overview & outlook for the commercial p&c insurance industry insurance information institute...
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Overview & Outlook for the Commercial P&C Insurance
IndustryInsurance Information Institute
August 12, 2015
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & EconomistInsurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038
Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org
2
Insurance Industry:Financial Update & Outlook
2014 Was a Reasonably Good Year2015: A Repeat of 2014?
2
P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes1991–2015:Q1 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS1 = 5.9% 2013 ROAS1 = 10.2% 2014 ROAS1 = 8.4% 2015:Q1 ROAS = 10.8%
• ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in 2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.
Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$1
4,1
78
$5
,84
0
$1
9,3
16
$1
0,8
70
$2
0,5
98
$2
4,4
04 $3
6,8
19
$3
0,7
73
$2
1,8
65
$3
,04
6
$3
0,0
29
$6
2,4
96
$3
,04
3
$3
5,2
04
$1
9,4
56 $
33
,52
2
$6
3,7
84
$5
5,5
01
$1
8,1
72
$3
8,5
01
$2
0,5
59
$4
4,1
55
$6
5,7
77
-$6,970
$2
8,6
72
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
15:Q
1
Net income fell modestly
(-12.5%) in 2014 vs. 2013
$ Millions
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
:Q1
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2015:Q1
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-14 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best, Conning
1977:19.0%1987:17.3%
1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years
9 Years
History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013 9.8%
2014 8.2%
2015:Q1 10.8%
5
ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance by Major Event, 1987–2015:Q1
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2014. Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1415:Q1
P/C Profitability Is Both by Cyclicality and Ordinary Volatility
Hugo
Andrew
Northridge
Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years
Sept. 11
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
4 Hurricanes
Financial Crisis*
(Percent)
Record Tornado Losses
Sandy
Low CATs
Modestly higher CATs
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
14E
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-14 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0%
1987:17.3%
1997:11.6%
2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8%
1992: 4.5%2001: -1.2%
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013 9.8%
2014 8.2%
Back to the Future: Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1950 – 2014*
1969: 3.9%
1965: 2.2%1957: 1.8%
1972:13.7%
1966-67: 5.5%1959:6.8%
1950:8.0%
1950-70: ROEs were lower in this period. Low interest rates,
low inflation, “Bureau” rate regulation all played a role
1970-90: Peak ROEs were much higher in this period while troughs
were comparable. High interest rates, rapid inflation, economic
volatility all played roles
1990-2010s: Déjà vu. Excluding mega-
CATs, this period is very similar to the 1950-1970 period
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Note: Data through 1934 are based on stock companies only. Data include state funds beginning in 1998.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Economic Shocks, Inflation:
1976: 22.0%
Tort Crisis1985/86: 22.2%
Post-9/112002:15.3%
Twin Recessions; Interest Rate
Hikes1987: 3.7% Great
Recession:2010: -4.9%
ROE
2014 4.1%
NPW Premium Growth: Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1926 – 2014
Great Depression1932: -15.9% max drop
Post WW II Peak:1947: 26.2%
Start of WW II1941: 15.8%
1950-70: Extended period of stability in growth and
profitability. Low interest rates, low inflation, “Bureau”
rate regulation all played a role
1970-90: Peak premium growth was much higher in this period while troughs were comparable. Rapid inflation, economic
volatility, high interest rates, tort environment all played roles
1988-2000: Period of
inter-cycle stability
2010-20XX? Post-
recession period of
stable growth?
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Economic Shocks, Inflation:
1976: 22.2%Tort Crisis
1986: 30.5%
Post-9/112002: 22.4%
Great Recession:2009: -9.0%
ROE
2014E 4.0%
Commercial Lines NPW Premium Growth:1975 – 2014E
Recessions:1982: 1.1%
Commercial lines is prone to more cyclical volatility that personal
lines. Recently, growth has stabilized in the 4% to 5% range.
1988-2000: Period of
inter-cycle stability
2010-20XX? Post-
recession period of
stable growth?
Note: Data include state funds beginning in 1998.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Post-Hurricane Andrew Bump:
1993: 6.3%
Post Katrina Bump:
2006: 7.7%
9
P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2015:Q1*
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2014. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.
95.7
99.3100.8
106.3
102.4
96.7 97.296.0
101.0
92.6
100.898.4
100.1
107.5
115.8
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15:Q1
As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out
Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned
Premiums Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net
Losses
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Higher CAT
Losses, Shrinking Reserve
Releases, Toll of Soft
Market
Cyclical Deterioration
Sandy Impacts
Lower CAT
Losses
Best Combined
Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)
Avg. CAT Losses,
More Reserve Releases
A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: Investment Impact on ROEs
Combined Ratio / ROE
* 2008 -2014 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2014 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 97.0; 2013 = 96.1; 2012 =103.2, 2011 = 108.1, ROAS = 3.5%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO Verisk Analytics data.
97.5
100.6 100.1 100.8
92.7
101.299.5
101.0
96.7 97.295.7
102.4
106.5
95.7
14.3%
15.9%
12.7%
10.9%
7.4% 7.9%
4.7%6.2%
10.8%
8.2%9.6%
8.8%
4.3%
9.8%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1978 1979 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015:Q10%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Combined Ratio ROE*
Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s DepressedInvestment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs
A combined ratio of about 100 generates an ROE of ~7.0% in 2012/13, ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10,
10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979
Lower CATs helped ROEs in 2013-15:Q1
11
Return on Net Worth (RNW) All Lines:2004-2013 Average
25
.6
18
.4
13
.4
13
.2
9.2
8.9
7.9
7.8
7.1
7.1
6.6
4.9
-1.0
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Fire
Inla
nd Mar
ine
All O
ther
Med
ical
Pro
f Lia
bility
Comm
Auto
Tota
l
Comm
erci
al MP
All Lin
es
Oth
er L
iabili
ty
Work
ers
Comp
PP Auto
Tota
l
Homeow
ners
MP
Farmow
ners
MP
Allied L
ines
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Commercial lines have tended to be more profitable than
personal lines over the past decade
12
RNW All Lines by State, 2004-2013 Average:Highest 25 States
20
.5
18
.4
14
.6
14
.3
13
.4
13
.3
12
.3
12
.1
12
.0
12
.0
11
.7
11
.4
11
.1
11
.1
10
.9
10
.8
10
.7
10
.7
10
.5
10
.5
10
.3
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.6
9.5
02468
1012141618202224
HI AK VT ME WY ND VA ID NH UT WA SC MA NC OH DC CA OR RI WV CT IA NE SD MT MD
The most profitable states over the past decade are
widely distributed geographically, though none
are in the Gulf region
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Profitability Benchmark: All P/C
US: 7.9%
13
9.2
8.6
8.4
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.0
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.4
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.1
5.7
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.3
2.5
1.9
-6.9
-9.3
-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468
10
NM FL TX WI KS MN CO PA US AR IL IN AZ MO KY TN NV NJ GA NY DE MI AL OK MS LA
RNW All Lines by State, 2004-2013 Average: Lowest 25 States
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Some of the least profitable states over the past decade were hit hard
by catastrophes
Source: A.M. Best; Barclays research for estimates.
Reserve Change
P/C Insurance Loss Reserve Development, 1992 – 2016E*
Reserve releases are expected to gradually taper off, but will
continue to benefit the bottom line and combined ratio through
at least 2016
INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY
15
Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability
Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing
15
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–2015E1
$38.9$37.1 $36.7
$38.7
$54.6
$51.2
$47.1 $47.6$49.2
$48.0 $47.3$46.2 $46.7
$39.6
$49.5
$52.3
$30
$40
$50
$60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E
Due to persistently low interest rates,investment income fell in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends. *2015 figure is estimated based on annualized data through Q1.Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
($ Billions) Investment earnings are still below their 2007 pre-crisis peak
Distribution of Invested Assets: P/C Insurance Industry, 2013
Stocks, 22%
Bonds, 62%All Other, 10%
Cash, Cash Equiv. & ST Investments, 6%
Source: Insurance Information Institute Fact Book 2015, A.M. Best.
