parliaments and unemployment€¦ · is europe working? 10.2 6.2 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2000...
TRANSCRIPT
Parliaments and unemploymentCan anything be done?
(BIMR) Conference of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA),
Amathus Hotel, Limassol, 24 May 2015
By Fiona Mullen
Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd
Structure of talk
• Some unemployment comparisons
• Some other data comparisons
• What parliaments cannot do
• What parliaments can do
• How the “best in class” keep unemployment low
• Conclusions
Is Europe working?
10.2
6.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unemployment rate (%)
EU28 US
Source: Eurostat
And it is worse in the periphery
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
'SICPIG' unemployment rates %
EU28 ES-IE-CY-PT-IT-EL
Source: Eurostat
Why is Malta an exception?
5.05.9
6.6
11.312.7
14.1
16.1
24.5
26.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Germany Malta Denmark Ireland Italy Portugal Cyprus Spain Greece
Unemployment rates by country, 2014 (%)Source: Eurostat
Some improvement for females overall
8.1
10.1
9.9
10.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Male-Female unemployment rates %
EU28 Male EU28 Female
Source: Eurostat
But youth unemploym’t a blight on our future
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
22.2
13.4
Youth unemployment rate %
EU28 under-25s US under 25s
Source: Eurostat
Again it is worse for the periphery (ex Malta)
7.7
11.8
12.6
13.4
16.9
22.2
23.9
34.7
35.9
42.7
52.4
53.2
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Germany
Malta
Denmark
US
UK
EU28
Ireland
Portugal
Cyprus
Italy
Greece
Spain
Youth unemployment rates in 2014 (%)Source: Eurostat
But do we have to be the US-UK?
Source: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data/map
Or can we be the Nordics?
62.000 64.000 66.000 68.000 70.000 72.000 74.000 76.000 78.000 80.000 82.000
Sweden
Iceland
Norway
UAE
Hong Kong
Switzerland
Australia
Denmark
Qatar
Singapore
Best country to live (composite index)
Source: http://www.lifestyle9.com/worlds-best-country-to-live-in-2013/6/
What is the role for parliaments in employment?
Lessons from psychology and counselling
• Don’t get angry about what you cannot change
• Focus on what you have control over
What parliaments cannot change
• Globalisation (changing locations for production & services)
• Uncertainty (conflict, crisis, climate change)
• Disruptive technology (the robots are coming!)
What parliaments can change
• Tax base: tax wealth not jobs?
• Tax incentives (1): training, childcare, flexibility incentives
• Tax incentives (2): debt (interest write-offs) or equity (investment)?
• Active labour market policies
• The debate: protect employability not specific jobs
• The mood: cooperation v. confrontation
• Education including encouraging vocational
• Engaging the next generation of voters
10 hardest jobs to fill globally
1. Technicians
2. Sales Representatives
3. Skilled Trades Workers
4. Engineers
5. Labourers
6. Managers/Executives
7. Accounting and Finance Staff
8. IT Staff
9. Production Operators
10. Secretaries, Personal & Administrative Assistants
Source: ManpowerGroup 2011 survey, 39 countries, 40,000 companies
Manpower’s eight recommendations for how companies can help youth employment1. Participate in career guidance programmes for youth still in school
2. Support projects to provide career and labour market information
3. Promote a more positive image for vocational education
4. Partner with demand-driven training-to-employment programmes
5. Create & engage with programmes that build work experience
6. Engage with “Dual” training and work experience programmes
7. Commit to hiring, training, and mentoring youth
8. Invest in entrepreneurship education in educational establishments
How Denmark does it
• Cooperation not confrontation (75% unionised)
• “…collective bargaining model … has ensured extensive worker protection while taking changing production and market conditions into account”. http://denmark.dk/en/society/welfare/flexicurity/
• No jobs for life: 25% of labour force changes jobs each year
• Yet unemployment benefits of up to 90% of salary for lowest paid
• Active labour market policy: 1.5% of GDP spent on “guidance, a job or education”
Low unemployment but better protection than US-UK
Source: http://www.socialeurope.eu/2013/12/flexicurity-model-never/
Final note: be careful what you wish for(CY govt sat on cash as parliament blocked laws that would release bailout tranches)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Fixed investment & projects under construction:increase in budget for 2015
Primary surplus in 2014
19
455
Cyprus: primary surplus 2014 & Budgeted capital spend 2015 (€ m)
Conclusions
• Use party/parliamentary networks to learn from the best in class
• Do your homework: research evidence-based policies that work
• Advocate responsible policy-making (not lowest denominator)
• Show the next generation you care …
• …and they might even vote for you!