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Guide to the En-ROADS Control Panel

COAL

Discourage or encourage mining coal and burning it in power plants. Coal is the most harmful fossil fuel in terms of carbon emissions as well as in air pollutants that cause severe health impacts. However, it is a dominant source of energy globally because it is relatively cheap to mine and transport.

Real World Examples

• Government policies that phase out power plants or make them more expensive in any way, such as taxes on coal

• Financial services industry (e.g. banks) or global development institutions (e.g. World Bank) limiting access to capital for expansion

Slider Settings A setting of “taxed” applies a cost of 10-30% ($10-$30 per ton of coal equivalent (tce)) starting in 2020 and phased in over ten years. “Highly taxed” is a range of 30%-60% ($30-$60/tce). “Very highly taxed” is 60%-100% ($60-100/tce). Model Structure Notes The cost affects three significant decisions regarding energy infrastructure: capacity investments (whether or not to build new processing and power plants), capacity utilization (whether to run existing plants), and capacity retirement (whether to keep plants longer or shorter than the average of ~30 years).

OIL

Discourage or encourage drilling, refining, and consuming oil for energy. Oil is a fossil fuel that is used widely in cars, ships, and planes; it is also used for industry, heating, and electricity.

Real World Examples

• Governments imposing limits to off shore or public land drilling and exploration, removing subsidies, and taxing oil

• Universities, corporations, and individuals divesting • Financial services industry (e.g., banks) or global development institutions (e.g.,

World Bank) limiting access to capital for expansion

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Slider Settings A setting of “taxed” applies a cost of 10-30% ($10-$30 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe)) starting in 2020 and phased in over ten years. “Highly taxed” is a range of 30%-60% ($30-$60/boe). “Very highly taxed” is 60%-100% ($60-100/boe). Model Structure Notes The cost affects three significant decisions regarding energy infrastructure: capacity investments (whether or not to build new drilling operations and refineries), capacity utilization (whether to run existing operations), and capacity retirement (whether to keep infrastructure longer or shorter than the average of ~30 years).

GAS

Discourage or encourage drilling and burning natural gas for energy. Natural Gas is a fossil fuel that is used for electricity, heating, and industry. When burned it releases carbon dioxide (although less than coal and oil) and, if leaked into the air, it contains high amounts of methane.

Real World Examples

• Governments implementing laws against fracking and taxes on natural gas • Financial services industry (e.g., banks) or global development institutions (e.g.,

World Bank) limiting access to capital for expansion Slider Settings A setting of “taxed” applies a cost of 10-30% ($0.60-$2.00 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf)) starting in 2020 and phased in over ten years. “Highly taxed” is a range of 30%-60% ($2.00-$4.00/Mcf). “Very highly taxed” is 60%-100% ($4.00-6.00/Mcf). Model Structure Notes The cost affects three significant decisions regarding energy infrastructure: capacity investments (whether or not to build new processing and power plants), capacity utilization (whether to run existing plants), and capacity retirement (whether to keep plants longer or shorter than the average of ~30 years).

RENEWABLES

Encourage or discourage building solar panels and wind turbines. Renewable energy includes wind and solar technologies, which produce energy with little to no carbon dioxide emissions.

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Real World Examples

• Governments offering tax incentives to families installing solar panels on their roofs and farmers and land owners allowing the installment of wind turbines on their land

• Research and development for improvements to renewable energy technologies, in order to improve efficiencies and/or reduce costs

• Businesses committing to powering themselves with 100% renewable energy • Non-governmental organizations educating citizens about renewable energy and

supporting the implementation of new laws Slider Settings Moving the lever to “subsidized” decreases the cost of renewables 10-30% ($0.01-$0.05 per kilowatt hour (kWh)) over ten years. “Highly subsidized” is 30-60% ($0.05-$1.00/kWh). Model Structure Notes This sector tracks several stages of wind and solar installations, or “renewable energy supply capacity” – capacity under development, under construction, and actually producing energy, including delays between each stage.

