Productivity, Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan

Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) December 13, 2012

Islamabad

Pakistan Rural Household Survey Overview and Highlights

by Hina Nazli, Syed Hamza Haider, Stephanie Hausladen, Asjad Tariq,

Hassan Shafiq, Saqib Shahzad, Amina Mehmood, Asma Shahzad and Edward Whitney

Plan of Presentation

• Rationale • Sample and survey instruments • Introduction of Survey – basic human capabilities

– Economic factors (income, livelihoods, work, expenditures),

– Human factors (education, health, living conditions), – Political factors (empowerment, rights, voice), – Socio-cultural factors (status, dignity), and – Protective factors (insecurity, risk, vulnerability)

• Summary of findings • Way forward

Rationale for the Panel Survey – First of Four Annual Rounds between 2012 and 2015

Provide: • a credible baseline assessment of the rural

economy of Pakistan

• a scientific mechanism for the identification of challenges and opportunities for economic growth and poverty reduction

• and an instrument for monitoring and evaluating outcomes from National Policies especially under the New Growth Framework

Survey Sample • 19 districts from three provinces (Punjab, Sindh, KPK)

– 12 from Punjab – 5 from Sindh – 2 from KPK

• 4 mouzas in each district (76 in total)

– 1 enumeration block with a maximum of 200 households

• 28 households in one enumeration block • 2,124 households visited

– 34 refused • Survey covered 2090 households

– 1310 in Punjab, – 556 in Sindh, and – 224 in KPK

Survey Information

• 76 enumerators and 19 supervisors were selected to implement the survey

• The survey was conducted between March 20th, 2012 and April 25th, 2012

• The data entry program was written in CSPro, with internal consistency checks. The files were then converted to Stata and SPSS

Survey Instruments • Separate instruments to collect information at

household and village levels

• Household-level questionnaires – Male questionnaire – Female questionnaire – Young persons questionnaire (18-35 years)

• Village-level questionnaires

– Community questionnaire – School questionnaire – Price questionnaire

Modules in Household Level Questionnaires

Survey to Track Old Panel Households • Track households in four districts surveyed by the IFPRI panel during

1986-1991 – Attock, Faisalabad, Dir, and Badin

• A two page questionnaire was designed to find out:

– If old household is still in the village – Information on new members of the household – Information on the move-out (migration) members of the households – Reasons of moving-out

• We will be linking to the original panel from 1986-1991 and tracking

the split households as well

• This will make one of the most unique data sets in the developing world

Population Pyramid

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 to 89

90 to 94

95 to 99

Number of Individuals

Age

Male Female

Household Composition by Per Capita Expenditure Quintile

3.96 2.85 2.57 1.87 1.24 2.49

4.04

4.03 3.69

3.34

2.96

3.60

0.36

0.45

0.43

0.44

0.33

0.40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Overall

# of

Peo

ple

in H

ouse

hold

# Elderly# Working Age# Children

8.36

7.33

6.69

5.65

6.49

4.53

Economic Factors (work, income, livelihoods)

Type of Households in Rural Pakistan

37 21 50 34

6

29

8

11

28 11

5

22

13

10

29 14

16

29

8

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Punjab Sindh KPK Overall

Perc

enta

ge o

f Hou

seho

lds

Non Farm Enterprise

Non Agricultural Wage

Agricultural Wage

Tenant

Land Owner

Proportion of Farmers by Size of Farms and Province

70

87 90

20 12

7 7 1 2 3 0 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Punjab Sindh KPK

Perc

enta

ge o

f Hou

seho

lds

Marginal farmers Small farmers Medium farmers Large farmers

Nature of Non-Agricultural Wage Work

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Overall

Construction labor

Factory worker

Government/parastatal

Private enterprise

Maid servant

Teacher/professor

Other

Percentage of Non-Agricultural Waged Workers

Non-Agricultural Occupations in Rural Pakistan by Gender

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Other

Maid servant

Teacher/professor

Private enterprise

Government

Factory worker

Construction labor

Percentage of Non-Agricultural Waged Workers

Female

Male

Connectivity with markets: Distance to Work (non farm employment)

up to 5 km 53%

5-15 km 19%

> 15 km 28%

Nature of Non-Agricultural Enterprise

44.8

31.5

52.4

40.5

11.8

30.3

17.8

43.4

38.1

47.6

41.7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Overall

Trade

Production

Services

Percentage of Non-Agricultural Enterprises

Connectivity with markets: Location where non-agricultural products are sold

In own village 60%

Different village same district

11%

Village in different district

3%

City in same district

22%

City in different district

4%

Labor Force Participation Rates

45

40 41 44

31

21

3

26

38

31

22

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Punjab Sindh KPK Overall

Labo

r for

ce p

artic

ipat

ion

rate

(%)

