pathways to the futures of education anticipating change and taking informed actions hawai‘i p-20...
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Pathways to the Futures of EducationAnticipating change and taking informed actions
Hawai‘i P-20 Partnership for EducationKo‘olau Ballrooms and Conference Center, 11/13/15
Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD
Vision Foresight Strategy LLC“Reframing the future.”www.visionforesightstrategy.com
FUTURES STUDIESUnderstanding and anticipating change in society
Understand and anticipate change in society…and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future.
Two Complementary Aspects
Analytic: understanding
and anticipating change
Synthetic: reframing
expectations and preferences
Foresight:
Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present.
Elements of Our Work
Historical analysis
Images of the future
Theories of change and stability Trends & emerging issues
Forecasting
Preferred futures
Innovation & creativity
Theories of ChangeHow and why to societies, industries, communities, and organizations change?
• “Long wave” theories of economic change
• Diffusion of technology throughout society
• Pathways of institutional change
Scanning and Emerging Issues AnalysisSearching for signals of potentially important developments.
• Anticipating future public policy issues
• Exploring future technologies
• Tracking the rise of new concepts and philosophies
The “new normal”Rapid maturation,“mainstreaming”
Academic/scientificexploration
Fringe thinking
Who Uses Foresight?
SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
It’s happened before, and it will happen again
The “Roadmap” in the 1950s
The “Roadmap” Today…?
TRENDS & EMERGING ISSUESScanning for Signals of Emerging Change
Trends Emerging Issues
Trends vs. Emerging Issues
• Generational change• Digitization (everything)• Ubiquitous internet
access• Shrinking middle class• Rising income inequality• Rising global economic
competition
• Decline of US student performance
• Rising cost of college ed• Decreasing funding for
public education• Rising dissatisfaction
with ed outcomes• Shift to career readiness
A Few Trends…
• Adaptive learning• Alternative
credentialing• Augmented/virtual
reality• Artificial intelligence• Big data• Co-production/co-
learning
• Internet of things• Learning analytics• Nanodegrees• Online education• Open educational
resources• Tighter coupling of
employer interests and educational design
…And Some Emerging Issues
IMAGES OF THE FUTUREVisions shape actions and perceptions
Unwinding Higher Ed
The Reformed Institution
Bifurcation of Learning
Competing Images of the Future
RESPONSES TO CHANGEAnticipating the reactions of stakeholders
Three Basic Responses to Change
TYPES OF STRATEGIESSelecting the best approach to achieving goals
A concept or theory for how, in a given context and employing a given set of resources and competencies, you expect to achieve your goals
Strategy
Conflict Competition Coincidence
Three Categories of Strategies
Control the dynamic
Divide and conquer
Hit them where it
hurts
Deterrence
Take small bites
Negotiate while
advancing
Strategies of Conflict
Segmentation (of the market)
Differentiation (within the
market)
Cost leadership (within the
market)
Strategies of Competition
Stepping stone
Building block
EcosystemNetwork
Seeding
Strategies of Coincidence
Now let’s play with some of these ideas…
4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to ForesightBy Richard Lum
Intended to guide business readers through a complete and easy-to-use process for foresight.
The book will:• Provide a complete A-to-Z
foresight process in simple and straight forward language
• Outline the exercises for running your own workshops
• Provide the worksheets needed to lead workshop participants to producing results
• Give readers the confidence that their organization is asking the right questions about the future
December 2015
Mahalo.