The most important feedback loops in the renewables sector include:

1. Overheating - costs go up when the industry grows faster than the manufacturing and support industries can keep up

2. Site availability – costs go up when renewables are sited in less optimal locations (e.g., solar power in Sweden instead of Italy)

3. Learning effect – every doubling of cumulative production will bring costs down 20% (aka, the progress ratio)

4. Complementary assets – costs come down as supply chains, business models, and production industries grow

BIOENERGY

Discourage or encourage the use of trees, forest waste and agricultural crops to create energy. Bioenergy is energy produced from the burning, or combustion, of living organic material such as wood, algae, or agricultural crops. There are a variety of bioenergy sources, some of which can be sustainable and others which can be worse than burning coal.

Real World Examples

• Government incentives and/or targets to convert land into growing biofuel feedstocks

• Research, development, and investment into new technologies that can produce new forms of biofuels, and vehicles and industry that can use/support these biofuels

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Slider Settings A setting of “taxed” applies a cost of 10-30% ($5.00-$15.00 per barrel oil equivalent (boe)) starting in 2020 and phased in over ten years. “Highly taxed” is a range of 30%-60% ($15.00-$30.00/boe). “Subsidized” reduces the cost by 10%-30% ($5.00-$15.00/boe). Model Structure Notes This sector tracks several stages of bioenergy installations, or “energy supply capacity” – capacity under development, under construction, and actually producing energy, including delays between each stage.

NUCLEAR

Encourage or discourage building nuclear power plants. Nuclear power production does not release carbon dioxide, but produces nuclear waste that can be harmful if not stored safely.

Real World Examples

• Government policy aimed at handling nuclear waste and reducing costs of nuclear power

• Corporate efforts to sell nuclear power plants • Public information campaign to reduce public fear of risks of nuclear power and

revive nuclear industry Slider Settings Moving the lever to “subsidized” setting decreases the cost of nuclear power 10-30% ($0.01-$0.05 per Kilowatt hour (kWh)) over ten years. “Highly subsidized” is 30-60% ($0.05-$.08/kWh). Model Structure Notes This sector tracks several stages of nuclear power plants, or “energy supply capacity” – capacity under development, under construction, and actually producing energy, including delays between each stage.

NEW TECHNOLOGY

Discover a brand new, cheap source of electricity that does not produce carbon dioxide. This imagined new technology would then scale rapidly and be available worldwide. Some speculate that we could see a breakthrough like this in cold fusion or thorium-based nuclear

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fission, although there would still be many challenges after the initial breakthrough to lowering costs, expanding production, and scaling up deployment.

Real World Examples

• Research and development into new technologies such as thorium fission or cold fusion

• Government and/or corporate investments into new technologies

Slider Settings A setting of “Breakthrough” introduces the “New Technology” in 2020 at the same price as coal. “Huge Breakthrough” drops the price to half the price of coal. Model Structure Notes The path to deployment includes several delays after the success of the technology in the laboratory: commercialization (set at 10 years, roughly the same time as Uranium-based fission), planning (2 years) and construction (5 years). Then the energy source competes with long-lived (average 30 year lifetime) gas and coal powerplants.

CARBON PRICE

Set a global carbon price that makes coal, oil, and gas more expensive depending on how much carbon dioxide they release. Energy producers frequently pass additional costs to their customers, so policy must be designed to minimize the impacts on the poorest.

Real World Examples

• Different levels of government implementing carbon pricing • Joint carbon pricing efforts or regional partnerships to expand coverage • Grassroots campaigns generating public support for carbon pricing

Slider Settings Carbon Price can be set between $0 and $250 per ton.

Model Structure Notes There are two areas of structure and behavior to explore: 1) on the fuel mix and carbon intensity of the global economy as the tax discourages investment in coal, oil, and gas (but disproportionately the higher carbon-density coal) and 2) on energy demand and the overall energy intensity of the global economy as the tax increases energy prices, suppressing demand.

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TRANSPORT – ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Increase or decrease the energy efficiency of vehicles, shipping, air travel, and transportation systems. Energy efficiency includes things like hybrid cars, expanded public transport, and ways that people can get around using less energy. Adopting more energy efficient practices can also help people’s health by increased fitness from walking or stronger community from sharing rides. It can also save money.

