a global perspective on the future of diesel engines and...

A Global Perspective on the Future of Diesel Engines and other Advanced

Propulsion OptionsTim Johnson

May 31, 2017UM Ann Arbor

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Environmental Technologies © Corning Incorporated 2

Summary• Regulations drive technology

– Criteria pollutant regulations are near almost down to zero emissions– GHG reductions are just starting– PEV (BEV and PHEV) mandates are weak in the US, but quite aggressive in China

(and maybe India)• Engine technologies – LD needs ~40% reductions by 2025 (EU) to 2030 (US)

• Gasoline engine technologies are developing that will drop CO2 up to 20-25% at ~$40-50 per percent reduction

• New diesel platforms might drop CO2 by 20% at a cost of $80 per percent. Emerging engine (2SOP) is at -35% CO2

• Mild hybridization can drop CO2 by an additional 10-30% at ~$40-$50 per percent • HD proposals for 55% BTE

• EVs have a very diverse outlook. 2% to 7% penetration in 2025. Ramping in 2030.– It seems a battery breakthrough is needed.

• NOx control• LD control with multiple components. Quite effective.• New SCR catalyst durable to 900C. Similar in performance to best today.• HD low NOx systems tested. Indications down to 20-30 mg/bhp-hr NOx

• There are alternative low-carbon transportation pathways

Regulations


Current diesel emissions limits require similar technologies. We could see another round of tightening around the world as LEVIII is implemented.

• Durability Requirements:– China 5 160,000 km– Euro 6: 160,000 km– Japan: 80,000 km– Korea: 192,000 km– China 6 200,000 km– US: 192,000 km– LEVIII, T3:240,000 km

Emis

sion

Lim

its, m

g/km

No adjustments for test cycle differences.


About 50% NMHC+NOx reductions from US LDDs are needed to meet the new Tier 3 requirements of 30 mg/mi NMHC+NOx. Running about 90% cycle average deNOx now, need 95%.

Bosch SAE Congress 2016

Note: Euro 6 levels are 144 mg/km NMHC and 128 mg/km NOx

30 mg/km or 38% of Euro 6


New Euro 6 LDD NOx is creeping up ahead of the RDE implementation date. Best LDDs equivalent to gasoline.

Emissions Analytics, BIS RDE Conf 4-17

• Average EF now ~7 • Rising since 2015, back almost to

Euro 5 peaks• Despite prospect of Real Driving

Emissions• Growing variability• Use of thermal management and hot

re-start strategies?• Beating first phase of RDE in 2017?

• Average Euro 6 diesel 13 times average gasoline car

• But cleanest diesels (5% percentile) are as clean as the average gasoline

• Has been the case for almost 2 years

• Not being able to discriminate within Euro 6 is significant market failure

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 18/08/2016 06/03/2017

Real

-wor

ld N

Ox (

g/km

)

Top 10% E6 LDD

Top 5% E6 LDD

Avg E6 LDD

Avg E6 gasoline


GHG reduction plan is requiring 80% reductions from transportation sector by 2050. Full deployment of ZEVs by 2035.

DOE Calif Mobility Conf 11-16

Transp is ~35% of total (largest)


http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/improving-conversions-between-passenger-vehicle-efficiency-standards

Required CO2 Reductions, 2017 to 2020• Japan: -2%• Europe: -15%• US: -12% • China: -17%

Major LDV automotive markets are moving to ~100 g/km CO2.Nominally 15% reductions from today by 2020. (-40% to 2025 EU)


EPA cert data for paired vehicles from 2005 and 2015 are used to project future needed improvements. Rate of improvement in vehicle efficiency has to triple. Electrification is likely needed.

0.3%/yr

0.9%/yr

ORNL 2016-01-0909


Some real-world fuel efficiency data shows gasoline closing gap with diesel. Downsizing increases RDE vs. cert gap. EU diesel RDE gap vs. cert increasing, worse than gasoline. HEV RDE better than US cert.

EU real world gasoline closing gap with LDD (2015: 12% FC difference). Downsizing increases EU RDE vs. cert MPG gap.

EU MPG gap real v. cert

US MPG gap real v. cert

Emissions Analytics, Integer Conf 10-16


Real world fuel consumption values show gasoline HEVs at parity in EU with LDD and far ahead of US LDDs.

www.EmissionsAnalytics.com 12/16

EU gasoline HEV highway fuel economy is close to parity with EU LDDs.

US gasoline HEV combined fuel economy exceeds EU gasoline HEVs and is much better than US LDDs. US LDD penetration will be limited.

http://www.emissionsanalytics.com/


China and CARB have the only two meaningful EV mandates. 2025: ~20% in China, and ~8% in California and S177 states

• Quotas proposed by the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology would require electric cars to account for 8 percent of new-car sales by 2018, and 12 percent by 2020.