Total Invested Assets = $1.5
Trillion
$ Billions
18
U.S. Treasury Security Yields:A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2015*
*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through July 2015.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Recession2-Yr Yield10-Yr Yield
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade.
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
U.S. Treasury yields plunged to historic lows in 2013. Longer-
term yields rebounded then sank fell again.
18
Book Yield on Property/Casualty Insurance Invested Assets, 2007–2015*
4.38
4.174.02
3.87
3.63 3.643.74
3.82
3.44
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*
The yield on invested assets remains low relative to pre-crisis yields. The Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in late 2015 has already pushed up some yields, albeit quite modestly.
*2015 figure is the average of the four quarters ending in 2015:Q1.Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute
(Percent) Book yield in 2015 is down 74 BP from pre-crisis levels
CAPITAL/CAPACITY
28
Capital Accumulation Has Multiple Impacts
28
29
Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2015:Q1
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.
($ Billions)
$487
.1
$496
.6
$512
.8
$521
.8
$478
.5
$455
.6
$437
.1 $463
.0 $490
.8 $511
.5 $540
.7
$530
.5
$544
.8
$559
.2
$559
.1
$538
.6
$550
.3
$567
.8
$583
.5
$586
.9 $607
.7
$614
.0
$624
.4 $653
.4
$671
.6
$673
.9
$674
.7
$671
.7
$662
.0
$570
.7
$566
.5
$505
.0
$515
.6
$517
.9
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
06:Q
4
07:Q
1
07:Q
2
07:Q
3
07:Q
4
08:Q
1
08:Q
2
08:Q
3
08:Q
4
09:Q
1
09:Q
2
09:Q
3
09:Q
4
10:Q
1
10:Q
2
10:Q
3
10:Q
4
11:Q
1
11:Q
2
11:Q
3
11:Q
4
12:Q
1
12:Q
2
12:Q
3
12:Q
4
13:Q
1
13:Q
2
13:Q
3
13:Q
4
14:Q
1
14:Q
2
14:Q
3
14:Q
4
15:Q
1
2007:Q3Pre-Crisis Peak
Surplus as of 3/31/15 stood at a near-record high $671.7B
2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business .
The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.73 of NPW,close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history.
Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses
The P/C insurance industry entered 2015in very strong financial condition.
US P/C Insurance Industry Excess Capital Position: 1994–2016E
Source: Barclays Research estimates.
Su
rplu
s R
edu
nd
ancy
(D
efic
ien
cy)
The Industry’s Strong Capital Position Suggests Insurers Are in a Good Position to Increase Risk Appetite, Repurchase Shares
and Pursue Acquisitions
Per
cen
t R
ed
un
dan
cy (
Def
icie
ncy
)
Barclay’s suggests that surplus is approximately
$200B (~30%)
34
Alternative Capital
34
New Investors Continue to Change the Reinsurance Landscape
First I.I.I. White Paper on Issue Was Released in March 2015
Global Reinsurance Capital (Traditional and Alternative), 2006 - 2014
2014 data is as of June 30, 2014.Source: Aon Benfield Analytics; Insurance Information Institute.
Total reinsurance capital reached a record $570B in 2013, up 68% from
2008.
But alternative capacity has grown 210% since 2008, to $50B. It has more than doubled in the past three years.
Alternative Capital as a Percentage of Traditional Global Reinsurance Capital
2014 data is as of June 30, 2014.Source: Aon Benfield Analytics; Insurance Information Institute.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
4.6%5.7% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4%
6.5%
8.4%
10.2%
11.5%
Alternative Capital’s Share of Global Reinsurance Capital Has More Than Doubled Since 2010.
Growth of Alternative Capital Structures, 2002 - 2014
2014 data is as of June 30, 2014.Source: Aon Benfield Analytics; Insurance Information Institute.
Collateralized Re’s Growth Has Accelerated in the Past Three Years.
Collateralized Reinsurance and Catastrophe Bonds Currently Dominate the Alternative Capital Market.
Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Outstanding: 1997-2015:Q1
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
948.2
874.2
1,062.5
1,142.0
966.9
989.5
1,988.2
1,142.8
1,499.0
4,614.7
7,187.0
3,009.9
3,396.0
4,599.9
4,107.1
5,855.3
7,083.0
8,026.7
1,490.0
4289
5085
7677
13416.4
12538.6
12508.2
12195.7
12342.8
14839.3
18576.9
22867.8
20813.4
New Issuance Outstanding
38
Risk Capital Amount ($ Millions)
2014 Has Seen the Largest Cat Bond Ever - $1.5 Billion (Florida Citizens). Bond Issuance Set a Record.
Source: Guy Carpenter.
43
Performance by Segment
43
10
9.4
11
0.2
11
8.8
10
9.5 1
12
.5
11
0.2
10
7.6
10
4.1
10
9.7
11
0.2
10
2.5 1
05
.4
91
.1
93
.6
10
4.2
98
.9
10
2.4
10
7.9
10
3.4
95
.2
95
.5
98
.1 99
.5 10
0.8
10
2.0
11
1.1
11
2.3
12
2.3
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
E
15
F
16
F
17
F
Co
mm
erc
ial L
ine
s C
om
bin
ed
Ra
tio
*2007-2012 figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments.Source: A.M. Best (1990-2014E); Conning (2015-17F) Insurance Information Institute.
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2017F*
Commercial lines underwriting performance is expected to
improved in 2013/14 but higher cats, diminishing prior year
reserves an rising loss cost trends in some lines could push combined ratios higher
44
Commercial Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2015F
11
2.1
11
2.0
11
3.0
11
5.9
10
2.7
95
.2
92
.9
92
.1
92
.4
94
.1 96
.8 99
.1
97
.8
10
3.4 10
6.8
10
6.5
10
3.0
10
5.2
11
8.1
11
5.7
11
6.2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
Commercial Auto is Expected to Improve Only Slowly as Rate Gains Barely Offset Adverse Frequency and Severity Trends
45Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2014E);Conning (2015F); Insurance Information Institute.
Commercial Property Combined Ratio: 2007–2016F
72.4
105.
8
83.3 86
.5
85.4 89
.4
90.1
106.
5
105.
8
82.7
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F 16F
Commercial Property Underwriting Performance Has Been Volatile in Recent Years, Largely Due to
Fluctuations in CAT Activity
Source: Conning Research and Consulting. 46
General Liability Combined Ratio: 2005–2015F
112.
9
95.1 99
.0
94.2
104.
1
101.
4
103.
0
103.
9107.
1 110.
8
99.8
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F
Commercial General Liability Underwriting Performance Has Been Volatile in Recent Years
Source: Conning Research and Consulting. 47
Workers Compensation Combined Ratio: 1994–2014P
102.
0
97.0 10
0.0
101.
0
112.
6
108.
6
105.
1
102.
7
98.5
103.
5
104.
5 110.
6 115.
0
115.
0
108.
0
101.
0
98.0
121.
7
107.
0
115.
3
118.
2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14P
Workers Comp Results Began to Improve in 2012. Underwriting Results Deteriorated Markedly from 2007-
2010/11 and Were the Worst They Had Been in a Decade. Sources: A.M. Best (1994-2009); NCCI (2010-2014P) and are for private carriers only; Insurance Information Institute. 48
WC results have improved markedly
since 2011
Commercial Multi-Peril Combined Ratio: 1995–2015F
119.
0
119.
8
108.
5
125.
0
116.
2
116.
1
104.
9
101.
9
105.
5
95.4 97
.6
94.2 96
.1
102.
1
94.1
103.
8
100.
7
116.
8
113.
6
115.
3 122.
4
115.
0
117.
0
97.3
89.0
97.7
93.8
83.8
89.8
108.
4
98.7 10
2.5
120.
1
111.
9
93.4 98
.9 101.
4
113.
1
115.
