part 1 the case for a major paradigmn shift towards disaster resiliency during 2014 and beyond
DESCRIPTION
It will require new thinking and a strategic concentration of limited national and global resources to move from the current status quo of depending upon almost all emergency response operations to cope with almost all natural hazards to a wise mix of anticipation of what will likely happen, and implementation of the five integrated disaster resiliency policies to cope with the expected and unexpected that happen all the time a natural hazard occurs in our chaotic world. Who can provide the leadership for this kind of major paradigm shift? Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster ReductionTRANSCRIPT
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• LANDSLIDES• WILDFIRES
THE CASE FOR A MAJOR PARADIGMN SHIFT FROM
RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCY
DURING 2014 AND BEYONDPART 1
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• LANDSLIDES• WILDFIRES
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
NO DISASTERS:
CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
A DISASTER:
INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
YOUR COMMUNITY
YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• ALL HAZARDS MAPS
• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION
DISASTER RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
TOWARDS ALL HAZARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PPREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EARLY WARNING• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
RESILIENCY MEASURESRESILIENCY MEASURES
• PREPAREDNESS (ANTICIPATE EVERYTHING)
• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)
• EARLY WARNING
(GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY)
• PREPAREDNESS (ANTICIPATE EVERYTHING)
• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)
• EARLY WARNING
(GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY)
RESILIENCY MEASURESRESILIENCY MEASURES
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE (SAVE LIVES & PROTECT PROPERTY)
• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION (RESTORE & NORM-ALIZE SERVICES)
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE (SAVE LIVES & PROTECT PROPERTY)
• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION (RESTORE & NORM-ALIZE SERVICES)
LET’S TALK ABOUT BENEFIT-TO-COST
RATIOS JUST FOR FOR EARTHQUAKES
NOTE: Actual B/C Ratios Are A Function Of Each National
Effort; These Are Illustrative
DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST
DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000,000
THE PAYOFF IS A BETTER, SAFER, AND MORE SECURE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVERYONE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000,000
THE PAYOFF IS A BETTER, SAFER, AND MORE SECURE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVERYONE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS
ENABLES ALL SECTORS OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THEIR RISKS AND HOW TO LIVE WITH THEM
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
PUBLIC AWARENESS
ENABLES ALL SECTORS OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THEIR RISKS AND HOW TO LIVE WITH THEM
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE
SPEEDS RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; CAN PROMOTE PROTECTION
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE
SPEEDS RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; CAN PROMOTE PROTECTION
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
BUILDING CODE
PREVENTS COLLAPSE; RE-DUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
BUILDING CODE
PREVENTS COLLAPSE; RE-DUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
LIFELINE STANDARDS
PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
LIFELINE STANDARDS
PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
NON-STRUCTURAL PROTECTION
PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
NON-STRUCTURAL PROTECTION
PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE-HAZARD BUILDINGS
PREVENTS ALMOST CERTAIN LOSS OF LIFE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE-HAZARD BUILDINGS
PREVENTS ALMOST CERTAIN LOSS OF LIFE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
SEISMIC ZONATION
IDENTIFIES LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
SEISMIC ZONATION
IDENTIFIES LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
RETROFIT, STRENGTHENING, & REHABILITATION
ELIMINATES VULNERABILITIES; REDUCES DAMAGE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
RETROFIT, STRENGTHENING, & REHABILITATION
ELIMINATES VULNERABILITIES; REDUCES DAMAGE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
EDUCATION AND TRAINING
EXPANDS PRO-FESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
EDUCATION AND TRAINING
EXPANDS PRO-FESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
SOIL REMEDIATION
PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000
SOIL REMEDIATION
PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN
PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF IMPORTANT STRUCTURES
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN
PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF IMPORTANT STRUCTURES
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
URBAN PLANNING
CONTROLS DENSITY AND USE OF LAND; PROMOTES AVOID-ANCE STRATEGIES
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10
URBAN PLANNING
CONTROLS DENSITY AND USE OF LAND; PROMOTES AVOID-ANCE STRATEGIES
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10
BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT
BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT
DISASTER SCENARIOS
FACILITATES COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS FOR THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN
1< BENEFIT/COST < 10
DISASTER SCENARIOS
FACILITATES COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS FOR THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN
1< BENEFIT/COST < 10
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
RELOCATION AND REROUTING
REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS
1< BENEFIT/COST < 10
RELOCATION AND REROUTING
REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS
1< BENEFIT/COST < 10
OVERVIEW OF THE EARTHQUAKE
EXPERIENCE
SEISMICITY: USASEISMICITY: USA
SEISMICITY
SEISMICITY
Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism
Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism
NORTHNORTHWESTWEST
Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism
Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism
NORTHNORTHWESTWEST
REGIONAL DEFORMATION
EARTHQUAKE
TSUNAMI
VIBRATION
FAULT RUPTURE
FOUNDATION FAILURE
AMPLIFICATION
LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDE
AFTERSHOCKS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD CHARACTERIZATION
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD CHARACTERIZATION
• WHERE?• WHEN?• HOW BIG?• SEVERITY OF
GROUND SHAKING?
