papua new guinea budget 2019 new guinea budget 2019 building a broader based economy budget alert...

Papua New Guinea Budget 2019Building a Broader Based EconomyBudget Alert

©2018 Deloitte PNG 2

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The key themes to the 2019 Budget are:

• Restructuring Government debt - borrowing smarter

• Focusing on revenue collection, including:

– Continued implementation of the medium term revenue strategy for tax reform and strengthening the IRC - taxing smarter

– Continued enforcement of Public Monies Management Regularisation (PMMR) Act 2017 to sweep revenue into the Consolidated Revenue Fund

– Diversification of the economy through policies encouraging Small to Medium Enterprises, agriculture projects and tourism

• Maintaining expenditure discipline and continued focus on supporting priority sectors

• Clearing the foreign exchange imbalance in the coming months through use of improved foreign currency receipts and external deb

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Key Indicators

• The 2019 GDP growth rate is forecast at 4.0%, with inflation easing to around 5.4%. 2018 GDP growth is forecast at 0.3%.

• The 2018 fiscal deficit (estimated at K1,897.2 million) is lower than anticipated, forecast at a debt to GDP ratio of 30.9%. This ratio is expected to reduce to 30.8% in 2019.

• The 2019 current account surplus is expected to be K21,062.5 million, or 23.8% of GDP, which is a 4.3% decline from the 2018 estimate.

Expenditure• 2019 Budget Expenditure envelope has increased by 5.5% on the expected 2018

outturns due to increased revenue forecasts (e.g. 50% minimum dividend policy rate for State Owned Enterprises).

• Key Government expenditure will focus on Tuition Fee Free Education, Free Primary Health Care, key national infrastructure projects, the Provincial and District Services Improvement Program, Agriculture, Tourism and Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

• To curb rising public sector payroll costs, which were significantly over budget, a major overhaul of Government payroll processes will be undertaken in an effort to keep personnel emoluments to 6% of GDP.

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Fiscal Reforms

Its been a relatively quiet year for fiscal reforms

given the changes of the past two years.

• Most notable is a reduction to personal income tax

to assist low earners, and removal of GST zero

rating for resource companies

• Significant tax reforms still lie ahead as part of the

medium term revenue strategy, which the

Government remains committed to.

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2017Actual

2018Proj

2019Proj

2020Proj

2021Proj

2022Proj

Economic growth

Total real GDP (%) 3.0 0.3 4.0 3.2 4.5 6.2

Non-Mining Real GDP (%) 0.2 3.1 3.1 5.4 4.9 9.7

Inflation

Average on Average (%) 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.0 4.5

Dec on Dec (%) 4.7 7.6 3.4 6.3 3.4 4.6

Real Exchange Rate Index

(2007 = 100) 132.9 133.1 135.7 139.9 143.8 147.0

Interest rate

Kina Rate Facility (KFR) 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25

Inscribed Stock (3 year yield) 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7

Mineral Prices

Gold (US$/oz) 1,258 1,261 1,218 1,255 1,257 1,343

Copper (US$/tonne) 6,166 6,476 6,200 6,270 6,220 6,318

Oil (Kutubu Crude: US$/barrel) 51 68 68 65 64 60

Nickel (US$/tonne) 10,415 11,190 9,556 10,648 10,648 12,231

Key facts and figures

Table 1: Key macroeconomic indicators (Source: Department of Treasury)


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2018Budget

2019Budget

Revenue 12,730.7 14,266.80

Expenditure 14,717.9 16,133.50

Net deficit -1,987.2 -1,866.70

% of GDP -2.5 -2.1

Government debt (Km) 25,455.5 27,322.2

Government debt (% GDP) 32.20% 30.8%

Continuous emphasis will be placed on revenue collection through increasing compliance efforts, new revenue measures, and non-tax revenues.

An increase of 12.1% is predicted in the total revenue and grants for 2019. This additional revenue is to be used to fund theGovernment’s priority and infrastructure and social program but importantly to reduce arrears, complete on-going projects and fund expenditure savings initiatives.

Key facts and figures

Table 2: Overall Budget balance (Source: Department of Treasury)


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2019 Budget – Underpinnings

Key Metrics

2019 Growth forecast at 4%: the Growth Drivers• Growth will be realised from recovery of Oil & Gas sector and from new resource project

developments, which will also drive non-mining economy. Continuing uncertainty over reforms to the resource sector, and the early stages of resource agreement negotiations means some challenges remain ahead for this economic driver.

