Path to the New Energy Efficient Economy

What on Earth Are These?

   

World Energy Use

World Population

World GrossIncome

Converting Heat to Work

Since pre-history we knew how to:

Work Heat

Industrial Revolution to:

Work Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine~1712

Revolutionary Change Transforms

Economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%

Place: cities grow from 5% to 50% Family: parents leave home to work Geography: steam ship and railroad Technology Population

Economic Explosion Pre-industrial revolution

per capita annual income: $600

Industrial revolution

US/Europe income $600 to $18,000

Increases 30x!

Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History

We’ve Come a Long Way…

Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% Watt’s steam engine: 1% Gasoline engines: 30% Coal Rankine cycles: 35% Turbines: 40% Diesel engines: 50% Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged…

1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels

2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2(O2 + 3.76 N2)=CO2+2H20+(NOx+SOx+…) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels

In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

World OilNear Peak Production

Peak production = 2015 Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

BB

Hubbert Curve Actual

World Natural GasNear Peak Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

10

^1

2 f

t3

Hubbert Curve Actual

Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal,

IEA 2004

World CoalPeak Production 2050?

Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’,

IEA 2004

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

10

^6

to

ns

Hubbert Curve Actual

Environmental Perspective

“Using energy in today’s ways leads

to more environmental damage than

any other peaceful human activity.”

The Economist, 1990.

99% 95% 95%

73% 70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CO2 SO2 NOx VOC CO

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollutionfrom Fossil Fuels

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Greenhouse Gas Trends

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

Coincident Global Warming

Hansen, J., “Is There Still

Time to Avoid Dangerous

Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate?”, American

Geophysical Union, 2005.

Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Emissions)

Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission)

Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up

Fossil Fuel Resources

Economy

Energy Out

Atmosphere

Fossil Fuel

Energy

CO2 &Pollution

Linear Model of Energy Use

“The need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable.”

U.S. National Academy of Sciences and counterpart academies from 12 other nations. 2009

State Renewable Electricity Standards29 States and District of Columbia

Mandatory

Voluntary

Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable Energy Economy, Deyette, J., Union Concerned Scientists, 2011

Ohio: 12.5% of electricity from renewable energy by 2025

U.S. CO2 Stabilization Scenario

Source: Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

Energy Efficiency Lowest Cost Source of “New Power”

Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011

Reduce U.S. CO2 by 20% at Negative Cost (i.e. while making money)

Source:Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”, McKinsey and Company, December 2007

Energy Efficiency in the U.S.

Source: Laitner, S., American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy,Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, June 25, 2008

Energy Efficiency in California

Source: Rosenthal, A. California Energy Commission, 2006

Energy Efficiency in Ohio

22% of electricity from efficiency savings by 2025 (AEP at http://gridsmartohio.com/)

All new schools must be LEED Silver

The Ohio Department of Development: grants and loans (http://development.ohio.gov/Energy/Incentives/GrantsLoans.htm)

U.S. Department of Energy: no-cost industrial energy assessments (http://academic.udayton.edu/kissock/http/IAC/default.htm)

Remarkably

Energy Efficiency– Increases business competitiveness– Increases resource availability– Increases environmental health