path creation towards sustainable aviation fuels · 2018-11-29 · path creation towards...
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Master Thesis Exposé:
Path Creation towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels
Submitted by:
Lilli Kulta
Kassel, 31.10.2018
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 1
ABSTRACT
Background This thesis focuses on the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a way of reducing
CO2 emissions in aviation industry, and the current state of path creation
towards using SAFs in aviation. The aviation industry is emitting 2,5% of the
global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. There are various technologies which
have made sustainable aviation fuels ready for commercial scale production.
Therefore, the main obstacle for widespread uptake of sustainable aviation
fuels is not due to technical reasons. Instead the main barriers are related to
economic and policy issues in the market, especially the high costs of
sustainable aviation fuels.
Purpose The purpose of this thesis is to explore the current state of path creation in
aviation industry towards using sustainable aviation fuels with technological
innovation systems framework. This is achieved by finding out airlines’
current perspectives towards sustainable aviation fuels and how prepared
airlines are to use sustainable aviation fuels. The study will also focus on
getting insights why the airlines are acting the way they are and their attitudes
towards SAFs and voluntary carbon offsets as a way to off-set the higher price
issue of SAFs.
Methodology This study focuses on the phenomena of path creation, which means that the
objective is to find answers to why and how questions. Hence the qualitative
research is the most suitable research methodology for the purposes of this
study. The qualitative data is collected by conducting semi-structured
interviews. The answers are then outlined and analyzed comprehensively. The
quality criteria for the study is composed of uniformity and trustworthiness of
the interviewees’ answers about the airlines’ perspectives towards sustainable
aviation fuels. Whatever the conclusion of the study will be, it should be
considered as suggestive by the nature.
Keywords sustainable aviation fuel, path creation, technological innovation systems,
aviation industry, biofuel, path dependency
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................... 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................................... 2
LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................. 3
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................ 3
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................................. 3
1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................................... 4
1.2 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS ................................................. 7
1.3 STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................................... 9
2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................ 10
2.1 AVIATION INDUSTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................. 10
2.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL .......................................................................................... 13
2.3 PATH DEPENDENCE AND LOCK-IN EFFECT..................................................................... 16
2.4 PATH CREATION ..................................................................................................................... 18
3. RESEARCH QUESTION .............................................................................................................. 22
4. METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................... 25
4.1 RESEARCH DESIGN ................................................................................................................ 25
4.2 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH .................................................................................................... 26
4.3 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................... 27
4.4 DATA ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 27
4.5 QUALITY CRITERIA ............................................................................................................... 28
OVERVIEW OF CHAPTERS ........................................................................................................... 30
PLAN OF WORK ............................................................................................................................... 31
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................. 32
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 3
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Long term targets for international aviation CO₂ emissions (Noh, Benito & Alonso,
2016) .......................................................................................................................................... 5
Figure 2. Stylized net global CO₂ emission pathways. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2018) ............................................................................................................................ 6
Figure 3. Transport CO₂ emissions by region (International Energy Agency, 2018) .............. 11
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Functions of technological innovation systems (Suurs et al., 2010) ......................... 21
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CO₂ carbon dioxide
CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
GHG greenhouse gas
IATA International Air Transport Association
ICAO Intergovernmental Civil Aviation Organization
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
SAF sustainable aviation fuel
TIS Technological Innovation Systems
VCO voluntary carbon offset
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 4
1. INTRODUCTION
This paper analyzes the current state of path creation in aviation industry towards using
sustainable aviation fuels. This section intends to give a brief overview of the topic and to the
research conducted in this thesis. Sustainable aviation fuels have several other names such as,
advanced aviation biofuel, bio jet fuel, bio-kerosene, alternative jet fuel and aviation biofuel.
For the sense of consistency, the sustainable aviation fuel will be used to describe all the
previously mentioned other forms in this thesis.
1.1 BACKGROUND
The aviation industry is emitting 2,5% of the global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. These
emissions have high probability to increase in the near future due to rising living standards and
accelerating travel activities in emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India.
Additionally, growing world trade flows will result in ascending amount of flights per year.
Therefore, international aviation industry has developed a self-commitment of carbon neutral
growth from the year 2020. This leads to CO₂ emission reduction of 50% in 2050 related to the
year 2005. The ways to achieve the goal include more efficient aircrafts, optimized flight
operations and sustainable aviation fuels that have significantly reduced carbon footprint.
According to this plan extensive reduction on CO₂ emissions results from the market
introduction of sustainable aviation fuels to aviation illustrated in the figure 1. (Neuling &
Kaltschmitt, 2018)
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 5
Figure 1. Long term targets for international aviation CO₂ emissions (Noh, Benito & Alonso,
2016)
According to research conducted by Staples, Malina, Suresh, Hileman and Barrett (2018), the
use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
from aviation by a maximum 68,1 % in 2050. However, this requires offsetting more than 85%
of projected demand for petroleum derived jet fuel with SAF. In this scenario there are in
addition several other requirements related to the previous. These include prices or policies to
emphasize SAF production relative to other ways of utilization for bioenergy resources, and
the production and use of bioenergy and waste itself. Reduction of GHG emissions now has a
great importance despite the relatively small contribution to annual anthropogenic CO₂
emissions. First, due to expected growth of annual average 4.5-4.8% in commercial aviation
activity. This can result in 4.6-20.2% of annual CO₂ emissions in global level by 2050.
