pci jan13 report final.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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7/29/2019 pci jan13 report final.pdf
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january 2013PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX
GErManyCOnSTruCTIOnInDEX*
auSTralIan
pCI
uKCOnSTru
CTIOnInDEX*
IrElanDCO
nSTruCTIOnInDEX*
KEy FInDInGS The dwntrn in the natina cnstrctin indstry cntined in
Janary. Bth activity and new rders cntracted at steeper rates,
nwinding sme the imprvement in indstry cnditins witnessedin ate 2012.
The seasnay adjsted Astraian Indstry Grp/ Hsing IndstryAssciatin Astraian Perrmance Cnstrctin Index (AustralianPCI ) decined by 2.6 pints in Janary t 36.2. The index has nw
remained bew the critica 50 pints eve (that separates expansin
rm cntractin) r 32 cnsective mnths. Reecting the dampening inence aing new rders, a majr
sb-sectrs experienced cntractins in activity in Janary. Hse
biding was the weakest perrming sectr (despite a swer pace decine in activity), whie the apartment and cmmercia cnstrctin
sectrs cntracted at steeper rates dring the mnth. Engineering
cnstrctin decined at a rate that was brady nchanged rmDecember 2012.
Mst bsinesses inked the nging decine in activity t pr market
demand, citing imited pprtnities t tender r new wrk andprject deays. Diicties in btaining inance and weak cnsmer
and investr sentiment had as cntribted t a ack new bsiness.
COnSTruCTIOn aCTIvITy anD CapaCITy In seasnay adjsted terms, the activity sb-index registered 37.7
in Janary.
This was 1.9 pints bew the eve in the previs mnth, indicating
a steeper rate cntractin in tta indstry activity. Weaker demand cnditins drve decines in activity n a brad
indstry rnt. Cnsistent with this, the rate capacity tiisatin e rm 67.3% in
December 2012 t 65.8%.
aCTIvITy by SECTOr Hse biding cnditins remain sbded. Hwever, the sectrs
activity sb-index increased by 1.4 pints t 36.1 in Janary t signa a
sighty swer rate cntractin. Apartment biding activity was weaker with the sb-index decining
by 1.2 pints in Janary t 38.9.
Cmmercia cnstrctin cntracted at a steeper rate ater exhibiting antabe easing in the previs mnth. The sectrs sb-index decined
by 6.1 pints t 40.1 driven by a sharper decine in new rders.
The engineering cnstrctin sb-index was brady nchangedincreasing by 0.2 pints t 38.7.
*Prepared by Markit Ecnmics
DOwnTurn In COnSTruCTIOn COnTInuESIn january
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
July12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
DiffusionIndex
Increasin
g
Decreasing
Australian PCI 3 month moving average
FEBMAR
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
JAN
FEBMAR
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
DEC
FEBMAR
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
DEC
FEBMAR
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
DEC
36.2
DEC
48.7
NOV
43.3
NOV
43.0
NOV
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
DiffusionIndex
CapacityUtilisation%(unadjusted)
Activity
CapacityUtilisation
60
65
70
75
80
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Apr
11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul
11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar
12
Apr
12
May
12
Jun
12
July
12
Aug
12
Sep
12
Oct
12
Nov
12
Dec
12
Jan
13
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
July12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
Houses Apartments Commercial Engineering
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Diffusion
Index
Increasing
Decreasing
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Spprted by:
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7/29/2019 pci jan13 report final.pdf
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whaT IS ThEauSTralIan pCI?
The Astraian Indstry GrpPerrmance CnstrctinIndex (Australian PCI) incnjnctin with the HsingIndstry Assciatin is aseasnay adjsted natinacmpsite index based n thedisin indexes r activity,rders/new bsiness, deiveriesand empyment with varying
weights. An Australian PCIreading abve 50 pints
indicates cnstrctin activityis generay expanding; bew50, that it is decining. Thedistance rm 50 is indicative the strength the expansinr decine.
Mre inrmatin can bebtained rm the Ai Grp
website www.aigrp.cm.a
COnTaCT
Peter Burn
Directr Pbic PicyAi GrpTe 02 9466 5503
Harley DaleHIAChie EcnmistTe 02 6345 1329
Markit Ecnmics
www.markiteconomics.com
The Australian IndustryGroup, 2013
This pbicatin is cpyright.Apart rm any air deaing rthe prpses private stdyr research permitted nderappicabe cpyright egisatin,n part may be reprdced byany prcess r means withtthe prir written permissin The Astraian Indstry Grp.
