paulo roberto's presentation slides from the 2010 world national oil companies congress

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Downstream Expansion in Latin America Paulo Roberto Costa Petrobras Downstream Executive Officer LONDON, UK. June 2010 World National Oil Companies Downstream Congress

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Paulo roberto's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

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  • 1. World National Oil Companies Downstream CongressLONDON, UK. June 2010 Downstream Expansion in Latin America Paulo Roberto Costa Petrobras Downstream Executive Officer

2. Disclaimer The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "should and "seek", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SECs guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. 2 3. Overview of Latin America macroeconomic indicators 4. Brazil & Latin America: Real GDP Growth (Y-on-Y; % Change)8.00 Forecast6.004.00%2.000.00-2.00Brazil Latin America Latin America + Mexico-4.002000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200820092010TheBrazilianEconomyhasweatheredtheglobaleconomicslowdown withremarkableresiliency.Itisexpectedtoreboundstronglyin2010.Source: Global Insight 4 5. Brazils Consumer Confidence Index (2005 = 100)130.00120.00110.00100.00Consumer Confidence Index Re Eco c on90.00 ve ory mi St c ar ts80.00Sep-05 Mar-06Sep-06 Mar-07Sep-07 Mar-08Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 ConsumerconfidencesignaledaneconomicturningpointfortheBrazilianeconomyin April/2009. TheindexshowshowBrazilianconsumershavebeenperceivingthe country performancewithrespecttothecurrentworldeconomiccrisis.Source: FGV (Brazil)5 6. Development of downstream markets: key strategies 7. Oil and Liquids Production, Proved Reserves and Consumption Oil: Consumption - 2009Oil: Proved Reserves - 2009 Oil: Production - 2009100% 100% 100% 4%10% 12%7%8%15% 8%75% 75% 75% 23%30%50%50% 50%57% 27%22%25%25% 25%17% 31%10% 5% 10%0% 0%3% 0%12 0 %10 0 %Total Asia Pacific Total North America80% Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East60%40%20%0% Total S. & Cent. America Total Africa 1Thegeographyofoil:consumers,producers,andreserveowners. Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 7 8. Latin America and Brazil Key Oil Indicators Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)* Oil Production (MM bpd) 9,8 10,1210,6 Presalt estimates willadd up to16bn boe3,02,0 14,1620092014 2009 Latin AmericaBrazil Latin AmericaBrazil Refinery Capacity (MM bpd)Oil Demand (MM bpd)9,4 8,3 7,9 7,4 2,72,0 2,41,920092014* 20092014 Latin AmericaBrazil *Firm+ProbableLatin America Brazil *Proved Reserves of Crude Oil and NGLSource: Woodmackenzie, Cera, Pira, BP(2010) and Petrobras8 9. Brazilian Oil Market Slate Vs International Markets (2009)100%13%20%19%21%19%20% 18%90% 27% 5%80%3% 10% 14%10% 14%70% 8%25%28%60%31% 54%50% 36% 50% 44% 38%40% 32% 30%49%20% 38%32% 28%28% 22%22%23%10% 0%USEurope MiddleAfricaChinaJapanLatinBrazil*EastAmericaLight distillates Middle distillates Fuel oilOthers Duringthelast3years,gasolinemarketinBrazilhavebeencontestedbyethanoland vehicularnaturalgas. TheBrazilianinvestmentprogram,focusedonincreasingconversion,aimstoreduce fueloilproductionandreducemiddledistillatesdeficit. Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 and Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP)9 10. Latin America Oil Demand by ProductLatin America Demand Profile 9000 k bpd 80007000600050004000300020001000 0199619971998 19992000 20012002 20032004 20052006 20072008 20092010 20112012 20132014Gasoline NaphtaJet Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil LPGOther Overthenext5years,totaldemandforoilproductsinLatinAmericawillincrease 2,31%p.y.,whiledieseldemandwillriseby3,41%p.y.andjetby2.85%p.y.. Gasolinedemandisexpectedtoincreaseby2,18%p.y.between2009and2014.10 11. Evolution of Unit Sales of Vehicles By Fuel In BrazilDIESEL 3,500Thousand CarsETHANOL 3,000 FLEX FUEL GASOLINE 2,5002,0001,5001,000 50002005 20062007 20082009 2010(*)*Totalsales until April 2010 GasolineorEthanolorboth?Thedecisionliesinconsumerchoice. Highflexfuelshareintotalvehiclesalesshowthehugepotentialforcompetition betweenethanolandmogas inthenearfuture.Source: ANFAVEA11 12. Brazilian Vehicular Fuel MatrixGasoline C: Gasoline + Anhydrous Ethanol23.3 + 8.2 = 31.5% 23,3% Diesel (Total) 50.9 + 0.5 = 51.4%50,9%8,2% Pure Gasoline Anhydrous Ethanol 13,7% Hydrated Ethanol 3,4%Natural GasEthanol (Total)Biodiesel8.2 + 13.7 = 21.9% Diesel0,5% Despitethecompetitionbetweengasolineandethanol,dieselhas byfarthehighest marketshareamongoilproductsforvehicularuse. Withhighereconomicgrowthexpectedoverthenextfewyears,thedemandfordiesel willincrease,drivenmainlybythetransportsector. Source: Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP)12 13. Evolution of Brazilian Oil Products Balancesk bpd GASOLINEGASOLINEDIESELDIESEL 99 112 109 89 99 112 109 64 6451 70 89 2870 34 51 56 43 34 48 46 64 45 4334 51 56 43 34 48 4645 4364 45 36 51 45 3640 *2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009JETJET FUEL OILFUEL OIL109 126 126 98 113 91 109 84 10284 102 98 113 91 85 70 85 7425 1915 20 17 6 2 6 12 15 25 2129 15 20 17 6 2 6 12 1529 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*Surplus DeficitGasolineexportsoccurlargelybecauseethanolandvehicularnaturalgasprovidea substantialshareofBrazil'slightvehicletransportationfuels. TheBrazilianinvestmentprogram,focusedonincreasingconversion,aimstoreduce fueloilproductionandreducemiddledistillatesdeficit. Source: Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) 13 14. Fast Growing Domestic Demand(000b/d)Others 3.4%p.a.FO 2,794Diesel 4,1%p.a.QAV 2,356 325Naphta 166Gasoline 1,944276 1,814 1,907 1,933126 LPG 1,784 1,776182 197 195141155155 119 109 1031187189117108 937628 687 685 738 782 770136170 80 73 76848994 252252241237237 250 220 223315 332 334 403452 314314 326220201201 208 215 213 2262422000200420052007200820092014E 2020EStrongmarketgrowthforbasicproductsin20092020. HigherprofitabilityandlowerdemandriskincomparisontoLatinAmerica.14 15. Potential Market of Otto Cycle Fuels 95.00090.0004,185.00080.000%Gasoline CFlex-fuelHydrous Ethanol CNG75.000 Thous. cu.m of gasoline equivalente70.00065.00060.00055.00050.00083,745.000%40.00035.00030.00025.00020.00015.00010.000 5.000Consumption of each fuel per motor type (includes motorcycles)12,2 0Gasoline C: 25% Ethanol % 199619982000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20142016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030VehiclesalesinBrazilarebeingincreasinglydrivenbyfuelflexibility,followingthe introductionofFlexFuelunitsin2003. Thefastincreaseinflexfuelshareintotalsalesin20052009pointsoutastrong