Secondly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report (2018)
confirmed that limiting global warming would require quick and unprecedented changes and
transitions, for instance, in energy, transport, buildings and industrial systems. Humankind has
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 6
now caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial level. Limiting
the global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C will significantly reduce the risk of negative
impacts in nature such as extreme temperatures, heavy precipitations, droughts, sea level rise,
increased number of lost ecosystems and species and ocean acidity. These will cause risks
related to livelihoods, food and water security and economic growth. Therefore, actions need
to be taken with rapid phase to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions that would result, at some
probability, in limiting global warming to a given level when reducing cumulative CO₂
emissions. The quick phase of the needed change can be seen in figure 2, where in grey line
global CO₂ emissions reach net zero in 2055 and blue line shows faster CO₂ reductions resulting
in higher probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Figure 2. Stylized net global CO₂ emission pathways. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2018)
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 7
1.2 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The purpose of the study is to find out airlines perspective towards sustainable aviation fuels
and how prepared airlines are to use larger amounts of SAFs and the underlying reasons behind
these. According to Bann et al. (2017), economic feasibility of biomass conversion into liquid
fuel meeting existing jet fuel specifications is one of the main challenges of sustainable aviation
biofuels. As stated previously the change in reducing CO₂ emissions must happen swiftly or
the global warming consequences increase to unbearable levels. However, the aviation industry
is barely using sustainable aviation fuels. The aviation industry’s perspective in academic
research has been this far been limited although there are several studies on sustainable aviation
fuels.
The price of sustainable aviation fuel is currently at least two times as expensive as fossil jet
fuel (Gegg, Budd & Ison, 2014). However, Jou & Chen (2015) argue that 70,4% of the airline
passengers are willing to pay more, average amount being $39.05, for their flight to offset the
carbon emissions generated during their flight. This raises question why most airlines are not
using this as a business opportunity and at the same time use voluntary carbon offset as a way
to off-set the higher cost of SAFs. Additionally, to high cost of SAFs Gegg et al. (2014) stated
other constraints which include a lack of feedstock, low funding and a lack of policy incentives.
However, there are several policies which aim to address climate impact of aviation. The
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has a goal of carbon neutral growth of
international aviation from the year 2020. Member states of ICAO’s Committee for Aviation
Environmental Protection agreed to a global market-based mechanism to address emissions of
international aviation to facilitate the international goal. This is called the Carbon Offsetting
and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). In addition, on the
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 8
intergovernmental level the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is aiming for
reduction of 50% in CO₂ emissions by 5050. (Staples et al., 2018)
According to Gegg et al. (2014) SAFs are technically viable and nearing the commercial stage.
Bruce and Spinardi (2018) stated that epistemic lock-in is a barrier to uptake more
environmentally friendly technology in aviation. Due to technological, institutional, behavioral
and infrastructural lock-ins, energy systems are subject to strong and long-lasting path
dependence (Fouquet, 2016). Schienstock (2007) argued, that evolutionary economics’ main
assumption is that techno-economic change is path dependent, suggesting that technological
choices made in the past influence subsequent choices. SAFs as new can still be seen as a new
technological innovation and SAFs need to overcome the lock-in effects and path dependency
constraints in the old technology. Therefore, this research concentrates on the path creation
which seeks to explain the emergence of new technological pathways (Hansen, Klitkou, Borup,
Scordato, and Wessberg, 2017). Schienstock (2007) stated that new path emerges often
gradually, side by side with the old path.
In this thesis path creation of sustainable aviation fuels will be evaluated with Technological
Innovation Systems (TIS) framework which according to Lovio and Kivimaa (2012) is a socio-
technical system that focuses on the development, diffusion and use of particular technologies
such as biofuels. Suurs, Hekkert, Kieboom and Smits (2010) argued that for emerging
technology to develop fruitfully, it should be fostered by TIS and in order to build up the
dynamics of TIS, the development of the seven key activities, also called system functions need
to be mapped. Due to limitations in time, the research will not be a longitudinal study which
would be optimal while researching path creation. The research is conducted as qualitative
interviews with experts of sustainable aviation fuels in different airlines with wide geographical
perspective since the aviation industry operations are strongly international.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 9
The research question is how prepared airlines are to meet the demands on CO2 emission
reduction in the case of sustainable aviation fuels and what are the reasons behind different
levels of preparation. Additionally, the thesis aims answering the question what kind of barriers
airlines currently have on their perspective holding them back from using more SAFs and what
kind of possibilities airlines see to increase the use of SAFs. As stated above, the question will
also be answered why the use of voluntary CO₂ compensation schemes with biofuels is not
common to offset the higher price of SAF compared to fossil-based jet fuels. Additionally, the
research will map the way how in the seven system functions of TIS framework are taken into
consideration and recognized related to the use of SAFs in the airlines and why. Lastly, the
thesis aims to find how the system functions are interacting with each other in aviation industry
and what type of relations system functions have to each other.