0 121.
0
80
85
90
95
100105
110
115
120
125
130
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
CMP-Liability CMP-Non-Liability
Commercial Multi-Peril Underwriting Performance is Expected to Improve in 2013 Assuming Normal Catastrophe Loss Activity
*2014E-2015F figures are Conning figures for the combined liability and non-liability components..Sources: A.M. Best; Conning; Insurance Information Institute. 49
Inland Marine Combined Ratio: 2004–2015F
82.5
89.9
77.3 79
.5
97.1
96.1
83.7
87.2 89
.5
93.3
89.3
86.2
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
Inland Marine Underwriting Performance Has Been Consistently Strong for Many Years
Source: A.M. Best (2004-2014E); Conning Research and Consulting (2015F). 50
Workers Compensation Operating Environment
51
Workers Comp Results Have Improved Substantially in Recent Years
51
52
Nonfarm Payroll (Wages and Salaries):Quarterly, 2005–2015:Q1
Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates.Sources: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
Billions
$5,500
$5,750
$6,000
$6,250
$6,500
$6,750
$7,000
$7,250
$7,500
$7,75005
:Q1
05:Q
205
:Q3
05:Q
406
:Q1
06:Q
206
:Q3
06:Q
407
:Q1
07:Q
207
:Q3
07:Q
408
:Q1
08:Q
208
:Q3
08:Q
409
:Q1
09:Q
209
:Q3
09:Q
410
:Q1
10:Q
210
:Q3
10:Q
411
:Q1
11:Q
211
:Q3
11:Q
412
:Q1
12:Q
212
:Q3
12:Q
413
:Q1
13:Q
213
:Q3
13:Q
414
:Q1
14:Q
214
:Q3
14:Q
415
:Q1
Prior Peak was 2008:Q3 at $6.54 trillion
Recent trough (2009:Q1) was $6.23 trillion, down
5.3% from prior peak
Growth rates2011:Q1 over 2010:Q1: 5.5%2012:Q1 over 2011:Q1: 4.2%2013:Q1 over 2012:Q1: 2.5%2014:Q1 over 2013:Q1: 4.3%2015:Q1 over 2014:Q1: 4.4%
52
Latest (2015:Q1) was $7.66 trillion, a new peak--$1.34 trillion above 2009 trough
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50Wage & Salary DisbursementsWC NPW
53
Payroll Base* WC NWP
Payroll vs. Workers Comp Net Written Premiums, 1990-2014P
*Private employment; Shaded areas indicate recessions. WC premiums for 2014 are from NCCI.Sources: NBER (recessions); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR ; NCCI; I.I.I.
Continued Payroll Growth and Rate Gains Suggest WC NWP Will Grow Again in 2015
7/90-3/91 3/01-11/0112/07-6/09
$Billions $Billions
WC premium volume dropped two years before
the recession began
WC net premiums written were down $14B or 29.3% to
$33.8B in 2010 after peaking at $47.8B
in 2005
Workers Compensation Premium: Fourth Consecutive Year of IncreaseNet Written Premium
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14P0
10
20
30
40
50
31.0 31.3 29.8 30.5 29.126.3 25.2 24.2 23.3 22.3
25.0 26.129.2 31.1
34.737.8 38.6 37.6
33.830.3 29.9
32.335.1 36.9 38.5
35.3 35.734.3 35.4
33.6
30.128.5
26.9 25.9 25.0
28.6
32.1
37.7
42.3
46.547.8
46.544.3
39.3
34.6 33.836.4
39.541.8
44.2
State Funds ($ B)
Private Carriers ($ B)
Pvt. Carrier NWP growth was +4.3% in 2014, +5.1% in 2013 and 8.7% in 2012
$ Billions
Calendar Yearp Preliminary
Source: NCCI from Annual Statement Data.Includes state insurance fund data for the following states: AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MD, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, UT.Each calendar year total for State Funds includes all funds operating as a state fund that year.
56
2014 Workers Compensation Direct Written Premium Growth, by State*
PRIVATE CARRIERS: Overall 2014 Growth = +4.6%
*Excludes monopolistic fund states (in gray): OH, ND, WA and WY.Source: NCCI.
While growth rates varied widely, most states experienced positive growth in
2014
58
Workers Compensation Components of Written Premium Change, 2013 to 2014
Written Premium Change from 2013 to 2014
Net Written Premium—Countrywide +4.6%
Direct Written Premium—Countrywide +4.6%
Direct Written Premium—NCCI States +4.5%
Components of DWP Change for NCCI States
Change in Carrier Estimated Payroll +4.7%
Change in Bureau Loss Costs and Mix -1.4%
Change in Carrier Discounting +0.4%
Change in Other Factors +0.8%
Combined Effect +4.5%
Sources: Countrywide: Annual Statement data.NCCI States: Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services.Components: NCCI Policy data.
Growth is now almost entirely payroll driven
WC Approved Changes in Bureau Premium Level (Rates/Loss Costs)
12.1
7.4
10.0
2.9
-6.4
-3.2
-6.0
-8.0
-5.4
-2.6
3.5
1.2
4.9
6.6
-6.0 -6.5
-8.8-7.8
-3.2-2.1
-1.2
0.4
8.4
2.2
0.5
-2.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15p
Percent
Calendar Year
Cumulative1990–1993
+36.3%
Cumulative 2000–2003
+17.1%
Cumulative 2004–2011
-30.8%
Cumulative 1994–1999
-27.8%
*States approved through 4/24/15.Note: Bureau premium level changes are countrywide approved changes in advisory rates, loss costs and assigned risk rates as filed by applicable rating organization, relative to those previously approved.Source: NCCI.
By Effective Date for Total Market
Approved rates/loss costs are down for the first time since 2010
Cumulative 2011–2014
+11.8%
60
WC Approved or Filed and Pending Change in NCCI Premium Level by State
Latest Change for Voluntary Market
*Excludes monopolistic fund states (in gray): OH, ND, WA and WY.Source: NCCI.
While growth rates varied widely, most states experienced positive growth in
2014
Workers Compensation Lost-Time Claim Frequency Declined in 2014
62
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14p-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4.4
-9.2
0.3
-6.5
-4.5
0.5
-3.9
-2.3
-4.5
-6.9
-4.5 -4.1 -3.7
-6.6
-4.5
-2.2
-4.3-4.9
10.6
-3.8
-6
-2.9-2.0
3.6
-0.8
Adjusted*Indicated
Frequency Change: 2007—2012
Contracting: 7.97.1 -9.3%
Manufacturing: 13.612.0 -11.8%
Percent
Accident Year*Adjustments primarily due to significant audit activity.2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014.Source: NCCI Financial Call data, developed to ultimate and adjusted to current wage an voluntary loss cost level; Excludes high deductible policies; 1994-2013: Based on data through 12/31/13. Data for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding WV.Frequency is the number of lost-time claims per $1M pure premium at current wage and voluntary loss cost level
Cumulative Change of –51.1%(1994–2013 adj.)
$9
.8
$9
.5
$9
.2
$9
.7
$9
.8
$1
0.4
$1
1.2
$1
2.2
$1
3.5
$1
4.8
$1
6.1
$1
6.6
$1
7.4
$2
2.3
$2
2.5
$2
2.2
$2
2.2
$2
2.6
$2
3.6
$1
8.1
$1
7.5
$1
9.2
$2
0.8
$2
1.9
+0.0%-2.5%
+1.0%+9.1% +1.3%
+5.9%+3.1%
+1.0%+4.6%+3.1%+9.2%
+10.1%
+10.1%
+9.0%+7.7%
+5.9%+1.7%+4.9%
-2.8%-3.1%+1.0%
+6.6%
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14p
IndemnityClaim Cost ($ 000s)
Accident Year
Workers Comp Indemnity Claim Costs: Modest Increase in 2014
Average indemnity costs per claim were up 4% in
2014 to $23,600, the largest increase since 2008
Average Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim
+4%+1.9%
Cumulative Change = 141%(1991-2014p)
2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014.1991-2013: Based on data through 12/31/2013, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high deductible policies.
