NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting

February 1, 2011

Charles McCreeryDirector

NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Domestic Product Changes

PTWC Domestic Product Changes

Hawaii: Revised Product Format / Structure• Coordinate with Honolulu WFO• Coordinate with Hawaii Civil Defense• Implement Target: Mid-2011 after SCN

Am. Samoa – Samoa: New Product• Finalize Procedures / Criteria• Coordinate with Am. Samoa WSO & DHS• Coordinate with Samoa NDMO• Implement Target: Mid-2011 after SCN

Guam – CNMI: New Product• Develop Procedures / Criteria• Coordinate with Guam WFO• Coordinate with Guam & CNMI EM• Implement Target: Early 2012 after SCN

Common TWC Domestic Product Format

HEADERStandard NWS header with WMO and AWIPS codesUGC and VTEC linesMass News Disseminator

NARRATIVE ELEMENTSKey Changes Since Last Product for this EventStandard NWS HeadlineEvaluation / Recommended ActionMeaning / Implications of Alert LevelReference to Other Center’s ActionsFollow-Up Product Information

TABULAR INFORMATIONTsunami Observations and ForecastsPreliminary Earthquake Parameters

TWC Product Header Example

WEHW40 PHEB 241805 ← WMO IDENTIFIERTSUHWX ← AWIPS IDENTIFIER

HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-242005- ← UGC LINE/O.CAN.PHEB.TS.A.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ ← VTEC LINES/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.W.0012.100324T1805Z-000000T0000Z/ TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2 MASS NEWS DISSEMINATORNWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI805 AM HST WED MAR 24 2010

TWC Product Narrative Section Example

KEY CHANGES SINCE LAST PRODUCTTHIS UPDATE INCLUDES AN UPWARD REVISED EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDEAND THE FIRST TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS. HEADLINE...A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII... EVALUATIONEVALUATION A MAGNITUDE 9.0 EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED MONDAY AT 700AM HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY THIS EARTHQUAKE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HAZARD IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. RECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONS TUNE TO LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM HAWAII STATE AND COUNTY CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES REGARDING ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

TWC Product Narrative Section Example

MEANING OF THIS ALERT LEVELTHIS TSUNAMI WARNING MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING AND POWERFUL OCEAN CURRENTS ALONG ALL COASTS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII IS EXPECTED. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CAN VARY GREATLY FROM ONESTRETCH OF COAST TO THE NEXT. THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

TWC Product Narrative Section Example

OTHER CENTER’S ACTIONSTHE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTSFOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.THAT CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV. FOLLOW-UP PRODUCT INFORMATIONBULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS PRODUCT AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/PR/PTWC. SEPARATOR FOR TABULAR DATA&&

TWC Product Tabular Section Example

TSUNAMI FORECASTS AND MEASUREMENTSMEASUREMENTS AND/OR FORECASTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR. FORECAST AMPLITUDES GIVEN BELOW ARE ESTIMATES BASED ON NUMERICAL MODELS. THEY ARE ONLY TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON THE SCALE OF THE TSUNAMI IMPACT AND SHOULD BE USED CONSERVATIVELY.

SITE LAT LON ARRIVAL TIME FCST AMP OBS AMP--------------------------------------------------------------------BIG ISLAND HILO 19.7N 155.1W 1118HST MAR 24 6.6F/2.0M 6.8F/2.1M KAWAIHAE 20.0N 155.8W 1124HST MAR 24 3.3F/1.0MMAUI KAHULUI 20.9N 156.5W 1150HST MAR 24 1.2F/0.4MOAHU HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 1152HST MAR 24 1.5F/0.5MKAUAI NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 1201HST MAR 24 1.2F/0.4M

TWC Product Tabular Section Example

TSUNAMI FORECASTS AND MEASUREMENTS (CONT.) LAT – LATITUDE /N-NORTH, S-SOUTH/ LON – LONGITUDE /E-EAST, W-WEST/ ARRIVAL TIME – EXPECTED TIME OF INITIAL TSUNAMI ARRIVAL FCST AMP – FORECAST TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE ABOVE AMBIENT SEA LEVEL. OBS AMP – OBSERVED TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE ABOVE AMBIENT SEA LEVEL. IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT. VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS/M/ AND FEET/F/. SEPARATOR FOR TABULAR DATA&& PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERSPRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0700 HST 24 MAR 2010 COORDINATES - 55.0 NORTH 157.0 WEST DEPTH - 21 MILES/33 KM LOCATION - ALASKA PENINSULA MAGNITUDE - 9.0 END OF PRODUCT SYMBOL$$

Reasons for Format Changes

Common Format for PTWC and WCATWC ProductsIncrease UnderstandabilityReduce ConfusionCommon Tsunami Portal

Concise Narrative SectionKey Information Not BuriedBrief and Easy to Read on HAWAS / NAWASAuto Text-to-Voice

- for NOAA Weather Radio- for Telephone Recording

Common Table of Forecasts and ObservationsForecasts & Observations together for comparison

Development of Samoa Procedures

• Tonga Trench Seismicity -- Continuum between Local Tsunami and Distant Tsunami

• Coast Affected has High Sensitivity to Earthquake Position along the Tonga Trench

• Minimum Magnitude has High Sensitivity to Earthquake Position along the Tonga Trench

• At Present, Only Guidance is from RIFT Experimental Model

Magnitude of earthquakes that generate at least 1 m of run-up at at least one coastal point in the Samoa Islands

Sources (shallow thrust with strikes alongthe trench lines)

**

* S06: 15 km to the SW of the centroidof 2009 M8.0 EQ (15.5S, 172.5W)

** S17: If the strike is perpendicular to the trench, a magnitude 7.5 is sufficient to generate 1 m runup at a coastal point

*

7.87.8 7.6 7.4 6.8

6.77.0

6.9

7.1

7.3

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.3

S01

S20

02 03 0405

06

07

08

09

10

11

20

18

19

17

16

15

14

13

12

Am. Samoa / Samoa Regionalization

Am. Samoa / Samoa Forecast PointsSamoa American Samoa

Savai`i Island Fagalele Bay Tutuila Island Pago Pago

Utuloa Tafuna

Sasina Leone

Fagamalo Amanave

Puapua Fagamalo

Tuasivi Fagasa

Puleia Vatia

Taga Masefau

Salailoa Tula

Falelima Pagai

Upolu Island Faleolo Aumi

Saleimoa Aunuu Island Aunuu

Apia Manua Islands Tau

Falefa Ofu

Cape Oloinono Olesega

Iliili

Safata Bay

Savaia

NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting

February 1, 2011

Thank You