Part 1:

AttributionOne of the best-kept secrets in online marketing is that most campaign attribution data is wrong.[

Digital Trends:Predictions for 2019 and Beyond

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2For more strategic predictions go to mni.com, or email janine.pollack@mni.com.Digital Trends: Predictions for 2019 and Beyond

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One of the best-kept secrets in online marketing is that most campaign attribution data is wrong. What’s worse is that many companies involved in digital marketing aren’t even aware they have a problem...[which] likely means that hundreds of millions of dollars are wasted annually on marketing efforts that don’t produce their intended resuilts.”

- Eric T. PetersonCEO, Web Analytics Demystified “Appropriate Attribution”

Source: Mind The Gap | Dun & Bradstreet | 2018.

Which of these data-driven advertising and marketing tactics do you currently use or plan to use in 2019?

35% 49% 17%

56% 35% 9%

46% 38% 16%

41% 44% 15%

47% 39% 14%

38% 44% 18%

33% 43% 23%

48% 38% 14%

Predictive analytics

Creating actionable data-driven insights

Real-time optimization of campaigns

Multi-channel attribution

Cross-device targeting

1:1 targeted customer engagement

Personalized experiences across all channels

Personalized digital experiences

Currently use

In our plans for the next 12-24 months

No plans to implement

Stuck in a one-click world? Can’t justify your head terms, display buy, content-based email campaign, or any other top-of-funnel campaigns? You’re not alone; attribution is a complex topic. While the goal of marketing attribution is simple—assigning credit where it’s due—it’s the implementation that is more complex than ever. Marketers stumble when it comes to choosing the right attribution model for their marketing efforts, often losing sight of the true goal of attribution—measurement. While nearly 75% of marketers find attribution important or critically important 1, only one-out-of-four marketers are highly confident they can measure ROI across media 2.

The Attribution Game Changer

Pitching a Marketing and Advertising Attribution ModelThe data explosion has rendered single-touch, first/last click, and other simplistic models passé; the buzzwords across industries, both B2B and B2C, are “cross-channel,” “multi-touch attribution,” and “online-to-offline attribution,” and for good reason.

The biggest problem with single-touch attribution is that it ignores all the assisting clicks or efforts, assigning all of the conversion credit to just one action. Yet nearly 65% of marketers continue to use a single-click attribution model 1.

58.5% of U.S. companies were expected to use multi-touch attribution models for their digital marketing efforts by the end of 2018 3.

3Digital Trends: Predictions for 2019 and Beyond

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Multi-touch attribution looks at journeys of individual users, and analyzes the path-to-conversion across multiple touchpoints. Account-specific, near-real-time data is converted into insights about how digital and non-digital marketing campaigns are performing at each level, from vendors to channels to creative. This helps measure the impact that each individual digital touchpoint has on conversion.

There are pros and cons to any attribution model, and multi-touch is no different. While its digital roots give multi-touch attribution analysis software the data it needs to deep-dive into the customer journey, it may lead to under-attribution of offline activities. Moreover, it still often relies on a single algorithm, which only analyzes data in one predefined way.

A 2018 Forrester Research report estimates that mobile influences 34% of total U.S. retail sales, or well over $1 trillion. By 2022, this number is expected to rise to 42% 4.

“The industry trend is definitely moving quickly and irreversibly toward social media, digital, and personalization, with an absolute requirement for data and analytics to understand the impact of money spent on media.”

- The Nielsen CMO Report 2018

Digital Trends: Predictions for 2019 and Beyond [ Attribution / mni.com

As digital increasingly influences everyday life, the lines between online and offline are blurring, especially for the younger demographic. Nearly 43% of Millennials research online and buy in-store; 20% both research and buy in-store; 19% both buy and research online; and 13% research in-store and buy online 4. The need to tie online efforts to offline conversions, and vice-versa, is becoming vital for multi-channel organizations to thrive.

67% of shoppers regularly use more than one channel to make purchases 5.

This is where cross-channel attribution using advanced analytics to allocateproportional credit—be it revenue, traffic, or other KPIs—to each marketing touchpoint, across all online and offline channels, that led to a desired customer action.

How do you define attribution?It’s the bridge between advertising and sales data.

• Attribution analyzes touchpoints and assigns credit.

• Attribution metrics empower companies to make informed decisions.

• Attribution makes media plans more efficient.

4Digital Trends: Predictions for 2019 and Beyond

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What to Expect in 2019

Holistic Attribution is a seemingly futuristic model of measurement wherein a true closed-loop look at both the digital and physical touchpoints that influenced the purchase journey is achieved.

For more strategic predictions go to mni.com, or email janine.pollack@mni.com.

Cross-Channel Attribution ModelingAs organizational silos collapse, allowing access to integrated, end-to-end customer data, cross-channel attribution becomes a more realistic model for implementation and measurement.

78% of marketers plan to adapt or increase their use of cross-channel attribution 5.

Online-to-Offline MeasurementThe demand for better O2O measure-ment will increase, as data in huge quantities and better quality is tracked and available for analytics. Location-based—particularly ‘always on’—data collection and in-store foot traffic measurement will enjoy more acceptance and implementation, especially in B2C commerce industries such as retail and auto.

O2O Attribution in ActionLocation data’s ability to show the impact of a mobile ad campaign on physical behavior offers marketers a crucial connector of a person’s online and offline activities. If a retailer deploys ads to shoppers’ smartphones when they enter a geo-fenced perimeter around certain outlets, the attribution model can provide insights into how many people viewed or clicked on the ad, and then visited the retailer’s locations.

Industry Leaders Gear UpNew and powerful offerings from industry leaders, such as Facebook’s offline conversion features and Google’s offline conversion tracking, will enable organizations to better connect digital efforts to real-world actions.

In November 2017, Google and Salesforce announced a global partnership, enabling GoogleAnalytics360 clients to integrate online and offline customer touchpoints.

Holistic Attribution ModelingThe practice of Holistic attribution may see slow growth, as marketers understand the importance of collecting data reflective of the in-store experience beyond just measurement—digital campaign optimization, customer segmentation and even in-store personalization.

Holistic attribution factors in and credits influence on all marketing and other brand-imposed touchpoints, across both the digital and physical universes. Unlike multi-touch attribution, it applies to all forms of marketing, not just digital ones. Here, attribution is not limited to marketing touchpoints—it includes any interaction or engagement a brand might have with a consumer, be it in-store, online, from a call center, or elsewhere.

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Sources

[1] 2017 State of Performance Marketing | AdRoll

[2] The Nielsen CMO Report 2018

[3] 2017 Multichannel Attribution Roundup | eMarketer

[4] O2O Measurement and Marketing 2018 | eMarketer

[5] The Attribution Blog | Leads Rx | 2017

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