Panel: Less Panel: Less WhyWhy and More and More HowHow for MENA for MENA

Association for Middle Eastern Public Policy Association for Middle Eastern Public Policy and Administration (AMEPPA) and Administration (AMEPPA)

Third Conference, Third Conference,

Beirut, Beirut,

December 2014December 2014

Action is the only way forward

““The pessimist complains about the wind;The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the optimist expects it to change;

the realist adjusts the sailsthe realist adjusts the sails.”.”

William A Ward (1921-1994)William A Ward (1921-1994)

Actions that produce positive results

Focus on Focus on long term evolutionary long term evolutionary change.change.

Efforts that involve the Efforts that involve the wholewhole communitycommunity: :

Including Including young men AND womenyoung men AND women. .

And those that guarantee failure

Living in the past.Living in the past.

Ignoring present realitiesIgnoring present realities

Promises of instant success.Promises of instant success.

Violence and sectarian divisions.Violence and sectarian divisions.

Reliance on others. Reliance on others.

AMEPPA’s agenda: search for recovery

Focus on the Focus on the WHYWHY is not enough. is not enough.

The last 12 slides of this presentation give examples of The last 12 slides of this presentation give examples of WHYsWHYs. .

Attention must move to Attention must move to HOW HOW to improve conditions.to improve conditions.

This session is designed to discuss AMEPPA’s future This session is designed to discuss AMEPPA’s future effort to move from WHY to HOW.effort to move from WHY to HOW.

We are after focus group discussion

The different Panels presented a wealth of information The different Panels presented a wealth of information both on the why and on the how.both on the why and on the how.

We seek comments on how to bring this effort together We seek comments on how to bring this effort together into a unified programme for action.into a unified programme for action.

Progress will be reported to the 2015 conference in Cairo.Progress will be reported to the 2015 conference in Cairo.

Your comments and suggestions are welcome. Your comments and suggestions are welcome.

Nations’ intractable (complex) problems

Nations do not respond well to command-and-control.

They need different management methods.

No ‘magic bullet’ solutions for instant success.

Religious and military leaders find it difficult to tolerate the above conditions.

Management of intractable situations

Top nations handle intractability well ‘‘Citizens as PartnersCitizens as Partners’’, , Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD), 2001, Development (OECD), 2001, http://www.oecd.org/gov/public-innovation/2536857.pdf

‘‘Wicked ProblemsWicked Problems’’, , Australian Government Public Service Australian Government Public Service Commission, 2007. Commission, 2007. http://www.apsc.gov.au/publications-and-media/archive/publications-archive/tackling-wicked-problems

‘‘Working in SystemsWorking in Systems’’, , UK Department of Health, Modernisation UK Department of Health, Modernisation Agency, 2005. Agency, 2005.

‘‘A Voice for AllA Voice for All’’, , CanadianCanadian Institute of Governance, 1990, Institute of Governance, 1990, www.iog.ca. .

MENA’s principal deficits

Parts of MENA suffer from all or some of the following deficits:

Lack of human development “People are the real wealth of a nation.” UNDP

Lack of economic development: Modest investment coupled with corruption; a crippling mix.

Lack of institutional development: Essential institutions are in a primitive stage of development.

MENA’s main intractable issues

The following issues require remedial action but HOW?

High proportion of young people and high youth unemployment. Under-represented and under-valued women. Inadequate governance. Underperforming systems of education and health. Chronic brain drain. Rampant corruption.

Other issues emerging from discussion? Several Arab Human Development Reports provide an excellent

source for these and other problems.

Issue: youth bulge and unemployment

Y Generation: (born between late 1970s and 1990s.)

About one third of 400 million Arabs.

They are literate, informed, networked, eager for change,…

AND UNEMPLOYED: 23% overall and 31% for women.

(See ‘New Arabs’: Juan Cole, published 2014)

What can be done?

Issue: limited women’s rights

Gender inequality is directly linked to human development.