• MIIT looking at automotive long term roadmap– Energy security and promoting industry– NEV (PHEV and BEV) mandate after credits (proposed)

• 7% in 2020, 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030– Mandate will give Chinese OEMs opportunity to leapfrog established players on NEV

Estimate of total ZEV sales to meet CARB and the “177 States” ZEV mandate

~8% of CARB sales in 2025 will need to be ZEVs (2% of US)

CARB ACC Review, 1/17


EV emissions levels are quantified. EV CO2 not much better than a Prius, except on the coasts. Criteria pollutants are similar to LDDs.

CO2 Criteria Pollutants

Union Concerned Scientists, 2016


Regs summary

• Criteria pollutant regulations are near almost down to zero emissions.

– We may see one more round of LD tightening in California. – HD will go another 80-90% to catch-up to the last round of LD

• GHG reductions are just starting– Need 80% reductions for the in-use fleet by 2050– Need nominally 40% reduction from today by 2025 (EU) – 2030 (US)

• PEV (BEV and PHEV) mandates are weak in the US, but quite aggressive in China (and maybe India)

• The grid needs to be cleaned before PEVs will have a big impact on CO2 and pollution

Engines


LD CO2 reduction strategies are at various stages of development and effectiveness

CO2 Reduction Emissions Issues StatusGDI base, turbo, stoich 0 PN Implemented

Cylinder de-activation 5-8% - Implemented

Homogeneous Lean SI 5-10% Lean NOx Development

HEV (additive to others) 7-25% - Implemented

Downsize GDI, 18 →24 bar BMEP high CR, Miller stoic

10-15% PN Implementing

Lean-burn GDI 10-20% Lean NOx, PN Implementing

d- and c-EGR 15-20% Lower temperature Implementing

Water injection (additive to others)5-50% vs. fuel

4-15% HC increase, lower temperatures

Implemented

CR~17, S/B~1.5, c-EGR, 2-stage boost, stoich, Miller.

15-20% - Adv Engineering

CR~13, S/B=1.5, lean A/F~20, single stage boost

15-20% Lean NOx, HC Adv Engineering

GDCI 15-25% Lean NOx, LT HC Adv Engineering

Light-duty diesel 15-20% Lean NOx Implemented

GDI, Down Size (40%), mHEV, S Chrg, turb-comp

20-25% - Development

2-stroke opposed piston dies. or gasoli 25-35% Lean NOx, LT HC, CO Development


New estimates of cost of CO2 reductions are shown. Gasoline can improve relatively more than diesel, but diesel improvements are cheaper. Hybridization is needed.

Ricardo, Integer US, 10/15


ICCT Technology – Cost analysis for 2025 CO2 targetsPass. Cars: ~ $1000 over 2015 level

VVL, Dyn. Cyl. Deac.

Mild-hybrid (48V)

CO2 Reduction

Engine friction, Weight red., transmission, accessories

Stop-start

GDI, EGR, Atkinson

Incr

emen

tal V

ehic

le C

ost (

2015

$)

$16 / (%-CO2)

$33 / (%-CO2)

$75 / (%-CO2)

$200 / (%-CO2) ?

ICCT, March 2017

Reference: 4-cyl. In-line, 3500 lbs

X: Cost consumer will pay for 5 yr pay back period on trading up every 5 yrs. 12k miles/yr, $3/gal, 25% OEM margin

X X X

BEV: 75% CO2 reduction for $5750PHEV: -70% for same cost


Dyno cert data is used to analyze required propulsion system efficiency required to meet future GHG regs. ~35% PSE is needed to meet EU2021 and US2025 CO2 regs. HEVs are already there. LDD close

Propulsion System Efficiency:

FCA, Univ WI DERC, 6-15


Some real-world fuel efficiency data shows gasoline closing gap with diesel. Downsizing increases RDE vs. cert gap. EU diesel RDE gap vs. cert increasing, worse than gasoline. HEV RDE better than US cert.

EU real world gasoline closing gap with LDD (2015: 12% FC difference). Downsizing increases EU RDE vs. cert MPG gap.