Workers Compensation Medical Severity:Moderate Increase in 2014
65
Accident Year
Annual Change 1991–1993: +1.9%Annual Change 1994–2001: +8.9%Annual Change 2002–2010: +6.0%
Average Medical Cost per Lost-Time ClaimMedical
Claim Cost ($000s)
$8
.1
$8
.2
$8
.1
$8
.8
$9
.1
$9
.8
$1
0.8
$11
.7
$1
2.9
$1
3.9
$1
5.7
$1
7.1
$1
8.4
$1
9.4
$2
0.9
$2
2.1
$2
3.4
$2
5.0
$2
6.0
$2
6.1
$2
6.8
$2
7.4
$2
8.3
$2
9.4
+6.8%+1.3%-2.1%+9.0%+5.1%
+7.4%+10.1%
+8.3%+10.6%
+7.3%
+13.5%
+8.8%+7.7%
+5.4%
+7.8%+5.8%
+5.9%
+6.9%+4.0%+0.5%
+2.4%+2.4%
+3.2%+4%
5
10
15
20
25
30
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14p
2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014.1991-2013: Based on data through 12/31/2013, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high deductible policies.
Cumulative Change = 263%(1991-2014p)
Accident Year
Medical severity for lost time claims was up 4% in 2014, the
largest increase since 2009
Workers CompensationChange in Medical Severity Comparison to Change in Medical Consumer Price Index (CPI)
68
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14p0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
5.1
7.4
10.1
8.3
10.6
7.3
13.5
8.8
7.7
5.4
7.8
5.8 5.9
6.9
4.0
0.5
2.4 2.4
34.0
4.5
3.52.8
3.2 3.54.1
4.6 4.74.0
4.4 4.2 4.04.4
3.73.2 3.4
3.03.7
3 2.4
Change in Lost-Time Medical Claim Severity
Change in US Medical CPI
Percent Change
Year
Average Annual Change: 1994—2014
Lost-Time Medical Severity: +6.4%
US Medical CPI: +3.7%
2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014.Sources: Severity: 995-2013: Based on data through 12/31/2013, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high deductible policies.US Medical CPI: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
73
Growth Analysis by State and Business Segment
Post-Crisis Paradox? Premium Growth Rates Vary
Tremendously by State
73
74
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*
Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change, 1971—2015:Q1
(Percent)1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
Shaded areas denote “hard market” periodsSources: A.M. Best (1971-2013), ISO (2014-15).
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.
2015:Q1: 3.7%
2014: 4.1%
2013: 4.4%
2012: +4.2%
77
Direct Premiums Written: Comm. LinesPercent Change by State, 2007-2014
80
.4
36
.8
33
.3
29
.4
24
.8
22
.5
21
.0
20
.6
15
.2
14
.6
13
.9
11
.8
10
.3
8.7
8.5
8.4
8.0
7.9
7.6
7.1
6.6
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.4
4.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
ND
SD VT
OK
NE IA KS
TX
WY
AK IN
MN WI
MA
AR
CT
NY
NJ
CO
NM
OH LA
US
MS
NH
MO
Pe
ce
nt
ch
an
ge
(%
)
Sources: SNL Financial LLC.; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 25 States
43 states showed commercial lines growth from 2007
through 2014
Growth Benchmarks: Commercial
US: 5.9%
78
Direct Premiums Written: Comm. LinesPercent Change by State, 2007-2014
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.2
2.1
1.4
0.9
-1.3
-3.2
-5.3
-6.5
-6.9
-9.2
-10
.7
-19
.9
-22
.2
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
MI
TN
MD
MT
CA RI
WA
GA
PA
UT IL KY VA
NC
ME
SC ID AL
DC HI
FL
OR AZ
DE
NV
WV
Pe
ce
nt
ch
an
ge
(%
)
Bottom 25 States
Sources: SNL Financial LLC.; Insurance Information Institute.
States with the poorest performing economies also produced the most negative
net change in premiums of the past 6 years
Nearly half the states have yet to see commercial lines premium
volume return to pre-crisis levels
81
Commercial Lines Pricing Trends
Survey Results Suggest Commercial Pricing Has
Flattened Out
81
82
Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004–1Q:2015)
-3.2
%-5
.9%
-7.0
%-9
.4%
-9.7
% -8.2
%-4
.6% -2
.7%
-3.0
%-5
.3%
-9.6
%-1
1.3
%-1
1.8
%-1
3.3
%-1
2.0
%-1
3.5
%-1
2.9
%-1
1.0
%-6
.4%
-5.1
%-4
.9%
-5.8
%-5
.6%
-5.3
%-6
.4%
-5.2
%-5
.4% -2
.9%
2.7
% 4.4
%4
.3%
3.9
% 5.0
%5
.2%
4.3
%3
.4%
2.1
%1
.5%
-0.5
%0
.1%
-0.7
%-1
.5%-0
.1%
0.9
%
-0.1
%
-16%
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
1Q
04
2Q
04
3Q
04
4Q
04
1Q
05
2Q
05
3Q
05
4Q
05
1Q
06
2Q
06
3Q
06
4Q
06
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute
KRW Effect
Pricing as of Q1:2015 had turned (slightly) negative for only the 3rd time in 3 years
(Percent)
Q2 2011 marked the last of 30th
consecutive quarter of price declines
M&A UPDATE: A PATH TO GROWTH?
84
Are Capital Accumulation, Drive for Growth and Scale Stimulating
M&A Activity?
84
85
U.S. INSURANCE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS,P/C SECTOR, 1994-2014 (1)
$5,1
00
$11,
534
$8,0
59
$30,
873
$19,
118
$40,
032
$1,2
49
$486
$20,
353
$425
$9,2
64
$35,
221
$13,
615
$16,
294
$3,5
07 $6,4
19
$12,
458
$4,6
51
$4,3
97
$6,7
23
$55,825
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Tra
ns
ac
tio
n v
alu
es
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nu
mb
er o
f tran
sa
ctio
ns
($ Millions)
(1) Includes transactions where a U.S. company was the acquirer and/or the target.
Source: Conning proprietary database.
M&A activity in the P/C sector was up
sharply in 2014 but remains well
below pre-crisis or late 1990s levels.
M&A activity in 2015 will likely
reach its highest level since 1998
Update: Alleghany Corp. announced in May 2015 that it is considering the sale of TransAtlantic Holding Co. (TransRe).*Source: Conning; Insurance information Institute.
Top Global P&C M&As in 2014 - YTD 2015
Acquirer TargetTransaction
Value
ACE (Switzerland) Chubb (US) $28,300Exor (Italy) PartnerRe Ltd. (Bermuda) $6,900
Zurich (Switzerland) RSA (UK) 8,000
XL Group plc (Ireland) Catlin Group Ltd. (Bermuda) 4,200
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda) Platinum Underwriters Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda) 1,900
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (Canada) Brit Insurance Holdings NV (Netherlands) 1,880
Desjardins Financial Corp. (Canada)
State Farm's property/casualty and life insurance
operations in Canada (Canada) 1,500
TPG Capital LP The Warranty Group, Inc. (Canada) 1,500
Fosun International Ltd. (China) Caixa Seguros e Saude SGPA SA (Portugal) 1,360
Progressive Corp. ARX Holding Corp. 875
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (Bermuda) Radian Asset Assurance, Inc. 810
Mapfre S.A. (Spain)
German and Italina operations of Direct Line Insurance
Group plc (Germany/Italy) 701
Validus Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda) Western World Insurance Group, Inc. 690
ACE Ltd. (Switzerland) P&C business from Itau Seguros S.A. (Brazil) 685
88
What’s Driving Global Insurance M&A Activity and Will It Continue? Excess Capital in Global Reinsurance and Primary Commercial
Insurance in US (Re)Insurers, like corporations in many industry, are sitting are large
amounts of cash accumulated since the Global Financial Crisis that earns very little
Alternative Capital
Slow Top Line (Premium) Growth
Slowdown in Pace of Earnings Growth/ROE
Low Interest Rates Make Debt Financing for Acquisitions Attractive Concern that interest rates in US may soon rise so best to act now
Desire to Achieve Economies of Scale
Peer Pressure/Momentum Management concerns about being “left out”
94
Insured Catastrophe Losses
2013/14 and YTD 2015 Experienced Below Average CAT Activity After Very High CAT
Losses in 2011/12Winter Storm Losses Far Above Average in
2014 and 201594
95
$1
3.0
$1
1.3
$3
.9
$1
4.8
$1
1.9
$6
.3
$3
5.8
$7
.8
$1
6.8
$3
4.7
$1
0.9
$7
.7
$3
0.1
$1
1.8
$1
4.9
$3
4.6
$3
6.1
$1
3.1
$1
5.5
$8
.2
$75.7
$1
4.4
$5
.0 $8
.2
$3
8.9
$9
.1
$2
7.2
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses
*Through 6/30/15 in 2015 dollars.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; AonBenfield Insurance Information Institute.
