Pacific NorthwestClimate Model Scenarios 2008

Pacific NorthwestClimate Model Scenarios 2008

Climate Impacts Group&

Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Washington

Eric Salathé Philip Mote

Valérie DulièreEmily Jump

19 ModelsFrom IPCCFourth Assessment

nationality model equilibrium sensitivity

TCR

BCCR n.a. n.a.

CCSM3 2.7 1.5

CGCM (T47) 3.4 1.9

CGCM (T63) 3.4 n.a.

CNRM n.a. 1.6

CSIRO 3.1 1.4

ECHAM5 3.4 2.2

ECHO-G 3.2 1.7

FGOALS 2.3 1.2

GFDL-CM2.0 2.9 1.6

GFDL-CM2.1 3.4 1.5

GISS-AOM n.a. n.a.

GISS-ER 2.7 1.5

HADCM3 3.3 2.0

HADGEM1 4.4 1.9

INMCM 2.1 1.6

IPSL 4.4 2.1

MIROC 4.0 2.1

MIROC-hires 4.3 2.6

PCM 2.1 1.3

Biases (20th c, minus NCEP)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GCMs

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

GCMs

20th century seasonal cycle

20th century trend

trend (C/century)

-0.4

0.00.00.10.1

0.30.40.4

0.5

0.60.70.7

0.80.80.80.9

1.01.01.11.11.1

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

FGOALSHADCMBCCR

GISS_AOMMIROC_3.2ECHAM5ECHO_g

HADGEM1GISS_er

PCM1GFDL2.1

IPSL

CSIRO3.5observedGFDL2.0

CGCM3.1_t63

CCSM3INMCM

CGCM3.1_t47MIROC_hi

CNRM

Observed Sea level pressure (NCEP)

Model Performance

observed

Ranked Model Performance

Emissions scenarios

IPCC Fourth Assessment

Glo

bal

PNW Temperature Change

10°F

0°F

Scenario Selection - T/P Scatter

2040s - 1980s PNW

Projected Temperature

temperature 2020s 2040s

(°C) old new old new

lowest 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9

average 1.1 1.2* 1.6 2.0*

highest 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.9

Projected Precipitation

precipitation 2020s 2040s

% old new old new

lowest -4 -9 -4 -11

average 2 1* 2 2*

highest 6 12 9 12

Future Storm Track Changes

North America Asia

Europe

NP

Stronger N AtlanticStorm track

Stronger N PacificStorm track

ULBRICH ET AL. 2008

Change from 1960-2000 to2080-2100

Composite of 16 Global Climate Models

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Grid cell

Percentage of change

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Grid cell

Percentage of change

IPSL

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Grid cell

Percentage of change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Grid cell

Percentage of change

ECHAM5

SRES A1B SRES B1

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88

Grid cell

Percentage of change

CCSM3

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88

Grid cell

Percentage of change

Percentages of change in the annual maximum daily precipitation with a 10 years return period for each grid cell between 1981-2000 and 2046-2065.

+12.2%

+18.8%

+11.4%

+10.8%

+11.8%

+10.6%

Projected Future Changes from Climate Models(2046-2065 versus 1981-2000)

Global models must be downscaled for regional studies

Downscaling -- Winter

Downscaling -- Summer

Mesoscale Climate Model Based on Regional Weather Model (MM5, WRF)

Nested grids 135-45-15 km

Advanced land-surface model (NOAH)

Forced by Global Climate Model output (boundary conditions)

observed sea level rise

1961-2003

1993-2003

1961-2003

1993-2003

Projected global SLR 2090s

Local vertical land motion

Verdonck (2006)

Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array

SLR Estimate

Components 2050 2100

NW Olympic Peninsula

Central & Southern

CoastPuget Sound

NW Olympic Peninsula

Central & Southern

CoastPuget Sound

Very Low

Global SLR 9 cm 18 cm

Atm. Dynamics -1 cm - 2 cm

VLM -20 cm - 5cm 0 cm - 40 cm -10 cm 0 cm

Total -12 cm (-5”) 3 cm (1”) 8 cm (3”) -24 cm (-9”) 6 cm (2”) 16 cm (6”)

Medium

Global SLR 15 cm 34 cm

Atm. Dynamics 0 cm 0 cm

VLM - 15 cm - 2.5 cm 0 cm -30 cm - 5 cm 0 cm

Total 0 cm (0”) 12.5 cm (5”) 15 cm (6”) 4 cm (2”) 29 cm (11”) 34 cm (13”)

Very High

Global SLR 38 cm 93 cm

Atm. Dynamics 7 cm 15 cm

VLM -10 cm 0 cm 10 cm - 20 cm 0 cm 20 cm

Total 35 cm (14”) 45 cm (18”) 55 cm (22”) 88 cm (35”) 108 cm (43”) 128 cm (50”)

SummarySummary

• Temp and precip: central values roughly the same as 2005 estimates

• 0.5F/decade warming and little change in annual total precip

• Increased likelihood of drier summers, wetter winters, heavy rains

• Range of projected temp, precip, sea level:no problem to serious consequences