p lanning, f orecasting & b udgeting distribution management m wahidul islam spring 2015 lecture...
TRANSCRIPT
PLANNING, FORECASTING & BUDGETING
Distribution Management
M Wahidul Islam
Spring 2015
LECTURE 2
Elements of Distribution Managemen
t
Planning, Forecasting
& Budgeting
Sales Force Managemen
t
Product Pricing and Promotion
Product Visibility
Distribution Channels
Channel Information
Systems
Warehousing and
Logistics
STRATEGIC PLANNING
Marketing Strategy
Long Term
Short Term
Product / Service Strategy
Promotion / Marketing
Communication Strategy
Pricing Strategy
Sales / Distribution Strategy
Sales Promotion Strategy
Selling Strategy (Sales Force / Personal etc.)
Direct Marketing Strategy
Point of Sales Promotion
(communication) Strategy
GRAMEENPHONE - STRATEGIC PLANNING
Marketing StrategyConnecting people using emotional hook & limiting distances with targeted service offerings with ease of availability
Product / Service Strategy
Specific target segment based product / service with premium pricing
Pricing StrategyPremium Pricing with Value Added Services
Promotion / Marketing Communication Strategy
Aggressive media presence with different product / service lines with emotional hook
Sales / Distribution Strategy
Ensuring availability everywhere with reach up to Rural markets
GRAMEENPHONE - STRATEGIC PLANNING
Marketing StrategyConnecting people using emotional hook & limiting distances with targeted service offerings with ease of availability
Product / Service Strategy
Specific target segment based product / service with premium pricing
Pricing StrategyPremium Pricing with Value Added Services
Promotion / Marketing Communication Strategy
Aggressive media presence with different product / service lines with emotional hook
Sales / Distribution Strategy
Ensuring availability everywhere with reach up to Rural markets
FORECASTING SALES
SALES FORECASTING
Is sales forecast only for Sales and Distribution department?
Who else has a stake on the sales forecasting? Manufacturing for setting up production facility
and planning production Finance for raising investment and cash to
support manufacturing and predict incoming cash flow from profits and utilizing them
Procurement function to support other departments requirements to meet the sale forecast
HR to ensure proper manpower planning to support forecast and execution
BASIC APPROACHES OF SALES FORECAST
Company
Regional
Area
Territory
Specific Market
> Top-Down / Break-Down Approach> Bottom-up / Build-up Approach
SALES FORECASTING METHODS
Qu
alit
ati
ve
Executive Opinion
Delphi Method
Sales Force Composite
Survey for Buyers
Intentions
Test Marketing
Full Blown
Controlled
Simulated
SALES FORECASTING METHODS
Qu
an
tita
tive
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Decomposition
Naive / Ratio method
Regression Analysis
Econometric Analysis
HOW TO IMPROVE FORECASTING ACCURACY?
Use multiple Forecasting Method Helps to ensure high level of accuracy and gain
confidence Identify Suitable Methods
Depends on the application, cost and time available for forecasting
Develop a few factors While using regression / econometric analysis,
number of independent variables / factors should be more or few?
Obtain a range of forecasts Minimum, intermediate and maximum Basically refers to contingency / scenario planning
GUIDELINE FOR SELECTING SUITABLE FORECASTING
METHOD
SELECTION TREE FOR FORECASTING METHODS
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Selecting Forecasting Methods. ScholarlyCommons:University of Pennsylvania , 9.
BUDGETING
SALES AND DISTRIBUTION EXPENDITURE BUDGETING
How do you determine how much to budget for sale and distribution? (not to be mistaken for marketing communication)
ApproachesPercentage of Sales MethodExecutive Judgment MethodObjective and Task Method
END