panel sponsored by - milken institute · 2014. 8. 20. · asian higher education landscape access...
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Panel Sponsored by:
Non-High School
16%
Some College17%
Associate8%
Bachelor +26%
High School33%
Supply: Highest Level of Education(25 years and older)
Total personsage 25 and over:177.0 million
17% Bachelor only
Education and Training Pays…
Master’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Associate degree
Some college, no degree
High school graduate
Some high school, no
diploma
Unemployment rate in 2000
(Percent)
Median earnings in 2000
(Dollars)
1.6
1.8
2.3
2.9
3.5
6.5
55,300
46,300
35,400
32,400
28,800
21,400
200019951990198519801975
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
US$ Thousands
No High School DegreeHigh School GraduateBachelor's Degree
Education PaysWage Disparity by Educational Attainment
Asian Higher Education LandscapePercent of Workforce with Secondary Education or Better
Untapped Potential: Growing Pool of Postsecondary Students…
TaiwanHong Kong
South KoreaChina
JapanThailand
100
80
60
40
20
0
Year 2000Year 2020
Asian Higher Education LandscapeAccess to Higher Education (18-22 Year Old Students)
� In Malaysia, for example, an additional 5.4 million higher education slots are needed to get to 40%
� Online courses will capture at least half of this growth - $200+ billion opportunity by 2020
8.340%14%Malaysia
240.020%3%China
# of Students (mm)% of Students
16.145%42%U.S.
0.120%15%Hong Kong
11.08%4%India
Projected by 2020Current %
Global Demographic Changes Mirror the U.S.:Aging Populations, Increased Postsecondary Attendance, and Need for Skilled Labor
� Skilled white collar segment growing in excess of 2% per year in most Asian countries
� In the next 20 years there will be 36 million additional skilled white collar workers
Asia Is Changing
103 million81 millionSkilled white collar jobs
141 million93 millionPostsecondary graduates
40%31%Over age 40
Projected by 2020Current
The India OpportunityProjected High School and Higher Education Enrollment
• By 2010, higher education enrollment is projected to increase to 11.7 million from 2.1 million in 2000, with public universities restricted to a privileged few? 700,000 MBAs in demand, yet only 4,000 granted per year
? 30% of students attend private universities
20102000
20
15
10
5
0
Millions
SecondaryHigher
The Mexico OpportunityExpected Enrollment
• Over the next decade, Mexican high school and undergraduate program enrollments are expected to grow three times faster thanin the United States
• Led by the continued demand for higher paid, skilled workers, the supply of educational services has been outpaced by demand for those services
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1996A 2000A 2005E 2010E
High School Undergraduate
Mexico
2.2
1.4
2.61.9
3.32.6
4.03.4
Mill
ions
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1996A 2000A 2005E 2010E
High School Undergraduate
United States
14.114.4
14.9 15.1
15.9 16.115.5
17.5
Mill
ions
93
9
80514537261917
5 96 8
93 105127
5845
4733
2672 2778
3456
2063
12761014
757472453295145105
4033
6464
Q3 99
Q4 Q1 00
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 01
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 02
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q103
Q2
CampusesCoursesRegistrations
Online Learning Growth
Fiscal years
32% Compound Growth Rate
An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Return
Wealth Today Resides in Human Capital• Becker and others
estimate that roughly 70% of a nation’s wealth today is in the form of human capital rather than physical capital.
• The pecuniary returns to knowledge, education and skill are very high in the United States and even higher outside the most developed countries.
Investment in Human Capital as a Percent of GDP
17 – 25+Percent
9 - 11%
4 – 6%
4 – 8%
???
Schooling
On the Job Training
Health
Adult Education
More Use Internet For EntertainmentAs Percent of Internet Users Using the Internet
*People were allowed to select multiple activities (Based on Household Survey)
By Age GroupOnline
CoursesPlayingGames
10 to 14 0.7 63.015 to 19 2.1 58.220 to 24 5.5 47.325 to 29 5.5 38.630 to 39 4.6 34.940 to 49 4.2 30.650 to 59 3.6 26.560 to 69 1.9 28.6Total 3.4 40.9
Scientific Literacy of 15 Year OldsPerformance of 15 Year Olds on the PISA Literacy Scale
MexicoItaly
SpainGermany
U.S.U.K.
