Institute for Domestic & International Affairs, Inc.

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

Missile Defense

Director: Alex Lewis

© 2009 Institute for Domestic & International Affairs, Inc. (IDIA)

This document is solely for use in preparation for Philadelphia Model United Nations 2009. Use for other purposes is not

permitted without the express written consent of IDIA. For more information, please write us at idiainfo@idia.net

Policy Dilemma ______________________________________________________________ 1 Chronology__________________________________________________________________ 3

1990 – 1992: The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe________________________ 3 2002: US Announces Plan for Missile Defense System in Eastern Europe ___________________ 4 2002: Russia Adamantly Disapproves of US’s Anti-Ballistic Missile System Plans ____________ 4 June 2007: Russia Proposes Azerbaijan as Alternative Location __________________________ 5 June 2007: US Rejects Russia Azerbaijan Proposal _____________________________________ 6 July 2007: Russia Suspends Agreement with CFE Treaty ________________________________ 6 February 2008: Poland and Czech Republic Agree to Host Missile Defense System___________ 7 May 2008: Joint Declaration and the 123 Agreement ____________________________________ 7 June 2008: Russia Begins Mass Production of Strategic Missiles __________________________ 8 5 November 2008: New US President, Barack Obama, Challenged by Russia________________ 9

Actors and Interests ___________________________________________________________ 9 The United States of America _______________________________________________________ 9 Russia__________________________________________________________________________ 11 Poland and the Czech Republic_____________________________________________________ 13

Possible Causes _____________________________________________________________ 15 US Manipulation of Public Fears and Events _________________________________________ 15 Maintaining US International Security ______________________________________________ 16 The Obstacle of Russian Intervention________________________________________________ 17 Comparison of Possible Causes _____________________________________________________ 19

Projections and Implications___________________________________________________ 19 Conclusion _________________________________________________________________ 21

Works Cited ________________________________________________________________ 22

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Policy Dilemma Relations between Russia and the West have grown increasingly fragile and tense

in recent years. Ever since the United States (US) announced its plans to develop a

missile defense system in Poland and Czech Republic, Russia has been publicly

denouncing the plans. The US aims to develop an anti-ballistic missile defense system,

more commonly known as an ABM system. Ballistic missiles are characterized by their

accelerating projectiles and potential for destruction. Such missiles are most commonly

used for nuclear purposes, but can also be deployed as chemical and biological weapons.

The race to create ABMs started during Cold War times when both the US and Soviet

Union feared complete obliteration from their counterparts. However, the 1972 Treaty on

Anti-Ballistic Missile systems restricted and limited the use and development ABMs.

Then, in 2002, the US withdrew from the treaty and continued its plans to build a defense

system in Europe.

The proposed defense system, which is projected to be functional by 2015, is

capable of deterring ballistic missiles coming anywhere from the Middle East to North

Korea. The US claims that this system has the potential to further the fight against

terrorism as well as to enhance the security of the NATO alliance.1 The specifics of the

plan include ten interceptors to be based in Poland and a midcourse radar system located

in Czech Republic. The interceptors, which are almost identical to the US interceptors in

Alaska and California, are defensive tools, with the ability to destroy incoming missiles.

The radar system is more of a tracking than surveillance device, as it is able to follow

missiles after they have been launched.2 In early February 2008, both states agreed to

host the defense shield, but negotiations are still underway.

Threatened by the proposed defense system, Russia has continually voiced its

adamant disapproval of the US’s plans, concerned that the system will impede its own

defenses and ultimately be used against them. Former Russian President Vladimir Putin 1 MDA, “Proposed Missile Defense Assets in Europe,” 15 June 2007, http://www.mda.mil/mdaLink/pdf/euroassets.pdf 2 Ibid

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stated that the US’s refusal to negotiate the location of the defense system might

eventually lead to an arms race, and inevitable mutual destruction. Putin put his words

into action by suspending Russia’s participation in the 1990 Treaty on Conventional

Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). By pulling out of this treaty, Russia was no longer

obligated to allow NATO states to inspect military sites or to restrict its weapon

proliferation.3 Currently, Russia has succeeded in building and testing new missiles that

are more advanced and undetectable by US defenses. It is clear that Russia will not back

down and allow the US to build its defense system without coming to a compromise or

agreement.