• Diversification of the PNG economy with:– Expected growth in Rice, Sugar, Oil Palm, Cocoa, Coffee and Livestock – Growth of Small to Medium Enterprises (SME). Significant resources to be put into this sector

including: training; the unveiling of Credit Guarantee Corporation to facilitate lending to the sector; and opening of industrial parks.

– A focus on growing Tourism.– Encouraging investment through joint public / private initiatives.– Supplementing regional infrastructure development with projects funded by infrastructure tax

credits.


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©2018 Deloitte PNG

2019 Highlights

Economic snapshots

Debt(% of GDP) 2017

Debt(% of GDP) 2018

Debt(% of GDP) 2019

30.8%

31.9%

32.2%

Deficit(% of GDP) 2017



-2.1%-2.4% -2.5%


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Economic snapshots

Chart 1: Estimated commodity prices (Source: Department of Treasury)

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6000

7000

201520162017201820192020202120222023

Copper (US$/ton)

1000

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Gold (US$/oz)

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Smarter Borrowing

2019 Budget – Funding Highlights

2018 has seen improvements to and significant achievements in the funding position, which will benefit 2019 and beyond:

• Public Monies Management Regularisation (PMMR) Act 2017 resulted in the significant transfers into the Consolidated Revenue Fund. This is expected to continue into 2019.

• 10 year sovereign bond issue raised USD 500m, with interest set at 8.375%. This was oversubscribed sevenfold. The bond issue coincided with increased awareness of PNG through APEC, and is expected to facilitate further borrowing at better rates.

• Loans from ADB, the World Bank (each USD 300m over 3 years) and a Commercial Bank loan (USD 300m in 2019 for Budget support, interest rate expected around 6.5%). These will be used for:

– Debt restructuring, with reduction in less favourable short-term debt; and

– Clearing backlog of foreign currency calls.

• A debt to GDP ratio of 30.9% is forecast for 2018, down to 30.8% for 2019. This is on track to meet the target ratio capping of 30% by 2022.

• For State Owned Enterprises, a 50% minimum dividend policy rate to be introduced.


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Economic snapshots

2019 Highlights

Chart 2: Where does PNG’s revenue come from? (Source: Department of Treasury)

75%

18%

7%

Revenue

Tax revenue Other Revenue Grants

2019 revenue is projected to be PGK14,266.8 million, principally funded from tax revenues and based on an improved economic outlook. The 2019 budget marks the second year of implementing the Medium Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) 2018-22 and the revenue target remains on track with a number of tax reforms articulated in 2019 revenue plan.

More public entity trust accounts will be swept into the Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF) in the 2019 Budget which is expected to generate K750.6 million.


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©2018 Deloitte PNG

Economic snapshots

2019 Highlights

2018 saw a decrease in PIT collections due to expected compliance activities that did not materialize. It was also noted taxpayers used GST credits to offset PIT liabilities. As a result in 2019 the administration of credit offsets against PIT liabilities will be halted.

In 2019 CIT revenue is expected to accelerate with the establishment of the Large Tax Payers Office (LTO). The abolishment of double deduction for training levy is expected to generate K151 million in 2019.

MPT performed strongly in 2018 with the global commodity price increases and revamping of additional profits taxes. 2019 revenue projections have taken this into consideration.

GST expected to increase in 2019 with the removal of GST zero rating status for resource companies and projected higher economic growth.

Table 3: Tax revenue by source (Source: Department of Treasury)

Tax Revenue (Kina million)2017 2018 2018 2019

Actuals Budget Revised Budget

Personal Income Tax (PIT) 3,093.8 3,250.2 3050.5 2,949.5

Company Tax (CIT) 1,794.1 1,971.5 1,991.5 2,556.3

Mining and Petroleum Taxes (MPT) 113.6 89.5 362.50 428.1

Withholding and Other Income Taxes 327.0 253.5 297.2 313

GST 1,868.8 1,974.2 2,086.6 2,188.8

Stamp Duties 42.4 60.0 90.0 97.6

Excise Duty 757.3 782.3 793.9 922.7

Import Excise 347.8 395.1 297.3 321.7

Bookmakers' and Gaming Machine Turnover Tax 214.7 207.4 209.6 228.5

Other Taxes on Goods and Services 24.1 29.3 64.9 14.8

Import Duty 260.4 296.1 321.7 358.1

Export Tax 297.3 330.0 390.6 405.4

Grand Total 9,141.40 9,639.10 9,956.50 10,784.50


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©2018 Deloitte PNG

Economic snapshots

2019 Highlights

In 2019 other revenue is projected to increase by 5%. A total of K1.205 billion is expected in dividends from various entities including an K800 million from Kumul Petroleum.