1.3 STRUCTURE
The purpose of this paragraph is to describe the structure of the exposé. First the theoretical
framework will be discussed. Climate change is a significant driver for change in aviation
industry and this relationship will be evaluated. Since this thesis focuses only on the sustainable
aviation fuels as a way to reduce CO₂ emissions, a closer look is taken in different sustainable
aviation fuels and the possibilities and restrictions related to those. Lastly in the theoretical
framework the effect for the current situation of path dependency and lock-in effect are
examined. Lastly, path creation as a way away from path dependency is discussed and TIS-
framework more closely for the empirical part of the study. Secondly, the main research
question and sub-questions are presented. Then in the methodological part the qualitative
research and research design is presented. At the end of this exposé there is the overview of the
chapters and the plan of work.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 10
2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
This section aims to define the most relevant concepts related to the path creation of sustainable
aviation fuels’ utilization in the aviation industry. The literature review gives an overview to
the relationship between climate change and aviation; the current state of sustainable aviation
fuels; the effects of path dependency and lock-in in this context; and how new technologies
can be adopted through path creation. Thus, this part is constructed to support the reader to
apprehend the qualitative research part of this study by understanding the underlying
conceptual framework of the topic.
2.1 AVIATION INDUSTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
IPCC (2018) reported that limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C has clear benefits
to people and natural ecosystems which would also give people and ecosystems more room to
adapt to changes. Currently humans have caused global warming with likely range of 0.8°C to
1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. Global warming will with high confidence reach 1.5°C
between 2030 and 2052 if the warming continues with the current rate. Figure 2 shows that the
pace of reducing CO₂ emissions and to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions is rapid to limit the
warming to 1.5°C and to minimize the cumulative effect of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere.
Net zero CO₂ emissions is achieved when anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are in balance with
anthropogenic CO₂ removals over a specific period.
Transportation accounted for ¼ of total emissions globally in 2016 (International Energy
Agency, 2018). This was approximately 8 GtCO₂ which is 71% larger than in the year 1990.
There are high increases especially in Brazil which doubled its transport emissions since 1990.
Additionally, annual growth rates in transportation are 5 times higher than in Americas
representing approximately 2.5 GtCO₂. China represents 35% and India 11% of Asian transport
emissions. Figure 3 shows these growth trends in transportation by region.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 11
Figure 3. Transport CO₂ emissions by region (International Energy Agency, 2018)
As stated by Payán-Sanchez, Plaza-Úbeda, Pérez-Valls and Carmona-Moreno (2018), “the air
transport industry has always faced a sustainable development dilemma: how to deliver vital
economic and social benefits while limiting or reducing its environmental impacts” (p.549).
Aviation industry has experienced continuing growth since the 1950s. Therefore, increases in
emissions and environmental pollution are not expected to diminish in the near future.
AAviation industry is nearly fully dependent on Jet A-1 kerosene which is derived from fossil
crude oil (Neuling & Kaltschmitt, 2018). Currently, aviation industry is emitting approximately
from 2% to 2.6% of the global CO₂ emissions (Lu, 2018; Deane & Pye, 2018; Neuling &
Kaltschmitt, 2018; Staples et al., 2018). In addition, air transport demand in the world is
predicted to grow between 4.5 – 6% per annum over the next decades (Lu, 2018; Deane & Pye,
2018; Staples et al., 2018). In Europe alone, the CO₂ emissions of aviation industry are
expected to grow by 45% between 2014 and 2035 (Deane & Pye, 2018). By 2050 the share
of aviation industry in global carbon dioxide emissions could grow to 4 – 20.2% (Lu, 2018;
Staples et al., 2018).
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 12
Due to effects of atmospheric emissions that aggravate climate change, emissions of aviation
industry have been placed within the scope of policymakers and industry representatives
(Payán-Sanchez et al., 2018). Deane & Pye (2018) argued that domestic aviation emission are
reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This is accounting for about 0.7% of world’s carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, approximately
1.3 % of global CO₂ emissions are under the responsibility of ICAO and these emissions are
not in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.
Because of the reasons described above, ICAO adopted a goal of carbon neutral growth of
aviation industry starting from the year 2020 (Staples et al., 2018). ICAO established carbon-
offsetting scheme called CORSIA for international aviation (Deane & Pye, 2018). This is
meant to encourage airlines to address and offset emissions over and above their average
emissions from 2019 to 2020. In August 2017 significant amount of 72 countries, that represent
at least 87% of flying activities internationally, intend to participate from voluntary basis.
