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PC21 Additional Wind Study Case Report
Bhavana Katyal
Apr 12, 2017
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
PC21 Additional Wind Modeling Logic
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Scope
• Scope• Key Questions
Assumptions
• Additional wind resources either
NM or WY• Energy gateway
west not modeled
Results
• Generation Change
• Utilization • Path Flows
Production Cost Model
PC21 Additional Wind Study
Purpose
To study the impact of adding wind generation in high quality wind generation areas assuming no new transmission is built.
These study cases were derived from the 2026 Common Case version 1.7.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
PC21 Additional Wind Study
• Study Requestor: SDG&E
• Changes from 2026CC:
– Addition of wind resources
– No new transmission
– Energy gateway west not modeled
• Key Questions:
– How does the system respond to increase in wind generation?• Generation changes and Production cost changes
• Utilization/congestion impacts
• Path Flows
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
PC21 Additional Wind Study5
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
• Two Studies:
– New Mexico : 3 increments of total 3000 MW (500 MW, 1000 MW, 1500 MW)
– Wyoming : 3 increments of total 3000 MW (500 MW, 1000 MW, 1500 MW)
PC21: NM - Annual Generation6
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
Annual Generation (GWh) by Category
2026 WECC V1.7 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 NM1 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 NM2 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 NM3
PC21: NM - Annual Generation7
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
WECC Annual Generation by Category (MWh)
Category 2026 WECC V1.72026 WECC V1.7
PC21 NM12026 WECC V1.7
PC21 NM22026 WECC V1.7
PC21 NM3Difference
NM3 & V1.7
Conventional Hydro 240,765,431 240,765,381 240,765,362 240,765,307 (124)
Energy Storage 3,056,573 3,022,390 3,001,566 3,036,481 (20,093)
Steam - Coal 185,569,748 185,148,241 184,117,473 183,423,713 (2,146,035)
Steam - Other 2,003,621 2,001,313 1,988,780 1,994,168 (9,453)
Nuclear 39,192,186 39,192,186 39,192,186 39,192,186 0
Combined Cycle 286,149,951 285,218,714 283,676,457 281,859,414 (4,290,537)
Combustion Turbine 39,538,412 39,574,758 39,437,965 39,305,040 (233,371)
IC 1,166,847 1,153,368 1,147,526 1,139,353 (27,494)
Other 0 0 0 0 0
DG/DR/EE - Incremental 30,439,596 30,439,596 30,439,596 30,439,596 0
Biomass RPS 21,438,455 21,420,871 21,396,758 21,379,726 (58,729)
Geothermal 31,370,036 31,357,865 31,347,204 31,342,039 (27,997)
Small Hydro RPS 3,744,125 3,744,119 3,744,098 3,744,095 (30)
Solar 42,378,029 42,353,788 42,311,836 42,285,617 (92,412)
Wind 72,397,285 74,118,477 76,905,180 79,586,532 7,189,247
== Total == 999,210,294 999,511,067 999,471,986 999,493,267 282,974
Other Results 0
Var. Prod. Cost (M$) 17,838 17,798 17,709 17,616 (222)
CO2 Cost (M$) 2,386 2,384 2,379 2,375 (11)
CO2 Amount (MMetrTn) 319 318 317 315 (4)
Dump Energy (MWh) 385,264 507,702 1,194,526 3,561,577 3,176,313
Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh) 11,993,398 11,951,063 11,926,534 11,967,246 (26,152)
Exports (MWh) 0 0 0 0 0
PC21: NM Area Map8
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
PC21: Spillage - NM 9
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
New Mexico
Bus Name Bus #Generator Size (MW) Tot Gen (MWh)
Capacity Factor
Spillage (MWh)
Stage 1 Guadalupe Substation 10116 333 1,149,758 0.39
Amrad Substation 11010 167 576,605 0.39
Stage 2 Guadalupe Substation 10116 333 1,149,758 0.39
667 2,301,743 0.39 1,226
Amrad Substation 11010 167 576,605 0.39333 1,149,698 0.39 61
Stage 3 Guadalupe Substation 10116 333 1,149,758 0.39
667 2,297,216 0.39 5,7531000 1,717,261 0.196 1,735,466
Amrad Substation 11010 167 576,605 0.39333 1,149,738 0.39 20500 1,718,417 0.39 7,947
PC21: NM- Annual Energy Share by Fuel10
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
(6,000) (4,000) (2,000) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