Male

Female

Overall

Women who do not Participate in Labor Force Spent More Hours Per Week on Household Chores than the Non-Participating Women

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

cooking food for home

washing and cleaning utensils

cleaning own house

helping and caring children and elders

collecting water

collecting firewood and fodder

washing and pressing clothes

stitching and craft work for her own house

preparing dung cakes

shopping

house maintenance

household agricultural activities

Participatingwomen

Nonparticipatingwomen

Hours

Sources of Income in Rural Pakistan

Own Farm 28%

Own Livestock 4%

Agricultural Employment

32%

Non-Agricultural

Employment 24%

Non-Agricultural Enterprise

7%

Remittances 1%

Other 4%

Source of Income by Per Capita Expenditure Quintiles

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Quintile 1

Quintile 2

Quintile 3

Quintile 4

Quintile 5

Own Farm Income

Own Livestock Income

Agricultural Employment

Non-Agricultural Employment

Non-Agricultural Enterprise

Remittances

Other

Percentage of Income

Major Expenditure Heads

Food, beverage and tobacco

63%

Housing, Fuel and lighting

16%

Clothing and laundary

8%

Medical 5%

Education 1%

Others 7%

Share of Food Expenditure on Major Food Items

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Whe

at &

whe

atflo

ur

Rice

& ri

ce fl

our

Milk

& m

ilkpr

oduc

ts

Pulse

s

Mea

ts

Oils

Swee

tene

rs

Frui

ts

Vege

tabl

es

Spic

es

Tea

and

Coffe

e

Misc

ella

neou

s

Perc

enta

ge o

f Foo

d Ex

pend

iture

Quintile 1

Quintile 5

Human Factors (education, health, living conditions)

Distribution of Individuals by the Level of Literacy Across Gender and Province

27

51

7

15

47

27

4

22

37 39

6

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Illiterate Fully literate Literate with difficulty Partially literate

% in

divi

dual

s ol

der t

han

10 y

ears

Male

Females

Both

Completed Years of Education by Gender and Province

42

22

15 14

7

72

13

5 5 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

No schooling Primary Middle Matric Higher than matric

% in

divi

dual

s cu

rren

tly n

ot in

scho

ol

Male

Females

Gross Enrollment Rate at Primary Level

115

52

136

98 92

31

121

74

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Punjab Sindh KPK Overall

Enro

llmen

t rat

e (%

)

Boys Girls

Nearly 40% of Children Attending Primary School Are More Than 9 years old

5-9 years 58%

10-12 years 35%

13-14 years 7%

Gross Enrollment at Middle Level

51

28

75

48 42

7

59

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Punjab Sindh KPK Overall

Enro

llmen

t rat

e (%

)

Boys Girls

Reasons for Leaving School by Gender

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Got available/desired level education

To earn livelihood

School was far away

Uselessness of education

Family pressure

No interest in studying

No resource/poverty

Others

% individuals

Female

Male

Proportion of Villages Reporting the Presence of a Health Facility

11 9

29

55

1

46 43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Ba

sic H

ealth

Uni

t

Rura

l Hea

lth C

ente

r

Clin

ic/D

ispen

sary

Mid

wife

serv

ice

(priv

ate)

Hosp

ital

Lady

hea

lthvi

sitor

/sup

ervi

sor

Hake

em/q

uack

doc

tor

% V

illag

es

Supply of Drinking Water to Household

2

3

2

2

52

77

33

57

32

5

8

24

5

7

22

7

8

8

36

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Overall

Percentage of Households

Own Tubewell

Hand pump

Motor pump

Piped Water insidehouse

Other

Garbage Disposal Facilities

4.07

1.40

2.51

3.28

28.55

26.39

62.65

30.75

3.92

4.12

0.33

3.68

63.10

68.08

34.51

62.04

0 20 40 60 80 100

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Overall Thrown into fixed place(regular garbage disposal)