Many attempts to alleviate this issue have been made in the past. At the 2007 G8

summit in Germany, Putin announced a plan to use the radar system in Azerbaijan

instead of Poland. Putin also proposed that Russia and the US work jointly to operate the

defense system.4 However, the US looked unfavorably upon the suggestion, claiming

that Poland and Czech Republic are better strategic locations and that the capabilities of

the radar in Azerbaijan are inadequate. The US was also hesitant to share such a

powerful national defense system with another state.5 On May 5th 2008, the US and

Russia both signed the Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation. This agreement

provides both states with a framework for strengthening ties and working together

towards the implementation of peaceful uses of nuclear energy. However, the agreement

only acknowledges that both states disagree on the missile defense system; it does not

resolve the issue.6 On a global level, the UN has set up committees to prepare a 2010

Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which would aim to advance

disarmament. Minor steps toward a solution have been made, but a multilateral effort is

still needed. 3 BBC News Online, “Russia Suspends Arms Control Pact,” 14 July 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6898690.stm 4 C.J Chivers, “Putin Offers Alternatives on Missile Defense,” The New York Times, 8 June 2007, http://www.nytimes.com 5 Thom Shanker, “US to Keep Europe as Site for Missile Defense,” 15 June 2007, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com 6 US Department of State, “U.S.-Russia Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation (123 Agreement)”, 15 May 2008, http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/104917.htm

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Issues of national security and nuclear weapons concern everyone on a local,

national, and global scale. The tension between the US and Russia is reminiscent of the

Cold War. For half a century, these two states engaged in a bitter rivalry, building up

their arms and engaging in proxy wars. Although the Cold War mainly concerned the US

and Russia, many other states entered into war and were drastically affected. It is

important for the welfare of everyone that the tensions between the West and Russia do

not escalate into another arms race, because with today’s technological advancements

nuclear warfare would undoubtedly lead to turmoil and devastation.

Chronology 1990 – 1992: The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe

The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, more familiarly

known as the CFE Treaty, was drafted to ensure that states follow equal standards and

limits regarding military equipment. The states involved included all members of NATO

and the Warsaw Pact.7 The Treaty established equal ceilings and national limits for

major military weapons, such as tanks, combat vehicles and attack helicopters. All states

were given 40 months to adjust their military arsenal so that after that time period, all

regulations and stipends would be met. Excess equipment and armory had to be

destroyed. The CFE finally went into action on 17 July 1992.8 The Treaty was intended

to increase security and stability within Europe and prevent either NATO or Warsaw

member from having the ability to conduct surprise attacks. However, years later, many

states started to accuse others of violating treaty rules, resulting in frustration and anxiety.

Arguments over this treaty created the backdrop for heated tensions between the US and

Russia.

7 Center For Defense Information, “Russia and the CFE Treaty: The Limits of Coercion,” 1 December 2007, http://www.cdi.org 8 Federation of American Scientists, “Treaty on Convention Forces in Europe,” http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/cfe/index.html (accessed 1 July 2008)

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2002: US Announces Plan for Missile Defense System in Eastern Europe

Since 2002, the US has engaged in ongoing talks with Poland and the Czech

Republic about the possibility of installing an anti-ballistic missile defense system in the

two states. With the number of states possessing ballistic missile technology rapidly

growing, the US felt it was in the best interest of the US and Europe to create a defense

system that had the capability to protect against rogue missiles. Over the years, leaders

from all three states met and discussed the details of the potential plans. Formal

negotiations did not begin until February 2007. After gaining knowledge of the missile

development programs and testing facilities present in both North Korea and Iran, the US

made it their goal to create a system that could potentially track and deter missiles

coming from those two states. A successful system would strengthen trans-Atlantic ties

and reflect the US’s dedication towards protecting European security.9 However,

Russian officials believe that although the US may be claiming to further its fight against

terrorism, most states and extremists groups do not have access to ballistic missiles and

usually resort to other destructive tactics.

2002: Russia Adamantly Disapproves of US’s Anti-Ballistic Missile System Plans

Former Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the defense system ever

since it was first announced in 2002. Given the close proximity of the defense system to

Russia, Putin voiced great concern that the system posed a threat to the state’s national

security. Believing that the system could be used against Russia, Putin notified the US

that if negotiations were not made Russia would take military action. This event was all

too reminiscent of the Cold War.10

To understand Russia’s concern, one must be familiar with the specifics of the

US’s plan. Ultimately, the plan calls for ten interceptors to be placed in Poland, and a 9 MDA, “Proposed Missile Defense Assets in Europe,” 15 June 2007, http://www.mda.mil/mdaLink/pdf/euroassets.pdf 10 USA Today, “General says Russia will counter U.S. missile defense plans,” 27 May 2008, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-05-27-us-russia_N.htm

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radar system to be based in Czech Republic. Each interceptor would be capable of

deploying a hit-to-kill vehicle directly above the Earth’s surface to destroy targeted

missiles. Any resulting debris from a successful mission would disintegrate and burn en

route to the Earth’s atmosphere. The X-band radar system in Czech Republic would use

information gathered from land and sea-based sensors to track and monitor launched

missiles that pose a direct threat. The US claims that the emissions of the ray beams are

harmless to surrounding villages and towns, posing no threat to human life. Together, the

interceptors and radar system would work to track and deter ballistic missiles.11 The

tensions between the US and Russia only grew after details of the Defense plan were

made public. Although the anti-ballistic missile system provides Europe with greater

security, it also fosters frustration with neighboring states.

