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Page 1: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast
Page 2: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

2

The information contained in this document reflects, as of the date of publication, the views of Munro Partners and sources believed by MunroPartners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in these materials will be realised. The viewsexpressed in this document may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue.

Grant Samuel Fund Services Limited ABN 48 129 256 104 AFSL 321517 (Grant Samuel Fund Services) is the responsible entity of the Munro GlobalGrowth Fund ARSN 612 854 547 (Fund) and is the issuer of this information. This information has been prepared without taking account of theobjectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision in relation to the Fund, investors should consider theappropriateness of this information, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and read and consider the productdisclosure statement for the Fund dated 1 March 2018 (PDS) which may be obtained from www.gsfm.com.au, www.munropartners.com.au/accessor by calling (02) 8188 1510.

Past performance information given in this document is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) anindication of future performance. None of Grant Samuel Fund Services, Munro Partners, its related bodies or associates nor any other personguarantees the repayment of capital or the performance of the Fund or any particular returns from the Fund. No representation or warranty ismade concerning the accuracy of any data contained in this document. This document is issued on 19 November 2018. You should consider the PDSin its entirety before making a decision to acquire or continue to hold an interest in the Munro Global Growth Fund.

DISCLAIMER

Page 3: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

3

AMAZON ‐ $800BN MARKET CAP BUT STILL GROWING

E‐commerce Cloud Computing

Amazon – Dominant in E‐Commerce and Cloud Computing Munro Partners – 5 Qualitative tests for a great growth company

Page 4: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

4

Source: Bloomberg

FRAMING THE GROWTH RUNWAY… THE LESSONS FROM APPLE 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Market S

hare

(units m

)

Global Mobile Phone Market Global Smartphones Smartphone Market Share

Global Mobile Phone Unit Shipments (LHS) and Smartphone Market Share (RHS)

Page 5: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

5

Source: Statista

GROWTH ‐ AMAZON IS AT THE START OF TWO GROWTH RUNWAYS…

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Market S

hare

(USD

 m)

US Retail Sales and US E‐commerce Spend (LHS), US E‐commerce share of Retail (RHS) 

US E‐commerce Spend Total US Retail Sales US E‐commerce Share of Retail

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Market S

hare

(USD

 m)

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Spending as a portion of total Enterprise Infrastructure spending (LHS), and IaaS 

share (RHS)

Infrastructure as a Service Infrastructure Market IaaS Share of Infrastructure

E‐Commerce Cloud Computing

Page 6: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

6

LEVERAGE ‐ IN ECOMMERCE IS AMAZON PRIME…

Source: MS & Munro Partners Estimates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

(m)

46% CAGR

1,471

547

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

Prime Non‐Prime

(USD

 spen

t)

Ontario Distribution Centre Prime Members

Amazon Distribution Centres Globally In Q3 2018 prime members spent 2.7x more than non‐prime members

Page 7: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

7

Source: Goldman Sachs

LEVERAGE – IN THE CLOUD AMAZON IS ALSO TAKING SHARE

39%42%

46%

51%

6%

14%

18%

24%

2%

4%

6%

8%

3%

5%

9%

11%

50%

36%

21%

6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2016 2017 2018 2019(USD

 bn)

AWS Azure Alibaba Google Others

Amazon Distribution Centres – 109 globally Public Cloud Market Share

Page 8: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

8

SUSTAINABILITY ‐ THE SHIFT TO E‐COMMERCE AND THE CLOUD SHOULD CONTINUE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Market S

hare

(USD

 m)

IaaS Spending as a portion of total Infrastructure (LHS) and IaaS Share (RHS)

Infrastructure as a Service Infrastructure Market IaaS Share of Infrastructure

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Market S

hare

(USD

 m)

US Retail Sales and US E‐Commerce Spend (LHS) and US E‐commerce Share of Retail Sales

US E‐commerce Spend Total US Retail Sales US E‐commerce Share of Retail

Source: MS, Bloomberg & Munro Partners Estimates

E‐Commerce Cloud Computing

Page 9: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

9

CONTROL AND CUSTOMER PERCEPTION

2018 Net worth = $147bn Age: 54 

1998 Net worth = $1.6bn  Age: 34

20 years in the making but still looking long term ‘To be Earths most consumer centric company’

Page 10: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

10

IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT? ‐ FOCUSING ON THE P/E RATIO HAS NOT HELPED INVESTORS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Forw

ard P/E Multip

le

Share Price

Share Price BF P/E RatioSource: Bloomberg

Munro Partners – 5 Qualitative tests for a great growth company Amazon Share Price (LHS) and Blended Forward P/E (RHS)

Page 11: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

11

IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT? – FOCUSING ON CASH FLOW HAS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

(EBITD

A, m

)

Share Price

Share Price Forward Ebitda

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Forw

ard EB

ITDA

 Multip

le

Share Price

Share Price Forward EV/EbitdaSource: Bloomberg

Amazon Share Price (LHS) and Forward EBITDA (RHS) Amazon Share Price (LHS) and Forward EBITDA Multiple (RHS)

Page 12: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

12

IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT? – RUNNING THROUGH THE MATHS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Adj. EB

IT M

argin

(USD

 m)

Amazon Retail Revenue (LHS) and Adj. EBIT Margin (RHS)

Amazon Revenue (USD m) Adj. EBIT Margin

2025 Retail Revenue 554bn

2018 Retail Revenue 209bn

2018 Retail Adj. EBIT Margin 5%

2025 Retail Adj. EBIT Margin 9%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Adj. EB

IT M

argin

(USD

 m)

AWS Revenue (LHS) and Adj. EBIT Margin (RHS)

AWS Revenue (m) AWS Adj. EBIT Margin

2025 AWS Revenue 100bn

2018 AWS Revenue 25bn

2018 AWS Adj. EBIT Margin 36%

2025 AWS Adj. EBIT Margin 42%

Source: Bloomberg & Munro Partners Estimates

E‐Commerce Cloud Computing

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.

Jon
Stamp
Page 13: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

13

IS AMAZON A GOOD INVESTMENT – PRICE TARGET

Today:

2019 Consensus EBITDA 42bn * 20x multiple= 840bn EV

Price Target:

2025 EBITDA 131bn * 17.5x multiple = 2,300bn EV

Time Horizon: 6 years CAGR: 21% p.a.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2018 2025E 2030E

(USD

 bn)

Revenue = $209bnEBITDA Margin = 16%

Revenue = $554bnEBITDA Margin = 20%

?

Source: Bloomberg & Munro Partners estimates

Amazon EBITDA Projection Price Target

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in these materials will be realised.

Page 14: Partners to be reliable.munropartners.com.au/.../11/Sohn-Presentation-Amazon_FINAL_20181119.pdf · Partners to be reliable. There can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast

“We believe that a fundamental measure of our success will be the shareholder value we create over the long term. This value will be a direct result of our ability to extend and solidify our current market leadership position. The stronger our market leadership, the more powerful our economic model.” Jeff Bezos, Shareholder Letter 1997

Munro PartnersLevel 1980 Collins StreetMelbourne VIC 3000+ 61 3 9290 [email protected]

THANK‐YOU