EU MPG gap real v. cert

US MPG gap real v. cert

Emissions Analytics, Integer Conf 10-16


Mazda is targeting 25% improvement in ICE fuel efficiency for well-to-wheel CO2 equivalence with EVs

FE 5.2 4L/100km (59 mpg); ~ 25% improvement for CO2 ~ Mazda2 EV

Downsizing(3.7L V6 2.0L I4)

Reduced pumping losses & engine friction by 30% each

High CR and knock mitigation

Scavenging @ low rpm/high load and EGR @ high rpm/high load

Mazda, Adv. Clean Cars Symposium, 2016


Optimized dedicated-EGR engine achieves < 200 g/kWh and shows path to LEV-III emissionsD-EGR: Benefit of H2/CO reformate + EGR SWRI, 2016 HKPTC

BSFC < 200 g/kWh@ 1500 – 3500 rpm

Vehicle Testing (Buick Regal)

Ref. D-EGR

Fuel econ. City/Hwy (mpg)

24.5 / 43.6

27.7 / 47.6

NOx, FTP-75 (mg/mi) 0.013 0.002

HC, FTP-75 (mg/mi) 0.029 0.029

85% ↓

Optimized Engine PFI fast burn, low friction engineE0 gas, B/S ratio < 0.85, High CR ~ 13.6:1

9 – 13% ↑

Improvement possible with HC traps

35% fuel enrichment ≈ Increasing ON by 8 AK

Enables use of low octane fuel with lower

wells-to-wheel CO2


45% BTE on ~2.5 liter stoich gasoline engine. CR~17, S/B=1.5, MPI and DI, late IVC, 30% EGR, two-stage boost, strong ignition.

Model results. 45% BTE is possible at CR~17, 2.5 bar boost, and 30% EGR. Minimum-advance for Best Torque (MBT) used; 2000 RPM

Optimized 1-cyl engine

Swirl and spark are optimized

Multi-cylinder results

Honda, SAE 2015-01-1263


A lean gasoline prototype engine achieves 45% BTE. Long stroke (S/B=1.5), supercharged, MPI, A/F~20, 20% EGR, ~0.3 g/kW-hr NOx.

Toyota, SAE 2015-01-1896


GDCI* engine advanced targeting US Tier 3-Bin30 targetsHigh fuel economy, low CO, NOx but HC still challengeDelphi, 2016 DOE AMR, SAE Int. J. Engines, 9(2), 2016

Engine 1.8L, CR ~ 15:1

Fuel RON91 gasoline

Injection 400 bar GDI

Combustion Partially premixed, no spark plugs

After-treatment Only ox. cat, low-P EGR, exh. rebreathing at low loads

*Gasoline direct injection compression ignition

Low-T combustion ~150 – 300 °C colder exhaust

Reference L4 engine

GDCI

Vehicle Speed

Exha

ust T

empe

ratu

re

(deg

C)

BSFC @ 211–214 g/kWh over wide load range

Target: 200 g/kWh

BSF

C (g

/kW

h)

BMEP (kPa) HC Trap SCR

EGROx. Cat.

T/C

Urea

HC trap, low-T catalysts needed


Transient testing of opposed-piston 2-stroke diesel engine30 – 50% improvement in fuel consumption over conventional gas / diesels

HD-FTP cycle

Achates 4.9L OP

Conventional6.7L MY 2011

Rated P (kW) 205 242

CR 15.4:1 17.3:1

BSFC (g/kW-hr) 217.3 261.4

After-treatment

DOC+DPF+SCRSoot 0.056

NOx 4.3 g/kWhDPF + SCR

17% ↓

Ref: Achates, SAE 2016-01-1019, SAE LD Symp. 2017

Torq

ue (N

m)

Speed (rpm) Speed (rpm)

LD 2.25L Engine2.25L, in-line 3 cyl. (6 piston), 150 kW @

3600 rpm, 500 Nm @ 1600-2100 rpm

LA4 drive cycle CumminsAtlas

Achates2.25L OP

Fuel consumption (L/100 km) 8.81 6.89

NOx (g/km) 0.51 0.29

PM (g/km) 0.08 0.018

28% ↓

42% ↓

74% ↓

Next:LD truck engine development for 2018

- 270 hp, 650 NmCAFE 2025, Tier 3, LEV III, Euro 6Estimated CAFE 37 mpg (combined)50% more efficient than modern gas engines

MD 4.9L Engine


Ricardo updates Hyboost concept. Downsizing, supercharger, turbocompounding, BSG, ultracap. 93 g/km CO2; -33% vs GDI base. Adding 48V, Miller, SGDI enables additional 21% reduction (EU ~2030)

3-cyl 1 liter engine with CR=10:1, VVT, center DI, 95 RON; 140 HP, 99 g/km CO2

Ricardo, Integer US, 10/15

Supercharger improves low end torque. BSG helps torque assist and FC. Turbocompounder recharges system at cruise. BSG charges system on decel.


LDD compared to dHEV: -13% CO2 , -20% RDE NOx, -1.3 s 0-100 kph. €1000 upcharge. Room for dHEV cost reduction.