June 2007: Russia Proposes Azerbaijan as Alternative Location

President Putin expressed Russia’s deep concern and frustration regarding the US

missile defense system. On 8 June 2007, he proposed a solution that would combine

Russian and American interests into a shared missile defense system. Putin’s two part

deal included using a preexisting radar in Azerbaijan’s Caucasus Mountains. The deal

stated that Russia would not object to interceptors being placed in Iraq, Turkey, or in the

seas. Overall, this plan would replace the interceptors and radar that the US intended to

deploy in Poland and the Czech Republic. Although Putin was confident that this would

be the stepping stone towards strengthened US-Russia relations, he was disproved when

President Bush quickly voiced his doubts over the feasibility of the plan. NATO

Secretary-General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, discussed how Azerbaijan would not be an

ideal location because of its close proximity to launch sites in Iran.

11 MDA, “Proposed Missile Defense Assets in Europe,” 15 June 2007, http://www.mda.mil/mdaLink/pdf/euroassets.pdf

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June 2007: US Rejects Russia Azerbaijan Proposal Many analysts have doubted the capabilities of the Russian-operated radar system,

stating that the radar is not as technologically advanced as the one the US plans to locate

in Czech Republic. Azerbaijan’s radar serves as an early warning system, capable of

spotting missiles in a wide range but incapable of tracking the missiles as they approach a

target. The X-band radar, proposed for the Czech Republic, would have the ability to

track missiles mid flight and then communicate with interceptors to ensure that they

travel directly to the missiles.12 A week later, US Secretary General, Robert Gates,

announced that despite the generous offer from Russia, the US would not waver in its

plans to set up a defense system in Eastern Europe. Gates reinforced the idea of having

the Russian-operated radar system as a complement to the US system, but not as a

replacement. Russian officials publicly announced that if the US went ahead with the

missile defense plans without addressing Russia’s concerns, they would not hesitate to

retarget missiles on Europe. Although many believed that bilateral talks between the US

and Russia would lead to a peaceful solution and an end to Cold War-like tensions, the

US’s decision to continue its plans only intensified bitter feelings between the two states.

July 2007: Russia Suspends Agreement with CFE Treaty Concerned with the hypocrisy surrounding the CFE Treaty, former president

Vladimir Putin decided to suspend Russia’s participation in the treaty. He officially

signed a federal decree, relieving Russia from obliging to the treaty’s military

restrictions, on 14 July 2007. Although Putin did not fully withdraw from the pact, the

suspension meant that Russia would not have to submit to military inspections or give up

any information unwillingly.13 The United State’s plans to establish a missile defense

system in Poland and the Czech Republic is a major reason that drove Putin to suspend

agreement with the treaty. Russia believed that creation of such military bases was both

12 Victor Yasmann, “Russia: Is Putin's Azerbaijan Radar Proposal Serious?” 9 June 2007, http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/news/2007/space-070608-rferl03.htm 13 BBC News Online, “Russia Suspends Arms Control Pact,” 14 July 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6898690.stm

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an encroachment on the guidelines of the treaty as well as a direct threat to Russian

security. Seeing that the U.S did not make any adjustments to accommodate Russia’s

concerns, Putin decided to enact the landmark moratorium. Many NATO members

believed that Russia’s actions were a step towards further instability and chaos rather

than a step towards peace.

February 2008: Poland and Czech Republic Agree to Host Missile Defense System Only after extended negotiations and business deals did Poland and the Czech

Republic agree to the terms of the US missile defense system. Because of Russia’s

intensifying threats, both states pushed Washington to offer more security guarantees.

Establishing this unit will foster new business, military and security alliances between

Eastern Europe and the United States. In February of 2008, Poland officially agreed to

the US’s plans. Russia warned that if Poland and the Czech Republic went ahead with

the plans it would reinstate missile bases closer to its western borders. Thus, to

compensate for the risks Poland would incur by hosting the missile defense system, the

US agreed to aid and support military modernization in both air and land facilities.14 The

Czech Republic also agreed in principle to the US’s plans in late February 2008. Minor

details still need to be worked out, such as environmental protection issues, and

negotiations remain open. Many officials hope that the construction efforts of the

defense shield will foster economic growth and help local companies profit.

May 2008: Joint Declaration and the 123 Agreement In the same month that agreements were reached among Poland, the Czech

Republic, and the US, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia

will continue to defend its national interests, and only enter confrontation if provoked.

Both states have stood by their policies, unwilling to compromise their military strategies.

However, in early May 2008, the US and Russia signed a landmark nuclear pact titled the

14 Karen DeYoung, “U.S., Poland Closer to Deal on Missile Defense,” The Washington Post, 2 February 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/01/AR2008020101910.html

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123 agreement. This agreement is intended to set the framework for peaceful uses of

nuclear technology for both Russia and the US.15 Putin and Bush have recently made

several efforts to sustain a healthy relationship between their respective states. Both

agreed on a future missile defense system that would offer international security. But

regarding current situations, Putin continued to denounce the US’s plans in Poland and

the Czech Republic. In April 2008, both Presidents also drafted and signed the Strategic

Framework Declaration, also known as the Joint Declaration. The Declaration discusses

ways for the two states to share the responsibility against the spread of terrorism and the

misuse of weapons of mass destruction. Most importantly, it outlines ways to promote

international security in a world that is constantly facing new threats.16 However, the

Joint Declaration did not solve any issues regarding the missile defense system, which

Russia still adamantly disapproves of. The Declaration does attest to the efforts made by

both states to strive for a healthy relationship.

