pc02 increased load study results pc02 - increased load - final results.pdfpc02 increased load study...
TRANSCRIPT
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PC02 Increased Load Study Results
Katie Furse Iversen
October 3, 2016
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
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PC02 Increased Load
• Purpose: Model & plan for a variety of futures
– 10% increase in load by area
Use: How does the system react to increased loads?
– Generation changes
– Utilization/congestion impacts
– Loads served & associated costs
2
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-
10% Increase In Load by Area
3
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1
17
0
33
9
50
8
67
78
46
10
15
11
84
13
53
15
22
16
91
18
60
20
29
21
98
23
67
25
36
27
05
28
74
30
43
32
12
33
81
35
50
37
19
38
88
40
57
42
26
43
95
45
64
47
33
49
02
50
71
52
40
54
09
55
78
57
47
59
16
60
85
62
54
64
23
65
92
67
61
69
30
70
99
72
68
74
37
76
06
77
75
79
44
81
13
82
82
84
51
86
20
WEC
C-W
ide
Lo
ad (
MW
)
Time (hrs)
2026CC V1.3 (CIPB) 2026CC V1.3 W/High Load (CIPB)
-
25% Increase In WECC Wide Load
4
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0.0
20000.0
40000.0
60000.0
80000.0
100000.0
120000.0
140000.0
160000.0
180000.0
200000.0
11
73
34
5
51
7
68
98
61
10
33
12
05
13
77
15
49
17
21
18
93
20
65
22
37
24
09
25
81
27
53
29
25
30
97
32
69
34
41
36
13
37
85
39
57
41
29
43
01
44
73
46
45
48
17
49
89
51
61
53
33
55
05
56
77
58
49
60
21
61
93
63
65
65
37
67
09
68
81
70
53
72
25
73
97
75
69
77
41
79
13
80
85
82
57
84
29
86
01
Load
(M
W)
Time (hrs)
2026CC V1.3 2026CC V1.3 W/High Load
-
Annual Generation Change
5
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
Annual Generation (Gwh)
2026 WECC V1.3 2026 PC2 V1.3
-
Generation Change by Subregion
6
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2
Alberta British Columbia Basin California Desert Southwest Northwest Rocky Mountain
Wind
Solar
Small Hydro RPS
Geothermal
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Other
IC
Combustion Turbine
Combined Cycle
Nuclear
Steam - Other
Steam - Coal
Energy Storage
Conventional Hydro
GWh
IGS assigned to CA
-
Heavily Utilized Paths w/High Load
7
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ho
urs
U75 U90 U99
-
Heavily Utilized Path P52
8
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Me
gaw
atts
WECC P52 Silver Peak-Control 55 kV
2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min
W -> E
-
P60
9
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Me
gaw
atts
WECC P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie
2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min
E -> W
-
P80
10
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Me
gaw
atts
WECC P80 Montana Southeast
2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min
N -> S
-
P83
11
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Me
gaw
atts
WECC P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line
2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min
N -> S
-
P45
12
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Me
gaw
atts
WECC P45 SDG&E-CFE
2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min
N -> S
-
Load Served & Associated Costs
V1.3 Common Case
P02 High Load Case
% Difference
Unserved Load 0 0 -
Served Load including losses (MWh)
983,039,081 1,082,132,696 10%
Generation Revenue (M$) 33,140 43,524 31%
Generation Cost (M$) 17,794 22,163 24%
CO2 Cost (M$) 3,613 4,282 16%
Dump Energy 600,831 173,148 -247%
13
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
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Observations
Increasing load by 10% by area has the following effects:
• Gas, coal, and combined cycle generation primarily serves the increased demand
• Some minor changes in path congestion
• The increase did not cause any unserved load
• Revenues & costs increased
14
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L