overview of the macedonian economy u.s. embassy skopje

Overview of the Macedonian Overview of the Macedonian EconomyEconomy

U.S. Embassy SkopjeU.S. Embassy Skopje

Important eventsImportant events• September 8th, 1991, a referendum on sovereignty and

independence

• November 17th, 1991, Constitution was adopted

• April 26th, 1992, monetary independence and introduction of new national currency - Denar

• April 8th, 1993, Macedonia became the 181st member of the UN

• April 1993, Macedonia became a member of the World Bank and the IMF

• April 4th, 2003, Macedonia became a member of the WTO

• November 2005, Macedonia became candidate country for membership in the EU

DemographyDemography

• Total area: 25,713 square km

• Total population: 2.0 million

• Growth rate: 0.4%

• Rural: 40.2%

• Urban: 59.8%

Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia

Ethnic compositionEthnic composition

Source: Census 2002, State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia

64.18%

2.36%

25.17%

2.66%1.78%

3.85%

Macedonians

Albanians

Turks

Roma

Serbs

Others

Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (in %)(in %)1998 3.4%

1999 4.3%

2000 4.5%

2001 -4.5%

2002 0.9%

2003 2.8%

2004 4.1%

2005 4.1%

2006 4.0%

2007 5.9%

2008 4.8%

2009 -0.7%

2010 2%

(projection)

Kosovo crisis

Ethnic conflict


World economic crisis

GDP per capita in US$GDP per capita in US$1997 1,732

1998 1,783

1999 1,821

2000 1,771

2001 1,689

2002 1,866

2003 2,285

2004 2,641

2005 2,855

2006 3,124

2007 3,876

2008 4,648 2009 4,261


Main componentsMain componentsof GDP in 2009of GDP in 2009

Mining, quarrying, manufacturing and electricity, gas and water supply

Public administration, defense, education, health and social work

Financial intermediation, real estate, renting and business activities

Trade (wholesale and retail)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Transport and communication

Construction

19.0

17.0

4.9

10.2

12.2

16.8

8.4


Industrial outputIndustrial output(average rate = period / last year’s period)

---- projected


Industrial output by branchesIndustrial output by branches(pct. change)(pct. change)


StructureI-II '10 I-II '09

I-II '10 I-II '09

Total 100.00 91.7 -8.3Processing industry 83.94 84.9 -15.1Food and beverages production 16.05 101.7 1.7Production of basic metals 11.24 154.0 54.0Production of wearing apparel, dressing and fur dyeing 11.07 83.1 -16.9Production of other non-metallic minerals 7.27 81.2 -18.8Tobacco industry 5.71 140.9 40.9Production of chemicals and chemical products 4.63 88.3 -11.7Production of coke, oil derivatives and nuclear fuel 4.45 70.4 -29.6Production of electrical appliances and machines 3.47 38.1 -61.9Production of fabricated metal products, except machinery 3.25 36.7 -63.3Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media 3.12 47.7 -52.3Production of furniture and other products 2.01 79.5 -20.5Production of rubber products and plastics 1.93 58.9 -41.1Textile industry 1.72 74.4 -25.6Electricity, gas and water supply 12.21 123.3 23.3

Mining and quarrying 3.85 105.8 5.8

Foreign tradeForeign trade(in million US$)(in million US$)

Projected

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Foreign tradeForeign trade(in % change = period / last year’s period)(in % change = period / last year’s period)

* projected


Trade balanceTrade balance

---- projected


Top trading partnersTop trading partners(at the end of February 2010, in percent of total)(at the end of February 2010, in percent of total)

• Exports

1. Germany = 21.6%

2. Kosovo = 12.9%

3. Bulgaria = 10.9%

4. Greece = 8.2%

5. Italy = 6.7%

6. Serbia = 6.6%

7. Belgium = 5.0%

• Imports

1. Russia = 15.9%

2. Germany = 9.7%

3. Serbia = 7.7%

4. Greece = 7.5%

5. Italy = 6.0%

6. China = 5.6%

7. Turkey = 4.6%Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Trade with the USATrade with the USA(on cumulative basis, in million US$)(on cumulative basis, in million US$)


Current account balanceCurrent account balance

projected


Foreign Direct InvestmentForeign Direct Investment(in million US$)(in million US$)

2000

215.7

2001

446.3

2002

105.5

2003

117.5

2004

321.9

2005

94.2

2006

423.9

2007

699.0

2008

598.6

2009

247.9

Jan. ‘10

33.8


Budget revenues and expendituresBudget revenues and expenditures(in million Denar)(in million Denar)

Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia

Budget balanceBudget balance(as % of GDP)(as % of GDP)

--- projected


Fiscal performance Fiscal performance (March 2010, in million denars)(March 2010, in million denars)


January - March Index January - March 20102009 2010 2010/2009 % share % of plan

Total Budget revenues 31,298 29,525 94.3 100.0 20.61. Primary revenues 21,487 19,671 91.5 66.6 20.6 A. Tax revenues 17,327 16,009 92.4 54.2 20.8 - personal income tax 2,029 2,111 104.0 7.1 21.8 - profits tax 1,996 879 44.0 3.0 19.5 - VAT 8,175 8,204 100.4 27.8 21.7 - excises 3,124 3,140 100.5 10.6 20.0 - import duties 1,304 953 73.1 3.2 15.5 B. Non-tax revenues 4,160 3,662 88.0 12.4 20.02. Capital revenues 414 340 82.1 1.2 8.93. Foreign donations 114 200 175.4 0.7 7.2Total Budget expenditures 33,231 33,624 101.2 100.0 21.91. Current expenditures 30,639 30,396 99.2 90.4 23.2 - wages, salaries and allowances 5,570 5,751 103.2 17.1 25.2 - goods and services 3,757 3,723 99.1 11.1 22.0 - transfers 20,809 20,699 99.5 61.6 23.6 - interest 503 223 44.3 0.7 6.22. Capital expenditures 2,592 3,228 124.5 9.6 14.1Financing 1,933 4,099 212.11. Borrowing from abroad 185 180 97.32. Privatization receipts 0 0 0.03. Domestic borrowing 5,424 -78 …4. Deposits -2,751 4,541 …5. Repayment of principal (outflow) 975 545 55.9

Nominal Weighted Interest RatesNominal Weighted Interest Rates


Foreign exchange reservesForeign exchange reserves(in million US$)(in million US$) Dec.1998

333.5

Dec.1999 458.4

Dec.2000

713.6

Dec.2001 775.2

Dec.2002

734.5

Dec.2003 903.4

Dec.2004

985.7

Dec.2005 1,331.1

Dec.2006

1,871.0 Dec.2007

2,219.2

Dec.2008 2,106.2

Dec.2009

2,289.8

Mar.2010 2,167.7


InflationInflation(average rate = period / last year’s period)

* projected


Wages and consumers’ basketWages and consumers’ basket(in US$)(in US$)

3.3% of employees have not received wage in February 2010


Unemployment Unemployment (in percent)(in percent)

Source: Labor Force Survey (State Statistical Office)

- 28.7% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2008

- “gray economy” is estimated between 15% and 40% of GDP

External DebtExternal Debt


ChallengesChallenges

• Restore sustainable economic growth • Respect property rights and enforce the rule of law • Judiciary reform• Continue reforms in the Cadastre• Public administration reform• Improve the business climate • Attract more FDI• Continue battle against corruption, improve

governance, reduce “gray economy”• EU and NATO accession

overview of the macedonian economy u.s. embassy skopje

Documents

republic of macedonia

eu slide

national bank

change source

state statistical office

embassy skopje slide

ethnic composition source

world bank