Additionally, ICAO recognized the important role of alternative fuels in resolution A38-18 on
climate change. However, any targets were not set on the uptake of the alternative fuels. IATA
goes even further with the emission reduction goal by setting a goal of reducing carbon
emissions of airline industry by 50% compared with the level 2005 by the mid-century (Lu,
2018). In the EU, there is a goal of producing 2 million tons of SAFs by 2020 which is set by
Europe’s Biofuel Flight Path Initiative (Deane & Pye, 2018). This equals approximately 4% of
jet fuel consumption in the EU. However, Norway is currently pioneering in the usage of SAFs
by setting a rule that starting from 2020 the airlines must mix 0.5% sustainable aviation fuel
with jet fuel (Karagiannopoulos & Solsvik, 2018).
According to Lu (2018), aviation industry has several ways to limit the CO₂ emissions, such as
improvements to aircraft and engine technology, in air navigation, in airport infrastructure and
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 13
operations. Additionally, sustainable aviation fuels and market-based measures are vital to
achieve the emission reduction goals. Sustainable aviation fuels which can be low-carbon,
environmentally friendly and renewable, are considered as the most promising alternative fuels
for aviation. SAFs can also contribute to the security of jet-fuel supply while there is
considerable growth in the aviation industry. One quality which makes the sustainable aviation
fuels promising is the “drop-in” compatibility with traditional fossil-based jet fuel with many
currently certified for up to 50% blending with Jet-A1. The use of SAFs is certified for
commercial flights and therefore it can reduce carbon emissions of aviation industry today, and
thus, the focus of the research is on SAFs. However, alternative technologies are proposed for
more environmentally friendly aviation, for instance, liquefied natural gas, hydrogen fuel cells
and solar power (Gegg et al., 2014). However, previously mentioned are not certified yet to be
used in commercial flights.
2.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL
SAFs are jet fuel substitutes that are converted from biomass-based materials and for this there
are several process technologies available (Wang & Tao, 2016). There are two main processes
for producing SAFs (Gegg et al., 2014). Hydrotreated renewable (HEFA) fuels involve
hydrotreating vegetable oils and in Fischer-Tropsch process (FT) gasification of biomass
feedstocks is used. Both produce a bio-derived paraffinic hydro-carbon called Bio-SPK.
According to Hari, Yaakob and Binitha (2015), non-food energy crops, algae, municipal and
sewage wastes, waste wood, forest residues and halophytes are generally favored feedstock
sources of SAFs. Gegg et al. (2014) argued also about the promising properties of Bio-SPK
fuels:
Bio-SPK not only has similar chemical properties and comparable flow characteristics
at low temperatures to standard commercial Jet A/A1 fuel but it also does not contain
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 14
Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME), water, metal particles or other contaminants. To
ensure the safety and performance of Bio-SPK fuels, a lengthy period of testing
commenced. Trials of commercial aircraft followed from 2008 onwards and involved
different airframe and engine combinations as well as a variety of different feedstocks
and blend ratios. (p.35)
As a result, BtL (2009) and HEFA (2011) SAFs were granted a certification for commercial
purposes. There is a limit of 50% blend of SAF with traditional jet fuel due to make sure that
aromatics are present in the fuel. These aromatics which are not favorable for environment are
essential for proper operation of engine fuel seals, however those are not present in SAFs.
(Gegg et al., 2014)
After certification SAFs were used in commercial passenger flights. In 2011 KLM flew
commercially using SAF produced from used cooking oil. Later in the same year Lufthansa
conducted a six-month trial on the Frankfurt-Hamburg route and became the first airline that
used SAF made from mix of jatropha, camelina and animal fats. Later numerous airlines have
conducted commercial flights using SAFs such as Iberia, Alaska Airline, Gol Airline, Finnair,
Norwegian, SAS, Air France, Thomson Airways and Hainan Airlines. (Kousoulidou & Lonza,
2016)
Gegg et al. (2014) argued that key drivers in the use of SAFs are carbon reduction, energy
security, volatile oil prices, legislation, lack of alternative technology and new business
opportunities. The most important factor of these is the need to cut CO₂ emissions of aviation
industry. Life-cycle emission reduction of SAFs compared to fossil jet fuel can be achieved
between 30 – 89% (Neuling & Kaltschmitt, 2018).
However, there are several challenges related to SAFs. These are high production costs, lack
of investment, sustainable feedstock supply, inadequate legislation, strict environmental
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 15
controls for biofuels and lack of supply chain certification. Currently, SAFs have at least twice
higher price than standard jet fuel, and fuel costs account approximately 28% of operating costs
of airlines. Additionally, uncertainty about legislative support results in lack of investments.
The lack of sustainable feedstock supply is also seen as a major issue. Sufficient feedstocks
would be needed to make the current technologies economically sustainable and viable.
Feedstock should also meet both environmental and economic criteria. Reasons behind the lack
of the sustainable feedstock include lack of a clear sustainability criteria, lack of supply chain
and feedstock research. (Gegg et al., 2014)
In addition, the public awareness can affect the success of SAFs (Filimonau & Högström,
2017). Public awareness level of a new technology affects to the speed of societal acceptance
and societal acceptance can affect market success. Filimonau and Högström (2017)
demonstrated that in UK there is “limited public understanding of the environmental benefits
attached to the use of biofuels in general, and their application in aviation in particular” (p.92).
