parsons & red cross pablo
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Your design skills can save lives:
Can Parsons and the Red Cross help each other?
Pablo Suarez, Ph.D.
Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre& Boston University
Nov 3, 2009 Parsons School of Design
Evidence of change: Andean glacier (Yanamarey, Perú)
1987
19972005
1987
Unusual climate anomalies and events (2005)
Remarkable progress (collect, store, process, disseminate)
Need to adapt
What about marginal communities?
Challenges of New Climatic Predictions
A. Patt, with data from IRI
Mme. Khin Cho Cho Shein vs Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar)
Photo: A. Patt
Reaching out: "Parachuting in" with new info?
Climate change: the basics
• Greenhouse effect
• Global warming
• Sea Level rise
• Changes in winds & currents
• More extreme events
• “Synergies” with other problems
• Linkages across sectors
Apocalypsis?
Climate Change is a Humanitarian Problem
How will the Red Cross be affected?
More funding availableGEF, EU (& eventually US)
Focus on community level
Focus on NGOs
More workMore, stronger, new disasters
More poverty & injustice
Solutions may become problems
Options
MitigationAvoiding changes in atmosphere so the climate doesn’t get worse. (CC causes - atmospheric chemistry)
AdaptationGetting ready for a climate that will continue to get worse. (CC consequences - climate risks)
11
Participatory Workshops for Adaptation
Intro: “learn & share”
Flood impacts?
What during flood?
Causes?
Info: predictability
What can be done differently?
Exposure
Vulnerability
Adaptive Capacity
Community-level preparedness for a changing climate Planning access to flood shelters in Bangladesh
Community-level preparedness for a changing climate Water transport in southern Africa
Pablo’s flights - sample 12 months
Apr 29, 2008 Boston – Washington IAD
Apr 30 Washington IAD – Boston
May 1 Boston – Louisville KY
May 4 Louisville KY – Boston
Jun 1 Boston – Miami
Miami – Panama
Jun 4 Panama – Miami
Miami – Buenos Aires
Jun 13 Buenos Aires – Dallas
Jun 14 Dallas – Washington IAD
Washington IAD – Rome
Jun 15 Rome – Addis Ababa
Jun 23 Addis Ababa – Entebbe
Jun 25 Entebbe - Addis Ababa
Jun 27 Addis Ababa – Lilongwe
Jul 5 Lilongwe - Addis Ababa
Addis Ababa – Rome
Jul 6 Rome – Washington IAD
Washington IAD – Boston
Jul 16 Boston – Washington IAD
Jul 18 Washington BWI – NY LGA
New York LGA – Boston
Jul 22 Boston – IAD
IAD – Boston
Sep 9 Boston – Miami
Miami – San Salvador
Sep 15 San Salvador – Miami
Miami – New York JFK
Sep 26 Boston – Dallas
Dallas - Tokyo NRT
Sep 28 Tokyo HND – Hiroshima
Oct 4 Hiroshima – Tokyo HND
Tokyo NRT – LosAngeles
LosAngeles – Boston
Oct 6 Boston – London LHR
Oct 7 London LHR – Nairobi
Nairobi – Mombasa
Oct 11 Mombasa – Nairobi
Nairobi – Dakar
Oct 15 Dakar – Paris CDG
Oct 16 Paris CDG – London City
Oct 19 London LHR – Paris CDG
Paris CDG – Johannesburg
Oct 22 Johannesburg – Amsterdam
Oct 23 Amsterdam – Vienna
Oct 27 Vienna – Zurich
Zurich – Delhi
Nov 4 Delhi – London LHR
London LHR – Boston
Nov 11 New York JFK – Miami
Miami – Mexico
Nov 14 San Luis Potosí – Mexico
Mexico – Dallas
Dallas – Boston
Nov 30 Boston – London LHR
Dec 1 London LHR – Warsaw
Dec 9 Poznan – Warsaw
Warsaw – London LHR
London– New York JF
New York – Buenos Aires
Dec 22 BuenosAires - NewYork JFK
Dec 23 New York JFK – Boston
Feb 5, 2009 Boston – Washington DCA
Feb 7 Washington IAD – Atlanta
Atlanta – FortLauderdale
Feb 11 FortLauderdale - Atlanta
Feb 12 Atlanta – Boston
Feb 20 Boston – London LHR
Feb 21 London LHR – Amsterdam
Feb 26 Amsterdam – Addis Ababa
Mar 6 Addis Ababa – Bahir Dar
Mar 8 Bahir Dar– Addis Ababa
Mar 10 Addis Ababa - Amsterdam
Mar 11 Amsterdam – Copenhagen
Mar 13 Copenhagen-Vienna
Mar 17 Vienna-Istambul
Mar 25 Istambul – London LHR
London LHR – Chicago
Chicago - Boston
Apr 2 Boston – Munich
Apr 3 Munich – Cologne
Apr 5 Cologne – Munich
Munich – Boston
Apr 11 Boston – Amsterdam
Apr 17 Amsterdam - Boston
Apr 18 Hartford – Cincinnati
Cincinnati – Denver
Apr 22 Denver – Atlanta
Atlanta – Hartford
H E L P ! ! ! !