June 2008: Russia Begins Mass Production of Strategic Missiles

In June 2008, Russia reported successfully testing newly produced ballistic

missiles. Russian officials claim that the unpredictable pathway of the RS-24 missile

allows it to penetrate through any defense shield. This indicates that Poland’s interceptors

and Czech’s X-band radar are incapable of destroying it.17 In response to Russia’s

expression of military strength, the US reiterated that the defense system in Eastern

Europe is of no threat to Russia. Regardless, Russia continued to build and test new and

more advanced missiles. Also, Putin reported the successful proliferation of the Topol-M

ballistic missiles. This missile maneuvers in a zigzag fashion, allowing it to fly

undetected by radar systems. Former President Putin blatantly warned the US that he

15 US Department of State, “U.S.-Russia Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation (123 Agreement)”, 15 May 2008, http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/104917.htm 16 The White House, “Fact Sheet: U.S.-Russia Strategic Framework Declaration,” April 2008, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/04/20080406-5.html 17 Padraic Flanagan, “Russia Arms Warning to the US,” The Sunday Express, 20 July 2008, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/8336/Russia+arms+warning+to+U.S.

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could point Russia’s new arsenal of weapons at any state, specifically the states destined

to host the US defense system.18

5 November 2008: New US President, Barack Obama, Challenged by Russia On 5 November 2008, Barack Obama was elected President of the United States.

Barely one hour after the news, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev publicly stated his

intentions of deploying “missiles in Kaliningrad that could attack U.S. military targets in

Poland.”19 Since the US has not yet carried out their plan of placing interceptors in

Poland, the targets Medvedev was referring to do not really exist. However, the

announcement caused controversy worldwide. The US expressed disappointment

regarding the statement by Medvedev, while Poland was outraged and their fears of

retaliation from Russia strengthened, and NATO became very concerned.20 The

announcement exemplified the fact that Russia still felt cornered by the US missile

defense plan, and exhibited that Russia-US relations were still strained.

Actors and Interests The United States of America

The US has been extensively involved in missile development programs in Eastern

Europe for decades. Former president Ronald Regan introduced the Strategic Defense

Initiative in 1983. This program was designed to protect the state from attacks against

nuclear ballistic missiles.21 Regan’s program became the foundation for future anti-

ballistic measures. But it was not until former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

organized the Missile Defense Agency that the US actively pursued the deployment of an

anti-ballistic missile system in Eastern Europe. The official mission statement of the

18 USA Today, “General says Russia will counter U.S. missile defense plans,” 27 May 2008, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-05-27-us-russia_N.htm 19 EastWest Institute, “President-Elect Obama and the Russian Challenge,” 7 November 2008, http://www.iews.org/announcements/news/index.cfm?title=News&view=detail&nid=675&aid=6499 (accessed November 19, 2008). 20 Ibid. 21 “Strategic Defense Initiative,” Wikipedia, 11 July 2008, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative

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organization is to “To develop and field an integrated, layered, ballistic missile defense

system to defend the United States, its deployed forces, allies, and friends against all

ranges of enemy ballistic missiles in all phases of flight.”22 For such reasons, the US

pushed for a European based defense system. President Bush claims that extra security is

only for the good of Poland, the Czech Republic, and NATO. Unlike many other

European states who doubt the validity of a serious ballistic missile threat, the US has

officially declared its views on the subject. Believing that Iran and North Korea pose a

legitimate threat to global safety, the Bush administration drafted the anti-ballistic missile

plan to free states from the fear of terrorism.

Despite the US’s seemingly good intentions, the plan for a defense system was

met with great criticism. Russia in particular, interpreting the US’s moves as a direct

threat to its national security, made every attempt to thwart the US’s actions. The major

players in the dilemma over the defense system are clearly Russia and the US. Hoping to

ease tensions and frustrations, Bush repeatedly assured former President Putin that the

system would in no way be a treat to Russia. The MDA’s goal is to install an integrated

defense system that will discourage other rogue states from even considering ballistic

missile proliferation. Optimally, the US would like to see the construction of an

interceptor site and midcourse radar in Poland and the Czech Republic. After already

witnessing the success of the interceptors located in Alaska and California, the Bush

administration is confident that Poland’s more enhanced interceptors will be just as

effective. Likewise, the radar that is to be installed in Czech Republic is currently

located in the Marshall Islands. It has run successfully for the past 10 years. There have

been no documented cases of harmful effects caused by the radar system on nearby

communities.23 Thus, the US is hopeful that if everything goes as planned, extra security

for itself and its allies will be achieved.