Women’s position is deteriorating rather than improving.

Half the social and economic capital of a nation.

How could we address this critical issue?

Issue: inadequate governance

Weak or disintegrating states with little inter-state cooperation.

Few rules that apply equally to all citizens.

Inadequate forces of law and order.

Governance:

“…objectives are realized, resources are well managed and decision makers are transparent and accountable.”

(Institute on Governance, Canada.}

Governance in national life

In intractable situations good governance is critical.

Too many rigid rules (as in a dictatorship) lead to unproductive order.

Too few rules (as in civil war) lead to total chaos.

Neither is desirable. Both evident in Middle East.

How could we improve governance?

Issue: institutional development

Disrupted and disorganised systems of education and health.

The state of a nation depends totally on how well its citizens can take part in all its affairs.

Unhealthy and under educated citizens cannot do so properly.

What can be done to address education and health?

Issue: brain drain

A chronic brain drain has reduced the region’s social capital.

Wars, insecurity, and authoritarian regimes have been the cause.

Made worse by persecution of ethnic and religious minorities and a widespread practice of nepotism in appointments.

How could we use the diaspora of Middle Eastern talent?

Issue: rampant corruption

The UN Convention Against Corruption (CAC, 2005) has been ratified by most states.

Prevent and criminalise corruption, promote inter-state cooperation and to recover stolen assets.

No evidence of serious attempt by states to do that.

The most unstable countries in MENA (Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria) are also the most corrupt according to Transparency International.

How can we tackle corruption?

Useful pointers for HOW

Nations determine their own fortunes.Nations determine their own fortunes.

No external force or agency could do that for them. No external force or agency could do that for them.

External powers promote their interests.External powers promote their interests.

Citizens must be Citizens must be able to able to and are and are allowed to allowed to take part take part in the nation’s affairs.in the nation’s affairs.

Back to governance, education, health, rights, Back to governance, education, health, rights, equality, etc. We know now what to focus on.equality, etc. We know now what to focus on.

The future is clear Young people (males and females) learning, and working Young people (males and females) learning, and working

under peaceful and equitable conditions that apply to all.under peaceful and equitable conditions that apply to all.

A start has been made: Arab Spring ““……dynasties and family cartels as the leadership of the dynasties and family cartels as the leadership of the

Arab republics has been rejected.”Arab republics has been rejected.”

A start has been made: Arab Spring ““The age of presidents-for-life and complete lack of The age of presidents-for-life and complete lack of

political accountability is coming to a close.”political accountability is coming to a close.”

Examples of WHYs:

The next few slides are included simply to illustrate the point that there has been undue emphasis on WHY and not much on HOW.

These slides will not form part of the discussion but are provided for reference purposes.

Examples included represent a very small proportion of what has been written and said about various parts of MENA and their problems.

It is to be emphasised that several Arab Human Development Reports published by UNDP presented authoritative evidence on the WHYs.

Examples of WHYs: about ISIS (IS)

Is the West financing Islamic extremists ?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg#t=211

ISIS was created/ funded by USAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg#t=211

“The foster parents of Isis… are Saudi Arabia, the Gulf monarchies and Turkey.”http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n16/patrick-cockburn/isis-consolidates

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/08/21/why-washingtons-war-on-terror-failed/

ISIS is an Iranian plot. http://www.elaph.com/Web/opinion/2014/8/930775.html

More WHYs: ISIS reflects our culture

هل تختلف شريعة الدواعش عن الشريعة االسالمية؟هل تختلف شريعة الدواعش عن الشريعة االسالمية؟(Are beliefs of ISIS different from beliefs of Islam?) http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=426288

ISIS is the rational outcome of our thinking, beliefs, and education.http://www.alqabas.com.kw/node/885877

Egyptian religious leaders giving Obama a choice between Islam or death !https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igh5tHaxJtA&feature=youtu.be