! ! !
Columbia U: Masters in Climate & Society
Internship example #1: Emergency appeal in West Africa
Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)
Movie time!
~10 Red Cross colleagues from East Africa
Internship example #2: Malawi farmers become filmmakers
Movie time!
MDG indicators MW US
1. GDP per capita $ 667 $41,890
2. Adult illiteracy rate 36% 1%
4. Child mortality
(per 1,000 live births)
120 7
5. Maternal mortality ratio
(per 100,000 births)
1,100 13
6. People living with HIV
(15-49 years old)
11.9% 0.6%
8. Internet users (2005) 0.4% 70%
Our new ducks float during floods. Chickens used to drown
and die
Communicating Climate Change in ArgentinaAdvocacy through Urban Art
Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity:Disaster management explorations via games
Concrete Parsons-RedCross Collaboration Ideas
1. Game to help convert early warning into early actionTomorrow (Wed) 9am: Game Jam info session
Nov 23-25: workshop in Senegal
2. Improving web-based forecast maproom
3. Mapping info about risk assessments (PIIM)
4. SMS-based disaster management in Uganda
5. Global reports on urbanization and climate: beyond print?IFRC
UN HABITAT
Traveling exhibit on gender & climate
6. Simple technological solutions
7. Awareness campaigns (Bali fan, etc)
Last slide: Things to remember
1. The climate is changingWe know the change will continue
We have to prepare for a changing climate
The Red Cross needs help from folks like you
2. What to do?Internships Masters theses Major research projects
Class projects Doctoral dissertations Other?
3. What to expect?No $$
No predictability
4. More info?
www.climatecentre.org
Interested? Send a 1-page CV and 1-page letter of interest at [email protected]
Game Jam Info Session:
Parsons to help the Red Cross turn information into decisions
Nigel Snoad & Pablo Suarez Parsons School of DesignNov 4, 2009
1. From forecasts to disaster management: why games?
2. Vision for Parsons-RedCross game collaboration
3. Senegal, Nov 23-25
4. Next steps
Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity:Disaster management explorations via games
SCIENTISTS
What is their job? Predictions (information)
What matters? Predictable events (extreme rain, temp, etc)
What timeline matters?
Time between prediction and actual event
What “chances” matter?
Probability of event materializing
The gap between forecasters and humanitarian workers
RED CROSS STAFF
Decisions (action)
Avoidable losses (death, hunger, etc)
Time needed to implement decisions
Risk of losses so high as to deserve action
Given what we know as of May 15 2008, we can say that, for the period June-August 2008 in the areas of West Africa highlighted in the map, the probability of seeing precipitation that would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to between 40% and 50%
Scenario: a fax with this forecast arrives to the Red Cross office
“For the period June 24-30, Southern and Central Senegal are likely to
receive above normal rains. The probability of seeing precipitation that
would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to
above 50%.”
Group exercise (last July, Senegal)
Task: What risk management decisions could this forecast trigger?
a) How much time is needed from decision to action?
b) Is the threat serious enough to trigger this action? Yes or no?
What does it depend on?
c) What if the forecast doesn’t materialize?
Community workshop to design flood contingency plan
Activation of community early warning procedures
Preparation of shelters/camps
Refreshment training of Red Cross volunteers (search & rescue, first aid, etc)
Evacuation of people at risk
Pre-disaster assessment of capacity to respond to imminent crisis
Activation and implementation of existing contingency plan
In-country procurement of relief supplies to replenish minimum stocks
Procurement of relief supplies from abroad to respond to catastrophic event
Pre-positioning of relief supplies, logistics and human resource assets
Communications (both telecommunications and media)
Other?
Examples of disaster management options
Your design skills can save lives:
Can Parsons help climate scientists help the Red Cross?
Pablo Suarez, Ph.D.
Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre& Boston University
A. Patt, with data from IRI
Columbia U: Masters in Climate & Society
Sample forecasting maps from scientists
Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)
Movie time!
~10 Red Cross colleagues from East Africa
Existing web-based tool that we can work on