22 Mission Defense Agency, “Mission,” http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/aboutus.html (accessed 5 July 2008) 23 Missile Defense Agency, “Fact Sheet: European Capability Initiative,” July 2008, http://www.mda.mil/mdaLink/pdf/esi.pdf

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Seeing that more and more regimes have gained access to ballistic missiles, the US

believes that the only way to combat the intensifying threat is to increase defensive

capabilities. The US claims that the real motivation behind the missile defense system is

to achieve better security for itself and its allies. The highly publicized nuclear tests and

missile launches in Iran and North Korea gave the Bush administration sufficient

evidence to deploy a comprehensive anti-ballistic missile system. For example, in

November 2006, Iran conducted a series of military exercises aimed at enhancing and

unifying the state’s offensive capabilities. Titled the Great Prophet II, Iran’s military

initiative was seen globally as a sign of aggression and show of force.24 A more unified

shield over Europe and a strongly connected system of allies are just a couple of the main

goals the US hopes to reach by construction a defense system.

A main issue the US has to address is coming to terms with Russia. Putin’s prior

idea of stationing a radar system in former the USSR territory of Azerbaijan did not go

over well with US officials. However, admiring Russia’s efforts to compromise, Bush

promised to engage in a future security system that would require international efforts,

meaning that both the US and Russia would be involved in a joint defense program. The

123 Agreements and Join Declaration are also testaments of progress made towards a

more transparent and healthier relationship between the US and Russia regarding military

security.

Russia For almost 30 years, starting in 1972, the US and Russia were committed to the

Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which kept the two states on equal levels in terms of

defense systems. Realizing the devastating effects of ballistic missiles, the US and

Russia agreed to prevent an arms race by signing a treaty that limited their offensive and

defensive capabilities. The ABM treaty has often been viewed as “the cornerstone of

strategic stability”, and any measure taken against the treaty would disrupt international

24 Neda Bolourchi, “Iran’s Defensive Posturing,” Asia Times Online, 23 November 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HK23Ak03.html

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security.25 Russian officials repeatedly stood by the original treaty, disapproving of any

attempts made by the US to modify it. In the late 1990s, the US was focused on

establishing an anti-ballistic missile defense system in Alaska. However, this action

would have exceeded the limitations of the ABM treaty, and the US decided to withdraw

from the treaty. Russia officially stated that the US’s actions could cause further

destruction, leading to a potential arms race and imbalance of power. Russia’s reaction

towards the development of a defense system in Eastern Europe was similar if not

identical. Russian officials threatened that it would also consider backing out of military

related treaties and agreements if deemed necessary. Just as the US announced plans of

building a system in Poland the Czech Republic, Russia suspended its obligation to the

Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty.

Believing that the US was gaining superiority in missile defense, Russia tried to

convince the Bush administration to reconsider its plans in Poland and the Czech

Republic. Considering the close proximity of Poland and the Czech Republic to Russia,

former President Putin made clear to the US that the proposed defense system would

infringe upon his state’s security, and give him just reason to retaliate. Although US

officials reported that the anti-ballistic missile system does not have the potential to harm

Russia, Putin steadfastly denounced the plans. Ultimately, Putin hoped that the US

would want to cooperate and unite with Russia to create a universal program that would

strengthen international security as a whole.

In the late 1990s, Russia brainstormed numerous programs and initiatives that

would help regulate arms control and ease tension between armed nations. Such a

diplomatic shield was possible under Russia’s proposed Global Missile and Missile

Technology Non-Proliferation Control System.26 Introduced in 1999, this program would

increase transparency between nations with offensive and defensive ballistic systems,

therefore easing feelings of threat or fear. The program would also provide incentives to

25 Amy Woolf, “National Missile Defense: Russia’s Reaction,” 14 June 2002, https://www.policyarchive.org/bitstream/handle/10207/1208/RL30967_20020614.pdf?sequence=2 26 Ibid

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nations to give up their military equipment in exchange for other goods. Thus, in the end,

states would experience greater communication and missile proliferation would be at an

all time low. However optimal this program would have been for Russia, US officials

were somewhat hesitant to agree. Although the Bush and Clinton administration both

agreed with Russia’s intent, replacing the defensive system with this program was still

out of the question. Almost a decade later, in 2007, Putin offered the US an alternative to

the proposed radar system in the Czech Republic. Putin said that the US and Russia

could jointly operate and use the already present radar system in Azerbaijan. However,

the US refused the offer, claiming that the radar to be installed in the Czech Republic will

have higher accuracy and tracking capabilities.27 Putin’s proposal was however also a

move of self gain, for Russia would have been able to better its’ reputation.

Poland and the Czech Republic Both Poland and the Czech Republic are fairly young members of NATO, only

achieving membership in March 1999. These former communist nations have made

progress in forming more modernized foreign polices that are no longer entangled with

Soviet Union ideals. Poland has been successful in reorganizing and renewing its

military. The state reflects western principles of democratization and freedom.28 Both

states have officially denounced terrorists and contributed to the Global War on

Terrorism.29 History shows how Poland and the Czech Republic have progressively

grown out of Russia’s sphere of influence, and taken on more modern identities,

reflective of their allies’ policies. In terms of missile defense systems, Poland cautiously

agreed with the US’s plans, fearing retribution from Russia and other states while the

Czech Republic has been more confident about plans after sorting out technicalities.

