pasademographicupdate - wcad

7/25/2019 PasaDemographicUpdate - WCAD

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Waller I.S.D.

Demographic

UpdateMay7,2015


2/49

Population Survey Analysts

W.I.S.D.Demographic

Trends

EmploymentTrends

HousingProjections

Ratios:StudentsperHousehold

ProjectedStudentEnrollment

LongRange

Planning


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4,750

5,250

5,750

6,250

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

3.29%

1.83%3.06%

0.81%3.5%1.75%

1.24%0.52%2.35%

5.77%

Past Growth Rates

Enro

llment


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Square Miles

in

Waller I.S.D.


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Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)

4

th

Week Survey,2010-11

Percent Change

in Student

Enrollment

Fall 2013

toFall 2014

(pre-PEIMS enrol lment estimates)


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Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)

4

th

Week Survey,2010-11

Percent Change

in StudentEnrollment

Fall 2009

toFall 2014

(pre-PEIMS enrol lment estimates)


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Kindergarten Enrollment

vs. Births


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Unique Demographic Characteristics

Waller I.S.D.

Fairly low KN proportion out of total enrollment 7.8% in Fall,2014 (was a higher proport ion in last two school years)

Commute time to work: 35.5 minutes for Waller I.S.D. relative to29.1 for Houston Metro Area and 31.9 for Cy-Fair I.S.D.

Economically Disadvantaged population (64.2%) [relative to59.8% for State] W.I.S.D. will change dramatically in 5 years

High STAAR passage rate (77.8%) --- based on PASAsassessment for grades 3-8 Level II & III (Spring 2014) [relativeto 71.8% for State]

Education of adults ages 25+ -- 16% have bachelors degree(relative to 31% in Houston Metro Area & 38% in Cy-Fair I.S.D.)

High median income level ($61,223) [relative to $57,366 inHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro Area]


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Private Schools

Current

Enrollment

From WISD

in KN+

Enrollment

in 5 yrs.

From WISD

in KN+

Epiphany Lutheran School toddler-8th

185 0 300 0My Private School (formerly

Mackel Private Schoo l) PK-3rd 58 0 65 0

Waller Chr istian Academy PK3-8th 45 26 250 142

Total

26 142

0.45% 2.11%

Current Enrollm entProjected Enrollment

in 5 Years

Grades

% of WISD residents in

private schools:


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W.I.S.D.

Demographic

TrendsEmploymentTrends

HousingProjections

Ratios:Students

per

Household


LongRange

Planning



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Top Employers WithinWaller I.S.D.

Prairie View A&M University 1,426Waller ISD Public Schools 600

Buc-ees Travel Center ~150

Cameron Surface Systems Subsidiary of Cameron 65

Ravago Recycled plastic products 65

Flochem Pipeline additives products 65

Harlan's Grocery Retail grocery 55Green Span Profiles Insulated roof/wall panels for metal buildings 50

Engines, Compressor, & Accessories Large mounted compressors 45

PetroQuip Machine shop 42

Picco Coatings Manufacturing ~40

RP Tools Machine shop ~40

City of Waller Municipal government 30Alpha Foods Co Frozen foods processor and packager 30

Premium Coil Oil and gas supplies ~30

Florida Chemicals Blends industrial cleaning supplies 24

Whitestar Chemicals Drilling pumps 14

LQC Pipe Pipe yard ~12

Company Service/Product Employees


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Annual Employment TrendsDecember June December 6Month Annual

2013 2014 2014 Pct.Change Pct.Change

CityofHouston

Employment 991,811 1,008,388 1,027,955 1.94% 3.64%

UnemploymentRate 5.5 5.5 4.1

HarrisCounty

Employment 2,028,591 2,062,498 2,102,517 1.94% 3.64%


WallerCounty

Employment 19,516 19,842 20,227 1.94% 3.64%



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Wallersbiggestemployer,PrairieViewA&M, has~1,055fulltime

equivalentfacultyand371FTEswhoareinstructors/research/staff and

hasadded

University

View

Campus

apartments

plus

future

retail

Apartfrompublicsector,majornewmanufacturingfirms,plusexisting

firmshaveadditionsandrenovationsunderway(thelattertotallyover

$20,000,000)

1. Daikinsnew

A.C.

manufacturing

plant

with

acentral

structure

of

4million

sq.

ft.on90ac.

