past professional experience - usea.org negative... · past professional experience: associate ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Consultant Virgin Earth Challenge
Past Professional Experience:
Associate The Carbon Trust:
Past Professional Experience:
Noah Deich
Michael Ashcroft [email protected]
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IPCC: Fifth Assessment Report (WG3 -Chapter 6), 2014
“The large majority of scenarios produced in the literature that reach roughly 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 are characterized by concentration overshoot facilitated by the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.”
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1. The Basics
2. The Need 3. The
Approaches 4. The
Implications
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1. The Basics
2. The Need 3. The
Approaches 4. The
Implications
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10 1 Royal Society, 2009
Humans emit a net ~8 B tonnes C (red arrows)
The planet’s ecosystems pull out about half – ~4 B tonnes C – of human emissions (black arrows)
The carbon that the planet doesn’t sequester remains in the atmosphere:
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IPCC, Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis (p. 469)
“The removal of human-emitted CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes will take a few hundred thousand years (high confidence)”
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Carbon emissions are filling the bathtub quickly…
Pre-industrial CO2 levels (~280 ppm)
Today’s CO2 levels (~400 ppm)
Overflow (~450 ppm?)
…and draining slowly
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Reducing emissions is critical…
…as is increasing the capacity of the drain
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1. The Basics
2. The Need 3. The
Approaches 4. The
Implications
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Conservation
Efficiency
Low carbon energy
Carbon dioxide removal
Adaptation
…
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Source: Clare Pinder (The Climate Institute) 17
°
…
…
Carbon Removal
Energy Efficiency
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil CCS
Business-as-usual trajectory
Below 2°C warming trajectory
…
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Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014 18
°
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°
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1. The Basics
2. The Need 3. The
Approaches 4. The
Implications
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Atmospheric carbon
Organic carbon in plants and soil
Mineralized carbon in rocks / solid products
Underground geological storage
Adapted from: Negatonnes (Duncan McLaren for Friends of the Earth, 2011)
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Process: plants remove CO2 from the air; when biomass is burned, CO2 is captured and stored. Key prerequisite: sustainable source of biomass A double benefit: each unit of energy produced through Bio-CCS can displace fossil fuel in addition to capturing the carbon from biomass Embedded options: Bio-CCS can be developed alongside existing bioenergy and fossil CCS development programmes
Carbon capture and geological storage; Credit: Bellona
Biological
$60-200/tCO2
Availability of sustainable
biomass, availability of geological storage
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Biological
$0–60/tCO2 depending on feedstock
Availability of sustainable
biomass, size of market for biochar
products
Process: Slow pyrolysis (burning without oxygen) of biomass to a char that can be added to soil Co-benefits: improves soil quality and resilience, reduces other fertilizer use Scale: can operate at scales from small household to small commercial plants State: Numerous early commercial ventures are starting to sell either biochar or small pyrolysis units
Biochar produced from woodchips; Credit: Black Carbon
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Biological
$20–100/tCO2
Suitable land area,
saturation of forest sinks
Process: The establishment of forests on land that has either not been recently forested or has been cleared of forest Key prerequisite: For long term carbon storage, new forests must be protected and any products managed sustainably An early CDR leader: Afforestation and reforestation are already contained within traditional mitigation approaches and carbon offsetting
Pine forest in the Netherlands; Credit: ®DS / Foter.com
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Process: intentional changes in agricultural land management that enhances or restores soil carbon sinks and reduces GHG emissions from soils Benefits: enhance soil carbon often improve productivity and resilience, reduce environmental impacts and decrease the need for agricultural inputs, enhance productivity Scale: these approaches do not require new land to be brought under management, so a very large land area is potentially available
Cattle grazing in Ghana; Credit: ILRI / Foter.com
Biological
Most methods <$100/tCO2
Suitable land area,
saturation of soil sinks, identification and
diffusion of appropriate practices
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Process: concentrate ambient CO2 directly from the atmosphere into a pure stream for subsequent utilisation and/or storage Scale: 1B+t scale potential– constrained only by available storage and investment costs State: CO2 captured from the air is already starting to be used in as a primary feedstock for high-performance synthetic hydrocarbon fuels and polymers
Impression of a ‘dry’ amine-based sorbent CO2 air capture system; Credit: Climeworks
Chemical
$20-1000/tCO2
Availability of geological
storage in long term, energy and capital
requirements in short term
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Process: products – e.g. plastics and cement – that are derived from carbon sourced from the atmosphere Benefits: storage of carbon in materials with a long intended lifespan; could replace existing products if cost effective or if performance is greater State: research activity in plastics; early commercial ventures in cement
Plastic made out of atmospherically sourced carbon. Credit: Newlight Technologies LLC
Chemical
Goal is cost parity or better
Limited most
fundamentally by markets for materials
produced
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Process: accelerate natural weathering processes that currently draw down CO2 over geological timescales through carbonation reactions with silicate minerals Benefits: no additional energy input required for the capture process itself, though energy required for mining and transport The reaction of CO2 and silicate minerals is irreversible, thus guaranteeing the permanent removal of CO2.