27 Thom Shanker, “US to Keep Europe as Site for Missile Defense,” 15 June 2007, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com 28 US Department of State, “Background Note: Poland,” June 2008, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2875.htm#foreign 29 US Department of State, “Background Note: Czech Republic,” January 2008, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3237.htm#defense

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Formal talks on the missile defense system between the US and Poland began in

late May 2007. Although the Bush administration has previously brought up the idea of

constructing a security shield over Europe, the plan was not solidified until May. After

several rounds of negotiations, the US and Poland finally agreed on a deal. Poland never

truly considered missile threats from Iran and North Korea as imminent, despite their

close proximity. Officials agreed that such nations do not have the capability of

producing intricate warfare equipment.30 Thus, Poland said that it only agrees with the

US’s plans with the intentions of strengthening its alliance with the West and promoting

ideals of peace.31 In exchange, the US has agreed to help the state modernize its land and

air defense. Taking into consideration that Russia is now a strong threat to Polish

security, Poland officials felt it was only necessary for the US upgrade its armed forces.

More specifically, Poland wants to install Patriot missile batteries that will face Russia

and Belarus. The Bush administration has been funding Poland annually with USD $27

million, and has promised to increase the military funding by an extra USD $20 million.32

After the US ensured Poland that it would be getting extensive military aid and a fortified

alliance, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Bush closed the deal early

July 2008.

The Czech Republic, compared to Poland, has taken a more subtle approach with

the US regarding the anti-ballistic missile defense system. Both Poland and the Czech

Republic did agree to synchronize their efforts to achieve more bargaining power with

the US. Prime Ministers Donald Tusk and Mirek Topolanek collaborated to ensure that

their states interests would be protected if the US’s plans were executed. One major area

of concern for many Czechs involved the environmental repercussions of such a massive

radar system. Topolanek said that he would not agree to the plans if strict environmental

30 Karen DeYoung, “U.S., Poland Closer to Deal on Missile Defense,” 2 February 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/01/AR2008020101910.html 31 Janusz Bugajski and Ilona Teleki, America’s New Allies: Central-Eastern Europe and the Transatlantic Link (Washington D.C: The CSIS Press,2006), 105. 32 Yahoo News, “Poland says US missile shield terms inadequate,” 5 July 2008, http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20080705/884/twl-poland-says-us-missile-shield-terms.html

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procedures were not guaranteed.33 There has also been slight stipulation that the US

endorsed a Visa Waiver Program, allowing Czechs to travel to the US without a visa, in

hopes that it would persuade Prime Minister Topolanek to agree to host the radar system.

However, both states claim that there is no connection between the two proposals.34 In

early April 2008, the Czech and US governments officially agreed to move ahead with

plans. Parts of the deal included that the Czech Government would have ownership of

the radar base and all immoveable objects built by Americans. However all movable

objects, and the radar, would fall under US ownership. The US also agreed that it would

study the effects of the radar and ensure that the areas are protected from environmental

harm.35 Only after both Poland and the Czech Republic finally reached terms of

agreement did the missile defense system become a reality.

Possible Causes US Manipulation of Public Fears and Events

Many believe that the true reasons behind the construction of an anti-ballistic

missile system are not as pertinent to defense as they should be. Although the US may

claim that the system’s intent is to enhance international security, many remain spectacle.

Opponents of the defense system believe that the US’s plans are just another example of

its attempts for global domination. The Bush administration has been alleged of

heightened public fears about the threat of ballistic missiles. In July 2006, North Korea

launched and tested a series of missiles, and some were said to be able to reach US

territory. The tests sparked outcry from many world powers, which condemned North

Korea’s actions as provocative and threatening. Some believe that North Korea’s actions

provided the US with a perfect pretext for revisiting the controversial anti ballistic missile

system plan. The media caught hold of this information and soon enough the public

33 People’s Daily Online, “Czech Republic, U.S. settle key issues in radar treaty,” 15 May 2008, http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90853/6411726.html 34 US Department of State, “Fact Sheet: Czech Prime Minister Topolanek’s Visit to the U.S.: A Growing Partnership,” 28 February 2008, http://prague.usembassy.gov/prime_minister_topolaneks_visit_to_the_us.html 35 People’s Daily Online, “Czech Republic, U.S. settle key issues in radar treaty,” 15 May 2008, http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90853/6411726.html

PhilMUN 2009 16

feared the possibility of being attacked by North Korean missiles. However, that same

year, in June, India and Pakistan both successfully tested missiles capable of inflicting

nuclear destruction. The US did not react harshly toward those states.36 The Bush

Administration also claimed that Iran poses an immediate threat to international security,

citing the state’s extensive nuclear program.

