Andrew EhrichSatoshi KinoshitaHenning Roedel

Martin Sosa

Palo Alto High Speed Rail Project

Proposal for Business Plan:The Palo Alto High Speed Rail Project

Using VDC models and analyses for the Design and Construction of Palo Alto section of the California High Speed Rail Project

Palo Alto High Speed Rail ProjectFinding the optimal right-of-way for the new High Speed Rail that is going to pass through the City of Palo Alto

Executive Summary: The Palo Alto HSR Project will provide optimum right-of-way use for high-speed rail and Caltrain through Palo Alto. As the HSR will go through the same land Caltrain does, there are two options: an above grade option, placing the HSR on top of the Caltrain; or getting both trains underground and thus reuniting Palo Alto. The underground option would be financed through the sale of air rights, while the Above Grade one would be paid by Caltrans. Finally, the development would fit aesthetically and culturally with rest of Palo Alto, and wouldprovide value to area. We will take a VDC approach to analyze and optimize the project.

VDC approach to Solving ProblemThe use of various Analysis Tools

The POP Model Relating and Integrating the Product, Organization, and Processes involved in this Project

SketchupVisualization and Impact on Community

Revit Visualization and Quantity Take Off

Navisworks4D to visualize construction processes

SimvisionSimulate and quantify hidden work

ExcelQuantity Take Off of dirt to be removed

VDC: provides better visualization of a project, outputs valuable information that helps compare alternatives, ensures consistency between the trades involved in the project, and analysesprocesses such as hidden work.

Baseline Description of PAHSRThe use of VDC will provide visualizations of the 3 options for the PAHSR. VDC will help determine, through the simulation of the organization, what the Peak Risk for each option is, as well as the amount of hidden work based on the coordination between parties required. Finally, VDC will improve the accuracy of different Quantity Take Offs, resulting in a more accurate cost estimate to compare the 3 options.

Baseline Description of PAHSRThe Baseline option is defined as the Above Ground Option

Main Features of Baseline Option:

Proposal – Business at Large Scale

Once VDC is applied to the PAHSR Project, the models can be adjusted to work for other similar projects. Therefore, VDC could allow the project to expand so that it covers the whole High Speed Rail System.

Possibility of creating a company to handle this?

Background on PAHSR

Use VDC during early design phase to analyze feasibility of the 3 options. Once an option has been decided upon, use VDC to optimize construction processes and create realistic schedules for construction.

Alternative solution: decide which option is better based on estimated first cost, providing fast design options. Yet it could be the less valuable option to the community as it only looks at cost and not at the Big Picture.

Background on PAHSR

Site Plan Current Caltrain path through the City of Palo Alto

Background on PAHSRRelevant VDC Tools

Current State-of-the-Art modeling tools include 3D and 4D modeling with the support of Building Information Modeling, as well as Cost Estimation and Process Optimization Tools

Constraints on solutions provided by VDC: Require lots of interpretation; models prove to be better for comparison than for accuracy.

Organizational and Social Issues: there is little culture for VDC so some parties in the organization might resist its use.

VDC will allow for predictions regarding Budgets, Schedules, Staff involved in every stage, and Resources used in every stage.

Functional Objectives of PAHSRFunctions

Increase connectivity between two towns dividedby Caltrain railway by constructing High Speed Railand the existing Caltrain railway in underground.

Earn revenues for tunnel construction by selling

the air rights for development along Alma Street.

Maintain the effect of shadows of the new

buildings as specified.

Objectives

Connectivity > 25 streets

Total Tunnel Cost <= $ 900 M

Air Rights Revenue >= $ 732 M

Shadows (Max Ground Projection) <= 150 sq. ft

Schedule conformance > 80%

Actors backlog = 3 days

Peak quality risk < 0.25

Modeling Objectives for PAHSRThe Design Responses for Intended Function

Sponsor’s Objectives

Construct right-of-way for high-speed rail and Caltrain through Palo Alto

Design appropriate organization for the project

Analyze finance of the project through selling of air rights vs. tunneling cost

Development should fit aesthetically and culturally with rest of Palo Alto

Investigate visual & shading effect of above ground option

Team Objective

Propose valuable option among the three options by using VDC tools.

