past warming and ragweed season
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Past warming and ragweed season. US National Climate Assessment, 2014. Today ’ s 1 billion at risk for hunger could double by mid-century. . Future summers warmer than warmest on record. Battisi and Naylor, Science 2009. Climate Variability and Change. precipitation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Past warming and ragweed season
US National Climate Assessment, 2014
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Future summers warmer than warmest on record
Today’s 1 billion at risk for hunger could double by mid-century.
Battisi and Naylor, Science 2009
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PRECIPITATIONClimate Variability and Change
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U.S. CCSP, 2008 Globally Averaged
In Future, when it rains…it will pour.
By mid-century, Chicago region may experience 50-120% increase in CSO events (Patz et al. 2008)
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At least 24 died in landslide on March 22, 2014, north of Seattle
March, 2014, was the wettest in history for Seattle
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SEA LEVEL RISEClimate Variability and Change
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US National Climate Assessment, 2014
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Sea level affecting US populations
Schneider & Curtis, 2011
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEALTH “CO-BENEFITS”
Adaptation and Mitigation
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Reducing fossil fuel use:An opportunity for improving health
We can reduce:The 3 million annual deaths
from urban air pollution
The loss of 3.2 million deaths, from physical inactivity
Global Burden of Disease Report, 2013
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• Cost of cleaner energy:
< $30/ tCO2
West et. al. 2013
• Benefits of cleaner energy:$200*/ tCO2
WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???
(* Range: $50 to $380)
For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater
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20% fewer car trips:Change in O3 & PM 2.5
Grabow et al (2011)
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20% fewer car trips:Change in O3 & PM 2.5
Grabow et al (2011)
• >500 lives saved/yr• 100,000s of Hospital admissions avoided
• >$4 billion in avoided mortality and health care costs
And if those short trips (< 5 mi. round-trip) were done by bicycle, the fitness benefit would save >700 lives /yr and another $4 billion dollars in avoided mortality costs
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Active Transportation, Diabetes
National Walking and Bicycling Alliance 2014
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Active Commuting and Health--Evidence Shows:
• U.S. cities with enhanced levels of active transport experience health benefits obesity and diabetes rates 20% and 23% lower (Pucher et al. 2010)
• Active commuting in Finland reduces 10-year risk of chronic heart disease events (Hu et al. 2007)
• High levels of active commuting in China result in reduced risk of colon cancer (Hou et al. 2004)
• Active Commuting has a protective effect on cardiovascular outcomes, including mortality, coronary heart disease incidents, stroke, hypertension, and diabetes (Hamer et al. 2008)
• San Francisco Bay Area study found increasing biking and walking by 20 minutes/day would reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes by 14% and decrease (Maizlish et al. 2013)
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Dec. 2015 is fast approaching
Thank you. Jonathan Patz, [email protected] COP 21 to take place in Paris