palestra ggti jcc

84
“O Novo ABC das TICs nas Organizações” Prof. José Carlos Cavalcanti Depto. de Economia da UFPE/ Depto. de Sistemas de Informação da UFPE http://www.creativante.com.br E-mail: [email protected] Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel & Convention Center Cabo de Sto. Agostinho - PE, 24/10/2015 Business Technology Simplified

Upload: jose-carlos-cavalcanti

Post on 12-Apr-2017

153 views

Category:

Business


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

“O Novo ABC das TICs nas Organizações”

Prof. José Carlos CavalcantiDepto. de Economia da UFPE/

Depto. de Sistemas de Informação da UFPE

http://www.creativante.com.brE-mail: [email protected]

Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel & Convention CenterCabo de Sto. Agostinho - PE, 24/10/2015

Business Technology Simplified

Fonte: Curry, Andrew and Anthony Hodgson (2008). Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy. Journal of Futures Studies, August , 13(1): 1 – 20.

Modelo dos Três HorizontesGr

au d

e Pr

eval

ênci

a

Nos dias atuais duas importantes “visões de

mundo e de futuro” tentam atrair as atenções:

a)A dos Tecnologistas; e,

b) A dos Economistas

“We wanted flying cars, instead we

got 140 characters”

http://www.foundersfund.com/

Peter Andreas Thiel é um empreendedor norte-americano, capitalista de risco e co-fundador do PayPal e da Palantir Technologies, que assumiu o controle de finanças e das necessidades de capital do Facebook, o que ocasionou, entre outros motivos, a saída do brasileiro Eduardo Saverin.

“Why Software Is Eating The World”

Marc AndreessenThe Wall Street Journal

August 20, 2011

Andreessen Horowitzhttp://a16z.com/

Marc Andreessen é empreendedor, investidor (dos mais prestigiados do Vale do Silício) e engenheiro de software. É mais conhecido como o coautor do Mosaic, o primeiro web browser amplamente usado, e depois cofundador da Netscape Communications Corporation.

Five years after the financial collapse, unemployment remains very high in much of the western world. Essentially every major country, with the partial exception of Japan, has tended to leave recovery to private markets and eschewed major fiscal policy initiatives. But increasingly analysts are asking whether this faith in private markets is justified. Larry Summers has argued that we are experiencing "secular stagnation."

Fonte: Edmar Bacha => http://www.valor.com.br/opiniao/3762866/novas-estimativas-do-produto-potencial. 03/11/2014.

Como se posicionar

diante de um debate tão complexo?

Adapted from http://www.eventbrite.com/e/doing-business-in-a-gafa-world-registration-4346091276

Welcome to the

Fareed Zakaria - CNN

“Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can

make the once scarce the now abundant”

Source: Diamandis and Kotler (2012)

Por que esta “compreensão”

sobre a abundância ainda não é dominante?

Porque (por mais paradoxal que seja) nossas crenças, ou nossas percepções, não representam a

realidade!

Perils of PerceptionA FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

49 12

32 4

39 11

32 6

34 9

31 8

46 25

29 9

23 6

24 7

24 8

23 7

19 4

20 6+14

+15

+16

+16

+17

+17

+20

+21

+23

+25

+26

+28

+28

+37ItalySouth KoreaHungaryUSPolandBelgiumSpainFranceAustraliaGreat BritainSwedenCanadaJapanGermany

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work?

Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country

These are the findings from our 14 country study looking at how

accurate – or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts

about their population or social issues.

It shows how wrong we often are:

Perceptions are not reality…

Looking across all questions, we have calculated a

measure of how accurate the population of each country

is.

This gives us our “Index of Ignorance”

Há hoje um novo contexto competitivo

e de inovação onde as TICs estão tendo um

papel crescentemente estratégico

A arquitetura dos ambientes competitivos/inovadores de sucesso vem sendo moldada por dois alicerces centrais:

a) As novas tecnologias da Fronteira Tecnológica Global;

b) Os novos modelos e tecnologias de negócios globais.

