path to 270. republican national committee 2004 vs. 2008 election results bush/cheney 2004...

Path to 270

Republican National Committee

2004 vs. 2008 Election Results

Bush/Cheney 2004

McCain/Palin 2008


2004 vs. 2008 Election Results

Kerry/Edwards 2004Obama/Biden 2008


Electoral Votes After Redistricting

+1

+1

+1

+1

+4

-1

-1

-2

+1

+2

-1

-2

+1

66

11

38

-1

+1

6

-1

12

10

8

-1

20

16

18

16

29

20

9

29

-111

“Obama must overcome an electoral map that is not as favorable to him as four years ago when he carried OH, MI, PA, IL and NY. All those states have lost Electoral Votes to the South and Southwest. That puts additional pressure on Obama to retain a group of states that before 2008 tended to lean GOP: VA, IN, NC, NM, Co and NV.” (Dayton Daily News, March 14, 2012)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

70

85

75

61

83

5057 55

31

54

-20-28 -20

-30

-29

Feb ‘0

9

June ‘0

9

May ‘09

March‘1

2

March ‘1

2

March‘1

2

May ‘09

March‘1

2

Jan ‘09

Sept ’11 (2

)

Approval among every demographic group has fallen, including key parts of Obama’s coalition.

(Gallup Weekly, 3/18/12– unless otherwise noted)

Women

Hispanics Young Voters

Indpts (1)

Jewish Voters

(1) Defined as “Pure” Independent(2) From Sept. 16, 2011 report

Job Approval: Key Demographic Groups


-6.9NM

-1.3PA

-5.7NV

-3.2NC

-2.2FL

-.8MI

-1.9IA

-2.1VA

-2.6NH-2.6

WA

-2.8MO

-3.8IN -5.3

OH

-4.8CO

-.4WI

Job Approval: 2010 and 2011

Gallup Weekly Tracking: Job Approval averaged by state showing the comparison between 2010 and 2011 approval ratings. (Jan. 2012)


Job Approval: 2010 and 2011

NV PA NH IA CO VA OH FL IN NC

12.410.4 9.5 9.3 8.6

6.34

2.50.9 0.4

-14.6-12.4

-15.9

-12.1 -11.9 -13.2 -13.2 -13.2-15.2

-11.7

'08 Obama Margin '09-'11 Obama Approval Decline

“In [10]…swing states that Obama won in 2008, Obama’s approval rating since 2009 has declined more than his

margin of victory.” Time, January 2012


Voter Satisfaction

As of January 2012 only 18% of voters polled were satisfied with the direction of the U.S. No other president has fallen

to such a low satisfaction number, in a reelection year, since George H. W. Bush in 1992 at 14%.

Gallup, 1/16/12

Project 270



The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path

Path for the GOP Nominee – Bush/McCain States

*note: includes all Nebraska EVs

States carried by John McCain and George W. Bush = 180 EVs



Path for the GOP Nominee – 270 EVs Needed

States carried by John McCain + all battlegrounds= 342 EVs


Path for the GOP Nominee – Historical GOP Battlegrounds


• Bush/McCain States = 180

• Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39

• TOTAL = 219


Battleground States - Indiana

2008 Election… Obama +1 (50-49) 11Electoral

Votes

2010 Election…Picked up a US Senate seatPicked up the State HousePicked up two US House seats

Current Numbers …Obama advisors say Indiana is “out of reach”…

Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 71,400 (BLS.gov)


Battleground States - Virginia

2008 Election… Obama +6 (53-47)VA hadn’t voted DEM for President since 1964

13 Electoral Votes

Unemployed Seeking Work: 262,487 (BLS.gov)

- Nearly 30,000 greater than 2008 margin of victory

DisapproveApprove

Obama Approval Ratings Among Independents

2009-2010 Elections…Swept all statewide offices (in 2009)Picked up the Governor (in 2009)Picked up the House of Delegates (in 2009)Picked up three US House seatsPicked up State Senate (2011)Increased majority in State House (2011)

March '12 (-3)46%

49%

(NYT 2008 Results)

Quinnipiac, March ‘12


Voter Registration: net GOP registration increase of 1.3% since 2008- Entire percentage point higher than 2008 victory margin

Battleground States – North Carolina

2008 Election… Obama +0.3 (49.7-49.4)

15 Electoral Votes

2010 Election…Picked up the State Senate and HousePicked up one US House seat

Election Turnout:2004 Bush: 1,961,166 vs. Kerry: 1,525,8492008 McCain: 2,128,474 vs. Obama:

2,142,651GOP Increase: 167,308 DEM Increase:

616,802


- Nearly 33 times greater than 2008 victory margin

(NYT 2008 Results)

(NC Voter Registration Data)

March '12 (-12)43%

51%

Approve/Disapprove: Handling of the Economy

(Elon Univ./Charlotte Observer, March ’12)