Thrown into fixed place (noregular garbage disposal)

Burn garbage

Throw where convenient

Sell garbage

Percentage of Households

Daily Power Outages

9

10

10

38

27

72

42

35

39

16

49

18

24

3

9

0 20 40 60 80 100

Overall

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Percentage of Households

0-6 Hours

7-12 Hours

13-18 Hours

18+ Hours

Political Factors (empowerment, rights, voice)

Perceptions of Major Business Constraints

0 20 40 60 80 100

Inadequate access or poor quality ofelectricity

Lack of access to formal credit

Poor quality roads

Corruption

Loan procedure too tedious

Poor access to markets/market information

A dysfunctional legal system

Crime, theft and social disorder

% focus groups

Major Source of Credit Commercial Banks

9%

Govt Bank/ NGOs/ Microfinance Institutions

11%

Aarthi/Beopari/Trader

9% Shopkeeper

11% Relatives and

Friends 51%

Landlord 7%

Others 2%

Availability of Public Services in Selected Villages

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Village electrified

Availability to cylinder gas in village

Availability to sui gas in village

Availability to fixed-line phone service in village

Availability of cellular phone service in village

Availability of sewerage channel for waste water

Availability of garbage collection system in village

Availability of any immunization program in village

Availability of any family planning awareness…

Availability of any health awareness program in village

% villages

Villages Reporting the Presence of a Social Welfare Program

61

14

82

57

27

71

6

29

12 14 12 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

BISP Watan Card NRSP Others

% v

illag

es

Punjab Sindh KPK

Socio-Cultural Factors (status, dignity)

Score of “life right now” on a ten-step ladder

3.3

9.8

17.3 18.2

25.6

14.2

6.5

4.1

.6 .4 .0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

% re

spon

dent

s

Steps of ladder

Level of Trust

71

49 44 43

29 24 23

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Neighbours Judiciary Healthinstitutions

People Govt. official Police Nationalgovt

Parlimentmembers

% re

spon

dent

s

Status and Dignity

40%

52%

49%

51%

42%

58%

39%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Internal Locus of Control

Self-esteem

Religiosity

Trust

Rivalry/ Envy

Poverty Seen as Due toExternal Factors

Openness to Change

Extremely Risk Averse

Percentage of Individuals

Protective Factors (insecurity, risk, vulnerability)

Food Security: Worry About Having Enough to Eat

Did Not Worry About Not Having

Enough to Eat 79%

Rarely 10%

Sometimes 7%

Often 4%

Negative Economic Shocks Experienced by Households

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Other

Cost of court case

Loss of income due to illness or injury

Loss of livestock due to flood

Cut-off or decrease of regular remittances

Loss or destruction of other consumption assets

Major loss of crops due to flood

Other costs of wedding

Lost home/ repair cost due to flood

Medical expenses due to illness or injury

Percentage of Households

Most Common Coping Strategies for Negative Economic Shocks

48

12

9

9

6

5

4

6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

None

Extra hours work/more members at work

Substitution for inferior food

Cut in non-essential expenses

Assistance from people/NGOs

Borrowing

Sale/mortgae of assets

Other

Percentage of households

23% households in 2010 and 18% in 2011 were affected by floods

Flood Coping Strategies Used by Households

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Invested in a better house

Rebuilt house away from watercourse

Helped community build barrages

Some family members migrated

Seasonal migration

Move toward more non-farm activities

Reduction in agricultural machinary investment

Built storage room for crops/seeds

Saved more money in case of natural disasters

Percentage of Households

Summary of Findings • Size of rural non-farm sector is larger than farm sector

• Wages and salaries are important sources of income especially for

the individuals in lower expenditure quintile

• Non farm enterprises are constrained by poor electricity and lack of credit

• A large proportion of adult population is either illiterate or do not have formal education

• Females are far behind males

• Levels of internal locus of control, self-esteem, and trust are low

Way Forward

• Detailed analysis of data is ongoing on many fronts – Markets – Linkages and connectivity – Clusters and urban agglomeration – Employment and income diversification – Migration – Decision making – Aspirations

Thank You so much