2013/14 Were Welcome Respites from 2011/12, among the Costliest Years for Insured Disaster Losses in US History. Longer-term Trend is for
more—not fewer—Costly Events
2012 was the 3rd most expensive year ever for
insured CAT losses
$8.2B in insured CAT losses though 6/30/15, up slightly from $7.3B in 2014
($ Billions, $ 2014)
95
96
Top 16 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History—Katrina Still Ranks #1
(Insured Losses, 2014 Dollars, $ Billions)
$8.1 $9.0 $9.4 $11.4$13.8
$19.3$24.6 $25.3$26.4
$50.2
$7.7$7.3$6.9$5.8$5.7$4.6
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Irene (2011) Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Tornadoes/T-Storms
(2011)
Tornadoes/T-Storms
(2011)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike (2008)
Sandy*(2012)
Northridge(1994)
9/11 Attack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Storm Sandy in 2012 was the last mega-CAT
to hit the US
Includes Tuscaloosa, AL,
tornado
Includes Joplin, MO, tornado
12 of the 16 Most Expensive Events in US History Have Occurred Since 2004
Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2014 dollars using the CPI.
97
Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2015F*
*2010s represent 2010-2014.Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers.Source: ISO (1960-2010); A.M. Best (2011-15E) Insurance Information Institute.
0.4
1.2
0.4 0.
8 1.3
0.3
0.4 0.
71.
51.
00.
40.
4 0.7
1.8
1.1
0.6
1.4 2.
01.
3 2.0
0.5
0.5 0.7
3.0
1.2
2.1
8.8
2.3
5.9
3.3
2.8
1.0
3.6
2.9
1.6
5.4
1.6
3.3
3.3
8.1
2.7
1.6
5.0
2.6
3.4
9.4
8.0
3.9 4.
4 4.9
3.6
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades
Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio
by Decade
1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 5.82*
Combined Ratio Points Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses
reached a record high in 2011
98
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 1995–20141
0.1%
1.5%5.4%
0.1%
6.2%
6.8%
39.2%
40.7%
1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2014 dollars.2. Excludes snow.3. Does not include NFIP flood losses4. Includes wildland fires5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation.Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit.
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $161.2
Fires (4), $6.0
Events Involving Tornadoes (2), $154.9
Winter Storms, $26.9
Terrorism, $24.5
Geological Events, $0.5
Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $21.4
Other (5), $0.2
Wind losses are by far cause the most catastrophe losses,
even if hurricanes/TS are excluded.
Tornado share of CAT losses is
rising
Insured cat losses from 1995-2014
totaled $395.6B, an average of $19.8B per year or $1.65B
per month
Winter storm losses were much above average in 2014/15 are
will push this share up
**Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI
*Winter storms include winter damage, blizzard, snow storm and cold wave 100
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Property Claim Services, MR NatCatSERVICE.
$ Billions, in 2014 Dollars
2015 insured winter storm losses totaled $2.3B, similar to 2014 and about double the
long-run average
Three of the four most costly years ever for insured losses from winter storms and
damage occurred in the 1990s, led by the “Storm of the Century” in 1993.
5-year running average
Winter Storm and Winter Damage Events in the US, 1980-2015 (2014 US$)
Natural Disaster Losses in the U.S.,First Half 2015
As of July 1, 2015
Number of
Events FatalitiesEstimated Overall Losses (US $m)
Estimated Insured Losses (US $m)*
Severe Thunderstorm 38 66 7,000 5,100
Winter Storms & Cold Waves 11 80 3,800 2,900
Flood, Flash Flood 10 4 500 150
Earthquake & Geophysical 1 - - -
Tropical Cyclone 2 4 Loss est. in progress Loss est. in progress
Wildfire, Heat Waves, & Drought
18 - 1,300 Minor market loss
Totals 80 154 12,600 8,200
101
*Source: Property Claim Services (PCS) as of 7/7/2015; Munich Re.
103
The World is Warmer...With One Big Exception!
HIGHLIGHTS
• 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880.
• 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.
• January to May 2015 warmest first five months on record!
Source: NOAA; Munich Re.
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Loss events in the US, 1980 – 2014Number of events
106
Meteorological events(Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic activity)
Number of Events
7
72
24
16
2014 Total:119 Events
Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
The number of loss events surged from 2006 – 2010,
though insured losses remained elevated through 2012
2015 First Half:80 Events
Loss Events in the US, 1980 – 2014Overall and Insured Losses
107
Overall losses (in 2013 values)*
Insured losses (in 2013 values)*
*Losses adjusted to inflation based on CPI.
Overall losses totaled $25bn; Insured losses totaled $15.3bn
50
100
150
200
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Property Claim Services, MR NatCatSERVICE.
$ Billions 2015 First Half:$8.2 Billion Insured Losses
$12.0 Overall Losses
Convective Loss Events in the USOverall and insured losses, 1980 – 2014
108
$ Billions
Analysis contains: severe storm, tornado, hail, flash flood and lightning
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
*Losses adjusted to inflation based on CPI
Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
Overall losses (in 2014 values)*
Insured losses (in 2014 values)* The period from 2008-2014 has
been the most expensive on record for insured losses from “Convective Events” (severe thunderstorms, tornado, hail,
lightning and flash flood)
2015 First Half:$5.1 Billion Insured Losses
$7.0 Overall Losses
The Strength of the Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer
Growth Opportunities
115
Growth Will Expand Insurer Exposure Base Across Most Lines
115
116
US Real GDP Growth*
* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 8/15; Insurance Information Institute.
2.7%
1.8%
-1.8
%1.
3%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-0
.3%
5.0%
2.3%
2.2% 2.6%
2.4%
0.1%
2.5%
1.3%
4.1%
2.0%
1.3%
3.1%
0.4%
2.7%
1.8%
3.5%
-0.9
%4.
6%4.
3%2.
1%0.
6%2.
3% 2.7%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
-8.9%
4.5%
1.4%
4.1%
1.1% 1.
8% 2.5% 3.
6%3.
1%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
2
00
0
2
00
1
2
00
2
2
00
3
2
00
4
2
00
5
2
00
6
2
00
7
08
:1Q
08
:2Q
08
:3Q
08
:4Q
09
:1Q
09
:2Q
09
:3Q
09
:4Q
10
:1Q
10
:2Q
10
:3Q
10
:4Q
11
:1Q
11
:2Q
11
:3Q
11
:4Q
12
:1Q
12
:2Q
12
:3Q
12
:4Q
13
:1Q
13
:2Q
13
:3Q
13
:4Q
14
:1Q
14
:2Q
14
:3Q
14
:4Q
15
:1Q
15
:2Q
15
:3Q
15
:4Q
16
:1Q
16
:2Q
16
:3Q
16
:4Q
Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2015 as GDP Growth Accelerates Modestly and Gradually Benefits the Economy Broadly
Real GDP Growth (%)
Recession began in in June
2009
The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8%
Q1 2014/15 GDP data were hit hard by this
year’s “Polar Vortex” and harsh
winter
State Leading Economic Indicators through November 2015
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at http://www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm ;Insurance Information Institute. 117
Growth in the West is
finally beginning to pick up
The economic outlook for most of the US is generally
positive, though flat-to-negative for 10 states, several
of them energy dependent
118
Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2014*:Highest 25 States
6.3
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.7
3.6
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
ND TX WY WV CO OR UT WA OK CA ID FL NY GA NH MA US SC OH MI MN LA MT KS PA TN
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
(%
)
*Advance statisticsSources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Insurance Information Institute.