2. Alegacy Developmentowns84.8ac.foranewCNGcompressednaturalgas

facilityandpossiblyleasingoutotherspaces S.onUS290

3. TractorSupplyCo. turnedinplansfornewretailcenteroffFM2920

4. PPIMechanicalTestingServicesisaddinginfrastructureonStokesRd.

5. LeasingcompanyhastakenoverBettis Parktosubletspace S.ofBus.290

6. CameronInternationalisalsoaddingspaceS.ofBus.290

7. Picco coatingsisalsoexpandingitsplantonStokesRd.

Waller I.S.D. Employment TrendsEmployment Growth and Critical Employment Centers Both Act

as Local Population Growth Stimuli


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W.I.S.D.DemographicTrends

EmploymentTrends

HousingProjections

Ratios:Students

per

Household


LongRange

Planning



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WallerI.S.D.hashadachallengeintraveltimesfromhometowork

(at35.5

minutes

one

way),

but

the

Grand

Parkway

and

the

newly

greatlywidenedUS290willallowforquickeraccess,incl.the

plannedBauertoFM2920wideningto6lanes;

TheGrandParkway,Secs F1,F2,andGtobecompletedbyearly

2017(and

some

feeder

roads

completed

earlier)

places

W.I.S.D.

on

thecuspofacceleratedresidentialandcommercialgrowth

throughouttheeasternsectoroftheDistrict;

Prairie

Parkway

may

have

the

private

funding

in

place

but

needs

TexDOT fundingforstudies,etc. willhavenorth/southorientation

traversingbetweenPenick andBlinka andthennorthward

overlappingMusePkwyandFluminger andwestwardtoFM1736

nearSH6

Waller I.S.D. Future Transportation TrendsTransportation

and

Other

Infrastructure

Improvements

ActasLocalEconomicDevelopmentStimuli


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WallerI.S.D.hashadachallengeintraveltimesfromhometowork

(at35.5

minutes

one

way),

but

the

Grand

Parkway

and

the

newly

greatlywidenedUS290willallowforquickeraccess,incl.the

plannedBauertoFM2920wideningto6lanes;

TheGrandParkway,Secs F1,F2,andGtobecompletedbyearly

2017(and

some

feeder

roads

completed

earlier)

places

W.I.S.D.

on

thecuspofacceleratedresidentialandcommercialgrowth

throughouttheeasternsectoroftheDistrict;

Prairie

Parkway

may

have

the

private

funding

in

place

but

needs

TexDOT fundingforstudies,etc. willhavenorth/southorientation

traversingbetweenPenick andBlinka andthennorthward

overlappingMusePkwyandFluminger andwestwardtoFM1736

nearSH6

Waller I.S.D. Future Transportation TrendsTransportation

and

Other

Infrastructure

Improvements

ActasLocalEconomicDevelopmentStimuli


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Municipalities

in Waller

I.S.D.


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Utility

Districtsin

Waller I.S.D.

(per Waller CAD, Public

Utilities Commission, and

City of Houston)


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Ownership

Changes

April 2013

through

Oct 2014


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Parcels>10 ac.

