Pan-Arctic glacier-water-biogeochemical system responses and social-eco-logical resilience effects in a warming climate

Arctic-HYDRAThe Arctic-HYDRA project is a network for the observation and studies of the Arctic Hydrological Cycle.

About the project

The last three decades of observed rapid and significant changes to the Arctic envi-ronment indicate that the region is pres-ently in transition to a state not previously observed in recent history.

This project aims to:

1. Identify, quantify and map changes, and critical data and knowledge gaps for assessing these changes, of the spatial-temporal distributions of coupled glaciological, hydrological and biogeochemical responses to a warming climate and associated intensification of the fresh water cycle due to increases in both glacier volume loss and hydrologi-cal runoff from the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin (PADB).

2. Identify main ecosystem services as-sociated with glacial mass balance and hydrological-biogeochemical cycling in the PADB and understand how they are inter-connected to produce syner-gies and trade-offs within and between various social systems and economic sectors.

3. Identify hot spots of social-ecological system vulnerability, where climate-induced glaciological-hydrological-bio-geochemical changes in the PADB may lead to particularly large and/or rapid effects on whole clusters of inter-depen-dent social-ecological system functions.

The inter-disciplinary consortium of this project consists of several Swedish and international partners, who will jointly investigate interactions and feedbacks between linked glaciological, hydrological, biogeochemical and social-ecological sys-tems. The Arctic-HYDRA network is part of the international collaboration in this project. The project is also linked to Core Theme 5, Biogeochemical and Hydrologi-cal Cycles (www.bbcc.su.se/biogeochem-ical-and-hydrological-cycles/introduction.html), of the Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research (BBCC) at Stockholm University (www.bbcc.su.se); BBCC is supported by a long-term Linnaeus grant from the Swed-ish Research Council (VR) and The Swedish Research Council Formas.

Early results

In order to detect, understand and adapt to the rapid changes in the Arctic, a well-distributed hydrological monitoring network with openly accessible data of high quality is vital. Unfortunately, several studies have shown a marked decline in hydrological monitoring networks since the period of their maximum extent in the 1970s (Lammers et al., 2001; Shiklomanov et al., 2002; Hinzman et al.; 2005, Walsh et al.; 2005). However, little information is available on where the decline has been most critical, and how it relates to the distribution of socio-economic and climatic pressures on water resources in the pan-Arctic drainage basin.

Early work within the project has included an analysis of which Arctic drainage basins that are left most vulnerable by the recent decline in monitoring, due to a combina-tion of declining networks and high socio-economic and climate pressures.

In order to analyze the spatial distribu-tion of decline in accessible hydrological monitoring data, we introduce a measure to represent this decline in a coherent way across drainage basins with varying sizes and station densities. For this purpose, we calculate first the development of Arctic Runoff Database (ARDB; GRDC, 2006) stations with accessible discharge data over time, from 1950 to present. This development analysis shows that the period 1975-79 represents the period of peak accessible monitoring data density. As a general measure of relative network density decline, we therefore use the ratio between the number of ARDB stations with accessible discharge data for the rela-tively recent period of 1995-99 with the corresponding number of stations for the peak-monitoring period of 1975-79. Since we cannot distinguish between stations that have actually been closed and sta-tions that have ceased to provide access to data, the term network density in this context represents the density of stations with accessible data.

Using this measure, we develop a vulner-ability map for basins with above-average decline in network density, based on calculated basin-by-basin population density (CIESIN, 2005), economic produc-tion intensity (Nordhaus et al., 2006) and projected future temperature change

(IPCC, 2007). Basins with above-average values for these parameters, relative to the average value for the entire pan-Arctic drainage basin, were identified, and an overlay map was created, indicating how many of the parameter values that are above average for each basin.

The figure to the left shows a vulnerability map for basins with above-average decline in monitoring networks, based on an over-lay of basins with above-average values for population density, economic production intensity and projected future temperature increase. A value of 1 for a given basin means that of the four parameters, only the network decline was above average. Values 2-4 indicate that one to three of the other parameters were also above the average.

In total, these basins with above-average decline and pressure vulnerability com-prise 50% of the whole pan-Arctic drain-age basin, and 64% of the area of all the monitored basins within it. Furthermore, 81% of the population in the whole pan-Arctic drainage basin resides in basins with above-average decline in network density, and out of this share, 95% lives in those basins where also the population density is above average. The pattern for economic production is similar, with basins that have above-average decline in networks com-prising 73% of the total economic produc-tion, 91% of which is in production-intense areas.