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

2017 Actual

2018 Budget

2018 Revised

2019 budget

2017 Actual 2018 Budget 2018 Revised 2019 budget

Grand Total 943.8 2,066.70 2,419.20 2,539.20

Transfers, not elsewhere classified 18.5 631.4 904.3 1,153.30

Fines, Penalties and Forfeits 1.6 1 1 0.8

Sales of Goods and Services 62.8 112.5 63.3 124.2

Property income 860.9 1,321.90 1,450.60 1,260.80

Grand Total

Transfers, notelsewhere

classified

Fines, Penalties

and Forfeits

Sales of Goods

and Services

Property income

Chart 3: Other revenue by source (Source: Department of Treasury)


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2019 Budget – Other points to note

Key Government Priorities

Priority sectors• Health and education• Law and order• Nation building infrastructure• Support for the development of SMEs• Advancing financial inclusion through financial literacy programs• Adopting digital services and spreading mobile banking capabilities.

Spending power• Inflation forecast for 2019 down to 5.4%, from a 2018 forecast of 5.6%.• On a real wage basis, minimum wages declined by 5.4% in line with inflation. The minimum hourly

rate of K3.50 (K140.80 per week) remains. • Formal employment expected to increase strongly in the second half of 2018 (with manufacturing

sector anticipating 15% employment growth in 2018). This trend forecast to continue into 2019.


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2019 Highlights

Chart 4: Where does PNG’s expenditure go? (Source: Department of Treasury)

Provinces

19%

Administration

25%

Debt Services

12%

Health

10%

Education

8%

Law and Justice

8%

Transport

8%

Economic

5%

Community and

Culture

1%

Utilities

4%

Expenditure as a % of total budget 2019

Provinces Administration Debt Services Heath

Education Law and Justice Transport Economic

Community and Culture Utilities

Expenditure efficiency strategies will also be supported by the implementation of Non-Financial Instructions (NFIs). Department of Treasury was to issue NFIs and all government funded agencies are expected to report on the implementation status by April 2019.

Expenditure2018 (Kina,Mn)

2019(Kina,Mn)

Provinces 3,925 3,073

Administration 3,041.9 4,065

Debt Services 1,864.7 1,979.1

Health 1,505.9 1,553.1

Education 1,293.4 1,378.2

Law and Justice 1,063.5 1,298.1

Transport 937.1 1,287.4

Economic 665.9 742.1

Community and Culture 102.4 142.3

Utilities 318.2 615.2


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2019 Highlights

Table 4: Funding by Donor (Source: Department of Treasury)

Donor Grants Loans Total Percentage

DFAT (Australia) 711.4 - 711.4 40.42%

EU 78.9 - 78.9 4.48%

UN 74.7 - 74.7 4.24%

NZ 25.0 - 25.0 1.42%

China 0.5 298.0 298.5 16.96%

ADB 14.0 277.0 291 16.53%

WB - 90.4 90.4 5.14%

JICA 38.7 114.0 152.7 8.68%

Ceska / Erste - 23.0 23.0 1.31%

IFAD - 14.5 14.5 0.82%

Indian EXIM - - - -

EIB - - - -

Grand Total 943.10 816.90 1,760.1 100


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2019 Budget – Other points to note

Saving for the Future

Superannuation• By the end of 2018, Government to have fully settled liability owed to Nambawan Super for public

service members exiting between 2016 and 2018. • Ongoing exit payments expected to be K10m a month.• Reference was made to reforms allowing non-mandatory but voluntary contributions for non-

citizens, the self employed, and informal sector.

Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF)• SWF Board to be established in 2019.• However, SWF will not be fully operational until fund balances have been built up (from resource

receipts). No expected date specified.


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Detailed taxmeasures• Corporate Tax• GST• Personal Tax• Others Taxes• Tax Reform


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Key Measures

Corporate Tax

• Loss carry forward period reduced:

– For Resource and Primary Sector to 20 years (currently unlimited); and

– For other businesses from 20 years to 7 years.

• Non-Resident Insurer returns move to a monthly basis with payment 21 days after month end (currently annual).

• Technical adjustments made to Prescribed Contracts, Country by Country Reporting and Dividend Withholding payment regime.

Loss carry forward rules substantially

amended from 1 January 2019

with retrospective effect


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GST


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Key GST Measures

GST

• Zero rating for supplies to the resource companies removed from 1 January 2019.