However, military experts predict that Iran will not have the capability of long

range missiles until 2015.37 Even if the state does acquire the means of inflicting harm

on the US or other allies, the threat could be countered by other measures. The US’s

nuclear and defense arsenals are superior to those of Iran or North Korea, but many

Americans were influenced into thinking that the threat of warfare was imminent, and

needed immediate attention. Addressing people’s concerns, the US made public the idea

of installing a defense system in Europe to protect itself and other allies from terrorist

actions. The pretense of developing a system to fight against global terrorism was not

convincing to everyone.38 Others believe that the system would allow the US to acquire

more strategic alliances with Eastern Europe as well as increase its opportunity for space

domination. Thus, many think that had the Bush administration not magnified tensions

with Iran and North Korea, nor instilled fear within Americans, the majority would not

see a justified reason for developing an overseas defense system.

Maintaining US International Security The US has continuously discussed the dangers of nuclear warfare and set its

political agenda to involve strengthening defense. After receiving news that many states,

most particularity North Korea and Iran have obtained missile capabilities, the US made

plans to develop a defense system that would make nuclear weapons seem obsolete and

ineffective. In an effort to protect its own interests as well as the safety of its allies, the

36 John Chan, “North Korean Missile Crisis—Another Example of Unbridled US Militarism,” 29 June 2006, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/jun2006/nkor-j29.shtml 37 Daryl Kimball, “Rethink European Missile Defense,” July 2008, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_07-08/focus.asp 38 John Chan, “North Korean Missile Crisis—Another Example of Unbridled US Militarism,” 29 June 2006, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/jun2006/nkor-j29.shtml

PhilMUN 2009 17

US began to engage in talks with Poland and the Czech Republic. This immediately

created tension between the US, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Despite the US’s repeated

attempts to quell Russia’s concerns that the defense system would be a threat to them,

Russia blatantly threatened Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia warned that it would

direct its military arsenal at them if it was necessary to protect Russian security.

However, the US claims that it only went ahead with the proposal for an antimissile

system to shield itself from rogue nations. As of 2008, Iran has successfully launched

Shahab-3 missiles, which are capable of traveling over 1,000 miles.39 Although Russia

claims that this distance is minimal and therefore evidence that the defense shield is

unnecessary, the US believes that Iran exemplifies how more states will achieve the

capability of long-range missile warfare in the near future. Secretary of State

Condoleezza Rice publicly denounced Iran’s actions, declaring that “We face with the

Iranians, and so do our allies and friends, a growing missile threat that is getting ever

longer and ever deeper, and where the Iranian appetite for nuclear technology ... is still

unchecked.”40 Clearly, the US believes that the cause of the anti ballistic missile crisis is

based on the fact that more and more states are developing weapons. And the only way

to maintain peace is to build a system that will hopefully deter nations from proliferating

weapons in the first place.

The Obstacle of Russian Intervention Although reasons behind why the US made plans to build a defense system may

vary, the one thing that remains constant is the fact that the proposal sparked outrage with

Russian authorities. One of the major obstacles the US has faced in its efforts to develop

this antimissile shield is disapproval by the Czech Republic, Poland and Russia. Surveys

taken early in 2008 showed that more than 68 percent of Czechs did not want their state

to be involved in the defense system in any capacity. Most believed that hosting a radar

39 BBC News, “Iran Sends Missile Test Warning,” 9 July 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7496765.stm 40 DW-World News, “US, Czech Republic Seal Anti-Missile Radar System Deal,” 7 August 2008, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3469159,00.html

PhilMUN 2009 18

system would actually put their state at a greater risk than bolster its security.41 Many

Polish officials also never agreed with the US’s actual reasons for wanting to develop the

shield. However, allowing the US to establish interceptors in Poland was an acceptable

cost for strengthened ties with a superpower like the US. Eventually after many talks and

negotiations, Poland and the Czech Republic agreed to the US’s plans, much to Russia’s

dismay. The proposal for an anti ballistic missile system did was not initially popular,

but the only state to truly confront the US about the issue was Russia. Many believe that

had Russia not taken such a strong stance against the system, construction efforts would

already be under way. A possible cause that led to this anti missile defense attitude stems

from Russian fears that the system poses both current and future threats to its security.

Fyodor Lukyanov a Russian foreign affairs spokesman summed up the state’s concerns.

He stated that “America keeps saying its anti-missile system will not target Russia and to

suggest otherwise would be absurd because Russia can overcome it. Well, Russia could

overcome it today but what about in 15 years' time, when it is not just two facilities but a

global system?”42 Russia believes that it is voicing the concerns of many other nations,

such as China, in saying that if the US goes ahead with current plans, there will be no

hope of unifying international security in the future. Another possible point of contention

between the US and Russia can be traced back to the ABM Treaty. While the US thought

it was outdated and not fit for current circumstances, Russia still regarded the treaty as

the foundation for arms reduction. Russia’s refusal to ratify the treaty put both states on

bad terms.43 It was a combination of the US’s drive to undermine the treaty and Russian

insecurities that led both the states to disagree on the development of an anti missile

system.