Annual Energy Difference (GWh): 2026 WECC V1.7 vs 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 NM3
PC21: NM- Change in Energy by State11
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Alberta
British Columbia
Basin
California/MX
Desert Southwest
Northwest
Rocky Mountain
Change (GWh) by Subregion - 2026 WECC V1.7 vs. 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 NM3
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
Biomass RPS
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
PC21: NM - Change in Energy by Region12
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Alberta
British Columbia
Basin
California/MX
Desert Southwest
Northwest
Rocky Mountain
Change (GWh) by Subregion - 2026 WECC V1.7 vs. 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 NM3
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
Biomass RPS
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
PC21: WY - Annual Generation13
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
Annual Generation (GWh) by Category
2026 WECC V1.7 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 WY1 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 WY2 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 WY3
PC21: WY - Annual Generation14
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
WECC Annual Generation by Category (MWh)
Category 2026 WECC V1.72026 WECC V1.7
PC21 WY12026 WECC V1.7
PC21 WY22026 WECC V1.7
PC21 WY3Difference
WY33 & V1.7
Conventional Hydro 240,765,431 240,765,399 240,765,351 240,765,338 (92)
Energy Storage 3,056,573 3,038,955 3,050,314 3,031,427 (25,147)
Steam - Coal 185,569,748 185,077,976 183,605,388 181,418,853 (4,150,895)
Steam - Other 2,003,621 2,000,605 1,994,657 1,979,110 (24,511)
Nuclear 39,192,186 39,192,186 39,192,186 39,192,186 0
Combined Cycle 286,149,951 285,515,844 284,316,564 283,487,135 (2,662,816)
Combustion Turbine 39,538,412 39,557,669 39,481,369 39,377,948 (160,464)
IC 1,166,847 1,140,252 1,122,227 1,097,881 (68,966)
Other 0 0 0 0 0
DG/DR/EE - Incremental 30,439,596 30,439,596 30,439,596 30,439,596 0
Biomass RPS 21,438,455 21,424,923 21,421,697 21,403,478 (34,977)
Geothermal 31,370,036 31,362,712 31,359,495 31,361,467 (8,569)
Small Hydro RPS 3,744,125 3,744,118 3,744,113 3,744,136 11
Solar 42,378,029 42,351,385 42,349,355 42,342,964 (35,064)
Wind 72,397,285 73,912,646 76,808,847 80,003,230 7,605,945
== Total == 999,210,294 999,524,265 999,651,160 999,644,748 434,454
Other Results 0
Var. Prod. Cost (M$) 17,838 17,801 17,713 17,638 (200)
CO2 Cost (M$) 2,386 2,382 2,377 2,373 (13)
CO2 Amount (MMetrTn) 319 318 316 314 (5)
Dump Energy (MWh) 385,264 347,859 664,711 1,999,299 1,614,035
Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh) 11,993,398 11,971,841 11,990,666 11,966,306 (27,092)
Exports (MWh) 0 0 0 0 0
PC21: WY Area Map15
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
PC21: Spillage - WY 16
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Wyoming
Bus Name Bus #Generator Size
(MW) Tot Gen (MWh)Capacity
FactorSpillage (MWh)
Stage 1Latham Substation 67499 250 759,062 0.35 51
Laramie River Station 73108 250 759,113 0.35
Stage 2Latham Substation 67499 250 758,942 0.35 171
500 1,380,578 0.32 137,648
Laramie River Station 73108 250 759,113 0.35
500 1,518,226 0.35
Stage 3Latham Substation 67499 250 758,479 0.35 634
500 1,383,218 0.32 135,007
750 930,747 0.142 1,346,592
Laramie River Station 73108 250 759,113 0.347
500 1,518,226 0.347
750 2,267,008 0.345 10,331
PC11: WY- Annual Energy Share by Fuel17
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
(6,000) (4,000) (2,000) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
Annual Energy Difference (GWh): 2026 WECC V1.7 vs 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 WY3
PC21: WY- Change in Energy by State18
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
AB AZ BC CA CO ID MT MX NE NM NV OR SD TX UT WA WY
Annual Gen Change (GWh) 2026 WECC V1.7 vs 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 WY3
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
Biomass RPS
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
