth.com/

http://money.cnn.com/

THANK YOU

overview of the investment process

Documents