CanadaAustralia
KoreaJapan
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
Scale
Mean Score = 502
Mathematical Literacy of 15 Year OldsPerformance of 15 Year Olds on the PISA Literacy Scale
MexicoItaly
SpainGermany
U.S.U.K.
CanadaAustralia
KoreaJapan
600
550
500
450
400
350
Scale
Mean Score = 498
Vocational SchoolingNumber of Non-Degree Granting Institutions Offering
Post-Secondary Education
By Control '98-'99 '99-'00 '00-'01 '01-'02Public NA 501 532 501Private NA 4,664 4,544 4,558Total 5,437 5,165 5,076 5,059
Top 10 Fastest Growing IndustriesNumbers in Thousands of Jobs, 2002-2012
Industry Number PercentSoftware Publishers 173.7 67.9Management, Scientific, & Technical Consulting Services 405.6 55.4Community Care Facilities 382.3 55.0Computer Systems Design & Related Systems 635.0 54.6Employment Services 1763.5 54.3Individual and Vocational Rehabilitation Services 597.3 47.1Ambulatory Health Care Services 669.8 46.4Water, Sewage , and Other Systems 22.5 46.4Internet Services, Data Processing, and Other Info. Services 244.3 46.2Child Day Care Services 316.1 43.1
Change
Top 10 Fastest Growing OccupationsNumbers in Thousands of Jobs, 2002-2012
Occupations Number PercentMedical Assistants 215 59Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 106 57Physician Assistants 31 49Social and Human Services Assistants 149 49Home Health Aides 279 48Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 69 47Physician Therapist Aides 17 46Computer Software Engineers, Applications 179 46Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 128 45Physical Therapist Assistants 22 45
Change
Number of U.S. Jobs Moving OffshoreIn Thousands, By Job Category
Job Category 2000 2005 2010 2015Office 54.0 295.0 791.0 1659.3Computer 27.2 109.0 277.0 472.6Business 10.8 61.3 161.7 348.0Management 0.0 37.5 117.8 288.3Sales 4.6 29.1 97.3 226.6Architecture 3.5 32.3 83.2 184.3Legal 1.8 14.2 34.7 74.6Life Sciences 0.0 3.7 14.5 36.8Art, Design 0.8 5.6 13.8 29.6Total 102.7 587.6 1591.1 3320.2
IT - Most Active Area of Outsourcing2004
IT,28%
Human Resources,
16%
Sales & Marketing,
15%
Finance,11%
Admin.,9%
All Others,21%
U.S. Corporate Training Topics
IT Training, 33%
Other, 67%
Training and EducationAs Percent of Total GNP
Other, 90%
Corporate Market, 0.76%
Continuing Education,
0.14%
Training & Education,
9%
Tech-Driven Lecture/Lab
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Hours
Training HoursLecture/Lab Driven vs. Technology-Delivered
28
11.2
E-LearningAs % of Total Private Investments in Education Industry
20001999199819971996
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percent
Exponential Growth in the Corporate Online Learning Market
200320022001200019991998
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
US$ Billions
“The next big killer application for the Internet is going to be education. Education over the Internet is going to be so big it is going to make e-mail look like a rounding error.”
John Chambers-Cisco Systems
The Global Education Market
DemographicsHigher Education
MarketOutsourcing
Branding
Cons
olida
tion
InternetGlobalization
Six Megatrends Shaping the Global Higher Education Market
An Investment in Knowledge Pays the An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Return Best Return
An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Return
Wealth Today Resides in Human Capital
§ Becker and others estimate that roughly 70% of a nation’s wealth today is in the form of human capital rather than physical capital.
§ The pecuniary returns to knowledge, education and skill are very high in the United States and even higher outside the most developed countries.