competitionbetweenmogas andethanol,followedbynaturalgas,overthenextyears.15 16. Refinery Utilization Latin America and BrazilRefinery Utilization Factor 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 20062007 2008 2009Latin AmericaBrasilBettermarginsandstrongerdomesticmarketledtohigherrefineryutilizationratein Brazil. ItmeanshigherprofitabilityandlowerdemandrisktorefiningprojectsinBrazilwhen comparedtoLatinAmerica. Source: Pira and Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) 16 17. Vertically Integrated System to Capture Synergieswithin the Value Chain 17 18. Enhancing Reserves Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, canalmost double Brazilian reserves.18 19. Pursuing New Projects while Maximizing Production from Existing AssetsPetrobras Total Production (k bpd) 5.382 7,1% p.y.1203.907 2039,4% p.y.11094,9% p.y. 2.723 128 176 2.4002.5256232.217 2.297 2.301 93 2.020 1.810 2.037101 11010097 14694 96124 141 38485 163142 126321 31622161 277 273 395035168274252 251 2652980 18551971 2100 1540 16841778179215001493 1,183 Pre-Salt152 Pre-Salt 2002 2003 200420052006200720082009 20102014 2020 Oil Production Brazil Gas Production Brazil Oil Production International Gas Production International * Plus or minus 2,5%19 20. Petrobras Refining InfrastructureREMAN LUBNORCapacity TroughputRPCC Refineries (Mbpd) (Mbpd) Paulnia - Replan (SP)365 324 Landulpho Alves - Rlam (BA) 279 254RLAM Duque de Caxias -Reduc (RJ) 242 256 Henrique Lage - Revap (SP)251 205 Alberto Pasqualini - Refap (RS) 189 142REGAPPres. Getlio Vargas - Repar (PR) 189 183 Pres. Bernardes - RPBC (SP) 170 168 Gabriel Passos - Regap (MG) 151 143REDUCManaus - Reman (AM) 4639 REPLAN Capuava - Recap (SP)5345 Fortaleza - Lubnor (CE)7 6REVAPClara Camaro - RPCC (RN) 2625 REPAR RPBC Total Brazil 19681790REFAP RECAP United States 100 98 Argentina 8154AsPetrobrascontinuestogrowitsupstreamOkinawa 100 45 business,theneedforacompatiblerefining Total Petrobras2,223 1,962 infrastructurebecomesmorecriticalWith limited investment overthe last 30years,Petrobraswillincreasecapacitytomeettheneedsofagrowingdomesticmarket20 21. Significant Improvements in the Trade Balance1Q09 (k bpd)1Q10 (k bpd)215 192140274 451 555426347100 126Exposts Imports Net Exports Exposts Imports Net Exports OilOil Products OilOil ProductsPositivenetexportsbyhigheroilproduction,improvementsinourrefiningsystemandreducedinternaldemand. 21 22. Focused Strategy to Add Value to Domestic Crude Expandrefiningcapacity inBraziland internationally Optimizequalitytomake Petrobrasthepreferredfuels Improvemarginsby brandforconsumersinBrazilexpandingaverage andabroad complexityIncreaseproductionofbasic Usecommercialand petrochemicals,capturing logisticalpartnershipstosynergies withintheexpandpresencein PetrobrasSystemtargetmarkets22 23. Investing During 2010-2014 to Realize These Goals 20092013Plan 20102014PlanDownstream Investments Downstream Investments US$ 47.8 billion12%US$ 78.7 billion Refining 7%Pipelines&Terminal 6% Transport8% 6%Refining ShipTransport 12% Petrochemicals 73% Pipelines&TerminalTransportShipTransport Petrochemicals 76% Addingvaluestodomesticcrudeandproducingdieselandgasolineinlinewith internationalstandards InvestmenttargetsFuelQuality,ConversionandExpansion 23 24. Lessening Imported Crude Requirements for Refining Inputs DomesticCrudeasaPercentageofTotalFeedstockProcessed91%80%80% 79% 78% 