patrick callioni national office for the information economy the information economy: what is it?...
TRANSCRIPT
Patrick Callioni
National Office for the Information Economy
The Information Economy: What is it?
Sydney 24 October 2001
Nothing new under the sun….
“The old tendencies of human nature, suspicion, jealousy, particularism, and belligerency, were incompatible with the monstrous destructive power of the new appliances the inhuman logic of science had produced. The equilibrium could be restored only by civilisation destroying itself down to a level at which modern apparatus could no longer be produced, or by human nature adapting itself in its institutions to the new conditions.”
(H.G. Wells, The World Set free)
Today’s World Computers outnumber people
Smart devices and appliances proliferate
General motors produces more computing power than IBM
Old economy vs new economy
ICT - driving growth and industry transformation
Sector 1990 2000$b % $b
%
ASX market capitalisation 140 671
Manufacturing 51 36 131 19
Resources 53 38 95 14
Finance/insurance 22 16 246 37
Other services (media, telco) 14 10 199 30
Australia
Australia faces many of the challenges confronting advanced economies around the world
But we have the added disadvantage of distance from many large markets
We have only about 19 million people, but the third largest ICT market in the asian region, behind Japan and China
A great user of technology, but not a major producer
Drivers of Change
Acceleration - ever faster change
Interconnectedness - no one is an island
Digitisation - remember “The Matrix”?
Consumerism- tomorrow’s consumers will not be like today’s consumers
Value chain redesign - the rules will keep changing
Acceleration
More innovation
“Ultra real-time”
New intermediaries
Moore’s law
Not only “faster”, but “smaller and cheaper”
The ability to do things not done before - or even thought before
0 10 20 30 40 50
PS2
Netscape
WDS
CD-ROM
PC
Cellphone
VCR
Fax
Cable TV
Phone
Pager
Interconnectedness The extended enterprise
New work scenario
The web is just part of the internet
The internet is just the beginning
Next generation hula hoops
Exposing the enterprise to customers and business partners
And vice-versa
Digitisation
The world is moving from analog to digital
The world is moving from computers to embedded devices
As computers become invisible, so does the interface
We will directly interface with digitised objects…
Can you cope with a talking fridge? Will it cope with you?
Consumerism - changing expectations
Trust
Customers want to manage by exception
Customers will resist doing the mundane work
They will ultimately deal with the organisation that is easiest to deal with
Mass customisation increases
Target market of one - the consumer of tomorrow
Value chain redesign
What are you best at?
Who can you align with for best of breed?
Collaboration to build a better value chain
The stock market favours specialisation - for the time being
Aggregators and resellers breaking down the model
End CustomerEnd Customer
R&D
ProductDevelopment
Marketing
Selling
Distribution
Tomorrow’s world
Ubiquitous bandwidth
Smart environments
Knowledge management
Higher performance computing
Biotechnology
Nanotechnology
Net-centric computing
Tagging
Digital money & micropayments
Privacy, security and information survivability
Human-computer connection
Ubiquitous computing
Anytime, anywhere
Always on
The wireless/wired capability
Remote operations, virtual employees
Network based organisations
The “open source” phenonomen
But... around 60% of the world has no phone access
Network Traffic, 2001
Voice16%
Data43%
WWW41%
Smart environments
Homes, offices and everyday objects will become networked and intelligent
Smart means conditional responses, within context
TAN and bluetooth
Smart ink, smart paper
Digital tattoos
Expanding requirement for bandwidth
Knowledge management - it is not a fad
Corporate knowledge will become a tangible asset
Community of interest knowledge will follow, and quickly
Dispersed workforce will operate in a knowledge management environment
Expert networks
Higher performance computing
High performance computers will model reality and allow us to question them - remember hal and 2001?
Mine massive data - and prosper from it
Simulate complex business processes
Understand the results - data visualisation and “new realities”
Net-centric computing
The internet (or its successor) permeates all systems, spawning new products, applications and services
Imarkets
Netsourcing
Optimised devices
Agents
The end of fixed prices
Digital money and micropayments
Programmable currency will reshape how we buy and sell
Customised cash
Micropayments
Televend
“A la carte” products, services and information
Consumer reluctance
Tagging
80% of online purchases will be made with reference to meta-information by 2003 (Gartner)
The web provides a vehicle for the vox pop
What happens when their opinion is as available as your marketing (and more credible)?
Biotechnology
We will be in the biotech age by the end of the decade
Biology is the fastest growing area of human knowledge
Fundamental change to society
Not just limited to human beings
Human-computer connection
Communicate naturally and effortlessly
Manipulate objects directly
The computer will become invisible, so will the interface
The advent of appliances
Communicate using all your senses
See me, feel me, touch me…
Generational differences
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is building things one atom or molecule at a time
Self-assembling consumer goods
Computers billions of times faster
Medical nano... virtual end to illness, aging, and perhaps, death
Molecular food syntheses... end of famine and starvation
Privacy
Secret secrets
Fail-safe business processes
Privacy is the casualty of the information age
A matter of trust
Consumer backlash
How do you protect an appliance?
So what, you say
Tomorrow’s world will not be like today’s
Tomorrow’s customers will not be like today’s customers
There will still be money…and the need for it
Do you see a lot of blacksmiths around?
No one can predict the future
We should learn from the past
Be ready for change
Preparing for change: what does NOIE do?
The Information Economy: creating an environment for
confident, innovative and productive use of IT, of
information and of knowledge.
The Information Industries: promoting investment and
innovation in IT and in information management.
Government Online: “walking the talk” and increasing
the network effect.
