part iii: tools for risk assessment radius tool - simple damage estimation software - dr. carlos...
TRANSCRIPT
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Part III: Tools for Risk Assessment
RADIUS Tool- Simple Damage Estimation Software -
Dr. Carlos Villacis
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Software Purposes• To facilitate preliminary estimation of
earthquake damage in developing countries
• To be used by city administrators and general public, not for professional purposes
• To assist in decision making
• To raise awareness of
earthquake risk
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Software CharacteristicsGoal: To make it as useful and accesible as possible
• Widely available platform (runs on MS-Excel)
• Simple, user-friendly– Help Function/User Instructions are included– Narrated Demonstration Video is included
• NOT a GIS(Geographic Information System) type of program– A GIS Sample is added for comparison (GIS is a very useful risk-
assessment tool)
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Input Data
Program uses commonly available city information
• Shape of target region (entered as a grid)• Population and its distribution• Building Inventory and its distribution• Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions) • Lifelines information• Choice of Scenario Earthquake and its parameters
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Output
• Ground Shaking Distribution (PGA or MMI Intensity)
• Building damage
• Lifelines damage
• Human Impact (number of deaths and injuries)
• Summary Tables and Thematic Maps showing the results
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Example of Data Input Process• Shape of target region input as a grid
Example for Kobe city
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Example of Data Input Process• Specify the City Area using Excel Mesh• Input Total Population and Building Counts
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Example of Data Input Process• Input Area ID and Area Name
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Example of Data Input ProcessSpecify the Mesh Weight (building, population distribution)
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Example of Data Input Process• Input Mesh Weight to distribute the building and
population count
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Example of Data Input Process• Specify Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions)
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Example of Data Input Process• Input Local Soil Characteristics
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Example of Data Input Process• Specify Building Inventory by Area• Percentage of 10 Building Classes in each Area
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Example of Data Input Process• Input Building Inventory by Area• Buildings and Population are distributed by Mesh Weight
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Example of Data Input Process• Specify and Enter Scenario Earthquake
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Output Examples• Building Damage Distribution
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Tool Applications
• Understanding of cities’ earthquake risks • Estimation of impact of past well-known
earthquakes• Estimation of impact of any number of
possible future earthquakes• Delineation of planning policies by decision
makers• Education and risk awareness of the public
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Incorporating DRM in Urban Planning
Tijuana
Antofagasta
Katmandú
Dehradun
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Working with local organizations
Training to Kathmandu City officers
Public seminar in Antofagasta to discuss project findings
Working session with Tijuana planners
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Results
2003 2007
2012 2022
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Developing solutions…
2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 6 6 7 7
1 1 1 1 1 6 6 7 7 7
1 1 1 7 7 7 8
1 1 7 8 8 8
8 8 9
9 9
9
9
CRÍTICO
ALTA MEDIA BAJA LEVEL RISK - Antofagasta -Chile
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Tangible Products
Seismic scenarios
Development plans
Local Capacity Building
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Tangible Products
Mitigation Options
Mitigation Option 4
Mitigation Option 3
Mitigation Option 2
Mitigation Option 1
Risk Reduction Potential
30% 60% 90%
Cost= $
Cost= $$$
Cost= $$
Cost= $$
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Tangible Products
Reducción de Riesgo
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Años
Mile
s d
e P
ers
on
as e
n R
iesg
o
a
b
c
d
e
Curve e = Investing $15 Mill. in 25 years
Investing to reduce Tijuana’s risk
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END
Thank you for your Attention.