Additionally, consumer acceptance of SAF technology could be accelerated by better public
knowledge. Filimonau, Mika and Pawlusiński (2018) confirmed that Polish tourist were
concerned about SAF’s safety as technological innovation compared to conventional aviation
fuels due to limited public knowledge on the application of SAFs in aviation.
However, there is willingness among air passengers to pay extra to offset some of their carbon
emissions. This could be a way for airlines to cover the extra cost of SAFs by offering the
passengers a change to purchase voluntary carbon offsets (VCO) targeted to purchase SAFs.
In the study conducted by Jou and Chen (2015), 79,5% of air passengers were willing to pay
for VCO and majority of them were willing to pay more than $20. This is rather consistent with
the findings of Brouwer, Brander and van Beukering,(2008) who argued that 75% of air
passengers are willing to pay an average of $25. Additionally, research conducted by Finnair
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 16
found similar results where 76% were prepared to pay an extra of 5 – 20 euros on a one-way
flight, although 20% of passengers were willing to pay €100 (Caswell, 2018). This raises
questions why some airlines would ignore this business opportunity and will be addressed in
the practical study.
2.3 PATH DEPENDENCE AND LOCK-IN EFFECT
Fouquet (2016) argued that energy systems are under strong and long-lived path dependency,
due to institutional, behavioral and infrastructural lock-ins. According to Vergne and Durand
(2010) path dependence is a process where series of contingent events follow the initial
conditions, and the influence of those events on a certain path taken is considerably more
significant than the initial conditions. The path can be self-reinforcing, for instance due to
increased returns, and the outcome of the path may be lock-in, when there are no exogenous
shocks that would unsettle the whole system. Wang, Hedman and Tuunainen (2016) identified
four layers of path dependence that are technical, strategic and leadership, organizational, and
the external collaboration. Fouquet (2016) described the creation of path dependence in energy
technologies as follows:
A number of different technologies initially competed in the markets for personal
transport, electric current and nuclear power. However, in each of these markets only
one technology was likely to dominate in the long run, because of increasing returns to
scale resulting from repeated or mass production. An early head-start was crucial for
the successful dominance of a particular technology, enabling large production,
declining average unit costs and, ultimately, widespread adoption. (p.10)
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 17
Additionally to lock-ins in chosen technologies, lock-ins are prevalent in the R&D process,
which implies that energy systems are likely to be locked-in far longer than just from the
moment of chosen technology (Fouquet, 2016). When it comes to opportunities to change
pathway, critical junctures have occurred approximately every 30 years in car industry, and for
more complex lock-ins, such as the lock-ins in aviation industry, the frequency for
opportunities to change can be less often.
Additional barrier related to adoption of lower environmental impact technologies in aviation
industry is the epistemic lock-in rather than just simple inertia and resistance to unfamiliarity,
which must be overcome to uptake greener technologies (Bruce & Spinardi, 2018). Eco-
modernization cannot be relied on to reduce environmental impacts through efficiency gains
in aviation industry. This is due to climate change effects not having direct relationship to
efficiency and to complex path dependence phenomena of lock-in. Therefore, drivers of
innovation do not conform to the neo-classical economic model and policy initiatives are
needed. The lock-in can be seen in development of new aircrafts where it can be characterized
by a conservative approach that prioritizes reliability and limits the commercial risk involved
in this expensive process. However, there are additional external effects like airport design for
a certain type of existing aircraft, and there is lock-in which is created from increasing returns
when the incremental improvement of airline design gains from decades of investment and
operation. Thus, the thesis concentrates on SAFs which have the lowest lock-in effect of
alternative energy forms for aircraft since it can be used in current aircraft as “drop-in” fuel
which can be mixed with the traditional jet fuel.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 18
2.4 PATH CREATION
As path dependence focuses on the role of historical events in shaping the future, Garud and
Karnøe (2001) offered a contrasting perspective called path creation as a process of mindful
deviation from the current path with objective to create new futures. Mindful deviation comes
from that the actors of path creation search possible paths forward keeping in mind structures
and boundaries which currently exist. Pässilä, Pulkka and Junnila (2015) described path
creation as follows:
An alternative theory to path dependence, path creation focuses more on actors and
their interactions. It is described as a process by which actors are able to deviate from
existing paths and disconnect themselves from prescribed social rules and taken-for-
granted technological artifacts. Since creating something new usually requires
experimentation and thus being inefficient at first, it presumes the ability to seek future
gains. The key to successful path creation lies in the ability (1) to perceive and create
opportunities outside the box, (2) to mobilize other people and (3) to encounter apathy
and resistance with persistency and flexibility. In addition, it usually takes time. (p.
8804)
In addition to above mentioned factors, there are other factors which influence to successful
path creation. There are five factors mentioned below which are decisive in respect to
emergence of a new techno-organizational path (Schienstock, 2007, p. 95).