PC21: WY Change in Energy by Region19
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Alberta
British Columbia
Basin
California/MX
Desert Southwest
Northwest
Rocky Mountain
Change (GWh) by Subregion - 2026 WECC V1.7 vs. 2026 WECC V1.7 PC21 WY3
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
Biomass RPS
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
PC21: Utilization Ratings20
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
• Congestion vs Utilization– Some lines are designed to be congested
• “Most Heavily Utilized” = A path that meets any one of the following criterion (10-year plan utilization screening):– U75 > 50%
– U90 > 20%
– U99 > 5%
• Uxx = % of year that flow is greater than xx% of the path limit
Path Utilization – CC 2026 V 1.721
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Select Name 75% Limit 90% Limit 99% Limit
8 P08 Montana to Northwest 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 P15 Midway-LosBanos 1.00% 0.03% 0.00%
16 P16 Idaho-Sierra 1.00% 0.05% 0.02%
17 P17 Borah West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 P19 Bridger West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
26 P26 Northern-Southern California 2.41% 1.15% 0.73%
27 P27 Intermountain Power Project DC Line 0.73% 0.00% 0.00%
31 P31 TOT 2A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
36 P36 TOT 3 14.69% 2.10% 0.46%
37 P37 TOT 4A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
38 P38 TOT 4B 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
39 P39 TOT 5 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
46 P46 West of Colorado River (WOR) 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
47 P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1) 1.66% 0.22% 0.01%
48 P48 Northern New Mexico (NM2) 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
49 P49 East of Colorado River (EOR) 0.16% 0.00% 0.00%
66 P66 COI 5.22% 1.78% 0.00%
Path Utilization –NM322
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Path # Name 75% Limit 90% Limit 99% Limit
8 P08 Montana to Northwest 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 P15 Midway-LosBanos 1.27% 0.05% 0.01%
16 P16 Idaho-Sierra 0.49% 0.03% 0.00%
17 P17 Borah West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 P19 Bridger West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
26 P26 Northern-Southern California 2.80% 1.43% 0.98%
27P27 Intermountain Power Project DC Line 0.70% 0.01% 0.00%
31 P31 TOT 2A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
36 P36 TOT 3 29.92% 4.49% 0.96%
37 P37 TOT 4A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
38 P38 TOT 4B 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
39 P39 TOT 5 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
46 P46 West of Colorado River (WOR) 0.19% 0.00% 0.00%
47 P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1) 0.63% 0.03% 0.00%
48 P48 Northern New Mexico (NM2) 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
49 P49 East of Colorado River (EOR) 0.27% 0.00% 0.00%
66 P66 COI 5.11% 1.59% 0.00%
Branch Utilization – New Mexico23
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Case: NM3
BranchBranch Name Branch Rating (MW) 99% Limit 90% Limit 75% Limit
65105_67530_1 BAR-X_ECHOSPRG_1 425 0.00 0.00 0.0065420_73107_1 DAVEJOHN_LAR.RIVR_1 319 0.00 0.40 1.1466240_67499_1 PLATTE_LATHAM_1 424 0.00 0.00 0.0067499_67530_1 LATHAM_ECHOSPRG_1 424 0.00 0.00 0.0010025_10116_1 B-A_GUADLUPE_1 1076 0.00 45.78 51.0510292_10390_1 SAN_JUAN_RIOPUERC_1 1004 0.00 0.00 0.0010390_10025_2 RIOPUERC_B-A_2 1004 0.00 0.00 0.0010390_10369_1 RIOPUERC_WESTMESA_1 1076 0.00 0.00 0.0010390_10369_2 RIOPUERC_WESTMESA_2 1195.1 0.00 0.00 0.0010369_10370_1 WESTMESA_WESTMS_1_1 448 0.00 0.00 0.0010369_10371_1 WESTMESA_WESTMS_2_1 448 0.00 0.00 0.0014211_10248_1 FOURCORN_PILLAR_1 402 0.00 0.00 0.0010011_10368_1 AMBROSIA_WESTMESA_1 402 0.00 0.00 0.00
Case: NM2
BranchBranch Name Branch Rating (MW) 99% Limit 90% Limit 75% Limit
10025_10116_1 B-A_GUADLUPE_1 1076 0.00 27.98 36.27
Case: NM1
BranchBranch Name Branch Rating (MW) 99% Limit 90% Limit 75% Limit
10025_10116_1 B-A_GUADLUPE_1 1076 0.00 0.32 10.22