More WHYs: the blame game

The blame game:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-paying-for-bushs-2003-invasion-of-iraq/2014/08/11/2eee77ac-218a-11e4-86ca-6f03cbd15c1a_story.html

You want to be depressed about Iraq?:http://www.gicj.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=372&Itemid=41

Destruction of culture and heritage ?http://www.apsa2011.com/index.php/en/

Creative chaos, the New Middle East, and other ‘fictions about democracy’.http://www.alriyadh.com/960276

More WHYs: past revolutions were plots

The July 1952 revolution in Egypt and other uprisings: lessons yet to be learnt .http://www.ahram.org.eg/News/31273/4/312531/قضايا-واراء/نح-ن-ال-نعبر-النهرaspx.مرتين

Iraqi revolution of 1958 was organised by USA/ UK with Jordan http://www.sayyaraljamil.com/Arabic/viewarticle.php?id=index-20140713-2141

The CIA brought the Ba’ath Party to power http://www.alhakikanews.com/index.php/permalink/15415.html

More WHYs: plight of Arabs

Suffering of Palestinians :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxDYiBls99w

Bloodshed and repression in Egypt http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/13/egypt-violent-tyranny-bloodshed-west-complicit

Interview with Hanan Ashrawihttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqzCWJEqjjI

More WHYs: plight of Christians

Persecution of Christians in Middle East?http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-28602328http://www.hrw.org/ar/news/2014/07/19 http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0618/As-ISIS-advances-what-future-for-Iraqi-Christianshttp://www.spiegel.de/international/world/christian-iraqis-live-in-state-of-fear-of-isis-terrorists-a-976971.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/iraq-christians-seek-refuge-with-kurds-2014624867119947.html

Useful brain drain: deprive MENA and enrich the West: Arabichttp://www.al-akhbar.com/node/213756

Article by Prince Charles. Arabic http://classic.aawsat.com/leader.asp?section=3&article=773365&issue

no=12963#.U_3fCUtX9g0

More WHYs: women Lack of human rights: abuse of women in Iraqi jails :http

://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/iraq0214webwcover.pdf

Egypt 'worst for women' out of 22 countries in Arab worldEgypt 'worst for women' out of 22 countries in Arab worldhttphttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-2490810924908109

Numerous other examples.

More WHYs: odd people and attitudes

We will convert the whole world to Islam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KE7aKk6hgV4

Jihadists in Geneva :https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=592015540883277&set=vb.100002245106989&type=2&theater

On the psychology and intellect of the new religious leaders .http:// . . /- - - - / -www taqadoumiya net حفنةمن ام دين رجال منافقون شيوخ-- النصابينوالشاليتي/

Chanting on Iraqi Airways flight: http://fb.me/6CKM7lqk4

More WHYs: sectarianism and extremism

What Hassan Nasrallah (leader of Hezbollah) said about both sectarianism and extremism some eleven year ago:

http://www.yafita.com/a/1150282/سماحة-امين-عام-حزب-الل-ه-السيد-حسن-نصرالله-انظروا-ماذا-تنبأ-و-حذر-منه-قبل-11-سنة-هذاما-حصل-و-يحصل-اليوم-على-الرغم-من-ان-هذا-الخطاب-في-سنة-2003/

More WHYs: conflicting interests

A guide to Middle East politics in 2014:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/04/-sp-middle-east-politics-2014-egypt-syria-palestine-iraq-gaza

An optimistic and comprehensive review of the Arab Spring (focus on Egypt, Libya and Tunisia): extensive role of young persons and social media. With extensive facts and statistics.

The New Arabs, Juan Cole (2014), Simon and Schuster.

More WHYs: it is all the fault of leaders

The rot starts at the top!http://nyti.ms/1oAeoN1

Getting rid of Maliki is the end of the nightmare!http://www.aawsat.com/home/article/157531

Iraq sinking fast: Iraq sinking fast: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/18/Ahttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/18/AR2007061800568.html?hpid=topnews R2007061800568.html?hpid=topnews