Real World Examples

• Individuals changing their personal behavior to increase walking, biking, using public transit, carpooling, living in higher density neighborhoods, purchasing more efficient vehicles, reducing flying, telecommuting, and/or buying local

• Public or corporate policies such as increasing parking prices, investing in public transit, offering tax breaks for efficient vehicles, rewarding carpooling, building bike lanes, creating high density pedestrian friendly urban areas, and/or performance standards that mandate average miles/gallon sales

• Research and development into high efficiency technologies for shipping, vehicles, and air travel

Slider Settings The energy intensity of new transportation infrastructure (cars, trucks, busses, airplanes, public transportation systems, roads, housing development) is currently improving at 0.5% per year, due to technological improvements and shifts toward urbanization. Selecting “increased” moves the rate of improvement up 2-5% per year. “Highly increased” is 5-7% per year. Model Structure Notes The slider moves the improvement rate of new vehicles and other infrastructure. But energy use is driven by the overall average of all capital in this area, which is delayed from this intervention due to the relatively long lifetime of capital. The model structure that tracks overall efficiency also includes retrofitting of existing capital up toward the energy intensity of new capital.

TRANSPORT – ELECTRIFICATION

Increase or decrease purchases of new electric cars, trucks, buses, trains, and ships. Using electric motors for transport only helps reduce emissions if the electricity is from low carbon sources like solar and wind.

Real World Examples

• Public interest campaigns and support of electric vehicles

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• Investments into charging infrastructure • Research and development into the technologies for vehicles, batteries, and

charging • Corporate commitment to sales of electric vehicles

Slider Settings This slider changes the annual growth rate of the share of transportation energy that comes from electricity. Moving the slider to “Incentivized” increases the electrification rate to 1-3% per year. “Highly incentivized” increases the rate to 3-5% per year. Model Structure Notes Unlike the inputs for energy sources, which change the financial attractiveness to drive future behavior, this input directly forces growth of electrification up toward a maximum percentage.

This input affects climate outcomes through two pathways – 1) Changing energy demand. The “well-to-wheel” efficiency for electrified transport is greater than for the use of internal combustion engines – less energy is used when fuels such as coal and gas are burned in a powerplant and delivered to drive vehicle motion through wires and batteries. Additionally, changes in demand for electricity increase or decrease prices of electricity, affecting overall energy demand. And 2) Changing fuel mix. Increased electrification decreases use of oil and increases use of coal, natural gas, and renewables in electricity generation.

BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRY – ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Increase or decrease the energy efficiency of buildings, appliances, motors, and other machines. Energy efficiency includes things like building well-insulated homes and reducing the amount of energy factories use. In many cases energy efficient practices can be adopted which save money in the long run through reduced energy needs.

Real World Examples

• Individuals and businesses changing their behavior to insulate buildings, purchase energy efficient technologies (motors, lighting, appliances, servers, HVAC systems), conserve energy

• Government policies, such as tax breaks, performance standards, and investments into R&D, to incentivize such behavior change

• Research and development into high efficiency technologies

Slider Settings The energy intensity of new building and industry infrastructure is currently improving at 1.2% per year, due to technological improvements and shifts of the economy from

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manufacturing to service. Selecting “increased” moves the rate of improvement up to 2-5% per year. “Highly increased” moves the rate up to 5-7% per year. Model Structure Notes The slider moves the improvement rate of new technology and infrastructure. But energy use is driven by the overall average of all capital in this area, which is delayed from this intervention due to the relatively long lifetime of capital. The model structure that tracks overall efficiency also includes retrofitting of existing capital up toward the energy intensity of new capital.

BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRY – ELECTRIFICATION

Increase or decrease the use of electricity in buildings, appliances, motors, and other machines, instead of fuels like oil or gas. Using electric motors only helps reduce emissions if the electricity is from low carbon sources like solar and wind.

