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The information contained in this document reflects, as of the date of publication, the views of Munro Partners and sources believed by MunroPartners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in these materials will be realised. The viewsexpressed in this document may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue.
Grant Samuel Fund Services Limited ABN 48 129 256 104 AFSL 321517 (Grant Samuel Fund Services) is the responsible entity of the Munro GlobalGrowth Fund ARSN 612 854 547 (Fund) and is the issuer of this information. This information has been prepared without taking account of theobjectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision in relation to the Fund, investors should consider theappropriateness of this information, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and read and consider the productdisclosure statement for the Fund dated 1 March 2018 (PDS) which may be obtained from www.gsfm.com.au, www.munropartners.com.au/accessor by calling (02) 8188 1510.
Past performance information given in this document is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) anindication of future performance. None of Grant Samuel Fund Services, Munro Partners, its related bodies or associates nor any other personguarantees the repayment of capital or the performance of the Fund or any particular returns from the Fund. No representation or warranty ismade concerning the accuracy of any data contained in this document. This document is issued on 19 November 2018. You should consider the PDSin its entirety before making a decision to acquire or continue to hold an interest in the Munro Global Growth Fund.
DISCLAIMER
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AMAZON ‐ $800BN MARKET CAP BUT STILL GROWING
E‐commerce Cloud Computing
Amazon – Dominant in E‐Commerce and Cloud Computing Munro Partners – 5 Qualitative tests for a great growth company
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Source: Bloomberg
FRAMING THE GROWTH RUNWAY… THE LESSONS FROM APPLE
0%
10%
20%
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40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Market S
hare
(units m
)
Global Mobile Phone Market Global Smartphones Smartphone Market Share
Global Mobile Phone Unit Shipments (LHS) and Smartphone Market Share (RHS)
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Source: Statista
GROWTH ‐ AMAZON IS AT THE START OF TWO GROWTH RUNWAYS…
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Market S
hare
(USD
m)
US Retail Sales and US E‐commerce Spend (LHS), US E‐commerce share of Retail (RHS)
US E‐commerce Spend Total US Retail Sales US E‐commerce Share of Retail
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
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250,000
Market S
hare
(USD
m)
Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Spending as a portion of total Enterprise Infrastructure spending (LHS), and IaaS
share (RHS)
Infrastructure as a Service Infrastructure Market IaaS Share of Infrastructure
E‐Commerce Cloud Computing
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LEVERAGE ‐ IN ECOMMERCE IS AMAZON PRIME…
Source: MS & Munro Partners Estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
(m)
46% CAGR
1,471
547
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
Prime Non‐Prime
(USD
spen
t)
Ontario Distribution Centre Prime Members
Amazon Distribution Centres Globally In Q3 2018 prime members spent 2.7x more than non‐prime members
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Source: Goldman Sachs
LEVERAGE – IN THE CLOUD AMAZON IS ALSO TAKING SHARE
39%42%
46%
51%
6%
14%
18%
24%
2%
4%
6%
8%
3%
5%
9%
11%
50%
36%
21%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 2017 2018 2019(USD
bn)
AWS Azure Alibaba Google Others
Amazon Distribution Centres – 109 globally Public Cloud Market Share
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SUSTAINABILITY ‐ THE SHIFT TO E‐COMMERCE AND THE CLOUD SHOULD CONTINUE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Market S
hare
(USD
m)
IaaS Spending as a portion of total Infrastructure (LHS) and IaaS Share (RHS)
Infrastructure as a Service Infrastructure Market IaaS Share of Infrastructure
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
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6,000,000
7,000,000
Market S
hare
(USD
m)
US Retail Sales and US E‐Commerce Spend (LHS) and US E‐commerce Share of Retail Sales
US E‐commerce Spend Total US Retail Sales US E‐commerce Share of Retail
Source: MS, Bloomberg & Munro Partners Estimates
E‐Commerce Cloud Computing
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CONTROL AND CUSTOMER PERCEPTION
2018 Net worth = $147bn Age: 54
1998 Net worth = $1.6bn Age: 34
20 years in the making but still looking long term ‘To be Earths most consumer centric company’
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IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT? ‐ FOCUSING ON THE P/E RATIO HAS NOT HELPED INVESTORS
0
20
40
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80
100
120
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Forw
ard P/E Multip
le
Share Price
Share Price BF P/E RatioSource: Bloomberg
Munro Partners – 5 Qualitative tests for a great growth company Amazon Share Price (LHS) and Blended Forward P/E (RHS)
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IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT? – FOCUSING ON CASH FLOW HAS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
(EBITD
A, m
)
Share Price
Share Price Forward Ebitda
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Forw
ard EB
ITDA
Multip
le
Share Price
Share Price Forward EV/EbitdaSource: Bloomberg
Amazon Share Price (LHS) and Forward EBITDA (RHS) Amazon Share Price (LHS) and Forward EBITDA Multiple (RHS)
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IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT? – RUNNING THROUGH THE MATHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Adj. EB
IT M
argin
(USD
m)
Amazon Retail Revenue (LHS) and Adj. EBIT Margin (RHS)
Amazon Revenue (USD m) Adj. EBIT Margin
2025 Retail Revenue 554bn
2018 Retail Revenue 209bn
2018 Retail Adj. EBIT Margin 5%
2025 Retail Adj. EBIT Margin 9%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Adj. EB
IT M
argin
(USD
m)
AWS Revenue (LHS) and Adj. EBIT Margin (RHS)
AWS Revenue (m) AWS Adj. EBIT Margin
2025 AWS Revenue 100bn
2018 AWS Revenue 25bn
2018 AWS Adj. EBIT Margin 36%
2025 AWS Adj. EBIT Margin 42%
Source: Bloomberg & Munro Partners Estimates
E‐Commerce Cloud Computing
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.
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IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT – PRICE TARGET
Today:
2019 Consensus EBITDA 42bn * 20x multiple= 840bn EV
Price Target:
2025 EBITDA 131bn * 17.5x multiple = 2,300bn EV
Time Horizon: 6 years CAGR: 21% p.a.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2018 2025E 2030E
(USD
bn)
Revenue = $209bnEBITDA Margin = 16%
Revenue = $554bnEBITDA Margin = 20%
?
Source: Bloomberg & Munro Partners estimates
Amazon EBITDA Projection Price Target
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in these materials will be realised.
“We believe that a fundamental measure of our success will be the shareholder value we create over the long term. This value will be a direct result of our ability to extend and solidify our current market leadership position. The stronger our market leadership, the more powerful our economic model.” Jeff Bezos, Shareholder Letter 1997
Munro PartnersLevel 1980 Collins StreetMelbourne VIC 3000+ 61 3 9290 [email protected]
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