• Window of new opportunities opened by a new knowledge paradigm
• Market that promises long-term profits
• Economic pressure to adapt to the new paradigm
• Change events that trigger and support the transformation process
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 19
• Courses of action that steer techno-economic development into a new direction and
introduce techno-organizational and institutional changes.
In the first factor, the window of new opportunities has opened since technically SAFs are
viable as discussed earlier in chapter 2.2. Additionally, market can promise long term profits
for SAF providers until other sustainable energy technologies for aircrafts have been evolved
enough and there is will to change aircraft fleets. The third factor about economic pressure
related to SAFs is questionable. This can be true when it comes to publicly listed airline
companies from the side of the company owners. However, mostly there is social pressure
towards airlines to reduce carbon emissions. In the near future, CORSIA among others should
create also economic pressure to emit less carbon emissions. The last two factors are currently
evolving with rather quick phase, for instance goal of carbon neutral growth starting from 2020
and Norway’s new rule about mandatory usage of SAFs in the flights.
The development of new techno-organizational path and its embedding into a new institutional
and cultural setting is not a sudden break from the old path, which in this case is the use of
traditional jet fuel. The new path often emerges side by side gradually with the old path which
is seen as a usage of SAFs in commercial flights in several airlines. And in larger transition
periods, path progression might be driven by multitude of partially unrelated and overlapping
techno-organizational development. This results in transformation processes with widespread
instability and uncertainty.
Additionally, path creation is related several points in time as described by Garud,
Kumaraswamy and Karnøe (2010):
Path creation implicates all three moments of time – the past (as in the use of the term
“path”), the future (as in the use of term “creation”), and the present (as in the
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 20
conjunction of the two terms). Actors mobilize the past not necessarily to repeat or
avoid what happened, but instead, to generate new options. (p. 770)
Methodologically, Garud et al. (2010) suggest that in path creation research, researchers should
study processes in real time to avoid labelling any sequence of events retrospectively as an
inevitable path. They also emphasize the importance to “follow the actors” in order to study
how actions become possible through different kind of events. To study the path creation in
this thesis, several frameworks were studied and technological innovation systems (TIS)
framework was chosen. TIS has been proven as practical framework for path creation research
especially in the case of emerging energy technologies such as emerging biofuels and in
formative stage of natural gas as an automotive fuel (Lovio & Kivimaa, 2012; Suurs et al.,
2010).
Emerging technologies will pass through a formative stage before they are expected to get to
the stage of market diffusion. And an emerging technology should be fostered by TIS to
develop fruitfully. TIS is the network of technologies, institutions and actors and this needs to
be build up for an emerging technology. TIS will develop and wider its influence, which
propels the emerging sustainable technology to the direction of market diffusions, in an ideal
situation. In a formative stage TIS is characterized by developments. These can be actors being
drawn in, institutions and networks designed that enable the technology to fit better to its
surroundings. Thus, TIS gives insights of the dynamics of the build-up process characteristics
of the formative stage. This can be done by studying the seven system functions that are the
key activities which are illustrated in the table 1. System functions can also over time be
reinforcing to each other which can result in virtuous or vicious cycle. These effects of system
functions in the context of SAFs from the airline perspective raises also opportunities for SAFs
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 21
potential market diffusion. Therefore, these cumulative causations will be of interest in the
practical study. (Suurs et al., 2010)
Table 1. Functions of technological innovation systems (Suurs et al., 2010)
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 22
3. RESEARCH QUESTION
This research concentrates on the path creation seeking to explain the emergence of new
technological pathways (Hansen et al., 2017). In order to study and explain the airlines’ path
creation towards using SAFs, one main research question was set. The main research question
is:
• How prepared the airlines are to meet the demands on CO2 emission reduction in the
case of sustainable aviation fuels and what are the reasons behind different levels of
preparation?
Furthermore, in order to answer the main research questions, it is divided into four sub-
questions as follows:
a) What kind of barriers airlines currently have on their perspective holding them back
from using more SAFs and what kind of possibilities airlines see to increase the use of
SAFs?
b) Why the use of voluntary carbon offset schemes directed to the use of SAFs is not
common to offset the higher price of SAF compared to fossil-based jet fuels?
c) How and for what reasons the seven system functions of TIS framework are taken into
consideration and recognized related to the use of SAFs in the airlines?
d) How the seven system functions are interacting with each other and what type of
relations system functions have with one another in the context of aviation industry?
The problem of sustainability can be addressed through stakeholder engagement, alliances and
open innovation for generating new knowledge and to develop new solutions. (Payán-Sanchez
et al., 2018). At the moment, the price of SAFs is at least two times as expensive as fossil jet
fuel (Gegg et al., 2014). Thus, the assumption is that the price issue is the most significant
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 23
barrier for the airlines’ path creation towards sustainable aviation fuels. Other constraints, such
as lack of feedstock, low funding, and a lack of policy incentives are assumed to be of lesser
importance compared to the high costs (Gegg et al. 2014). However, lack of sustainable
feedstock also is raising the price of SAFs, thus it can also be mentioned as a significant barrier.