• SEVERITY OF OTHER EFFECTS?
• UNCERTAINTY?
• WHERE?• WHEN?• HOW BIG?• SEVERITY OF
GROUND SHAKING?
• SEVERITY OF OTHER EFFECTS?
• UNCERTAINTY?
ITALY: MMI MAP
PUERTO RICO: PGA MAP
SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE
SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE
SITUATION: LIVING IN AN ACTIVE FAULT ZONE
SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE
SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE
A TSUNAMIA TSUNAMI
• TSUNAMIS TRAVEL AT 800 KM/ HOUR, SLOWING TO 50-500 KM/HR AS SHORE IS REACHED
• WAVE HEIGHTS CAN REACH 30 M OR MORE
• WAVES CAN TRAVEL 2 KM OR MORE INLAND
• TSUNAMIS TRAVEL AT 800 KM/ HOUR, SLOWING TO 50-500 KM/HR AS SHORE IS REACHED
• WAVE HEIGHTS CAN REACH 30 M OR MORE
• WAVES CAN TRAVEL 2 KM OR MORE INLAND
LOCATIONSLOCATIONS
• TSUNAMIS OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY IN THE CIRCUM-PACIFIC REGION
• OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INDIAN OCEAN, HAWAII, CARIBBEAN, PUERTO RICO, VIRGIN ISLANDS, GUAM, WESTERN USA, AND MEDITERRANEAN
• TSUNAMIS OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY IN THE CIRCUM-PACIFIC REGION
• OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INDIAN OCEAN, HAWAII, CARIBBEAN, PUERTO RICO, VIRGIN ISLANDS, GUAM, WESTERN USA, AND MEDITERRANEAN
SITUATION:TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
SITUATION:TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
SITUATION: TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP - HAWAII
SITUATION: TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP - HAWAII
SITUATION: AFTER TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP
SITUATION: AFTER TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP
SITUATION: GROUND SHAKING DAMAGE
The Kocaeli(Turkey) Earthquakeof 17 August 1999
SITUATION: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT UNIT
SITUATION: FAILURE OF URM BUILDING
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNIT
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO A HOUSING UNIT
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO A HOUSING UNIT
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: COLLAPSE OF HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: COLLAPSE OF HOUSING UNITS
SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE--LIQUEFACTION
SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE--LIQUEFACTION
SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE-- LANDSLIDE
SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE-- LANDSLIDE
SITUATION: LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS
SITUATION: LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS
• THE 1964 PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED A LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS
• MILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS OF SOIL AND ROCK WERE DIS[LACED
• THE 1964 PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED A LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS
• MILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS OF SOIL AND ROCK WERE DIS[LACED
SITUATION: LOSS OF POWER AND AN URBAN FIRE
SITUATION: LOSS OF POWER AND AN URBAN FIRE
THE CASE FOR A MAJOR PARADIGMN SHIFT FROM
RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCY
DURING 2014 AND BEYONDGO TO PART 2