Real World Examples

• Increase in public interest and support of replacing coal, oil, and gas fired technologies in buildings and factories with electricity powered technologies

• Greater investment in electric grid infrastructure • Research and development into various technologies such as batteries • Corporate commitment to electrification

Slider Settings This slider changes the annual growth rate of the share of building and industry energy that comes from electricity. Moving the slider to “incentivized” increases the electrification rate to 1-3% per year. “Highly incentivized” increases the rate to 3-5% per year. Model Structure Notes Unlike the inputs for energy sources, which change the financial attractiveness to drive future behavior, this input directly forces growth of electrification up toward a maximum percentage.

This input affects climate outcomes through two pathways – 1) Changing energy demand. The efficiency for electrified energy use is greater than for the direct burning of coal, oil, and gas. Additionally, changes in demand for electricity increase or decrease prices of electricity, affecting overall energy demand. And 2) Changing fuel mix. Increased electrification decreases use of oil and increases use of coal, natural gas, and renewables in electricity generation.

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POPULATION GROWTH

Assume higher or lower population growth. Population is a key driver of increased greenhouse gases. However, this is also tied heavily to consumption habits. Through women’s education and access to family planning there could be accelerated shifts to smaller families worldwide.

Real World Examples

• Different assumptions for future fertility rates and demographics • Greater empowerment of women and girls, resulting in lower fertility rates • Increased education on and access to reproductive health services

Slider Settings The “status quo” setting is the “Medium” UN Population Growth scenario, where global population reaches 11.1 billion by 2100. Selecting the extreme of “low growth” is 60% of the way in-between the “Low” and “Medium” scenarios, peaking in 2070 at 9.7 billion and falling to 9.6 billion by 2100. Selecting the upper end of “high growth” selects the scenario 40% of the way in-between the UN “Medium” and “High” scenarios, growing throughout the century up to 13.3 billion. Model Structure Notes Population gets multiplied with GDP per capita (the slider below) to equal total global GDP, or Gross World Product.

ECONOMIC GROWTH

Assume higher or lower growth in goods produced and services provided. Economic Growth is measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person and is a key driver in energy consumption. Alternatives exist to meeting people’s needs through economic frameworks not based on constant GDP growth.

Real World Examples

• Different assumptions about the future behaviors of economies • Global efforts to reduce overconsumption and embrace voluntary simplicity • Possible impacts on economic growth from the effects of climate change

Slider Settings In the “status quo” setting, GDP/capita grows at 2.7% per year. The low end is 1.7% per year and the high end is 3.7% per year.

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Model Structure Notes Whereas, in the real world, there would be feedbacks to economic growth from energy prices, various taxes, and the impacts of climate change, the model does not include these effects. The user could explore such feedbacks by changing this input manually.

DEFORESTATION

Decrease or increase the loss of forests for agricultural and urban development. Deforestation often entails burning and removing forests to clear land for crops like soybeans, corn, or palm oil and to accommodate expanding cities.

Real World Examples

• Government policy to preserve forested land and place restrictions on industries such as soybean and/or palm oil

• Increased support for indigenous land rights • Public support and campaigns to support land preservation

Slider Settings This lever changes the reduction of emissions relative to the “Business as Usual” scenario, where 100% is the maximum emissions that could be added by deforestation and -100% is the maximum emissions could be reduced. Model Structure Notes Emissions from this area are already expected to decrease significantly over the century as there are fewer and fewer forests that could be burned and converted to agriculture.

METHANE & OTHER

Decrease or increase emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and HFCs from cows, agriculture, industry, and landfills. Other greenhouse gases, beyond carbon dioxide, contribute to climate change. Methane is released from sources like cows, agriculture, natural gas drilling, and waste. Nitrous oxide comes from fertilizers. The f-gases, includes HFCs, PFCs, and others that are used in industry and consumer goods like air conditioners.

Real World Examples

• Decreased meat consumption • Modified agricultural practices such as increasing digestion of manure and

decreasing fertilizer use • Decreased leakage from oil and gas industries • Increased capturing of gases emitted from landfills

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• Research and development on how to replace f-gases (e.g. SF6 and HFC) in industrial processes

Slider Settings This lever changes the reduction of emissions relative to the “Business as Usual” scenario, where -100% is the maximum emissions could be reduced and 50% is the maximum they could be increased. Model Structure Notes The model does not allow emissions to be reduced close to zero; much of the emissions are considered unavoidable, particularly those from agriculture, landfills, wastewater, and some oil and gas operations.

