patrick buckley dept. envr studies: geography
DESCRIPTION
Arab Political Demography Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world?. Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Arab Political Demography
Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is
Oil Destroying the Arab world?
Patrick Buckley
Dept. Envr Studies: Geography
![Page 2: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78
![Page 3: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Introduction
Start combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues
![Page 4: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Some Questions
Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region?
Does it relate to the Muslim World?
![Page 5: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
As a Linguistic Region
![Page 6: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Arab World Linguistically Defined
Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam.
Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?
![Page 7: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Result
Yes, seems fairly unified – it shares a common characteristic (formal region)
![Page 8: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
As a Historical Region
![Page 9: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Arab World Historically Defined
The Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491
Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?
![Page 10: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Result
Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs.
Each of these empires would also be a formal region
![Page 11: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
As a Religous Region
![Page 12: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade
![Page 13: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Result
Depends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity.
Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies.
![Page 14: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Religious % in Arab League
![Page 15: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
As a Political Region
![Page 16: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Today The Arab World Politically Defined – the Arab League
![Page 17: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Algeria
Bahrain
Comoros
Djibouti
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
MauritaniaMorocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Tunisia
U.A.E
Yemen
The Arab League - The League of Arab States Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests.
FACTS OVERVIEW Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia
![Page 18: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
How does this compare to the US?
Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state.
But it should get you thinking!!!
Turkey not Arab
Iran not Arab
![Page 19: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
USAPopulation: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012) Capital: Washington D.C. Area: 3.8 million sq miles Major language: English Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN)
Arab LeagueFounded: 1945 Population: 340 million (approx. 2007) Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members: 22 members including Palestine Major language: ArabicLife Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for men
More Direct Comparison
![Page 20: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Conclusion of Comparison
Today the Arab League population is bigger than the US
25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the US
Question How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region.
![Page 21: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Result
On paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America
![Page 22: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
As a Unified Region
![Page 23: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Variations on the Western Fringe:
Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs
How unified is this region?
![Page 24: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Note Shi’a Locations and Proportions
Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries
Click here for examples:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf
Inside there are variations.
![Page 25: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Examples of Hidden InformationCountry What it has to hide
Lebanon Religious differences not measured since 1932
Syria Religious differences not measured since 1960
Jordon Ethnic differences not measured since 1948
S. ArabiaTotal population counts questionable, no
religious data
Egypt Undercounts Coptic Christians
BahrainSunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a
majority
QatarWith an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data
not measured
![Page 26: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Unemployment
No Arab state seems to accurately report unemploymentFor example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%.(recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher)
See http://www.indexmundi.com/saudi_arabia/unemployment_rate.html
![Page 27: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
How does this relate to Oil/Gas?
Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of “worlds”? Oil and Non-oil?
In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil.
![Page 28: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
As an Economic Region
![Page 29: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map04.gif
Oil Reserves (Gb)
Country Gb
OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia 261.8
Iraq 112.5
United Arab Emirates 97.8
Kuwait 96.5
Iran 89.7
Venezuela 77.8
Libya 29.5
Nigeria 24
Qatar 15.2
Algeria 9.2
Indonesia 5
Non-OPEC Nations
Canada 180
Russia 60
United States 22.4
Mexico 12.6
Norway 10.2
Oman 5.5
United Kingdom 4.7
Egypt 3.7
Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration.
Two oil centers in Arab Region
![Page 30: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Saudi Arabia
Oman
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Kuwait
Qatar
The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich
![Page 31: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Saudi Arabia
KuwaitBahrain
Qatar
Oman
United Arab Emirates
CountryBahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates
500 0 500 1000 Miles
N
EW
S
Gulf Cooperation Council MembersOil Reserves (Gb)
Country Gb GCC
OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia 261.8 Y
United Arab Emirates 97.8 Y
Kuwait 96.5 Y
Libya 29.5
Qatar 15.2 Y
Algeria 9.2
Non-OPEC Nations
Oman 5.5 Y
Egypt 3.7
![Page 32: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group.
![Page 34: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
A result
Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area.
GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro-birth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?
![Page 35: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
% Non-NativeUnder 20%20 - 3535 - 5050 - 6565 - 80
500 0 500 1000 Miles
N
EW
S
GCC: Percent Non-NativePopulation by Year by Country
19901975 2000
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
BahrainQatar
United Arab Emirates
Population in 2000Nationals ............ 20 millionNon-nationals …. 10 million
![Page 36: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Note how many 30-35 year old Saudi’s there are and how many non-nationals
![Page 37: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
As a Demographic Region
![Page 38: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) “least developed” regions (not on chart).
1
2
3
![Page 39: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Result
Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results
RNI1960 1980 2000
Lebanon 2.9 2.2 1.4
Egypt 2.6 2.8 1.9
Saudi Arabia 2.6 3.2 2.5
Somolia 2.8
Four Demographic Division of Arab World
Slow Growth
Slowing Areas
Oil Rich/Pro-Natal GCC
Not Developing
![Page 40: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Most recent 2011
2011 EstimatesCountry TFR NRI
Lebanon 1.78 1.04%
Egypt 2.69 1.70%
Saudi Arabia 2.74 1.90%
Yemen 5.09 2.30%
Somalia 6.32 2.90%
![Page 41: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Additional Results
1. Slow growth areas will join developed nations
2. Slowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor
![Page 42: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Possible Results
3. The GCC hopes to “grow” enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline – too many for too little?
4. The ‘backward’ not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability
![Page 43: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Somalia???
![Page 44: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Final ConclusionsThere are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, but…
Differences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy – and thus possible futures
Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states
![Page 45: Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56814e39550346895dbba136/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Study Questions
1. Is there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against?
2. In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing?
3. If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.