North Dakota was the economic growth juggernaut of the US
in 2014—by far
Only 7 states experienced growth in excess of 3% in 2014, which is a
growth rate we would see nationally in a more typical recovery
Growth Benchmarks: Real GDP
US: 2.2%
119
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
-1.2
-1.3-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
DC NC AZ IL RI DE WI KY NM NV MO AR HI MD NE AL SD VT CT IA IN NJ ME VA MS AK
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
(%
)Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2014*: Lowest 25 States
*Advance statisticsSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Insurance Information Institute.
Mississippi and Alaska were the
only states to shrink in 2014
Growth rates in 16 states were still below 1% in
2014
121
Labor Market Trends
Massive Job Losses Sapped the Economy and Commercial/Personal
Lines Exposure, But Trend Has Greatly Improved
121
122
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Still Too High, But Falling
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan00
Jan01
Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
"Headline" Unemployment Rate U-3
Unemployment + Underemployment RateU-6
“Headline” unemployment
was 5.3% in July 2015. 4.5% to
5.5% is “normal.”
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
January 2000 through July 2015, Seasonally Adjusted (%)
Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market is continuing to improve.
122
U-6 soared from 8.0% in March
2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 10.4% in June 2015.8% to 10% is
“normal.”
23
15
21
70
52
12
65
73
-71
32 6
4 81
55
3-1
15
-10
6-2
21
-21
5-2
06
-26
1-2
58
-42
2-4
86
-77
6 -69
3-8
21
-69
8-8
10
-80
1-2
94
-42
6-2
72
-23
2 -14
1-2
71
-15
-23
22
0-3
81
92
94 11
01
20
11
71
07
19
91
49
94
72
22
32
31 3
20
16
61
86
21
91
25
26
81
77
19
12
22
36
42
28
24
61
02
13
17
51
72
13
61
59
25
52
11
21
52
19 26
31
64
18
8 22
22
01
17
01
80
15
32
47
27
28
61
83
17
5 22
33
13
23
8 27
22
43
20
92
35
21
84
14
31
92
02 2
61
11
7 18
9 25
22
27
21
0
11
3
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
Jan-
07F
eb-0
7M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-07
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
08F
eb-0
8M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-08
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
09F
eb-0
9M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-
Jun-
09Ju
l-09
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-09
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-
Jun-
10Ju
l-10
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-10
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
11F
eb-1
1M
ar-1
1A
pr-1
1M
ay-
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-11
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
12F
eb-1
2M
ar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-12
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
13F
eb-1
3M
ar-1
3A
pr-1
3M
ay-
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-13
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
14F
eb-1
4M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-
Jun-
14Ju
l-14
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-14
Nov
-D
ec-
Jan-
15F
eb-1
5M
ar-1
5A
pr-1
5M
ay-
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Monthly Change in Private Employment
January 2007 through July 2015 (000s, Seasonally Adj.)
Private Employers Added 12.84 Million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 5.01 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.76 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute
Monthly losses in Dec. 08–Mar.
09 were the largest in the
post-WW II period
210,000 private sector jobs were created in July.
123
Jobs Created2014: 3.042 Mill2013: 2.452 Mill2012: 2.315 Mill2011: 2.396 Mill2010: 1.282 Mill
3,042,000 jobs were created in 2014, the most since 1997
125
Unemployment Rates by State, June 2015:Highest 25 States*
7.4
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
0
2
4
6
8
WV DC NV AK MS SC LA NM CA AL GA NJ AZ IL RI MO NC AR CT TN FL MI NY OR PA US
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
*Provisional figures for June 2015, seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
In June, 21 states and the District of Columbia had over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 12 states had increases, and 17 states had no change.
126
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.1
2.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WA MD OH KY IN VA DE ME MA WI KS OK CO TX WY HI ID MN MT NH SD IA VT UT ND NE
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
Unemployment Rates by State, June 2015: Lowest 25 States*
*Provisional figures for June 2015, seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
In June, 21 states and the District of Columbia had over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 12 states had increases, and 17 states had no change.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK
127
The Construction Sector Is Critical to the Economy and the P/C Insurance Industry
127
128
Value of New Private Construction: Residential & Nonresidential, 2003-2015*
Billions of Dollars
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*
Non ResidentialResidential
Private Construction Activity Is Moving in a Positive Direction though Remains Well Below Pre-Crisis Peak; Residential Dominates
$298.1
$15.0
$613.7
New Construction peaks at $911.8. in 2006
Trough in 2010 at $500.6B,
after plunging 55.1% ($411.2B)
2015: Value of new pvt. construction hits
$766.4B as of June 2015, up 53.1% from the 2010 trough but
still 17.5% below 2006 peak
128
$261.8
$238.8
$394.8
$371.6
*2015 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of June.Sources: US Department of Commerce http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.
129
Value of Construction Put in Place, June 2015 vs. June 2014*
8.0%
29.2%
7.6%
12.0%13.7% 12.8%
14.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
TotalConstruction
Total PrivateConstruction
Residential--Private
Non-Residential--
Private
Total PublicConstruction
Residential-Public
Non-Residential--
Public
Overall Construction Activity is Up Again After Languishing in Early 2015; State/Local Sector Government Sector May Be Recovering as Budget
Woes Ease in Some Jurisdictions
Growth (%)
Private sector construction activity is up in both the
residential and nonresidential segments
*seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.
Private: +13.7% Public: +8.0%Public sector
construction activity is finally beginning to
create less drag up after years of decline
130
Value of Private Construction Put in Place, by Segment, June 2015 vs. June 2014*
7.5%12.1%
-3.5%
4.7%
16.1%13.7%
-16.3%
62.0%
48.2%
13.7% 12.8%14.6%
41.9%
27.5%
-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
To
tal
Pri
vate
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Res
iden
tial
To
tal
No
nre
sid
enti
al
Lo
dg
ing
Off
ice
Co
mm
erc
ial
Hea
lth
Car
e
Ed
uca
tio
nal
Rel
igio
us
Am
use
men
t &
Rec
.
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
Po
wer
/Uti
lity
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Private Construction Activity is Up in Most Segments, though the Key Residential Construction Sector Weakened in Late 2014/Early 2015; Mixed
Outlook for 2015, though Expansion Should Continue
Growth (%) Led by the Manufacturing, Lodging, Office and Amusement & Recreations segments, Private nonresidential sector construction
activity continues to rise after plunging during the “Great Recession.”
*seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.
132
$314.9$304.0
$286.4 $278.2$269.0 $273.1
$298.2
$216.1 $220.2$234.2
$255.4
$289.1$308.7
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
($ Billions)
Government Construction Spending Peaked in 2009, Helped by Stimulus Spending, but Contracted As State/Local Governments Grappled with
Deficits and Federal Sequestration; Only Now Recovering
Value of New Federal, State and Local Government Construction: 2003-2015*
*2015 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of June; http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html Sources: US Department of Commerce; Insurance Information Institute.
