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Pablo GerchunoffLucas Llach

Un siglo de políticas económicasargentinas

emece

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334 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO

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338 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y El. DESENCANTO

el capital extranjero debe tomarse como un complemento y no como factordeterminante e irreemplazable del desarrollo.'

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OTRO GOLPE DE SUERTETérminos del intercambio externo , 1960=100

160.0

150.0

140.0

130.0

120.0

110.0

100.090.0

80.0

70.0

60.0 ' 1--r-+o v LO m o N a io m o N vv v v v a v^ v1 Un Ln Ln io io iom m m m m m m m m m m m m

Fuente: apéndice estadístico.

LOm m m m

LO

LOS SOCIOS SOCIALISTASExportación a países socialistas

como % de las exportaciones argentinas

8

16

14

12

10

86

4

2

o1972 1973

Fuente: Di Tella (1983).

1974 1975 1976

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VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 343

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VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 345

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348 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO

UN CUADRO DESMEJORADOIndicadores económicos durante el peronismo

14 -r

12 +

1 0+

8+

6+

4+

2+

0 t r-^1973 1974 1975

Crecimiento ( escala izquierda)Inflación ( escala derecha)Déficit del sector público ( escala izquierda)

Fuente : apéndice estadístico.

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

o

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VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 355

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el caos sembrado por el gobierno marxista de Allende solamente aceleró loscambios socializantes graduales que se fueron introduciendo en Chile ininte-rrumpidamente desde mediados de la década del 30.8

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-Tasa nominal activa de interés, anual-Inflación mayorista anual-Tasa de interés real anual

Fuente: datos provistos por Carlos Winograd.

DINERO BARATOTasa de interés activa, nominal y real, antes de 1977

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360

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La actual situación financiera es típica de un ajuste transitorio debido, engran medida, a la sobreestimación por parte de los empresarios de la tasade inflación.9

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DIVERGENCIATasas trimestrales de inflación local e internacional

y de devaluación

------ Ta,a de deoalaaalón

----Tosa de Intlac- ote,mmonal

-Tasa de aeca daoen 1 tasa de ITadanmematlooal-in0ndon local minotlsta-Inlbcicn local _,_'do

--------------------------------------97911

Fuente : Canitrot ( 1981).

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r

VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 367

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368

LEJOS DEL MUNDOComercio argentino como porcentaje de su PBI

y del comercio mundial

0.0m m m

-Comercio exterior como % del P3l (escala izquierda)

Comercio argentino como % del comercio mundial (escala derecha)

m m m v un m Lom m m m m

3.000

.500

2.000

1.500

1.000

0.500

0.000

m m m m m

Fuente: Maddison (1995) y apéndice estadístico,

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370 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO

ABAJO EL ARANCELEvolución de la estructura arancelaria bajo Martínez de Hoz

08/78

Arancel

o mas ae 100%

• 70%-100%

-40%-70%

o 10%- 20%

0l%-10%

.o%

Fuente: De Pablo (1987).

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CUANDO EL TIPO DE CAMBIO IMPORTAExportaciones , i mportaciones y tipo de cambio real

12000.0

10000.0

8000.0

6000.0

4000.0

2000.0

0.01 976 1 977 1 978 1 979

O Exportaciones~Importaciones

0 Tipo de cambio real deflactado por IPM (1976=100)

Fuente: Winograd (1984) y apéndice estadístico.

1 980

T 10000

90.00

80.00

70.00

60,00

50.00

40.00

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LAS CUENTAS DEL PROCESOGastos e ingresos de la administración central , como % del PBI

30 r

25 +

20 +

15 +

1 0+

5

o

on r n ro m mm m m m m m

® Ingresos (% del PBI ) Gastos ( % del PSI)

Fuente: base de datos propia.

