pakistan's renewable energy prospects_an update
DESCRIPTION
This presentation traces the recent market developments in Solar and Wind Energy and its impact on the prospects in Pakistan.TRANSCRIPT
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Renewable Energy : Prospects Update
IEEEP Annual Conference March 2013
Akhtar Ali Pro-Plan Associates
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Renewables share in Total Energy
Global = 17-18% O/W Traditional Biomass = 9% Other renewable = 8% 30 Countries have a share of more than 20% EU & US = 12% Europe & Majors = 10% Japan = 6%
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Global ScenarioShare of Renewable Energy
2030 2040 2050Conservative 10 – 15 15 -Moderate 22 35 40High 40% 60 80
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Share of Renewable Electricity
Countries Existing 2030 2050
Europe 21% 36 – 65 97 – 100
US 11% 15 – 71 30 – 90
Japan 10% 20 – 57 85 – 100
China 18% 25 – 43 50 – 92
India/Other Asia 31% 16 – 62 27 – 86
LA 54 – 86 60 – 100
Africa 50 34 – 92
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World Capacities of various Renewable Technologies - Status & Projections GW
2006 2011 2030
Hydro 800 970 1300 – 1740
Wind 74 238 920 – 2700
Solar PV 8 70 490 – 1000
CSP 0.40 1.8 40 – 140
Biomass 45 72 210 – 340
Geo thermal 9.5 11 30 – 50
Ocean 0.3 0.5 10 – 20
938+ 1362
World Total 4000
USA 900
Pakistan 25
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Countries Share in various RENUSA GER Spain Italy China India Japan ROW
Solar PV % 5.7 35.6 6.5 18.3 4.4 7.1
Solar Heating Added Capacity%
0.9 1.9 0.6 0.8 81% 1.5 8.1
Solar Heating Total Capacity%
1 5% 4 64.8 1.5
Wind Power Additions MW
4.8 2 1.1 17 3
WP total capacity MW
42 28 20 45 13
Hydro % Total 49 6
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Comparative features of various Renewable Technologies
Plant Size MW Capacity Factor %
Energy Cost US Cents / kwh
Biomass 25 – 100 70 – 80 7.9 – 17.6
Geo thermal 1 – 100 60 – 90 5.7 – 10.7
Hydro Power Grid base 1 – 18000 30 – 60 5 – 10
Micro Hydro 0.1 – 1000 kw - 5 – 40
Ocean (Tidal) 1 – 250 23 – 29 21 – 28
Solar PV roof top 3.5 kw 10 – 20 22
Solar PV Utility 2.5 – 100 10 – 20 20
Wind Power on shore 1.5 – 3.5 20 – 40 5.21 – 16.5
Biogas CHP 0.5 – 5 MW 80 11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJ
Bio diesel 16.5 – 177
Ethanol 20 – 102/L
Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
Wind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
PVC
OE
ce
nts
/kW
h
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
40
30
20
10
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
en
ts/k
Wh
10
8
6
4
2
0
70
60
50
40
30
2010
0
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002
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Wind Power in Pakistan• 2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC)• Several at Planning Stage• Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW• Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW)• High Capacity Factor-31%• Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh
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Feed in Tariff in EU RegionWind Power
5.11
7.4 7.5 7.78 7.80 8.6110.21 10.21 10.65
11.67 11.9613.00
17.21
0.002.004.006.008.00
10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00
US c
ents
/kw
h
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Wind Power capacity factors in selected countries%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
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Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source in Uruguay
• The average winning price in a recent Uruguayan auction for three 50MW wind power projects was US $63.70 per MWh. The cost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricity in Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh.
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Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper than Gas
• Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average of BRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below the average price for the two natural gas projects (BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102)
• 1 USD=2 BRZ• http://www.greenwellfuture.com/
wind_power_in_brazil
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Comparative Solar Suitability of regions
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Solar PV Cells
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Family of PV cells and efficiencies
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Solar PV applications and Business models thereof
•Residential/small off-grid•Residential grid integrated•Utility distributed•Utility Power Plant
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Off-grid Solar PV application
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Grid Connected Residential PV application
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Schematic layout of Solar PV utility Power Plant
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Solar PV Cost & Tariff in various countries(2013)
Capital Cost USD/W Tariff CapacityPV Panels BoS Total Usc/kWh Factor%
India(regulated) 0.63 0.85 1.481 16.2 19India Auctions 11.8-15.9Europe(Germany) 0.78 0.9 1.68 17.55 10Spain/Italy 15.6 14.8USA(Calif,Texas,Florida) 15-17 18California Auctions 8.92-12 19Pakistan(proposed) 2.392 23.29 17_______________________________________________________________________
Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, PV-magazine, NEPRA)
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Comparative CAPEX for Solar PV utilities(centralized)in various regions(2013)in USD/W
India China Europe/USUS target 2020 (Sunshot)
Total(panels+ BoS)o/w 1.481 1.35 1.681 1
Panels 0.63 0.5 0.78 0.5
BOS o/w 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.5
land Civil Works(% of BoS) 14 0.2
Racking structures-do 13 0.2
Inverter-do 7 0.18
Grid Interface/do 15 0.12
Various incl IDC/do 10 0.2
Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, Solar Server, GTM Market Study)
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Comparative Solar PV Installed costs 2012-13(USD/W)IRTPV-March2013
Europe USA ChinaPV Module 0.69 0.69 0.50BoS 0.47 1.00 0.57Owner’s Cost(say)
0.25 0.25 0.25
Total 1.41 1.94 1.32
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Pakistan Projected Demand of REN(2025-50)
2013 2025 2050
Total Installed Capacity
25000 MW 50,000 MW 150,000 MW
REN Share(10,20,40%)
2500 10000 60,000
Wind 1500 5000 30,000
Solar PV 1500 5000 30,000
Hydro 6000 15000 30,000
Bio-Mass-gas BioCNG
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Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market
•Total Tube well = 1,000,000•o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW• Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW• 40% run less than 800 hrs•Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head •75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab•Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125•Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184•10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17•Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older)•Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps @ 10 kw per = 300 MW/pr say = 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps)
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Item units Amount/ValueSolar PV capacity kW 15Capacity factor hours 1600Annual Electricity produced kWh 24000Replacement cost of Diesel Rs/kWh 25Annual Diesel replacement Rs/yr 600000CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Rs 1800000Investment Payback Period years 3Equity @30% Rs 540000Loan Rs 1260000Repayment period years 10interest rate %p.a 14Annual Debt servicng Rs 241,559 Annual saving for first 10 yrs Rs 298,441 Equity payback Period yrs $1.81 Present Value of 25 yrs saving Rs 5,446,224 Net Present Value @10% Rs 3,646,224 IRR % 33.31Electricity cost in1-10 years Rs/kWh 10.06 Electricity cost in11-25 years 0
Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel EngineCase study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine
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ISSUES
•T & D Losses•High cost of Energy (circular debt)•High Capital Costs•Institutional Issues•Lack of Transparency•Lack of Competitions•Local content /technology
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