76%Petrobras refiningsitewillbeadaptedto runmoredomesticcrude,therefore capturingthelight/heavydifferentialand avoidingaciditycrudediscounts 200120032005200720092020 24 25. Domestic Refineries Crude Throughput Downstream Investments US$ 78.7 billion Adding values to domestic crude and producing diesel and6% 6% Refininggasoline in-line with international standards12% Pipelines&Terminal Investment targets Fuel Quality, Conversion and Expansion Transport ShipTransport3,012 PetrochemicalsPremium I76% 300 tho. bpd 1st Fase: 2014 2,260Premium I300 th bpd REPLAN RNE 2st Fase:1,779 1,791 (kbpd) Revamp230 tho. 201633 tho. bpdbpd 2010 2013Premium II 300 tho. bpd 2017 Comperj 165 tho. Comperj bpd 165 tho. bpd 1st Fase 2st Fase:20132018200820092010 201120122013 20142020 25 26. Domestic Refining Greenfields Capacity Additions(600kbpd) (300kbpd)(PremiumI&II) Diesel10ppm (60%),LPG(4%), Naphtha (14%),Jet(12%),OC+Terminals and PipelinesBunker (10%)Operated by Transpetro(230kbpd)Diesel(64%),LPG(3%),Naphtha(6%),Bunker(16%),Coke(11%)(330kbpd)Diesel(53%),LPG(6%),Naphtha Existing pipelines(1%),Jet(28%),OC(4%),Coke (8%) Refineries Onshore Terminals Offshore TerminalsNumbers inkbpd arecapacities26 27. Domestic Refining Capacity Additions 1.400K bpd 1.2001.000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 - 2014Distilation Capacity Conversion Capacity Hydrotreating CapacityUntil2014,Brazilwilladd736kbpdofDistillationCapacity,495kbpdofConversion Capacityand1273kbpdofTreatingCapacity CokingunitsinvestmentswillconvertBrazilianheavyoilintolighterproductsatthe sametimethatHDTunitswillreducesulphur tomeetinternationalstandards. TreatinginvestmentswillallowBraziltohavedieselinmetropolitanareascontaininga maximumsulphur contentof50/10partspermillion,significantlylowerthancurrent levelsin2009.27 28. CDU Capacity and Petroleum Demand Latin Americaand Brazil 12,000K bpd 10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-2005 20062007 2008 2009 20102014 Refinery Capacity - Brazil Refinery Capacity - Latin America (Firm + Probable)Refinery Capacity - Latin America (Less Likely)Total Petroleum Demand* - Latin AmericaTotal Petroleum Demand* - Brazil *Excludes biofuels Until2014LatinAmericawilladd1,53MMbpdofCDUcapacity(Firm+ProbableProjects). Brazilrepresents48%ofthisaddition. ProjectsrankedasLessLikely accountformore788kbpdofCDUcapacity Source: Cera, Pira and Petrobras 28 29. Conversion Capacity and Light Products Demand LatinAmerica and Brazil 6,000 K bpd 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 -20052006 20072008 20092010 2014Conversion Capacity - BrazilConversion Capacity - Latin America (Firm + Probable) Conversion Capacity - Latin America (Less Likely) Light Products Demand - Brazil Light Products Demand - Latin America*Gasoline,Naphta,Jetand DieselUntil2014LatinAmericawilladd1,12MMbpdofConversioncapacity(Firm+Probable Projects).Brazilrepresents44%ofthisaddition. ProjectsrankedasLessLikely accountformore463kbpdofConversionCapacity Source: Cera, Pira and Petrobras 29 30. CDU Capacity Evolution in Latin America (Firm + Probable) & Less Likely Colombia 900 KbpdOthers (Less Likely)(Barrancabermeja/Trinidad and Tobago (Less Likely)Venezuela (Less Likely) Cartagena) 800Colombia (Less Likely)ExpansionOthersVenezuelaCompany:Ecopetrol 700PeruTrinidadand Tobago 47/90kbpdCDUMexico(PointeAPierre) 600CubaNew Refinery Ecuador (Manta)ColombiaNew Refinery