Los dueños de pequeños ahorros sufren silenciosamente, como la experien-cia muestra, estas enormes depredaciones. cuando habrían derribado a un go-bierno que les hubiese quitado una fracción de ese monto por medios más de-liberados pero más justos.10

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CRECIMIENTO CEROLa Argentina y el mundo en 1973-83

UN PROCESO NEGATIVOCrecimiento e inflación en 1973-83

Crecimiento - Inflación minorista

o PBI per capita 1e1973, en dólares de 1990o PBI per capas de 1983. en dólares de 1990

PBI per capita d e i 973, en dólares de 1990

PBI por Capea de 1983, en dólares de 1990

Europa: Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia e Italia.NICS: Taiwán, Tailandia y Corea del Sur,Mundo: muestra de 56 paises de Maddison (1995).

Fuente: Maddison (1995).

Fuente: apéndice estadistico.

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El ciclo de la ilusióny el desencantoUn siglo de políticas económicasargentinas

emecé

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386 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y El. DESENCANTO

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LA DÉCADA PERDIDACrecimiento comparado de la Argentina y otros países

de América latina

10000.09000.0

8000.07000.06000.05000.04000.03000.02000.01000.0

0.0

-1,52% anual

Argentina

-0.01% anual

6 grandes deAmérica latina

o PBI per cápita en 1982 0P81 per cápita en 1989

'Se trata de Brasil , Colombia, Chile, México, Perú y VenezuelaFuente: Maddison (1995).

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secundario.

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392 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y F.I. DESENCANTO

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFÍCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 395

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y el. DtFícll, GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 403

de inflación. Por otro lado. la inflación acumulada desdejunio (le 1985 habíameado presiones en el mercado de trabajo y había deteriorado un poco el ni-vel real de las tarifas públicas y el tipo de cambio.'

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AUSTRAL , ESTABILIZACIÓN Y DESPUÉSTasas mensuales de inflación minorista

15+

10+

5+

0 1Lo uf) u') In ll7 !n co co co CoaJ oJ m (A m OJ OJ Co OJ N C W W Co N OJ> 3 á >w <ñ Z W w Z w N f)C (n

Fuente: Machinea (1989),

yo soy monetarista, estructura!ista y todo lo que sea necesario para bajar lainflación, y si hay que recurrir a la macumba, también .7

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1 LA DEMOCRACIA 1' EL DIFÍCIL GOI31ERN0... (1983-1989) 409

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFÍCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 411

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416

laboral que impedía toda influencia del gobierno en la determinación desalarios, exceptuando obviamente los del sector público.

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EI, DIFICIL. GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 419

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El ciclo de la ilusióny el desencantoUn siglo de políticas económicasargentinas

emece

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GRANDES EXPECrArlvkS, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 423

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Las tendencias de la economía internacional durante los años 90pueden entenderse , desde una perspectiva histórica, como una prolonga-ción y una intensificación de las que venían manifestándose desde laposguerra . El proceso de interrelación creciente entre los varios merca-

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HISTORIA Y PREHISTORIA DE LA GLOBALIZACIÓNValor del comercio y la producción mundiales

(escala logarítmica , 1870=100)

Fuente: Maddison (1995).

Comercio

GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 427

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428 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO

GRANDES ExPECTAnvAS, G RA N DES... (1989-2001) 429

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DE LA HIPERINFLACIÓN A LA INFLACIÓN CEROVariación porcentual anual de los índices de precios

1980-88 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Precios al consumidor 287 4.924 1.344 84 17,5 7,4 3,9 1,6 0,1 0,3Precios mayoristas

Fuente: Lach (1997).

293 5.383 798 57 3,1 0,1 3 5,8 2,1 -0,9

GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, G RANDES... (1989-2001) 433

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437

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444

445

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446

GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... ( 1989-2001) 447

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448 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSION Y EL DESENCANTO

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U GRANDES ExNCCTATtv,as, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 451

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452

GRANDES EXPECLanvAS,GRANDES... (1989-2001) 453

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GRANDES ExpEcTATwAS,GRANDES...(1989-2001) 455

UN PROBLEMA DE PROPORCIONESDeuda externa como porcentaje de las exportaciones,

países seleccionados (2000)

700%

600%

500%

400%

300%

200%

1 00%

0%

Fuente: estadísticas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y de la Organización Mundial de Comercio.

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