Modeling Objectives for PAHSRThe Design Responses for Intended Function

Product Forms (e.g., streets, tunnel, station, park) are visually presented and evaluated by using 3D modeling tools (i.e., Revit, Sketchup).

Organization Forms & Process Forms are examined in SimVision.

Outputs of Analysis

Revenue varies according to changing real estate prices and interest rates. Analysis believable given those assumptions.

Shadow analysis believable to the point of Google Sketchup accuracy. Connectivity very believable as seen in 3D Model.

Organization analysis allows stakeholders to recognize Actors Backlog with timeline. Also it shows Peak Quality Risk in each activity.

Tunnel Cost varies according to many variables that are not easily quantifiable so they are provided in ranges and are considered rough.

Assessment of OutputsRealistic Predictions: The Choice of Modeling Tools

Mid-density underground option is the most appropriate among the three options since it covers all project objectives except actor backlog.

Above ground option achieves schedule conformance requirement only.

Assessment of OutputsRealistic Predictions: The Choice of Modeling and Analysis Elements that address Objectives

Mid-density underground• 3D Model shows location of streets to increase

connectivity + a visualization of how the new buildings fit in with the City.

• Tunneling Costs and Scheduling shows duration of Project and expected cost indicates how much revenue is needed to finance project.

• Air rights Revenue model shows the feasibility of achieving sufficient revenue to finance the project.

• Simvision shows the stakeholders of the project, and shows how risky the project is regarding the process of construction and scheduling, which gives a better estimate of when the HSR could start its services through the City.

Above ground option

• Fulfills requirement of giving a right of way to the HSR

• Does not prove to be of increased value for the City.

High-density underground

• Shows the same as the Mid-density Underground

• The 3D model also shows how tall buildings look next to the City.

• Does not respect all Code for Building Restrictions, but was made to show how much revenue could be acquired from going to a higher density option

Aims and Deliverables for PAHSRDeliverables: POP Model Integrates of the Product,

Organization, and Processes related to a project to ensure consistency and state project goals.

FFB Defines Function, Form and behavior for the elements in the POP

PBS Defines the elements of the Product based on the required functionality

OBS Defines parties involved in the org., based on the scope of the project

WBS Defines hierarchically the work done by the OBS that is needed to create the elements in the PBS

Aims and Deliverables for PAHSR

Aims and Deliverables for PAHSRExclusions and non-aims:

4D modeling will serve for visualization purposes, but it will not be a primary tool.

The VDC tools will not be used to model absolutely all aspects of the buildings involved until late design phases; the purpose is mostly to view the Big Picture rather than the details.

Next Step: Create an organization in which all parties are willing to use and apply the VDC tools and models being created

Above Ground Rail CorridorProduct Model

•Train Station

•High Speed Train

•Rail Supports

•Ground Level Streets

•Security Fence

•Existing Caltrain Tracks

Annotated Product POP ModelAbove Ground Option

Baseline option keeps existing tracks, does not include new development, and does not increase number of connecting streets

Assignment of Critical MilestonesAbove Ground Option

Differences from Below Ground Option:

•No development – train and tracks only

•Greater coordination risk with Caltrain, as construction will occur directly over existing tracks

•Since no new zoning and building construction must be approved, permitting process through City Council might be less time-consuming.

Above Ground Rail CorridorDesign and Construction Tasks

Design: Railway System

Construct: Railway

Design: Station

Construct: Station

Test: First Train Run

SimVision Results

Above Ground

Tunnel - Mid

Tunnel - High

Business meaningCompletion Date is key item for starting Caltrain operation and opening buildings.Risk and Backlog are to be maintained lower not to exacerbate product qualities (i.e., tunnel, buildings).