DisapproveApprove


Path for the GOP Nominee – Presidential Bellwethers


• Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs

• Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs

• Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs

• TOTAL = 266


Series155%

40%

Battleground States - Ohio

2008 Election… Obama +4 (51-47)

18 Electoral Votes

2010 Election…

Swept all statewide officesPicked up the GovernorHeld an open US Senate seatPicked up the Sec of State, Atty Gen, & TreasurerPicked up five US House seats

Wrong Track Right Track


- Over two times greater than 2008 victory margin

Right Track vs. Wrong Track

NBC News/Marist, March ’12

NYT 2008 Results

-15March '12 (-10) 43%53%

Approve/Disapprove: Handling of the Economy

Disapprove

Approve

Institute for Policy Research, Feb. ‘12


Battleground States - Florida


29 Electoral Votes

2010 Election…Picked up the Governor (from Independent)Picked up the State Chief Financial OfficerHeld an open US Senate seatPicked up four US House seats

DisapproveApprove

Quinnipiac, Jan ‘12


- Over 150,000 greater than 2008 victory margin

Jan '12 (-21)38%

59%

Obama Approval Ratings Among 65+

Hispanic Approval on Obama’s Economy: 43% approve / 51% disapprove(Resurgent Republic, Jan ’12)

NYT 2008 Results

27 % of active registered voters are 65+(Florida Voter Registration, 11/30/11)


Path for the GOP Nominee – 2010 Wave States





• 2010 Wave States = 46 EVs

• TOTAL = 312 EVs


Battleground States - Michigan


2010 Election…Picked up the GovernorHeld open Attorney GeneralHeld open Secretary of StatePicked up two US House seats

16 Electoral Votes

EPIC/MRA , Jan ‘12

DisapproveApprove


Jan '12 (-13)43%

56%

Obama Approval Ratings


Jan '12 (-15)40%

55%

Battleground States - Pennsylvania


2010 Election…Picked up a US Senate seatPicked up the GovernorPicked up four US House seatsPicked up State House

20 Electoral Votes

Quinnipiac, Jan ‘12

DisapproveApprove


Obama Approval Ratings Among Independents


Battleground States – Wisconsin


10Electoral

Votes

2010 Election…Picked up a US Senate seatPicked up the GovernorPicked up two US House seatsPicked up State HousePicked up State Senate

Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 82,100

Se-ries1 70%

24%

Marquette Law School Poll – January 2012

Wrong Direction Right Direction

-46


Path for the GOP Nominee – Addtl. Vulnerable Obama 2008 States





• 2010 Wave States = 46 EVs

• Addtl. Vulnerable Obama 2008 States = 26 EVs

• TOTAL = 338 EVs


Battleground States – Iowa


6 Electoral Votes

2010 Election…Picked up the GovernorPicked up State House


010203040506070

30%

64%

Wrong Track Right TrackSeries1

0

20

40

60

38%

58%

Disapprove Approve

-20-34

Approve/Disapprove:Handling of the Economy

Is the country on the right trackor wrong track?

Des Moines Register / Selzer & Company, Feb. ‘12


Battleground States – Colorado


9 Electoral Votes

2010 Election…Picked up two US House seatsPicked up the State HousePicked up the Secretary of StatePicked up the State TreasurerRetained the Attorney General

Unemployed Seeking Work: 215,987(BLS.gov)

- Nearly 20,000 greater than 2008 victory margin


Dec '11 (-5) 45%50%

PPP, December‘11

DisapproveApprove

(NYT 2008 Results)


Battleground States - Nevada


2010 Election…Picked up the GovernorPicked up one US House seat

6 Electoral Votes

2011 Election…Held a US House seat

Unemployed Looking for Work: 166,293- Almost two times 2008 victory margin

Foreclosures: Nevada has had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for 60 straight months. (Realty Trac, Dec. 2011)

Oct '11 (-9)44%

53%

DisapproveApprove

PPP, Oct ‘11

(BLS.gov)

(NYT 2008 Results)



5 Electoral Votes

Battleground States – New Mexico


2010 Election…Picked up the GovernorPicked up one US House seatPicked up the Secretary of State

Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 27,500

Debt: Since Obama took office, New Mexico’s share of the national debt has increased by $30.7 billion, with each citizen’s share increasing $14,929.43

(BLS.gov)

State of the State: Since 2008, New Mexico’s median income has fallen $1,418 (US Census website)

Martinez Approval Ratings: 61% approve / 27% disapprove(Public Opinion Strategies with Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin, Metz & Assoc., Jan. 2012)

(US Department of Treasury Website)

11.06.12

Paid for by the Republican National CommitteeNot Authorized By Any Candidate Or Candidate's Committee

www.gop.com

path to 270. republican national committee 2004 vs. 2008 election results bush/cheney 2004...

Documents