PacifiCorp RTO project teamPacifiCorp RTO project team Presentation to SSG-WI Planning WG Presentation to SSG-WI Planning WG

PDX Business Center, 7/31/02PDX Business Center, 7/31/02

Economic Assessment ofGeneration & Transmission

Expansion Scenarios in WECC

Models used in Power Market analysisModels used in Power Market analysis

• Econometric models - stochastic models that correlate trades and prices to time of year, weather or hydro conditions, fuel price & supply, etc. Used for predicting forward price curves, spark spreads, price spikes, etc. For M&A analysis, project assessment, for assessing credit risk, risk management, trade analytics and support, etc, etc

• Game theory models - KBS-based models that simulate traders’ behavior (always within the rules!). Used for developing/testing trading strategies; for stress testing of market designs, detecting/monitoring unusual trades, etc.

• Power market models - that optimize centrally-dispatched markets; or minimize traders’ production costs in meeting their load service obligations within transmission rights; or price transmission rights/congestion rents, etc.

• System planning tools - for generator interconnection design and impact studies; for network expansion planning, for computing flowpath ratings, etc

A wide range - some old, some new...

Single Area• OK for small control areas• No congestion• Ignores transmission

‘Bubble’ view• Major flowpaths only• Transportation model• Better, but…• Power doesn’t flow like that!

Complete network• Very complex• All network constraints• Only way to track line flows• Still an approximation...

CG&E14.74

KUEN13.59

LG&EE12.66

EKPC13.78

OVEC13.65

WVPA13.41

PSI13.89

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Network models in Power Market analysisNetwork models in Power Market analysis

Trade-off in Market vs Network modelingTrade-off in Market vs Network modeling

SimpleNetwork model

Complex

So

ph

isti

cati

on

of

Mar

ket

mo

del

High

Low

Tradingmodels

Systemplanningmodels

Productionsimulation models

Powermarketmodels

CG&E14.74

KUEN13.59

LG&EE12.66

EKPC13.78

OVEC13.65

WVPA13.41

PSI13.89

MID

OIL

107

Ideal combination

(doesn’t yet exist)

Power Market simulation overviewPower Market simulation overview

Market Modeling

Market Simulation

Scenario Analysis

User specified scenarios

Additional Scenarios

Goal:Goal: To To predict the economiceconomic and physicalphysicalperformance of large power networks

Generation• size, capability• costs (fuel, O&M)• availability• outages

Transmission• network data• constraints• outages• operation rules

Load• distribution• hourly variation• max MWh, MW• annual growth

Capacity factors

Revenues/rents

Flows/Congestion

Clearing Prices

The heart of ABB-MSThe heart of ABB-MS

Why Linearize?• Speed: Enables fast Linear Program (LP) solution• Convergence: LP always a convex problem• Accuracy: Flows on HV circuits modeled well• Acceptability: Generally recognised by Industry

DC Optimal Power FlowTransmission Constrained Economic Dispatch

with linearized power flow model

Transmission Network ConstraintsTransmission Network Constraints• Thermal Line Limits

– Maximum MW on any line– Percentage of MVA rating

• HVDC– Fixed or controllable– Maximum flow: different for each direction– Limits on MW changes per hour

• Phase Shifter– MW Capacity– Angular limits

– Limits on angle changes per hour

• Interface Constraints– Limit on net flows on selected lines

– Models a variety of operating constraints: Reliability, Angular/Voltage stability, Area Interchange Limits

Transmission Network ConstraintsTransmission Network Constraints

Combined Generation & Transmission Nomograms• Interface limits can be a function of generation variables

– Online capacity– Reserve capability, etc

• Example: Southern California import nomogram

Total Flow From EastTo

tal F

low

Fro

m N

ort

h

Limit for online G1Limit for online G2 > G1

Output SummaryOutput Summary

Output Useful for analyzing

Spot Prices Generation Location Trading indicators Zonal Pricing, Congestion

Identification

Generation Dispatch Generation Asset Analysis

Network Flows Transmission Asset Utilization Congestion Identification

Shadow Prices Severity of Congestion Transmission Expansion

Where we’re at with ABB-MSWhere we’re at with ABB-MS

• Hand over to Kurt• various plots of Y2004 flowpath flows, generator nodal price

differences, load factors,etc• on-line demo of selected results

Keys to successful use of COUGERKeys to successful use of COUGER

Easy to change data• Large Base Case data set +

Small, modular, incremental changes• Similar data stored/displayed together• Describe changes from Base Case to User

Easily interpreted results• Summary file: Physical and Financial Performance, with

or without time element• Summary file: highlight important constraints• Graphical representation of results• Case comparison: Summary and Graphical

Keys to successful use of COUGERKeys to successful use of COUGER

Flexibility: User selects which • hours to run

– entire year, one hour, sampled weeks, etc

• constraints to model (accuracy vs. time)– Monitored Lines

– Interface constraints

– Individually, or as Groups via database filters

• results to view – Clearing Price for selected buses

– Flows, Shadow Prices for selected lines and flowpaths

– Total generation, load and average clearing price for selected areas

Total Flexibility via User-controlled proprietary database

Tasks to complete Planning WG’s analysis...Tasks to complete Planning WG’s analysis...

Given the necessary data, the steps would be:

• Set up a complete data set for Y2008: generators (capacity, costs, availability); loads by control area (annual energy, monthly maximum demand and hourly demand profile); and transmission network (a complete WSCC system or other as specified by WG)

• Run economic analyses using ABB-MS for a set of scenarios (fuel prices, new generator type and location, wet/dry hydro production) as specified by the WG

• Report to the Planning WG, on a timetable to be mutually agreed, the prospective resource utilization, system flows, congestion incidence and cost, and other agreed economic indicators

• Repeat the above analysis for Y2018, incorporating a specified set of transmission expansion options, taking account of agreed load growth and generator expansion/ fuel price options

What the Planning WG would need to do...What the Planning WG would need to do...

• Provide a complete transmission network data (e.g. in the form of a WSCC loadflow case in PSS/E format), circuit thermal ratings and interface/flowpath ratings, phase-shifter and HVDC link data.

• Provide load data (monthly energy and max demand, hourly load profile by control area/utility, annual growth rates). Dispatchable load data.

• Provide generator data (type, capacity, heat rates, ramp rates, outage rates, O&M, and fuel costs, hydro production MW/hr in wet and dry conditions).

• Specify the new generators (type, location, commissioning date, economic data and expected performance data) to be added

• Specify the transmission expansions to be studied (terminations, circuit data, ratings and commissioning date), and the combination/sequence of generation/ transmission projects selected to be studied.

• Also, the Planning WG would have to compute the effect on interface/ flowpath ratings of the specified combination of generation/transmission expansion projects that are selected to be studied.

We are content to leave the interpretation of analysis results and the compilation of all reports to the Planning WG