1. Heres a scenario for you Effectively address risk by using scenariosPaul TeichTech Industry Analyst

2. @PCAustin#PCATX@paulrteichwww.linkedin.com/in/paulteichwww.facebook.com/paul.teich 3. Scenarios: future market contextScenarios are a self-consistent set of stories aboutplausible futures - they highlight future uncertaintyScenarios are notScenarios are notstrategy predictions They createDo not expect context for that any singlestrategy scenario will be correct or Metaphor: flying the future aircraft designsthrough variousCant assignwind tunnelprobabilities configurations 40+ years of Scenario Planning best practices 4. Uncertainty and scenarios frame strategy Scenarios are a consistent framework to encourage constructive dialog They open the aperture for stakeholders to consider alternatives they would otherwise dismiss without thinking critically about them How will you differentiate ourselves in each scenario? 5. Uncertainty defines scenariosWhat is it we want toknow about our future?Bound our scope andmarket windowsDo the homeworkLook for uncertainty 6. What is uncertain about a future? Structuring future scenarios andacknowledging riskPick pairs of uncertaintiesPlay with themSettle on uncertainties that bestillustrate potential risk andpotential rewardWrite a set of scenarios that talk tohow the uncertainties mightresolve themselves 7. Scenario planning processCore TeamLarger Group Create planning question Brainstorming #1 Beliefs (scope) and prompts for I believe Diverge Topical investigations and Brainstorming #2 Assertions create prompts forWe believeConvergeScenario structure and high-Brainstorming #3 Dynamicslevel dynamicsReview/critique structure andbrainstorm scenario dynamicsDraft scenariosConsistency and completenesscheckingStrategic planning simulations, publication, etc. 8. Scenario deliverablesDifferentiating structure based on Structurecritical uncertainties and events Scenario A description of our market or industryDescriptionsin each alternate future Platform Describe dominant design featuresDescriptionsin each futureEvents that determine which scenarioGuidepostsfeatures are evolving 9. Client scenario map 2002UncertaintiesScenariosPrivacy, Security,Software Performance Drivers3G Internet and OwnershipFlat-Lined No interoperable standards emerge; No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use point solutions exist for every service.breakthroughs made.Islands of Utilityx86 NirvanaNew PC software performance drivers have emerged. The telecom industry Because the drivers are not yet evident and beyond our ability to and ISPs fail to deliver predict accurately, we assume the following: The consumer driver is wide-area high-speed related to integration with entertainment and other home systems data services. by 2006 it unifies and simplifies consumer control over life at home and enhances the consumer entertainment experience by providing easy means to find and retrieve content wherever it resides (on the PC, An interoperablein consumer electronics devices, over the Web, etc.). The commercial PSO solutiondriver is related to collaboration by 2005 it increases team achievesproductivity within organizations and across the extended enterprise.ARMy ofsignificant market No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use The telecom industryDarkness penetration. breakthroughs made for the PC. Incremental user interface succeeds in creating breakthroughs occurred in mobile Internet usage, creating greaterboth infrastructure and utility for much of the market. Web services provide a softwaredemand for 3G Internet applications framework independent of handheld architecture or OS.services, pushing the Collaboration is an enterprise killer app, as in x86 Nirvana, but it applies to mobile devices and is not a PC utility driver. By 2005 mobilefocus of computing to collaboration increases team productivity within organizations and an anytime, anywhere across the extended enterprise.model. 10. Client scenario map 2002 UncertaintiesScenariosPrivacy, Security, Software Performance Drivers3G Internet and OwnershipFlat-Lined No interoperable standards emerge;No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-useApple created the content point solutions existstore and app ecosystem for every service. breakthroughs made.Islands of Utilityx86 Nirvana One 4yr scenario became The telecom industry generallyNew PC software performance drivers have emerged.Because the drivers are not yet evident and beyond our ability toand ISPs fail to delivertrue 8 years later high-speedpredict accurately, we assume the following: The consumer driver iswide-arearelated to integration with entertainment and other home systems data services.this is as close to a win as it gets!by 2006 it unifies and simplifies consumer control over life at homeand enhances the consumer entertainment experience by providingeasy means to find and retrieve content wherever it resides (on the PC, An interoperable in consumer electronics devices, over the Web, etc.). The commercial PSO solution driver is related to collaboration by 2005 it increases team achieves productivity within organizations and across the extended enterprise. significant market No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-useThe telecom industryARMy ofpenetration. breakthroughs made for the PC. Incremental user interfacesucceeds in creatingDarknessbreakthroughs occurred in mobile Internet usage, creating greaterboth infrastructure andutility for much of the market. Web services provide a softwaredemand for 3G Internetapplications framework independent of handheld architecture or OS. services, pushing theCollaboration is an enterprise killer app, as in x86 Nirvana, but itapplies to mobile devices and is not a PC utility driver. By 2005 mobile focus of computing tocollaboration increases team productivity within organizations and an anytime, anywhereacross the extended enterprise.model. 11. Client scenario map 2009Kinda missed services Locality LocalHosted End-to-End Apps ThundercloudUser Experience (New Apps)(New Apps)Non-PC PC-Based TodayHosted ClientWindows and (New Apps) (Good Enough)Mac Enterprise Created this as bridge to next 12. Server scenario map 2009 Kinda missed servicesScalability Specific Applications General Purpose HostedCloud ExperienceApplication Focus ClientExperience Hardware+ Hyper-Scale (Today) Business 13. DiscussionThanks!