41 Ibid 42 BBC News, “Viewpoint: Russia’s Missile Fears,” 7 June 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6726839.stm 43 Eugene Miasnikov, “ABM Treaty Modification: Should Russia Agree?” 17 July 2000, http://www.armscontrol.ru/Start/abm-a.htm

PhilMUN 2009 19

Comparison of Possible Causes The issue at hand has multiple possible causes, some which overlap and some

which conflict. Some experts believe that the whole idea of a missile system is

unnecessary, and just a result of media hype and government conspiracy. The fact that

some Iranian missiles do not even have the capability to reach US territory raises

speculation. However, the US government has repeatedly cited instances of missile tests

that prove there are certain rogue nations with power to cause destruction on a large

scale. But are the military arsenals of such “terrorist” nations even a match to US

weaponry? The Bush administration has stressed that it is not matter of who has better

facilities but of protecting international security. The defense system is also a measure

that will hopefully reduce arms proliferation all together in the near future. Clearly, there

are contending ideas of why the idea of a defense system was initiated in the first place.

There are also various perceptions of why Russia has relentlessly hindered US efforts.

Russian officials have publicly stated that if they allow the US to go through with the

defense plans, it will only further divide the strategic framework of international security.

Projections and Implications Despite the US’s attempts to ease Russia’s insecurities about the missile defense

system, Russia directed its efforts to upgrading its military arsenal. Under Putin’s watch,

Russia reported the highest defense budgets since the Soviet era. In 2007, the state

successfully tested and procured the Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile, a symbol

of the lengths Russia would go to compete with US capabilities.44 Clearly, a main

concern is that history will repeat itself and that a rivalry between the US and Russia will

escalate to something bigger. Some analysts believe that if communication between the

two states cease and negotiations are minimal, an arms race will be inevitable.

In May 2008, Russia continued its agenda against the US and signed a nuclear

deal with China. Current President Medvedev has stood by Putin’s policies, claiming

44 Global Security, “Russia Announces Successful Topol Ballistic Missile Test,” 18 November 2007, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2007/russia-071018-rianovosti02.htm

PhilMUN 2009 20

that the US’s plans for a missile defense system will disrupt international peace. Chinese

President Hu Jintao joined Russia’s opposition, also cautioning the US against deploying

any type of military equipment in space, a future battleground. Both China and Russia

share similar goals, such as preventing the US from dominating global defense. The

newfound partnership between China and Russia does not help the US. Many other

states, including China, are upset with NATO for granting ex-soviet Georgia and Ukraine

membership. Thus, if they share similar views regarding missile defense, there is a great

chance that more and more states may join forces to prevent the US from going through

with its plans.45

What worries analysts the most is that the large role Russia plays in exporting

military equipment may eventually give them the financial backing to exceed US forces.

Russia does business with over 70 states, including many rogue nations that the US fears

may misuse the weaponry or misdirect weapons to extremist organizations. In 2007,

Israeli officials denounced Russia’s actions, claiming that the group Hezbollah has

caused mass destruction and numerous causalities using Russian procured tanks and

weaponry.46 As long as Russia feels the need to enhance its military, the state will

continue to sell arms to other nations, indirectly fueling terrorism. Increased capital in

Russia’s hands can lead to a variety of outcomes. Russia could invest towards acquiring

more military equipment, which could lead to a further imbalance of power. Regardless,

the future looks bleak with respect to relations between Russia and the US.

45 USA Today, “China, Russia Sign Nuclear Deal,” 23 May 2008, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-05-23-china-russia_N.htm 46 USA Today, “Russia Intensifies Efforts to Rebuild its Military Machine,” 12 February 2007, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-02-12-russia-military_x.htm

PhilMUN 2009 21

Conclusion Since 2007, when formal negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic finally

started, the idea of an anti ballistic missile defense system in Eastern Europe was

formulated. The proposed system, which would be effective from the Middle East to

North Korea, involves basing ten interceptors in Poland and a midcourse radar system in

Czech Republic. The US claims that the system is purely for defensive reasons, and is a

response to the numerous ongoing missile tests by rogue nations. However, many other

states, Russia in particular, do not agree with the US’s motives and believe the plan is

unnecessary. Due to the close proximity of the defense system to Russian soil, it is no

surprise that Russian officials have staunchly denounced the US’s plans. In fact, former

president Putin tried to compromise with the US by offering Azerbaijan as an alternative

location for hosting the radar. The US has announced plans to collaborate with Russia on

future systems but insists on going ahead with its current visions in Eastern Europe. The

bitter tensions between Russia and the US have caused many to fear the potential of a

future arms race. Russia even suspended agreement with the CFE Treaty, a sign that it

would not be persuaded easily. To this day, some attempts to compromise have been

made, as evidenced by the Joint Declaration and 123 Agreement. However, no concrete

decision between the two parties has been settled. Russia has already started to join

forces with China against the US. It has also made substantial military investments.

With tensions high and the potential for destruction even greater, one wrong move could

set off a chain of catastrophic events.

PhilMUN 2009 22

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PhilMUN 2009 24

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