Most probably airlines see possibilities related SAFs when it comes to technical qualities of
the fuel, however they most probably see larger scale use of SAFs further in the future when
price and availability issues are solved.
Although SAFs are technically viable and nearing the commercial stage (Gegg et al., 2014),
most airlines are not using SAFs as a business opportunity simultaneously with using voluntary
carbon offset to off-set the higher cost of SAFs. The assumption is that either the airlines which
are not using this business opportunity, do not believe that customers would be willing to pay
extra for the use of SAFs and do not know the research conducted about it. Another possible
scenario is that the airlines have researched themselves the topic or tested it and received
negative results related to passengers’ willingness to pay for carbon offset.
In the system functions most airlines have probably had some F1 (see table 1) activities, such
as commercial flights using some blend of SAFs to try those as a possible way in future to
reduce carbon emissions. F2 activities, such as pilot flights with SAFs or some collaboration
with universities, might have been conducted by some airlines to know more about the
feasibility of the SAFs. F3 activities almost all airlines have been part in for information
exchange. With F4 activities there can be variations among the airlines among different
expectations and policy targets due to the SAF industry is just in a formative stage and in
different phase in different geographical areas. F5 activities would be considered in the
American and European important drivers due to EU ETS and the ICAO resolution to reduce
emissions according to literature review (Gegg et al., 2014). With F6 activities probably only
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 24
few airlines have engaged themselves due to fact that it is out of the scope of the core business
of airlines. Most probably airlines have good networks related to support in the use of SAFs
and most resistance might come from NGOs that question sustainability of the feedstocks used
and that it does not compete with food production in the F7 system function. Regarding to
question d) the assumption is that F3 affects positively F4 which affects F6 and then again F2
and F4 (Suurs et al., 2010).
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 25
4. METHODOLOGY
The study will be conducted as a qualitative research due to inductive study since the focus of
the research is on finding underlying structures and processes (Thomas, 2006). The purpose of
this section is to explain more precisely research design, what qualitative research is and why
it was chosen for this study, data collection and the way how the data will be analyzed. In
addition, this section also discusses the quality criteria for the study.
4.1 RESEARCH DESIGN
According to Suurs et al. (2010), new technologies are often developed within a context called
Technological Innovation System. TIS is a network which consists of actors, institutions,
technologies and the interrelations between them. The airlines’ path creation towards
sustainable aviation fuels can be considered as a radical technological innovation process
where several actors, institutions, regulations and technologies are highly interconnected with
each other. Many scholars have conducted studies about TIS recently and found out that before
getting widely accepted by the market, such emerging technologies must first pass through a
so-called formative stage. Hekkert, Suurs, Negro, Kuhlmann & Smiths (2007) proposed a set
of seven functions to be applied when studying the key activities in technological innovation
systems. These seven functions are:
1. entrepreneurial activities,
2. knowledge development,
3. knowledge diffusion through networks,
4. guidance of the search,
5. market formation,
6. resource mobilization and
7. support from advocacy coalitions.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 26
The seven functions of technological innovations systems will be used to provide a basis for
the interview questions in this study (Hekkert et al., 2007). In other words, the questions for
semi-structured interview are designed to give insight and information about how each system
function is fulfilled and how they are interrelated. This is another reason for using qualitative
research methodology. Moreover, that also enables new insights emerging from the questions.
Due to the limitation of time, the research cannot be conducted as a longitudinal study which
would be ideal for studying path creation.
4.2 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH
The research methodologies are generally divided into quantitative and qualitative research
methodologies. The decision between the two types of methodology depends on the objectives
and limitations of the research (Srivastava & Thomson, 2009). Quantitative research
methodology suits well for the studies that aim to answer to what, when, where and who
questions, i.e. questions that can be answered statistically. Qualitative research methodology,
however, is used in studies that try to explain why or how certain phenomenon occurs. In
qualitative research, the qualitative data is first collected and then analyzed by using qualitative
data analysis methods, such as examining or evaluating the reasons for why selected
phenomena exists or how it occurs (Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill, 2009, p. 488). The analysis
is usually aiming at identifying certain patterns, themes, relationships, etc.
This study focuses on the phenomena of path creation in the airlines related to the new
technology of SAFs. This includes, for instance, studying and explaining the underlying
reasons why airlines act the way they do. The objective is to find answers to why and how
questions, hence the qualitative research was considered as a more suitable research
methodology for the purposes of this study.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 27
4.3 DATA COLLECTION
The research will be conducted by interviewing sustainable aviation fuel experts from different
airlines from all around the world. Aviation is a global industry, thus the participants for the
interviews will be chosen widely to represent different airlines from different countries and
continents. All interviews will be semi-structured and recorded. Because the objective in
qualitative research is to identify and evaluate patterns the intention in this study is to conduct
5-10 interviews (Saunders et al., 2009, p. 488). The final number of interviews will depend on
the similarity or dissimilarity of the answers of the interviewees’. In other words, the number
of interviews will be considered as sufficient when the answers begin to form discernible
patterns or if they differ from each other in such a high level, that any patterns, relationships
etc. cannot be recognized at all. The interviews will be transcribed for the data analysis.
