partnership for impact event_brussels robinson
DESCRIPTION
"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Sherman Robinson, IFPRI, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.TRANSCRIPT
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Foresight Studies of Global Food Security: Model-Based, Long-Run Scenario Analysis
Sherman Robinson, IFPRI
Dirk Willenbockel, IDS
Partnering for Impact - Brussels, 25 November 2013
IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security
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Long-Run Issues for the Global Food System
• Can we feed a world of 9+ billion people in 2050 and later? • Can we do so sustainably in a world characterized by
increasing effects of climate change?• Many studies, many using “scenario analysis” and long-run
models of the global agricultural system• UK “Foresight Project” led by John Beddington, then UK
Chief Scientific Advisor
-> Upcoming JRC Foresight Global Food Security Study 2014:Assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies
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Five Challenges
A Balancing future agricultural demand and supply sustainably
C Ending Hunger
D Meeting the challenges of a low emissions world
BAddressing the threat of future volatility in the food system
Maintaining biodiversity and ecosys-tem services while feeding the world
EE
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Climate Change: Average temperatures could increase substantially
Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
SRES scenario differences small until after 2050 (but GCM differences big!)
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Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050 CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)
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Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050 MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)
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Conclusions from Scenario Analysis for the Foresight Project and IFPRI Report
• 20th century steady decline in agricultural prices is over• Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of
climate change adaptation• Agricultural productivity research output in hands of
farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience • Open international trade is essential for dealing with
uncertainties and asymmetric shocks• Mitigation is critical
• Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond
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AgMIP: Model Comparison Project
General equilibrium models Partial equilibrium models
AIM NIES GCAM PNNL
ENVISAGE FAO/WB GLOBIOM IIASA
EPPA MIT IMPACT IFPRI
FARM USDA MAgPIE PIK
GTEM ABARES CAPRI IPTS
MAGNET LEI-WUR
10 global economic models focusing on agriculture
Nelson, G.C. et al (2013) Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA (in press)
Special Issue Agricultural Economics 45(1), 2014 (in press)
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Scenario Comparison
• Standardised scenarios and common protocol for reporting• S1: Reference scenario harmonised on SSP2: (1) population growth, (2) real
GDP growth, and (3) agricultural productivity trends, all under “current” climate. • No changes in policy orientation• Not designed to be realistic, but to provide a “benchmark” for model comparisons
• Variations to include uncertainties about major drivers• S2: SSP3 (pessimistic economic and demographic drivers)• S3-S6: Climate Change scenarios (RCP8.5 based on two GCMs and two crop models)• S7-S8: Bioenergy (S7: no 2nd generation biofuels; S8: 2nd generation biofuels)
• Key issues concern the future of agricultural prices, land use, food availability, and international trade
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Reference Scenario: World Market Prices 2050(2005 = 1)
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
AIM ENVISAGE EPPA FARM GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE
Pric
e in
dex (
2005
** =
1)
AGR WHT CGR RIC RUM
** trended 2005, i.e. hypothetical in the absence of short-term shocks
2.2
General Equilibrium Models Partial Equilibrium Models
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Key Findings - Reference Scenario
• Results continue to differ across models, despite significant efforts on harmonization of assumptions about drivers• Ag Price index +40% to -15% relative to global GDP deflator
• Qualitatively similar—20th century declines in prices will not continue in the 21st century• Global crop area +25% to -5%
• Range is narrower than comparisons at the beginning of the project • Comparison process helped to improve models• Some convergence through dialogue across teams• Variability small relative to comparison with past
• Real agricultural price index between 1960s and 2000s: -4% p.a. – Projections to 2050: -0.4% to +0.7% p.a.
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Key Findings - Reference Scenario
• Selected results largely common across models• Global expansion of agricultural production, stronger for
sugar, oilseeds, ruminant meat, weaker for staples like wheat, rice• Strong consumption growth in Africa, Middle-East• Strong production growth in Africa, Latin America• Expanding net import requirements in MENA• Expanding crop exports from North America, Oceania• Expanding meat exports from Brazil
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Climate Change Impacts on Crop Prices(Relative to reference scenario, 2050)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
AIM ENVISAGE FARM GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE CAPRI
% c
hang
e re
lativ
e to
Ref
eren
ce S
cena
rio
S1
S3 S4 S5 S6
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Knowledge Gaps: Priorities for Future Research
• Representation of endogenous technical change in agriculture• How elastic is productivity in response to price changes and R&D?
• Representation of land use change• How elastic is ag land supply? How costly is land conversion?
• Representation of Demand• How elastic is demand in response to income and price changes
• Need for parallel progress in empirical research• Role of continued dialogue across disciplines and modelling teams