Disclaimer The AstraianIndstry Grp prvidesinrmatin services t itsmembers and thers, whichincde ecnmic and indstrypicy and recasting services.Nne the inrmatinprvided here is represented rimpied t be ega, accnting,
fnancia r investment adviceand des nt cnstittefnancia prdct advice. TheAstraian Indstry Grpdes nt invite and des ntexpect any persn t act rrey n any statement, pinin,representatin r intererenceexpressed r impied in thispbicatin. The AstraianIndstry Grp has cmpiedthis inrmatin in cnjnctinwith inrmatin prvided byHIA. A readers mst maketheir wn enqiries andbtain their wn pressinaadvice in reatin t any isser matter reerred t herein
bere making any fnancia rther decisin. The AstraianIndstry Grp accepts nrespnsibiity r any act rmissin by any persn reyingin whe r in part pn thecntents this pbicatin.
*Prepared by Markit Ecnmics
AIG12601
nEw OrDErS anD DElIvErIES New rders (seasnay adjsted) cntracted in Janary r the 32nd
cnsective mnth. Mrever, the rate decine was sharper with the new rders
index decreasing by 5.6 pints t 37.0. A r brad indstry sectrs registered mre prnnced rates
decine in new rders with the steepest mnth-n-mnth as
recrded in the apartment and cmmercia cnstrctin sectrs. Sbded demand and wer wrkads rested in a rther
cntractin in deiveries inpts rm sppiers. The sppier
deivery index decined by 0.9 pints in Janary t 36.6.
nEw OrDErS by SECTOr New rders in the hse biding sectr decined at a steeper rate
with the sb-index aing by 1.3 pints in Janary t 32.6. In cmmercia cnstrctin, the new rders sb-index e by 10.9
pints t 39.4 wing a marked easing in the rate cntractin
in the previs mnth. Fr the engineering cnstrctin sectr, the cntractin in new
rders was as steeper with the sb-index decining by 2.0 pints
t 42.8. The deayed timing prjects and sggish gvernmentnded inrastrctre spending were cited as impacting negativey
n the ptake wrk.
In the apartment sectr, the new rders sb-index decinedmarkedy by 16.7 pints t 26.4, the sharpest rate cntractin in
ive mnths.
EMplOyMEnT anD waGES Empyment cntracted at a steeper rate r the secnd
cnsective mnth. The empyment sb-index registered 33.3 in Janary, a a 0.7
pints rm the previs mnth.
Where empyment eves e, reprts indicate that this was in inewith decreasing wrkads and erts t redce csts.
Grwth in wages cntined in Janary, athgh at a swer rate,
with the wages sb-index aing by 4.1 pints t 54.5.
npuT COSTS anD SEllInG prICES Inpt price inatin mderated in Janary. The inpt csts sb-index
registered 63.5, a decine 5.3 pints rm the previs mnth. Seing prices decined r the 27th cnsective mnth, highighting
the strng cmpetitin r avaiabe wrk that persists acrss the
indstry. Despite the cntined decine in seing prices, the rate
cntractin eased in the mnth with the sb-index rising by 3.7
pints t 39.7.
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Spprted by:
auSTralIan pCI*January 2013 December 2012 Monthly Change Direction Rate of Change Trend ** (Months)
auSTralIan pCI 36.2 38.8 -2.6 Contracting Faster 32
aCTIvITy 37.7 39.6 -1.9 Contracting Faster 33
HouSES 36.1 34.7 +1.4 Contracting Slower 32
APARTMENTS 38.9 40.1 -1.2 Contracting Faster 33
CoMMERCIAl 40.1 46.2 -6.1 Contracting Faster 31
ENGINEERING 38.7 38.5 +0.2 Contracting Slower 13
nEw OrDErS 37.0 42.6 -5.6 Contracting Faster 32
EMplOyMEnT 33.3 34.0 -0.7 Contracting Faster 32
DElIvErIES 36.6 37.5 -0.9 Contracting Faster 30
npuT prICES 63.5 68.8 -5.3 Expanding Slower 89
SEllInG prICES 39.7 36.0 +3.7 Contracting Slower 27
waGES 54.5 58.6 -4.1 Expanding Slower 46
apaCITy(%) 65.8 67.3 -1.5 % points Lower na na
Results are based on a sample of approximately 150 companies. New monthly seasonal adjustment factors were applied in April 2012.* Number of months moving in current direction
20
30
40
50
60
70
DiffusionIndex
Increasing
Decreasing
New Orders Deliveries
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
July12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
July12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
Houses Apartments Commercial Engineering
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Diffusion
Index
Increasing
Decreasing
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
DiffusionIndex
Increasing
Decreasing
Employment
Average Wages
Jan11
Feb11
Ma
r11
Ap
r11
May11
Jun11
Ju
l11
Aug11
Sep11
Oc
t11
Nov11
De
c11
Jan12
Feb12
Ma
r12
Ap
r12
May12
Jun12
July12
Aug12
Sep12
Oc
t12
Nov12
De
c12
Jan13
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Increasing
Decreasing
Inpu t P rice s Ave rag e S ellin g p rice s
DiffusionIndex
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
July12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13