Construction across all levels of government
peaked at $314.9B in 2009
Austerity Reigns
Govt. construction MAY finally be turning around; still down $16.7B
or 5.3% since 2009 peak
133
(Millions of Units)
New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2021F
1.4
81
.47 1
.62
1.6
41
.57
1.6
0 1.7
1 1.8
5 1.9
6 2.0
71
.80
1.3
60
.91
0.5
50
.59
0.6
1 0.7
8 0.9
2 1.1
01
.12 1
.27 1.4
11
.46
1.4
91
.52
1.5
2
1.3
51.4
61
.29
1.2
0
1.0
11.1
9
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F20F 21F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/15); Insurance Information Institute.
Insurers Are Continue to See Meaningful Exposure Growth in the Wake of the “Great Recession” Associated with Home Construction: Construction Risk
Exposure, Surety, Commercial Auto; Potent Driver of Workers Comp Exposure
New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net
annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began
in 1959
Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, low mortgage rates and demographics should continue to stimulate new home construction
for several more years
137
Construction Employment,Jan. 2010—July 2015*
*Seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
5,58
15,
522
5,54
25,
554
5,52
75,
512
5,49
75,
519
5,49
95,
501
5,49
75,
468
5,43
55,
478
5,48
55,
497
5,52
45,
530
5,54
75,
546
5,58
35,
576
5,57
75,
612
5,62
95,
629
5,62
85,
627
5,60
85,
623
5,63
25,
641
5,64
95,
668
5,68
45,
724
5,74
6 5,79
85,
815
5,81
35,
833
5,85
65,
854
5,86
65,
893
5,91
85,
953
5,93
7 6,00
66,
032
6,06
26,
103
6,11
46,
121
6,15
26,
169
6,19
16,
201
6,23
16,
275
6,31
66,
347
6,33
56,
365
6,37
76,
377
6,38
3
5,400
5,500
5,600
5,700
5,800
5,900
6,000
6,100
6,200
6,300
6,400
6,500
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
122/
30/2
0M
ar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-12
Jul-1
2A
ug-1
2S
ep-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep
-12
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
14F
eb-1
4M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4S
ep-1
4O
ct-1
4N
ov-1
4D
ec-1
4Ja
n-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Construction employment is +948,000 above
Jan. 2011 (+17.4%) trough
(Thousands)
Construction and manufacturing employment constitute 1/3 of all WC payroll exposure.
ENERGY SECTOR: OIL & GAS INDUSTRY FUTURE IS BRIGHT
BUT VOLATILE
139
US Is Becoming an Energy Powerhouse but Fall in Prices
Will Have Negative Impact
139
5.19 5.08 5.00 5.35 5.47 5.656.49
7.44
8.679.31 9.53
5.09
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
U.S. Crude Oil Production, 2005-2016P
Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (January 15, 2015) , Insurance Information Institute.
Millions of Barrels per Day
Crude oil production in the U.S. is expected to increase by 90.6% from 2008 through 2016—and could overtake
Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer
142
Employment in Oil & Gas Extraction,Jan. 2010—July 2015*
*Seasonally adjustedSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-1
0
Sep
-10
Nov
-10
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
156.
515
6.4
156.
715
7.6
158.
715
8.1
158.
415
9.7
160.
216
1.5
161.
416
1.0
162.
716
4.3
166.
616
9.2
170.
117
1.2
172.
617
4.0
176.
617
8.2
178.
718
0.6
181.
318
2.3
184.
718
5.2
186.
218
7.8
188.
618
9.3
189.
418
9.4
190.
519
2.2
193.
119
4.6
194.
019
3.8
193.
119
2.5
193.
019
3.4
193.
319
3.1
194.
019
4.0
194.
019
5.4
193.
719
4.6
196.
419
7.6
198.
619
8.4
199.
420
1.5
201.
020
1.2
199.
419
7.6
197.
719
4.4
194.
219
3.3
193.
8
Oil and gas extraction employment was up
28.8% by Oct. 2014 but falling energy prices have taken their toll
(000)
Employment in the O&G segment is down 3.8%
since its Oct. 2014 peak
MANUFACTURING SECTOR OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK
143
The U.S. Is Experiencing a Mini Manufacturing Renaissance but Headwinds from Weak Export
Markets and Strong Dollar143
147
Manufacturing Employment,Jan. 2010—July 2015*
11,4
6011
,460
11,4
6611
,497
11,5
3111
,539
11,5
5811
,548
11,5
5411
,555
11,5
7711
,590
11,6
2411
,662
11,6
8211
,707
11,7
1511
,724
11,7
4711
,760
11,7
6211
,770
11,7
6911
,797
11,8
3411
,857
11,8
9911
,916
11,9
3011
,941
11,9
6511
,961
11,9
4811
,951
11,9
4711
,961
11,9
8012
,002
12,0
0612
,006
12,0
0712
,005
11,9
8312
,011
12,0
2212
,040
12,0
7212
,086
12,1
0212
,122
12,1
3112
,142
12,1
5412
,177
12,1
9112
,205
12,2
1412
,237
12,2
8212
,301
12,3
1812
,321
12,3
2712
,327
12,3
3312
,335
12,3
50
11,250
11,500
11,750
12,000
12,250
12,500Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Ma
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0A
pr-
10
Ma
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0Ju
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ug
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Se
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0O
ct-1
0N
ov-
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De
c-1
0Ja
n-1
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Ma
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Ma
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1Ju
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Se
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22
/30
/2M
ar-
12
Ap
r-1
2M
ay-
12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2D
ec-
12
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3M
ar-
13
Ap
r-1
3M
ay-
13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-1
4M
ay-
14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4D
ec-
14
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-1
5M
ay-
15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Manufacturing employment is a surprising source of strength in the economy. Employment in the sector is at a multi-year high.
*Seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
(Thousands) Since Jan 2010, manufacturing
employment is up (+890,000 or +7.8%)and still growing.
Profitability & Politics
152152
How Is Profitability Affected by the President’s Political Party?
15.10%
9.00%
8.93%
8.65%
8.35%
8.33%
7.98%
7.68%
6.98%
6.97%
5.43%
5.03%
4.83%
4.68%
4.43%
3.55%
16.43%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Carter
Reagan II
Obama II
Nixon
Clinton I
G.H.W. Bush
G.W. Bush II
Clinton II
Reagan I
Nixon/Ford
Truman
Eisenhower I
Eisenhower II
G.W. Bush I
Obama I
Johnson
Kennedy/Johnson
*Truman administration ROE of 6.97% based on 3 years only, 1950-52;. Source: Insurance Information Institute
OVERALL RECORD: 1950-2014*
Democrats 7.72%Republicans 7.85%
Party of President has marginal bearing on profitability of P/C insurance industry
P/C Insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Administration, 1950-2014*
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
BLUE = Democratic President RED = Republican President
Tru
man Nixon/Ford
Ken
ned
y/
Joh
nso
n
Eis
enh
ow
er
Car
ter
Reagan/Bush I Clinton Bush II
P/C insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Party Affiliation, 1950- 2014
Obama
. Source: Insurance Information Institute
CYBER RISK & CYBER INSURANCE
155
Cyber Risk is a Rapidly Emerging Exposure for Businesses Large and
Small in Every IndustryNonprofits Including Religious
Institutions Are Vulnerable155
Data Breaches 2005-2015, by Number of Breaches and Records Exposed# Data Breaches/Millions of Records Exposed
*Figures as of June 30, 2015, from the Identity Theft Resource Center,http://www.idtheftcenter.org/images/breach/ITRCBreachReport2015.pdf
157
321
446
656
498
419470
614
400
783
662
117.6
85.692.0
17.522.9
35.7
19.1
66.9
222.5
16.2
127.7
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *20150
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
# Data Breaches # Records Exposed (Millions)
The total number of data breaches (+27.5%) hit a record high of 783 in 2014, exposing 85.6 million records. Through June 30, this year has
seen 117.6 million records exposed in 400 breaches.*
Millions
160
2014 Data Breaches By Business Category, By Number of Breaches
5.5%
11.7%
7.3%
42.5%
33.3%
Source: Identity Theft Resource Center, http://www.idtheftcenter.org/ITRC-Surveys-Studies/2014databreaches.html
The majority of the 783 data breaches in 2014 affected business and medical/healthcare organizations, according to the Identity Theft Resource Center.