Growth Depends on Recruiting and Retaining a Skilled Group of Knowledge Workers
The Costs of Recruitment Are Staggering
Retention Is Critical: Hiring Costs Are Sunk Costs
Knowledge Worker “Age-Wage” Gradients Are Steep
Investment in Human Capital as a Percent of GDP
17 – 25+Percent
9 - 11%
4 – 6%
4 – 8%
???
Schooling
On the Job Training
Health
Adult Education
0%
5%
10%
15%
1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 199660%
65%
70%
75%
Raw Labor
Human Capital
Raw Labor and Human Capital as a Percentage of National Income
Raw Labor Human Capital
Post-Secondary Education Premiums 1967-1997
College Entry in the United States
Percentage of High School Graduates That Continue To College
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Australia Canada France Germany Sweden Switzerland UnitedKingdom
United States
Non-university tertiary education
University-level education
Earnings of Tertiary Education as a Percent of Earnings of Upper Secondary Education
Men
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Australia Canada France Germany Sweden Switzerland UnitedKingdom
United States
Non-university tertiary education
University-level education
Women
Earnings of Tertiary Education as a Percent of Earnings of Upper Secondary Education
Post-Secondary Education is not Common Outside of the US
5.5 3.8
32.0
3.4
14.1
44.0
7.9
54.3
2.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Braz
il
Chin
a
Indi
a
Japa
n
Mal
aysi
a
Mex
ico
Sout
hKo
rea
Spai
n
US
Percent of 20 – 24 Year Olds Enrolled in Post-Secondary Education
Source: 1997 UNESCO Statistical Yearbook
Growth Coincides Precisely with Limited Supply
18.1
33.3
-1.7
46.4
39.5
16.3
1.3
20.615.7
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Braz
il
Chin
a
Indi
a
Japa
n
Mal
aysi
a
Mex
ico
Sout
hKo
rea
Spai
n US
Anticipated Percentage Population Growth 1997 - 2020
Source: 1998 World Almanac
MBA Programs Have Grown Dramatically
0
50,000
100,000
1956
1966
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
3,280
102,171MBA Degrees Granted 1956 to 1998
U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, Higher Education General Information Survey
People Come From Everywhere To Attend Business School in the US
16%Non-resident Alien
84%U.S. Citizen
16,294
85,877
U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, Higher Education General Information Survey 1997 - 1998
Approximately 420,000 Students Currently Are Enrolled in US MBA Programs
Full Time Students105,000
Part Time Students315,000
Degrees Conferred102,171
U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, “The 1995 – 1996 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study” unpublished data.
The Internet Has Been Adopted With Unprecedented Rapidity
7
13
15
22
26
30
34
35
44
46
54
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Air Travel
Household Electricity
Automobile
Telephone
VCR
Microwave Oven
Television
Radio
Personal Computer
Cellular Phone
The Internet
Number of years to achieve 25 percent U.S. penetration
The Value of The Internet
William Gladstone Michael Faraday
The Internet In The Context Of Other Recent Technologies
The Victorian Internet.
First built: 1774.
Coast-to-coast: 1869.
In 1966, the maximum
number of simultaneous
transatlantic calls was 138. Invented: 1926.
Took 50 yrs.
Before 75% of U.S.
households had
color TV.
Innovation In Education
Facilities
Scalability
JOHANNES GUTENBERG
JOHANNES GUTENBERG
MILMAN PARRY
Why are the Internet and Education when Combined like Money?
Technology-Based Education and Site-Based Learning are Complements
The History of Distance Learning
Learning Platform Version 1.0
Version 1.1
Version 1.2
One way communication
Tracking
A Linear Educational Platform
A Non-Linear Platform
Active tracking
TV is not our Model and Passivity Leads to Failure
Streaming Large Blocks of Text Is Useless
Research Universities Are Unique Institutions
Universities Have Content Knowledge but not Internet or Pedagogical Knowledge
Finding the Right MBA “Fit”