pandemic issues for cattle: lessons learned
TRANSCRIPT
Pandemic Issues for Cattle: Lessons Learned
Dan Loy
Iowa State University
Pandemic disruptions in the beef industry
• Supply chain disruptions
- Ethanol coproducts
• Market disruptions
- Packing plant closures
- Auction market disruptions
• Restaurants closed, grocery shelves emptied
• Breakdown of beef value chain
Input supply disruptions
Weekly Ethanol Production, US
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan 0
3,
2020
Jan 1
0,
2020
Jan 1
7,
2020
Jan 2
4,
2020
Jan
31,
20
20
Feb
07, 2
020
Feb
14, 2
020
Feb
21, 2
020
Feb
28, 2
020
Mar
06
, 2
020
Mar
13, 2
020
Mar
20, 2
020
Mar
27, 2
020
Ap
r 0
3, 2
020
Ap
r 1
0, 2
020
Ap
r 1
7, 2
020
Ap
r 2
4, 2
020
May 0
1, 2
020
May 0
8, 2
020
May 1
5, 2
020
May 2
2, 2
020
May 2
9, 2
020
Jun 0
5,
2020
Jun 1
2,
2020
Jun 1
9,
2020
Jun 2
6,
2020
Jul 03, 2020
Jul 10, 2020
Jul 17, 2020
Jul 24, 2020
Jul 31, 2020
Au
g 0
7,
20
20
Au
g 1
4, 2020
Au
g 2
1, 2020
Au
g 2
8, 2020
Se
p 0
4, 2020
Se
p 1
1, 2020
Se
p 1
8, 2020
Source: US Department of Energy
Source: Renewable Fuels Assn
93
97
100
104
91
94
97
88
9495
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
DDGS MDGS WDGS CCDS
TD
N, %
Normal Low Fat De-oiled
Corn
TDN of corn co-products
Lundy and Loy, 2014.
Western Iowa MDG price,percentage of corn (DM basis)
USDA-AMS Weekly Market News
Economics Distillers in Beef Diets
• For most of the ethanol era, corn co-products have been cheaper than corn
- Energy source
- Incentive to overfeed protein
• At higher prices DG becomes a protein source
Pricing protein sources
Feed Percent
protein
Price Cost/DM Cost/CP
DDG 30 $195/T $.11 $.36
MDG 30 $100/T $.10 $.33
SBM 48 $300/T $.17 $.35
Whole
Soybeans42 $8.30/bu $.16 $.37
Corn 8.5 $2.80/bu $.05 $.59
Urea 282 $600/T $.31 $.11
Alfalfa 18 $225 $.11 $.63
Ruminants
• Bacterial in the rumen can make protein from non-protein nitrogen
• Require amino acids only for needs microbes can’t manufacture
• Two requirements
- Animal
- Bacteria
Cattle are adaptable
• Can quickly adjust to new feeds
• Nutritionists and producers needed to re-learn some basic concepts such as non-protein nitrogen and protein phase feeding of protein.
Marketing disruptions
• April 29 Webinar on holding cattle
• Cattle marketings were 27 % below one year ago week prior
• 10% of plants were off line
• President Trump had announced an executive order to keep plants open
C-S-08
09/18/20
410
435
460
485
510
535
560
585
610
635
660
685
710
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
CATTLE SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-18
09/18/20
835
845
855
865
875
885
895
905
915
925
JAN APR JUL OCT
Pounds
STEER DRESSED WEIGHTFederally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-18B
09/18/20
770
780
790
800
810
820
830
840
850
JAN APR JUL OCT
Pounds
HEIFER DRESSED WEIGHTFederally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-P-62
09/21/20
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs., Carcass, Negotiated, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
09/21/20
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Cattle weights were already increasing
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
Incremental Feed Conversion
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
Incre
me
nta
l F
ee
d C
on
ve
rsio
n
Cattle Weight
Source: Modeling of recent closeouts by Dr. Garland Dahlke
The net energy system works
• Nutritionists can predict ADG and weight based on feed intake
• Nutritionists can project performance and program growth rate
Approximate Gains for Finishing Cattle Based on Net Energy Intake (25 lb. DMI)
Ration Maint. Backgrnd Cons.