• Offset of GST credits against Salary or Wages taxes no longer to be allowed.

Zero rating changed to deal with perceived GST evasion by suppliers.

Unless IRC refund process improves, these measures are likely to create significant cash flow difficulties for resource companies.


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Key Measures

Personal Tax

This measure gives back to individuals, with principal benefit aimed at the lower income earners.

New Income Tax Band

• Increased resident’s tax free threshold from K10,000 to K12,500

• Increasing the second tier tax band from K18,000 to K20,000

Personal Taxe

• Loss carry forward rules reduced from 20 to 7 years

• Educational rebate removed (25% X Expenditure to a maximum of K750)


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Key Measures

Personal Tax

Proposed rates and thresholds -ResidentCurrent rates and thresholds - Residents

Taxable Income Marginal tax rate

1-10,000 0

10,001 – 18,000 22

18,001 – 33,000 30

33,001 – 70,000 35

70,001 – 250,000 40

250,000+ 42

Taxable IncomeMarginal tax rate

Cumulativebenefit

1-12,5000

+K550

12,501 – 20,000 22 +K710

20,001 – 33,000 30

33,001 – 70,000 35

70,001 – 250,000 40

250,000+ 42


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Other Key Taxes Changes


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Key Measures

Other key tax changes

• IRC granted powers to prosecute IRC officers and other external offenders in respect of corrupt practices.

• Income Tax Regulations amended to allow Commissioner General to make decisions on outstanding Research and Development claims without the input of other officials or experts. This is a welcome move aimed at relieving the current impasse. The regime ceased in 2013.

• Due date for Business Income tax has been moved to 21st of the following months in line with other withholding taxes. However, no changes to salary or wages tax deadline announced.

• Tax Administration Act (TAA) was gazetted in August 2018. However, the TAA remains subject to the provisions of the existing tax Acts.


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Customs Duty

Other taxes

Introduction of 25% duty rate on imported milk and cream products.

Increase in import duties on meat and offal from K1.80 per Kg to K3.50 per Kg.

Increase in import duties on fish products.

Increase in duties on various wood products and furniture from 30% to 50%.

Trump Economics? – Measures to protect and encourage Local Industry, especially in the SME Sector


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Excise Duty

Other taxes

Adjustments to the indexation of alcohol and tobacco base rates and deferral of the increases for 18 months

Removal of excise on items no longer considered luxury items (e.g. Television).

Export duties levied on Sea Cucumber to preserve stocks (K15 per Kilo)


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Future TaxReforms


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What’s on the Horizon

Future Tax Reforms

The Budget papers specifically mention the following reforms:

• Introduction of a Capital Gains Tax.

• Simplified SME tax – Turnover less than K250,000, Cash basis taxation.

• Sugar Tax- aimed at soft drinks.

• Minimum tax at 2% of revenues for loss making companies.

• Mobile Telecommunications Tax – Additional profits tax for Telecommunications operators.

These areas are due

for further discussion

with stakeholders

during the next year


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Other Medium Term Revenue Strategies still being considered

Future Tax Reforms

• GST rate increases – If revenue is needed.

• Corporate tax rate decrease (excluding resource sector).

• GST exemption of Charities and Aid Organizations.

• Superannuation – Tax reform.

• Tax Act rewrite.

• Resource sector taxation.

MTRS is still the

main thrust

behind

Government

fiscal policy


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Reforms

Resource Sector

In 2019 the Government will embark on the following:

• Amending the Mining and Petroleum Acts.

• Policy for the State participation in resource projects and third party access to the Oil and Gas sector.

• Policy to guide the distribution of benefits to landowners and sub-national governments.

• Policy for domestic market obligations for Gas and Petroleum products.

• Introduction of policies and frameworks around ensuring national content.

Policy being amended

to better guide the

Government on

participating in

resource projects


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Parameters for future fiscal regime

Resource Sector

• Revenue maximization – minimum state share must be 50% in the early part of the project (without deterring investment).

• Cost and risk minimisation.

• Global competitiveness.

• Standardisation of fiscal terms (on a less concessional basis).

• Segmentation – treating upstream and midstream taxation of projects separately.

“The existing fiscal regime is

considered reasonably

concessional on global

standards”

39©2018 Deloitte PNG 39

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Contact

Benjamin Lee

Managing Partner

[email protected]

Andrew Harris

Partner

Tax and Business Services

[email protected]

Declan Mordaunt

Principal


[email protected]

Antonio Bernabe

Principal


[email protected]

Sanchika Sutharshan

Director


[email protected]

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