Company:PetrotrinBrazil 500 200kbpdCDUCompany: Mexico (Minatitlan)PetroecuadorCuba(Cienfuegos) 400 Expansion300kbpdCDU Expansion Company:PEMEXCompany:Cupet 300100kbpdCDU 85kbpdCDU200100 0 2010 20112012 2013 2014 Consideringonlyfirmandprobableprojects,in2014themajorrefiningcountriesin LatinAmericawillbeBrazil(2.6MMbpd),Mexico(1.6MMbpd)andVenezuela(1.4 MMbpd)representingmorethan60%oftheregiontotalcapacity.Source: Pira (Refinery Database) and Petrobras30 31. Conversion Capacity Evolution in Latin America (Firm + Probable) & Less Likely900 Kbpd Conversion Units: Coking, FCC and HCCOthers (Less Likely)800 Trinidad and Tobago (Less Likely) Trinidadand TobagoVenezuela (Less Likely)Mexico (Less Likely) Mexico(PointeAPierre)700 34kbpdCokerColombia (Less Likely) (Salamanca)Others 48kbpdCoker27kbpdFCC600 Venezuela27kbpdHCC60kbpdFCCMexico500 Colombia ColombiaBrazil(Barrancabermej)400 90kbpdCokerMexico (Minatitlan)58kbpd HCC30056kbpdCoker (Cartagena) Ecuador42kbpdFCC25Kbpd Coker(Manta)200 Mexico 57kbpd FCC 90kbpdFCC29kbpdCoker (Salina)10079kbpdCoker (Tula) 0 20102011 2012 20132014 -100Consideringfirmandprobableprojects,conversioncapacityin2014willbealso concentratedinBrazil(1.2MMbpd),Mexico(0.67MMbpd)andVenezuela(0.46MM bpd)representing65%oftheregiontotalcapacity.Source: Pira (Refinery Database) and Petrobras 31 32. Gasoline and Diesel Sulphur Specifications Through Latin America Markets Venezuela Mexico ColombiaEcuador PeruBrazil Bolivia Paraguay ChileArgentinaUruguay Tighterspecificationsformogas anddieselfrom2013on.Source: IFQC, PFC and Petrobras32 33. New Vessels: Investments in Marine TransportNew Vessels Delivery Plan Critical Marine Transport Resources2009 2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015 Tankers5138 (1)10 (1) Drilling Units5 2631 Supply and Special Vessels254465 491 Production Platforms (2) 41 5363 Others (Jack-ups and TLWP) 79 8183 Total 430663 678 (1)Promef 1 and Promef 2 (2)FPSO and SS Supply Vessel Large Vessel (VLCC) Production Platform (FPSO)Besides Petrobras Investments in Marine Transport, the two stages of EBN Program (Brazilian Navigation Company ) will allow 39 vessels to be built by Brazilian companies in shipyards located in Brazil, based on a 15 years charter contract with Petrobras.33 34. Comperj: Contributing to Petrobras Value Chain Comperj is going to: Expand the domestic petrochemical Capture synergies from existing regional marketinfrastructure Run Marlim crude as feedstock Improve the balance within the commercial value chain for oil, oil products and petrochemicals DOWNSTREAM PETROCHEMICALS Production Products (kta)ProductionDiesel 8,060Products (kta)QAV1,720Polypropylene 920 FuelsCoke 1,400Polyethylene930Ethylene 1,245Styrene 400Propylene1,035Ethylene glycol 380 Petrochemicals Benzene 410Butadiene 170p-Xylene475Sulphur 4534 35. How to Add Value to StakeholderRunningourbusinesswithoperationalexcellence,capitaldisciplineandsound returnsSafe,reliable,andenvironmentallyresponsibleoperationsFocusonclientneedsProvidingthedomesticandinternationalmarketswithinternationalproducts specifications,mainlythroughpremiumandhighvalueproductsAdvantageddomesticcrudeprocessingthroughenhancedintegrationwith Exploration&Productionsegmentandinvestmentsinrefineriesandhigh conversionunitsInvestmentsinrefiningandpetrochemicalstechnologyCapturingscalegainsandsynergiesinPetrobrasSystem 35 36. www.petrobras.com.br