Business, 258 (33.3%)Govt/Military, 92 (11.7%)
Banking/Credit/Financial, 43 (5.5%)
Educational, 57 (7.3%)
Medical/Healthcare, 333 (42.5%)
161
State sponsored groups: Foreign government sponsored Sophisticated and well-funded
Organized cyber criminals: Traditional organized crime groups Loosely organized global hacker crews
Hacktivists: Politically-motivated hackers Increasing capabilities
Insiders: Easy access to sensitive information Difficult to detect
Terrorists: Destruction of physical and digital assets
Evolving Threats: Cyber Crime and Cyber Terrorism
Source: Lewis Brisbois, Practical Strategies to Address Cyber Risk in Your Business, November 2014
162
Main Causes of Data Breach Globally
30%
29%
42%
*The most common types of malicious or criminal attacks include malware infections, criminal insiders, phishing/social engineering and SQL injection.Source: 2014 Cost of a Data Breach Study: Global Analysis, the Ponemon Institute, sponsored by IBM, May 2014
Malicious or criminal attacks are most often the cause of data breach globally. Some 42 percent of incidents concern a malicious or criminal attack, while 30
percent concern a negligent employee or contractor (human factor).
Malicious or criminal attack*
Human error
System glitch
163
US: Most Costly Types of Cyber Crimes, Fiscal Year 2014
4%4%
6%
8%
10%
13%
14%
18%
23%
Source: 2014 Cost of Cyber Crime: United States, Ponemon Institute.
Malicious code, denial of service and web-based attacks account for more than 55 percent of the total annualized cost of cyber crime experienced by 59 U.S. companies.
Malicious code
Viruses, Worms, Trojans
Denial of service
Botnets
Malware
Malicious insiders
Stolen devices
Phishing + social engineering
Web-based attacks
164
US: External Cyber Crime Costs: Fiscal Year 2014
2%2%
18%
38%
40%
* Other costs include direct and indirect costs that could not be allocated to a main external cost categorySource: 2014 Cost of Cyber Crime: United States, Ponemon Institute.
Information theft (40%) and business disruption or lost productivity (38%) account for the majority of external costs due to cyber crime.
Information theft
Equipment damagesOther costs*
Revenue loss
Business disruption
166
Marsh: Percentage of U.S. Companies Purchasing Cyber Insurance Increased in 2014
*Take-up rate refers to the overall percentage of clients that purchased standalone cyber insurance.Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015
8%
12%
18%
21%
21%
22%
26%
32%
50%
16%
11%
13%
14%
17%
17%
16%
22%
45%
13%
6%Manufacturing
Communications, Media and Tech
Retail/Wholesale
Power and Utilities
Financial Institutions
Services
Hospitality and Gaming
Education
Health Care
All Industries
Take-up rate 2014* Take-up rate 2013
Ever larger numbers of insureds seek financial
protection via cyber insurance. The
percentage of U.S. companies buying cyber
insurance rose to 16 percent in 2014.
167
Marsh: Total Limits Purchased, By Industry – Cyber Liability, All Revenue Size
Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015
$22.0
$4.2
$9.9 $10.5$9.5
$11.1$10.2
$13.2
$19.7
$6.7
$23.5
$10.5$12.0
$14.9
$21.0
$4.4
$22.2
$12.8
All Industries Comms, Media& Technology
Education FinancialInstitutions
Health Care Manufacturing Power andUtilities
Retail/Wholesale Services
Avg. 2013 Limits Avg. 2014 Limits
Average limits purchased for cyber risk rose to $12.8 million for all industries and all company sizes in 2014. Power and utility companies witnessed the sharpest
percentage increase in average limits, at 59 percent.
($ Millions)
169
Cyber Liability: Historical Rate (price per million) Changes
4.2%
2.8%
2.3%
2.9%
2.7%
2.1%
2.7%
3.6%
14:Q1 14:Q2 14:Q3 14:Q4
Average Total Price Per Million Change
Average Primary Price Per Million Change
Cyber insurance premiums were generally volatile in 2014 due to increased frequency and severity of losses.
Average rate increases at renewal for both primary layers and total programs were lower in Q4 2014 than in
Q1.
Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015
Data/Privacy Breach:Many Potential Costs Can Be Insured
Source: Zurich Insurance; Insurance Information Institute
Forensic costs to discover
cause
170
Source: Insurance Information Institute research.
The Three Basic Elements of Cyber Coverage: Prevention, Transfer, Response
Loss Prevention
Post-Breach Response(Insurable)
Loss Transfer (Insurance)
Cyber risk management today involves three essential components, each designed
to reduce, mitigate or avoid loss. An increasing number of cyber risk products
offered by insurers today provide all three.
171
172
I.I.I. Will Release its Third Cyber Report in 2015: Cyber Risks Threat and Opportunity
I.I.I.’s 3rd report on cyber risk scheduled for Q3 2015
Provides information on cyber threats and insurance market solutions
Global cyber risk overview
Quantification of threats by type and industry
Cyber security and cost of attacks
Cyber terrorism
Cyber liability
Insurance market for cyber risk
173
INDUSTRY DISRUPTORS
Technology, Society and the Economy Are All
Changing at a Rapid PaceThoughts on the Future
173
175
Media is Obsessed with Driverless Vehicles: Often Predicting the Demise of Auto Insurance
By 2035, it is estimated that 25% of new vehicle
sales could be fully autonomous models
Source: Boston Consulting Group.
Questions
Are auto insurers monitoring these trends?
How are they reacting?
Will Google take over the industry?
Will the number of auto insurers shrink?
How will liability shift?
176
On-Demand/Sharing/Peer-to-Peer Economy Impacts Many Lines of Insurance The “On-Demand” Economy is or
will impact many segments of the economy important to P/C insurers
Auto (personal and commercial)
Homeowners/Renters
Many Liability Coverages
Professional Liability
Workers Comp Many unanswered insurance
questions
Insurance solutions are increasingly available to fill the many insurance gaps that arise
177
Labor on Demand: Huge Implications for the US Economy, Workers & Insurers
Will YOUR job be reduced to an app?
178
Send in the Drones: Potential Rapid Adoption in Industry; Media Loves It
Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology is seeing rapid adoption rate in many industries, including insurance
FAA granting Section 333 exemptions for commercial use and testing of UAS
At least 5 insurers have received permission to test
Wide variety of applications: claims, pre-event property inspections…
Insurers partnering with construction industry to guide R&D and regulation of UAV use via Property Drone Consortium: www.propertydrone.org
Shifting Legal Liability & Tort Environment
180
Will the Tort PendulumSwing Against Insurers?
180
181
Over the Last Three Decades, Total Tort Costs as a % of GDP Appear Somewhat Cyclical, 1980-2013E
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12E
To
rt S
ys
tem
Co
sts
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
To
rt Co
sts
as
% o
f GD
P
Tort Sytem Costs Tort Costs as % of GDP
($ Billions)
Sources: Towers Watson, 2011 Update on US Tort Cost Trends, Appendix 1A
Tort costs in dollar terms have remained high but relatively stable
since the mid-2000s., but are down substantially as a share of GDP
Deepwater Horizon Spike
in 2010
1.68% of GDP in 2013
2.21% of GDP in 2003
= pre-tort reform peak
185
The Nation’s Judicial “Hellholes”: 2014/2015
Source: American Tort Reform Association; Insurance Information Institute
West VirginiaIllinoisMadison County
New York City Asbestos Litigation
Watch List
Atlantic County, New Jersey
Mississippi Delta Montana Nevada Newport News, Virginia Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania
Dishonorable Mention
AL Supreme Court PA Supreme Court
California
Florida
www.iii.org
Thank you for your timeand your attention!
Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwig
Insurance Information Institute Online:
186