part 3 early warning: the five pillars of disaster resilience
DESCRIPTION
Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the disaster agents of a natural hazard from causing a disaster. The state-of-monitoring and messaging in “the moment” increases as a community’s capability to understand what will likely happen increases. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster ReductionTRANSCRIPT
EXAMPLE 4: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• MEMPHIS, TN
(USA) FLOOD
THREAT: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC PRE-
PAREDNESS
THE FIVE PILLARS OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Part 3: Early Warning
YOUR
NATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•MONITORING
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATIONR
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EM RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
5 PILLARS OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DISASTER RESILIENCE IS A FAILED
POLICY WITHOUT THE ADOPTION AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE
INTEGRATED POLICIES
(i.e., The Five Pillars of Disaster
Resilience)
WHAT IS PREPAREDNESS, THE
FIRST PILLAR?
(Preparedness is
a state of readiness on individual,
urban, sub-regional, and national
scales that is sufficient to keep the
disaster agents of a natural hazard
from causing a disaster
WHAT IS PROTECTION, THE
SECOND PILLAR?
(Protection is
a mandated state of robustness and
strength for important buildings and
essential - critical infrastructure
to prevent loss of function when a
natural hazard ocurs
EARLY WARNING, THE THIRD
PILLAR,
IS ALSO ESSENTIAL
FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
WHAT IS EARLY WARNING?
(Early Warning is
a state of monitoring and messaging
“in the moment” that activates
evacuation plans to save lives and
accelerates site-specific
preparedness to protect property
KEY ELEMENTS OF
MONITORING
• Land-, air-, ocean-, and satellite- based
instrument packages and systems that
monitor signals in real time related to
the creation, formation, movement, and
changes of the potential disaster
agents of hurricanes, typhoons,
cyclones, earthquakes and tsunamis,
volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.
KEY ELEMENTS OF
MONITORING (continued)
• The data on the creation, formation,
and movement of potential disaster
agents generated by hurricanes and
typhoons, earthquakes and tsunamis,
volcanic eruptions, and wildfires are
transmitted to analysis centers for
analysis and messaging, as
appropriate, on the perceived threats.
KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING
• A CREDIBLE SOURCE: e.g., National
Hurricane Centers; Tsunami Warning
Center. others
• THE MESSAGE: e.g., The threat, where
and when it will happen; actions that
are appropriate to go out of harm’s way,
or, if not evacuating, to accelerate
increased preparedness
KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING
• COMMUNICATION CHANNELS: satellite
–based, real-time, electronic messaging
processes that connect the data
analysis centers to institutions in every
nation as well as global media outlets.
• THE RECEIVERS: Some, but not all of
the people who receive the message,
will understand and respond.
EXAMPLES OF PEOPLE
TYPICALLY EVACUATED
• PEOPLE LIVING IN THE ”RED DANGER
ZONES”
• SCHOOL CHILDREN
• THE ELDERLY AND HANDICAPPED
• PATIENTS IN HOSPITALS,
• TOURISTS
• HOMELESS
EXAMPLES OF THINGS
TYPICALLY EVACUATED
• FISHING BOATS
• NAVAL SHIPS
• MILITARY AIRCRAFT
EXAMPLES OF SITE-SPECIFIC
“ACCELERATED PREPAREDNESS”
• HOUSES, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS
IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONE”
• BUSINESSES AND HOTELS IN THE
”RED DANGER ZONES”
THE GOAL
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
DISASTER
RESILIENCE:
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
REALITY
UNANTICIPATED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
LACK OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
INSUFFICIENT EARLY
WARNING BEFORE A
NATURAL HAZARD
STRIKES
ANY COMMUNITY CAN
INCREASE ITS STATE-OF-
MONITORING AND
MESSAGING ON THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF ANY NATURAL
HAZARD
THE STATE-OF-MONITORING
AND MESSAGING IN “THE
MOMENT” INCREASES AS A
COMMUNITY’S CAPABILITY TO
UNDERSTAND
WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN
INCREASES
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH
EVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR
SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW
BEMEFIT/COST FOR
PROTECTING PROPERTY
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT
OF HARM’S WAY
EXAMPLE 1: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• HURRICANE “IKE”
FROM THE ISS:
“IN THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 2: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• CHILE: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 3: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• INDONESIA
TSUNAMI: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 4: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• MEMPHIS, TN
(USA) FLOOD
THREAT: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC PRE-
PAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 5: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• AUSTRALIA
2006’S CYCLONE
TRACKS: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 6: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• AUSTRALIA
CYCLONE HAMISH:
“IN THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 7: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• ATLANTIC BASIN
2012’s STORM
TRACKS: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 8: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• PADANG, INDO-
NESIA FLOODING:
“IN THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION AND/OR
SITE-SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 9: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• BRISBANE AUS-
TRALIA FLOODING:
“IN THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION
AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC
PREPAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 10: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• MYANMAR CYCLONE
NARGIS: “IN THE
MOMENT” EARLY
WARNING FAILED;
NO EVACUATION
AND NO SITE-
SPECIFIC PREP-
AREDNESS
EXAMPLE 11: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• MYANMAR CY-
CLONE NARGIS:
“AFTER THE
MOMENT” EVAC-
UATION OF THE
HOMELESS SUR-
VIVORS
EXAMPLE 12: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• MYANMAR CYCLONE
NARGIS: “AFTERTHE MOMENT”
EVACUATION OF
SURVIVORS IN “RED
ZONE.”
EXAMPLE 13: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• AMERICAN SAMOA
TSUNAMI: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
SURVIVORS IN “RED
ZONE”AND/OR SITE-
SPECIFIC PREP-
AREDNESS
EXAMPLE 14: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• CHILE 2012 TSUNAMI
TRAVEL PATH: “IN
THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
PEOPLE IN “RED
ZONES”AND/OR
SITE-SPECIFIC PRE-
PAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 15: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• NIGERIA 2012
FLOOD: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
PEOPLE IN “RED
ZONE.”
EXAMPLE 16: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• NORTH DAKOTA
(USA) FLOOD: “IN
THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
“RED ZONE” SITE-
SPECIFIC PREP-
AREDNESS (SAND
BAG PREPARATION)
EXAMPLE 17: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• CORPUS CHRISTI, TX
(USA) TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY: “IN
THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
“RED ZONE” SITE-
SPECIFIC PRE-
PAREDNESS
EXAMPLE 18: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• NORTH CAROLINA
(USA) HURRICANE
EARL: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION FROM
OUTER BANKS
EXAMPLE 19: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• 2009’s TYPHOON
KETSANA: “IN THE
MOMENT” FACIL-
ITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
PEOPLE IN “RED
ZONE” TO A GYMN
EXAMPLE 20: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• ATHENS GREECE
2009’s WILDFIRE:“IN
THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
PEOPLE IN THE
“RED ZONE.
EXAMPLE 22: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• JAPAN 2011’S
TSUNAMI:“IN THE
MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
PEOPLE IN THE
“RED ZONE WAS
ONLY 45 MINUTES
LONG.
EXAMPLE 21: A NEED FOR
EARLY WARNING
• MEXICO 2013’s
HURRICANE MANUEL:
“IN THE MOMENT”
FACILITATION OF
EVACUATION OF
TOURISTS.
CONCLUSION
With Today’s Books of
Knowledge, Innovative Capacity
Building to
Improve Early Warning for
Floods, Hurricanes, Typhoons, Volc
anic Eruptions, and Wildfires is
possible.