Fonte: Michael Porter (2014)

Produtos Inteligentes Conectados

Gartner Hype Cycle

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217

The Closed Innovation Model

Source: Herzog, Philipp (2011). “Open and Closed Innovation: Different Cultures for Different Strategies”. Gabler. 2nd Edition.

The Open Innovation Model

Source: Herzog, Philipp (2011). “Open and Closed Innovation: Different Cultures for Different Strategies”. Gabler. 2nd Edition.

WHAT IS SOCIAL BUSINESS?

We define “social business” broadly to include activitiesthat use social media, social software and technology-based social networks to enable connections between people, information and assets. These activities could be internally focused within the enterprise or externally focused toward customers, suppliers and partners. Examples include:

• Social media: Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter• Social software: Instant messaging, wikis, blogs, enterprise collaboration platforms• Technology-based social networks: employee and community forums

We call the value that companies derive from these activities social business value. Source: MIT Sloan Management Review and Delloite (2014).

Global Business Technologies

(Tecnologias de Negócios Globais)

As Empresas estão preparadas para os complexos desafios

da Terceira Plataforma?

Hipótese 1:

A Empresa está passando por uma radical (re)definição em

função dos efeitos dinâmicos das TICs em três das suas principais

dimensões: Arquitetura, Governança e Crescimento

Hipótese 2:

Um novo “ABC” das TICs está (re)definindo substantivamente

os conceitos tradicionais da Empresa:

(A)nalytics, (B)ig Data e (C)loud Computing

= 40 Zettabytes(1 zettabyte =1 trillion gigabytes)

Dilúvio de Dados/Informações => BIG DATA

Crescimento 4V: em Volume, Velocidade, Variedade e Veracidade.

(billions gigabytes)

Fonte: http://bit.ly/13QKLgj

(16/09/2015)

http://www.delphianalytics.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GrowthOfDataVsDataAnalysts.png

Perception of the significance and nature of events after they have occurred.

Capacity to discern the nature of a situation.

Perception of the significance and nature of events before they have occurred.

Source: Edjlali, Roxane (2011). “Information 20/20: Focus, Connect and lead with Information”. Gartner.

http://drewconway.com/zia/2013/3/26/the-data-science-venn-diagram

Source: Harris, Harlan; Sean Patrick Murphy & Marck Vaisman (2013). Analyzing the Analyzers. O`Reilly.

Figura: Demanda de talento analítico nos EUA pode ser 50 a 60% maior que sua oferta projetada para 2018

Fonte: Mckinsey (2011)

Um Mundo para além do CRISP, e...

... com problemas complexos, ...

... com arquiteturas de dados complexas,

Hortonworks (2014). A Modern Data Architecture with Apache™ Hadoop®: The Journey to Data Lake. White Paper, March.

... demandando competências complexas!

Gartner BI & Analytics Platforms 2015

Gartner Advanced Analytics Platforms 2015

Gartner Enterprise Architecture Consultancies 2015

Hipótese 3:

Este novo “ABC” das TICs só terá sucesso na empresa se nós o

tornarmos um “ABC2”:(A)cessível, (B)arato, e

(C)apaz

Example 1: Car Sales

ModelObs: O coeficiente na variável Google Trends (xt ) implica que um aumento de 1% em volume de busca está associado com aproximadamente 0,5% de aumento em vendas.

Source: Chen, Hsinchun, Chiang, Roger H. L., and Storey, Veda C. (2012). “Business Intelligence and Analytics: From Big Data to Big Impact.” MIS Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 4, 1165-1188, December.

Impacto Cumulativo do IIoT no PIB (em US$ trilhões)

2350 Respondents

AWS IoT is a platform that enables you to connect devices to AWS Services and other devices, secure data and interactions, process and act upon device data, and enable applications to interact with devices even when they are offline.

Bem vindos ao Século 21(ele só está começando!)