If the decline of monitoring density had been evenly distributed across monitored regions, we should expect a relative measure of network decline to exhibit small variation between basins. However, our analysis shows that network decline is concentrated to certain areas of the pan-Arctic. Furthermore, for the basins where the hydrological monitoring decline has been higher than average, population density and economic production intensity are also frequently above average. These basins also contain the largest fraction of the total population and economic produc-tion in the pan-Arctic.

Vulnerability map for pan-Arctic drainage basins with above-average decline in monitor-ing density. A value of 1 indicates that network decine is above average for the basin, while higher values indicate how many of the parameters population density, economic production intensity and predicted future temperature change that are also above aver-age.

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PADB

ReferencesCIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network), Columbia University, and CIAT (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical), 2005. Gridded Population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3). Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Ap-plications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University. (www.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw)

GRDC, 2006. GRDC Station Catalogue, status November 2006. Global Runoff Data Centre, Koblenz, Germany.

Hinzman, L. D., Bettez, N. D., Bolton, W. R., Chapin, F. S., Dyurgerov, M. B., Fastie, C. L., Griffith, B., Hollister, R. D., Hope, A., Huntington, H. P., Jensen, A. M., Jia, G. J., Jorgenson, T., Kane, D. L., Klein, D. R., Kofinas, G., Lynch, A. H., Lloyd, A. H.,

McGuire, A. D., Nelson, F. E., Oechel, W. C., Osterkamp, T. E., Racine, C. H., Romanovsky, V. E., Stone, R. S., Stow, D. A., Sturm, M., Tweedie, C. E., Vourlitis, G. L., Walker, M. D., Walker, D. A., Webber, P. J., Welker, J. M., Winker, K. S. and Yoshikawa, K., 2005. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions. Climatic Change 72, 251–298, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5352-2.

IPCC, 2007. SRES GCM change fields. Available at http://www.ipcc-data.org/cgi-bin/ddcvis/gcmcf (accessed on 2007-05-03).Lammers, R. B., Shiklomanov, A. I., Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete, B. M., and Peterson, B. J., 2001. Assessment of contemporary Arctic river runoff based on observational discharge records. Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 3321–3334.

Nordhaus, W., Azam, Q., Corderi, D., Hood, K., Victor, N. M., Mohammed, M., Miltner, A., and Weiss, J., 2006. The G-Econ Database on Gridded Output: Methods and Data. (http://gecon.yale.edu/gecon_data_%20051206.pdf)

Shiklomanov, A. I., Lammers, R. B., and Vörösmarty, C. J., 2002. Widespread decline in hydrological monitoring threatens pan-Arctic research. AGU EOS Transactions 83, 13, 16, 17.

Walsh, J., Anisimov, O., Hagen, J., Jakobsson, T., Oerlemans, J., Prowse, T., Romanovsky, V., Savelieva, N., Serreze, M., Shik-lomanov, A., Shiklomanov, I., and Solomon, S., 2005. Crysophere and hydrology. In Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, chapter 6, pages 183–242. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Arctic-HYDRAhttp://arcticportal.org/arctichydra

Participants Georgia Destouni (Pl),Professor of Hydrology,Stockholm UniversityArvid Bring, PhD student, Stockholm UniversityMark Dyurgerov, Guest Researcher,Stockholm University and Senior Scientist, INSTAAR, University of ColoradoLine Gordon, Assistant Professor, Stockholm UniversitySteve Lyon, BBCC Postdoc,Garry Peterson, Assistant Professor, Stockholm University and McGill University, Canada

Additional information Georgia Destouni (Pl)georgia.destouni@ natgeo.su.se

Research project at the Depart-ment of Physical Geography & Quaternary GeologyStockholm Universitywww.ink.su.se

Funded by the Swedish Research Council Formas for the period 2008-2010

Early publicationsBring, A.Destouni, G.2008Spatial patterns of decline in Pan-Arctic drainage basin monitoring: a vulnera bility map. Proceedings of the XXV Nordic Hydrological Conference, ReykjavikSveinsson, Óli Grétar BlöndalGardarsson, Sigurdur MagnúsGunnlaugsdóttir, Sigurlaug (ed.)60-66.

Bring A.Destouni G.Hannerz F. 2007Pan-Arctic drainage basin monitoring: current status and potential significance for assessment of climate change effects and feedbacks. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate & Water, Tuire, Kauhanen (ed.), 88-93; also published in Arctic Forum Abstract Volume, 1st IPY workshop on Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks, 2007.

Bring A.Destouni G.Hannerz F.2007Current status of Pan-Arctic hydrologic and hydrochemical observing networks. Proceedings from the Arctic Coastal Zones at Risk Workshop in Tromsö, Norway, 1-3 October 2007, Flöser, Götz; Kremer, Hartwig; Rachold, Volker (ed.)

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