A bag of olivine sand on the market for CO2 removal; Credit: greenSand
chemical
$25-125/tCO2
Land area where
sufficiently high reaction rates can be
attained; logistical and industrial capacity
in the short term
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1. The Basics
2. The Need 3. The
Approaches 4. The
Implications
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35 1 Lomax and Addison (Virgin Earth Challenge) 2Ciais, et. al. (UN IPCC). Curve assumes midpoint estimates for costs and supply levels 3 Fouquet and Pearson. (Energy Policy)
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…
…
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“Carbon capture and storage (CCS) aims to reduce the climate impact of burning fossil fuels by capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from power station smokestacks and disposing of it underground.”
Uncontrolled fossil fuels
Fossil fuels + CCS / EOR
Bio + CCS
The old story:
The new story: a pathway to carbon removal
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…
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Sci
en
tifi
call
y va
lid
ated
CO
2
seq
uest
rati
on
po
ten
tial
Economic Viability
Scalable, sustainable, cost-effective CDR approaches of the
future
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 44
1977: > $75/W
2013: < $0.75/W
NREL
PURPA
Solar ITC China invests in PV
Germany FiT
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45 Source: Dan Kammen, UC Berkeley
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Negative Emission Technologies (NETs)
Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR)
Enhanced Carbon Sinks
Carbon Drawdown
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CDR Focused Organizations
Established Industry National Regulators NGOs
Investors Government Banks
Early leaders in the general CDR field highlighted in red outline Note: logos link to websites
Media
High Net Worth Angels
On the radar for some insurers,
IOCs, utilities, auto manufacturers
On the radar at
IEA, major green groups in the
US / UK
Academic / Scientific Institutions
World Bank funding land restoration projects, but not
doing so primarily for CDR potential
Biochar Land management Direct Air Capture Carbon-Negative Materials Bio-CCS
Handful of recent articles on CDR in
mainstream publications, but
no dedicated publications / units
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2
Comparison of Carbon Prices Across Markets
1 World Bank (2014).
Few CDR projects can even
access carbon markets
Only 12% of global emissions
are capped today Largest programs highlighted in red
Carbon prices average <$10
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“Each person in the US is responsible for over 100 lbs per day of CO2 emissions”
Ken Caldeira, Stanford University
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50
Time
Cap
ital
req
uir
em
en
t *
tech
nolo
gy
risk
Research Development Demonstration Deployment Maturity
Afforestation / Reforestation
Land Management
DAC
Bio-CCS
Biochar Carbon
Negative Materials
Enhanced Weathering
Ecosystem Restoration
Dedicated Biomass Storage
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52 1 CDP (2012).
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… : fund demonstration projects and
research initiatives
: incentivize projects that pave the way
for CDR projects in the future (e.g. CCS/CO2 transport
and storage, EOR projects utilizing anthropogenic CO2)
: research the potential for strategic CDR
opportunities that enhance profitability while offering
significant external upside
search for ways that revenue
streams from CDR co-products can enhance energy
and agricultural projects
seek to invest in viable CDR
projects today – especially in the forestry and land
management areas, and monitor emerging CDR
techniques for investments in the future
fund/guarantee first-of-a-kind
commercial projects to pave way for follow-on
investment
encourage public equities to incorporate CDR
into business plans
estimate climate change related
claims costs to provide ballpark willingness-to-
pay for CDR
start developing protocols for measuring,
reporting, and monetizing CDR projects
further research CDR and raise
awareness by leveraging convening power
devote greater resources to CDR
research across technical and social scientific
fields
increase awareness and
understanding of CDR in personal and
professional circles; then buy products aiming
to be carbon negative when possible: e.g.
biochar for gardens, plastics/cement made from
atmospheric CO2, etc.)
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Source: Clare Heyward (Oxford)
Avoiding a given level of atmospheric GHG concentration
Avoiding global average temperature increases
Ensuring that rising temperatures do not impact upon core interests
Providing redress for injuries to core interests
Reducing GHG emissions
Increasing albedo
Improved irrigation, flood defenses, protection against disease
Financial compensation, symbolic reparation
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Source: Ciais, et. al. (2013). UN IPCC.
The graphs to the right show what happens once CO2 emissions stop: temperatures go down slowly along with atmospheric CO2 concentrations. To get temperatures/atmospheric CO2 concentrations to come down more quickly, sustained carbon removal is required.
The carbon cycle mitigates the impact of a one-time removal, as oceans and plants would release stored carbon back to the atmosphere
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Blog: Everything and the Carbon Sink (https://carbonremoval.wordpress.com/cdr-resources/) Email: Noah Deich [email protected]