4.4 DATA ANALYSIS
The qualitative data collected from the interviews will be analyzed by using a method called
data categorization (Saunders et al., 2009, pp. 492-493). This involves two activities, which
are developing categories and subsequently attaching the categories to meaningful data sets
(Saunders et al., 2009, pp. 492-493). This is done in order to recognize possible patterns,
themes and relationships, which again makes is possible to re-develop the categories.
The collected data can be coded by open coding, axial coding or selective coding (Saunders et
al., 2009 p. 509). Open coding means disaggregating the data into units and trying to make
sense of it. Axial coding, on the other hand, is a process of recognizing relationships between
different categories. Selective coding means integrating categories to produce a theory. Out of
those three coding options, both open coding and axial coding are suitable for the purposes of
this study. Open coding will be used in the categorization process by first analyzing the
interviewees’ answers and then disaggregating the data into conceptual units. These conceptual
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 28
units will also be named so that the similar units of qualitative data will have the same name.
Axial coding will be used in a search for relationships between the categories of qualitative
data emerging from the open coding. (Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill 2009 p. 511). When the
relationships are recognized, they will be rearranged into a hierarchical form which also
includes the emergence of possible sub-categories. The aim of the axial coding approach is to
explore and explain a phenomenon, which in this study means exploring and explaining the
current state of path creation in aviation industry towards using sustainable aviation fuels.
Furthermore, each interview will be analyzed comprehensively, and the qualitative data will
be visualized by using graphical radar charts. This is due to visualizing multivariate data in a
form that will give a general impression about the existing state at a glance. The radar chart
will have seven corners, each representing one of the seven functions of technological
innovations systems. The bigger the radar chart is, the more prepared an airline is considered
to be to use larger amounts of SAFs. The evaluation will be based on the interviewee’s answers
and perspectives towards SAFs. Radar charts will also enable comparison between different
airlines.
4.5 QUALITY CRITERIA
Classical quality criteria in quantitative research is usually related to objectivity, validity or
reliability (Guba & Lincoln, 1994). However, the same criteria cannot be fully applied to
qualitative research. In order to tackle that problem, the criteria for this study is composed of
uniformity and trustworthiness of the interviewees’ answers about the airlines’ perspectives
towards SAFs. In other words, similarities and differences between different interviewees will
be outlined and analyzed comprehensively.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 29
If the answers have a high level of similarity, it is possible to conclude that the airlines have
similar attitudes towards SAFs and that their preparedness to meet the demands on CO2
emission reduction in the case of sustainable aviation fuels do not significantly differ from each
other. Moreover, similar perspectives and opinions related to the reasons behind different levels
of preparation will imply that the reasons are global and concern most airlines equally. On the
contrary, high level of dissimilarity in the answers and perspectives will imply that the airlines
act the way they do for individual reasons. Dissimilar answers and perspectives will mean that
the reasons behind different levels of preparation are not universal, and thus, cannot be
generalized.
It should be noted, that due to the limitations of time and scope reserved for the study, any far-
reaching or fundamental conclusions should note be made. In order to do so, there should be a
greater number of interviews and the scope of the study should wider and concern also other
actors in the aviation industry, e.g. suppliers and governments. Even if the answers and
perspectives will have a high level of similarity or dissimilarity, it is possible that some things
go unnoticed. It is also possible that the interviewees do not want to tell everything they know
or how the think. Some interviewees might have biases towards the topic. In some occasions,
the airlines might have guiding principles that are restricting the interviewees to speak openly.
For these reasons, whatever the conclusion of the study will be, it should be considered as
suggestive by the nature.
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 30
OVERVIEW OF CHAPTERS
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Purpose of the Study and Research Questions
1.3 Structure
2. Theoretical Framework
2.1 Aviation Industry and Climate Change
2.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel
2.3 Path Dependence and Lock-in Effect
2.4 Path Creation
3. Research Question
4. Methodology
3.1 Research Design
3.2 Qualitative Research
3.3 Data Collection
3.4 Data Analysis
3.5 Quality Criteria
5. Analysis of the Results
5.1 Data Categorization
5.2 Interpretation of the Results
6. Conclusion
5.1 Theoretical Implications
5.2 Managerial Implications
5.3 Limitations and Future Research
5.4 Final Conclusion
Bibliography
Appendices
Personal Affirmation in Lieu of Oath
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 31
PLAN OF WORK
Time frame Activity State
3.9.-31.10.2018
Exposé
Research design
Completed
30.10.-25.11.2018
Conducting interviews
Transcribing the interviews
Ongoing
(2 interviews are done)
26.11.-7.12.2018 (Distribution Management lectures)
8.12.-23.12.2018
Analysis of the results
Writing the chapters 5 and 6
Finalizing the thesis
To follow
24.12.-31.12.2018 Buffer
1.1.-21.1.2019
Proofreading and
reviewing the thesis
Preparation for
the thesis defense
To follow
Path Creation Towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels 32
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