For Sale

Nov 2014


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Septic

Permits byPlanning Unit

Jan 2013though

Dec 2014


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# %

Apartments 128 146 18 14% 6%

MHP 412 423 13 3% 5%Subd ivisions -

built-out2,257 2,300 43 2% 15%

Subd ivisions -actively building

1,583 1,797 214 14% 74%

Percent of

Growth

Ad ded Students2013 to 2014

ResidentStudents

in 2014

ResidentStudents

in 2013

Student Growth byType of Housing


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Highest Growth Single-Family Developments

16 Bridgeland (excl. mixed use & MF) 134 1,520 1,654

2C Woodhaven Estates - up to 4,000 lots 178 695 873

16 Stone Creek Ranch 373 440 813

15B, 15C JM Texas Land Fund - 1,600 ac. 138 649 787

15B, 15C Lindsey Story parcels 138 658 796

10B Bauer Rd. Tract (KOWA Dev.) 598 ac. 269 20 289

7G Bauer Landing - 900-950 lots-LGI Homes 247 373 620

8B Franz, McAlister, Burmaster tracts 155 384 539

16 Richfield Ranch 20 355 375

6E Delta Troy Interests 13 185 198

2C Mill Creek Ltd. 22 174 196

9 Gulf Coast Land Trust 14 145 159

15C Gold Star Realty 21 113 134

15BWallers, Freeman, Hillcroft MediStar

parcels - by Parkway7 124 131

1,729 5,835 7,564

2,651 8,291 10,942

Planning

Units

Subdivision Names or

Owner(s) Names:

Total Sing le-Family Housing Projected :

Total (Above-Listed Developments):

2014-

20242019-

2024

2014-

2019


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Highest GrowthMulti-Family Developments

15C Parcels S. Hwy 290 and Betka Rd. 120 240 360

10B Fridkin, Giro, Shamrock Realty parcels 70 200 270

8B Titan Land Dev., Hockley, Martin parcels 20 220 2402C Woodhaven Estates Parcels 0 340 340

6D Terpstra parcels 70 200 270

7C Hegar parcels 0 240 240

280 1,440 1,720450 2,090 2,540

Planning

Units

Multi-Family Development Name or

Parcel Name:

Total M ul ti-Famil y Housing Projected :

Total (Above-Lis ted Developments):

2014-

20242019-

2024

2014-

2019


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Projected

New Housing

Occupancies

January 2015

to

October 2019


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Projected

New Housing

Occupancies

October 2019

to

October 2024


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Projected

New Housing

Occupancies

2015 2024

Year Ending in

October:

Single

Family

Multi-

Family

Total New

Housing

Units

2015 251 0 251

2016 343 3 346

2017 474 73 547

2018 632 153 785

2019 951 221 1,172

2020 1,173 350 1,523

2021 1,454 435 1,8892022 1,747 435 2,182

2023 1,922 435 2,357

2024 1,995 435 2,430

2015-2019 2,651 450 3,101

2019-2024 8,291 2,090 10,381

2015-2024 10,942 2,540 13,482


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W.I.S.D.

Demographic

TrendsEmploymentTrends

HousingProjections

Ratios:Students

per

Household


LongRange

Planning



29/49

Ratios of Studentsper Household

2013 2014

SingleFamily

Homes 0.49 0.52

Apartments 0.41 0.49


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W.I.S.D.DemographicTrends

EmploymentTrends

HousingProjections

Ratios:Students

per

Household


LongRange

Planning



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Moderate GrowthScenario

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Enrollment 6,575 6,919 7,279 7,733 8,323 8,983 9,730 10,507 11,296 12,164

% Growth 5.20 5.23 5.20 6.24 7.63 7.93 8.31 7.99 7.50 7.69

Growth 325 344 360 454 590 660 747 778 788 868

Projected Enrol lment at PEIMS Snapshot


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Three Scenarios of Growth

Enrollment Moderate

Growth2019 8,323

2024 12,164

High Growth2019 8,5772024 13,338

Low Growth

2019 7,9132024 11,097

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

2010 2014 2019 2024

Studen

ts


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Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Fields Store (Capacity = 700)