Prediction Examples(Tunnel – Mid option)

0.43 (Max Risk)

15 days (Max Backlog)

The effect of Hidden works are explicitly shown by comparing predicted schedules of no-error probability case (baseline) vs. non-0-error probability case (case-1).

15 months delay

Hidden Work Effect

Hidden works are described as unexpected additional works such as rework, decision wait and coordination.

Schedule comparisonBaseline (0-error prob.)

vs.Case-1 (non-0-error prob.)

Creative Alternative Design OptionBelow Ground Rail Corridor

Annotated Product POP ModelMedium Density Below Ground Option

Annotated POP Process TasksMedium Density Below Ground Option

Design and construction tasks are explicitly connected to product elements in the POP model to ensure consistency

Tasks are associated with empowered actors who have responsibility for product elements

Breakdown StructureRelationships

Organization – Product•Designers coordinate with different actors to engineer and develop Product Model

Organization – Process•Stakeholders coordinate with Designers for design submission and approval•Contractors manage construction activities to build project•Stakeholders begin occupancy once construction is finished

Using VDC to mitigate possible conflicts

Coordination of the design and construction of the Train Station, Security Fence, and Corridor Columns is required

Design Coordination Between VDC Engineers at Early Stages to Mitigate Problems Later on

Above Ground 3D Model: Coordination between Railway construction and Construction of New Caltrain Station

Potential ConflictShown first in 4D Model, then checked on 3D Model

Spatial Conflicts between the Security Fence and Corridor Columns are detected early on using the 4D model

A rework link has been added to the Organization –Tasks model for Build Corridor Phases 1&2 and Site Preparation (Security Fence)

Using VDC to mitigate possible conflicts

New Buildings

Palo Alto current Downtown Area

Mid-density Und. 4D Model: Rework possibly needed for design of buildings near Downtown Palo Alto area. Similarity to current Palo Alto architecture and culture is priority, so traffic of people through downtown might influence design.

4D Modeling Indicating Issues in for different Options

Above Ground Option Construction of new Caltrain Station will happen at the same time as the construction of the elevated corridor in that area. Great coordination needed to avoid delays

Mid-density Und. Option Buildings that are not adjacent might be in construction at the same time. Adjacency is avoided to prevent excessive disruption of traffic in areas.

Total Economic Impact Model

Assuming forty-year loan to buyers of air rights, and calculated by dividing NPV by development costs

Increase in property value to developers due to decreased risk and increased ability to visualize product through VDC models

Cost figure comes from tunneling cost calculations

Assumed savings in development given faster conflict resolution, better coordination, etc…

Fast payback compared to two-year amortization of VDC investment

MACDADI

MACDADI shows that below ground options outperform above ground options, and given the cost feasibility for medium density development, this below ground option

outperforms the high density option.

Believability of AnalysesCost is believable given assumptions on productivity and cost from tunneling experts at Hatch Mott. Quantity takeoffs from Revit are quite reliable.

Connectivity taken from 3D models is extremely reliable and easy to understand.

Variable interest rates, costs, and property values, along with simplifying assumptions, make revenue analysis relevant for feasibility studies but not exact accuracy.

Model does not include all physical elements, but shadow analysis given included elements is accurate.

Communication with sponsors in order to better define realistic project timelines will make for more believable organizational analysis.

Business RecommendationMid-density option is recommended, because of the following predictions

Connectivity is predicted appropriately high

Enough revenues are available to apply

TBM by selling air rights

Shadow effects are acceptable

High schedule conformance, and

Reasonable risks, backlogs

Continued use of VDC allows stakeholders to

Evaluate projects by multidisciplinary

integrated analyses

Decrease project risks with visualized data

Return VDC investment within a year

VDC Modeling Guidelines

Automation of routine D&C activities is difficult at this point in time because of software interoperability issues