Finishing
Normal
Finishing
ADG 0 2-2.5 2.5-3 3-3.5
NEg 30 50-55 55-58 63-65
Gain in 60
days
0 135 165 200
http://www.iowabeefcenter.org/information/SlowFeedlotGrowth-COVID-ISU-
UWExt0420.pdf
Controlling intake
• Across the typical range of finishing rations cattle may eat more and gain the same
• Limited intake programs should be considered if bunk space and bunk management allows
• Marbling will continue to be deposited when cattle continue to maintain a minimal gain of 2-2.5 lb. per day
• Putting cattle on a maintenance or weight loss program is not advised but can be done
• Health concerns exist for heavy cattle
Approximate cost of gains for various programs
• Normal Finishing -- $77/CWT
• Conservative Finishing--$91/CWT
• Backgrounding--$111/CWT
• Maintenance-- ∞
Concerns over health and welfare of heavy cattle in the summer
Acute interstitial pneumonia
4X 1X
Photo: Dr. Dan Thomson
AIP mortality epi curveFirst 300 DOF
0.0000%
0.0002%
0.0004%
0.0006%
0.0008%
0.0010%
0.0012%
0.0014%
0.0016%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
0
11
0
12
0
13
0
14
0
15
0
16
0
17
0
18
0
19
0
20
0
21
0
22
0
23
0
24
0
25
0
26
0
27
0
28
0
29
0
30
0
AIP mortality occurring January 1, 2015 – November 17, 2018
AIP mortality by monthAs % of population
0.000%
0.005%
0.010%
0.015%
0.020%
0.025%
0.030%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AIP mortality occurring January 1, 2015 – November 17, 2018
Carcass Bruising
Photo: Dr. Dan Thomson
TransportationLoading Cattle (Beenken, ISU, 2018)
Fatigued cattle syndrome
• Tachypnea
– Abdominal component
• Lameness
• Muscle tremors
• Reluctance to move
• Hoof wall slough
Source: Dr. Dan Thomson
Fatigued cattle syndrome
• Need for education, diagnostics, mitigation
- Animal handling
- Heat stress
- Time of day at shipping
- Distance from pen to load out
- Out weight/finish of cattle
- Pen weights/crushing
- Trucking
- Time standing at plant
- Nutrition day before shipping
Spring Closeouts (March-June)ISU Feedlot Monitor
2020 2019 2018
In wt 839 870 812
Out wt 1549 1441 1397
Death loss 1.1 1.3 1.1
Carcass wt 987 888 867
DOF 220 191 179
ADG 3.2 2.9 3.2
F/G 8 8.7 7.3
DMI 25.5 24.7 23.3
AFI 41 36.1 36.3
NEg 57.7 59.9 60.7
Feed cog $0.63 $0.67 $0.58
Total cog $0.90 $0.88 $0.80
Feed/t $136.66 $128.16 $120.09
Breakeven $116.38 $126.42 $116.36
Kansas Focus on Feedlots
June 2020 June 2019
In wt 719 731
Out wt 1425 1367
ADG 3.45 3.33
F/G 6.1 6.29
Death Loss 2.15 2.34
COG $81.70 84.45
Summarized each month by Justin Waggoner, KSU
M-P-11
09/11/20
550
600
650
700
750
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Cents Per Pound
RETAIL BEEF PRICEAll Fresh, Monthly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-
ERS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Lusk et al 2020
Consumer behavior changed
Photo: Beth Doran
Steakhouses close
M-S-26
09/18/20
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
JAN APR JUL OCT
Percent
BEEF GRADED CHOICEAs a Percent of Beef Graded
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20
$/Cwt
CUTOUT VALUEMonthly
Prime Branded Choice Select Ungraded
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Source: CAB Insider, Sept. 30, 2020
I-N-35
09/09/20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mil. Pounds
US BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
Japan Canada Mexico South Korea
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Source: CAB Insider, Sept. 30, 2020
How issues were minimized
• Packers prioritized heaviest cattle
• More sorting of pens
• Front line workers were heroic in getting plants back to near capacity
• Avoided devastating heat in much of the feeding areas
Lessons Learned
• Cattle are adaptable. Their role as “upcyclers” allow much flexibility in how they are fed.
• Cattle are getting bigger and heavier regardless of the pandemic
• While cattle are flexible and adaptable the value chain is vulnerable
• Consumers learned new ways to eat beef
• Renewed interest in small local processing and direct to consumer marketing.
• Risk management and the value chain.
Questions?
Dan Loy
www.iowabeefcenter.org
515-294-1058