Path Utilization – WY324
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Path# Name 75% Limit 90% Limit 99% Limit
8 P08 Montana to Northwest 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 P15 Midway-LosBanos 1.20% 0.07% 0.02%
16 P16 Idaho-Sierra 0.50% 0.05% 0.01%
17 P17 Borah West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 P19 Bridger West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
26 P26 Northern-Southern California 2.66% 1.15% 0.82%
27 P27 Intermountain Power Project DC Line 1.20% 0.15% 0.01%
31 P31 TOT 2A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
36 P36 TOT 3 64.55% 45.78% 37.88%
37 P37 TOT 4A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
38 P38 TOT 4B 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
39 P39 TOT 5 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
46 P46 West of Colorado River (WOR) 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
47 P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1) 1.84% 0.32% 0.05%
48 P48 Northern New Mexico (NM2) 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
49 P49 East of Colorado River (EOR) 0.16% 0.00% 0.00%
66 P66 COI 5.80% 1.96% 0.00%
Path Utilization – WY125
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Path# Name 75% Limit 90% Limit 99% Limit
8 P08 Montana to Northwest 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 P15 Midway-LosBanos 1.16% 0.05% 0.01%
16 P16 Idaho-Sierra 0.59% 0.06% 0.02%
17 P17 Borah West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 P19 Bridger West 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
26 P26 Northern-Southern California 2.67% 1.18% 0.88%
27 P27 Intermountain Power Project DC Line 1.02% 0.10% 0.02%
31 P31 TOT 2A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
36 P36 TOT 3 56.55% 32.41% 21.59%
37 P37 TOT 4A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
38 P38 TOT 4B 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
39 P39 TOT 5 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
46 P46 West of Colorado River (WOR) 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
47 P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1) 1.83% 0.34% 0.03%
48 P48 Northern New Mexico (NM2) 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
49 P49 East of Colorado River (EOR) 0.16% 0.00% 0.00%
66 P66 COI 5.40% 1.85% 0.00%
Branch Utilization – Wyoming26
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Case: WY3
Branch Branch Name Branch Rating (MW) 99% Limit 90% Limit 75% Limit65105_67530_1 BAR-X_ECHOSPRG_1 425 31.67 38.58 46.0465420_73107_1 DAVEJOHN_LAR.RIVR_1 319 0.00 0.19 0.8066240_67499_1 PLATTE_LATHAM_1 424 0.00 0.00 0.0067499_67530_1 LATHAM_ECHOSPRG_1 424 31.99 39.16 46.5610025_10116_1 B-A_GUADLUPE_1 1076 0.00 0.00 0.0010292_10390_1 SAN_JUAN_RIOPUERC_1 1004 0.00 0.00 0.0010390_10025_2 RIOPUERC_B-A_2 1004 0.00 0.00 0.0010390_10369_1 RIOPUERC_WESTMESA_1 1076 0.00 0.00 0.0010390_10369_2 RIOPUERC_WESTMESA_2 1195.1 0.00 0.00 0.0010369_10370_1 WESTMESA_WESTMS_1_1 448 0.00 0.00 0.0010369_10371_1 WESTMESA_WESTMS_2_1 448 0.00 0.00 0.0014211_10248_1 FOURCORN_PILLAR_1 402 0.00 0.00 0.0010011_10368_1 AMBROSIA_WESTMESA_1 402 0.00 0.00 0.00
Case: WY2
Branch Branch Name Branch Rating (MW) 99% Limit 90% Limit 75% Limit65105_67530_1 BAR-X_ECHOSPRG_1 425 15.39 20.08 28.8067499_67530_1 LATHAM_ECHOSPRG_1 424 15.89 20.73 29.61
Case: WY1
Branch Branch Name Branch Rating (MW) 99% Limit 90% Limit 75% Limit65105_67530_1 BAR-X_ECHOSPRG_1 425 0.00 0.00 0.0367499_67530_1 LATHAM_ECHOSPRG_1 424 0.00 0.00 0.15
PC21: Observations
• Additional wind resources replaces coal & gas fired generation.
• Small decrease in CO2 emissions and cost production cost by increasing wind resources.
• Existing transmission in NM & WY is not adequate to support significant increases in wind generation.
• Congestion was observed to be more on some of heavily utilized paths and some transmission branches.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Questions? And Contact Information:
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Bhavana Katyal(801) [email protected]