Students 725 734 763 793 816 854 903 961 1,027 1,094 1,167

% Utilization 104% 105% 109% 113% 117% 122% 129% 137% 147% 156% 167%

Holleman (Capacity = 766)

Students 667 700 719 729 740 758 780 811 846 889 942

% Utilization 87% 91% 94% 95% 97% 99% 102% 106% 110% 116% 123%

Jones (Capacity = 305)Students 395 408 401 414 421 431 440 449 460 468 478

% Utilization 130% 134% 131% 136% 138% 141% 144% 147% 151% 153% 157%

Roberts Road (Capacity = 584)

Students 610 656 723 789 836 916 1,014 1,115 1,230 1,354 1,484

% Utilization 104% 112% 124% 135% 143% 157% 174% 191% 211% 232% 254%

Turlington (Capacity = 800)

Students 756 804 844 902 941 996 1,056 1,124 1,197 1,275 1,354

% Utilization 95% 101% 106% 113% 118% 125% 132% 141% 150% 159% 169%

Projected Resident Elementary Students


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Projected

Resident EE-5th

Grade Students

2014-15

ElementaryAttendance

Zones(Geo-Coded KN-5th for

Schools S of FM 1960)


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Projected

Resident EE-5thGrade Students

Open

Elementary #6in

2017-18(Geo-Coded KN-5th for



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Projected

Resident EE-5thGrade Students

Open

Elementary #7in

2020-21(Geo-Coded KN-5th for



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Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Schultz JH (Capacity = 900)

Students 687 717 760 843 938 1,041 1,130 1,188 1,250 1,334 1,427

% Utilization 76% 80% 84% 94% 104% 116% 126% 132% 139% 148% 159%

Waller JH (Capacity = 900)

Students 698 704 760 835 940 1,047 1,142 1,199 1,271 1,365 1,476

% Utilization 78% 78% 84% 93% 104% 116% 127% 133% 141% 152% 164%

Projected Resident Junior High Students


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Projected

Resident 6th-8thGrade Students

2014-15

Junior HighAttendance

Zones KN-5th for Schools S of

FM 1960)


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Projected

Resident 6th-8thGrade Students

Open

Junior High #3in

2020-21KN-5th for Schools S of

FM 1960)


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Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Waller High School (Capacity = 2,200)Students 1,703 1,846 1,944 1,970 2,101 2,284 2,517 2,885 3,225 3,516 3,833

% Utilization 77% 84% 88% 90% 96% 104% 114% 131% 147% 160% 174%

Projected High School Students


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3master

planned

communities

will

be

well

underway

in

2years

(BauerLanding alreadyunderway andWoodhavenandKOWA

Development;

3moreMPCswillbeunderconstructionin67years JMTexas

LandFunds

1,600

ac.

S.

of

US

290;

Bridgeland;

and

the

FM

2920

Hopfe Cypress/FranztractsN.ontheGrandPkwy.

Nexttojobstabilityandjobgrowth,thesecondmajorfactor

predictinghousingandpopulationaccelerationinaschooldistrictis

theconstruction

of

transportation

arterials

such

as:

US

290s

widening,&theGrandParkway(f1,F2&G)&thePrairieParkway;

ThedemographiccompositionoftheW.I.S.D.studentpopulation

will

change

if

a

large

no.

of

new

students

in

new

subdivisions

becomepartoftheSchoolDistrict; forexample,3newmaster

plannedcommunitiescanchangethesocioeconomiccharacteristics

ofasmallerschooldistrict,suchasWaller,reducingsignificantlythe

free/reducedlunchstudentpopulation&othercharacteristics.

Waller I.S.D. Key Demographic Facts


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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Elem #6

Elem #7JH #3

Jones Replacement?

HS #2

Long Range FacilitiesPlanning Timeline

Ideally, FOUR elementary sites needed as the first four

critical Master Planned Communities begin construction

and have infrastructure in place.


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Waller I.S.D.

DemographicUpdate

May7,

2015

pasademographicupdate - wcad

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