AFFORESTATION

Plant new forests and restore old forests. As trees grow they draw carbon out of the air, which reduces the concentration of carbon dioxide. However, without care large-scale afforestation can compromise biodiversity and historical land rights.

Real World Examples

• Government policies, incentives, and funding to identify available land, plant trees, and manage forests

• Business, land owner, and public support for such policies • Agricultural industry support for growing trees as a crop

Slider Settings This lever changes CO2 removal from Afforestation relative to the “Business as Usual” scenario, where 100% is the maximum emissions could be removed and 0% is no change. Model Structure Notes The input changes total or gross removal from trees and plants through photosynthesis. However, the net removal is much lower and changing over time due to several modeled processes: the ramp-up time when expanding forests globally, the return of removed CO2 to the atmosphere as forests age, and the different rates of removal as forests move through stages of growth. One example – a maximum gross removal rate of 10 gigatons CO2 per year translates into net removal of approximately 6.

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TECHNOLOGICAL CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL

Pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere with new technologies that enhance natural carbon removals or chemically draw carbon from the air and store it. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies include direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), mineralization, biochar, and others. These approaches could remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, however, none of them are being used yet at large scales, and many face significant barriers to deployment.

Real World Examples

• Advancements in various CDR technologies through research and development and government policies

• Support from businesses, land owners, and general public to implement such technologies

Slider Settings This lever changes gross CO2 removal relative to the “Business as Usual” scenario, where 100% is the maximum emissions could be removed and 0% is no change. The maximum corresponds to 10 gigatons CO2/year gross, or 6 net at its peak over time. Model Structure Notes The five methods of CO2 removal in this sector are modeled independently; their dynamics differ because of their different features. They all vary in maximum sequestration, potential start year, phase in time, and annual percent “loss” or re-emission (gases leak over time from underground storage or soils).

The resulting maximum gross removals are:

• Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) – 5 gtons CO2/year • Biochar – 5 gtons CO2/year • Agricultural soil carbon – 3 gtons CO2/year • Direct Air Capture – 7 gtons CO2/year • Mineralization – 5 gtons CO2/year

En-ROADS Control Panel

Discourage or encourage mining coal and burning it in power plants.

Encourage or discourage building solar panels and wind turbines.

Increase or decrease the energy efficiency of vehicles, shipping, air travel, and transportation systems.

Increase or decrease purchases of new electric cars, trucks, buses, trains, and ships.

Decrease or increase the loss of forests for agricultural and urban development.

Decrease or increase greenhouse gas emissions from methane, nitrous oxide, and the f-gases.

Assume higher or lower population growth.

Plant new forests and restore old forests.

Pull carbon dioxide out of the air with new technologies that enhance natural removals or manually sequester and store carbon.

Discourage or encourage the use of trees, forest waste and agricultural crops to create energy.

Set a global carbon price that makes coal, oil, and gas more expensive depending on how much carbon dioxide they release.

Discourage or encourage drilling, refining, and consuming oil for energy.

Encourage or discourage building nuclear power plants.

Increase or decrease the energy efficiency of buildings, appliances, appliances, and other machines.

Discourage or encourage drilling and burning natural gas for energy.

Discover a brand new, cheap source of electricity that does not emit greenhouse gases.

Increase or decrease the use of electricity in buildings, appliances, motors, and other machines, instead of fuels like oil or gas.

Assume higher or lower growth in goods produced and services provided.

Coal Renewables

Oil Nuclear

TransportEnergy Efficiency

TransportElectrification

Buildings and IndustryEnergy Efficiency

Methane & Other Gases

Deforestation

Gas

Bioenergy

New Technology

Carbon Price

Buildings and IndustryElectrification

Population

Afforestation

Technological Carbon Removal

Economic Growth