Diesel dHEVWeight, kg 2100 2200Engine, liter-kW 3 - 200 3 – 200Gearbox 8-sp AT 8-sp ATMotor, kW 60Battery, Li-ion 2 kW-hr

HEV dropped CO2 13% on WLTP and engine-out NOx 20% on all cycles

dHEV NOx → Cost reduction:1 stage boosting, Internal + cooled LP EGR, solenoidinjection system, reduced number of sensors, etc.

IAV, MinNOx 6-16


Costs of electrification are shown. 48 volt provides ~10% CO2reductions but at similar incremental $ per %

$40/%

$38/%

$40/%

$90/%

$20/%$16/%

Ricardo, Integer 10-15


Mild hybridization is a relatively cheap way to get incremental CO2 reductions. Diesel and PEV are similar (except EU)

Mid-range ICCT numbers

$80/%

$50/%

$80/%$76/% $57/% EU

(tailpipe=0)


LD engine outlook

• Recall we need ~40% CO2 reductions for 2025-30 GHG regs• Gasoline engine technologies are developing that will drop CO2 up

to 20-25% at ~$40-50 per percent reduction– Longer term (higher risk) compression ignition might see 25-35%

reductions. Risk reduced with hybridization.• New diesel platforms might drop CO2 by 20% at a cost of $80 per

percent.– New concepts (2-stroke opposed piston) can achieve up to 35%

reductions• Mild hybridization can drop CO2 by an additional 10-30% at ~$40-

$50 per percent • BEV incremental costs are roughly similar to diesel, but with much

greater CO2 reductions

Electric vehicles


Payback assumes gas price of $2.50/gallon, 26 MPG to 31 MPG in 2025, and 13,300 annual miles; electricity price $0.10/kWh, 0.33kWh/mile battery (sales-weighted average efficiency today); Assumes high volume in future years Assumes Electric Drive Costs market: $18/kW (market), lab: $11.50/kW (2016), $7/kW (2022), $6/kW (2025, $4/kW (2025+)

DOE sees price parity of BEV200 with conventional vehicles at $80/kWh battery costs. Charging time could be 5-10 minutes per 200 miles.

DOE Calif Mobility Conf 11-16


ICCT sees BEV200 at $6000 cost premium over 2025 ICE. Sticker price of BEV-200 could be $6000 ($80/kWh) to $8000 ($140/kWh) more than conventional vehicle in 2025.

It will cost ~$1000 for a conventional vehicle to meet the 2025 CO2 standards, vs a 2015 baseline. A 200 mile BEV will cost $7000 more than the baseline.

Assuming a 25% OEM margin, the sticker price difference will be $8000. For an $80/kWh battery, $5900.

EPA ICCTLow miles: 75 100Mid 100 125High 200 200

2025 BEV cost estimates, ICCT: $140/kWh battery

ICCT, 3/17

Costs are relative to the 2015 ICE baseline.


Assumption on BEV penetration range (80% likely) in 2025 varies from 2.7% to 7%

Some are predicting ~20% BEV penetration in 2025: some Wall Street and VCs, VW and Daimler targets, China mandate (PEV)


The conservative xEV forecasters have been the best. Roland Berger, AAB, and Avicenne. IIT and Deutsche Bank over-estimated 6X and 3X looking 4-5 yrs forward.

Avicenne, Cambridge EnerTech Conference, 3-17


In general, it takes ~20 yrs for an automotive technology to penetrate to 80% share after the first market introduction. Fuel consumption technologies are generally more stubborn.

Fuel-savings technology

Generally, FC technologies penetrate market slower than other automotive technologies. GDI is growing faster than all other vehicle technologies here. HEV slowest growth.

Hyundai, Integer Conf 10-16


0

20

40

60

80

100%

VW

ICE:

Stop/Start

Electric7

Toyota

ICE

5

BMW

2 2

CN OEMs

ICE

ICE: Stop/Start

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

26

Honda

3

PSA

2

ICE

ICE:

Stop/Start

7

Volvo

1

HMC

ICE

5

FCA

ICE

4

GM

ICE

5

Ford

ICE

5

Others

ICE

ICE: Stop/Start

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

18Total =

91.9

Daimler Renault/Nissan

Despite the aggressive BEV initiatives announced by some OEMs, hybrids and ICE Stop/Start are expected to dominate

BEV/HEV Adoption by OEM in 2025

M Vehicles*

Source: IHS Powertrain FCST, Feb’17

Note: * Market includes NA/EU/CH/JP/KR.• Stop/Start becomes the de-facto standard for ICEs by 2025

• Toyota to lead full hybridization with Honda, HMC, Volvo, GM and Ford following

• BMW and Daimler expected to pursue mild hybridization most aggressively

• VW is expected to lead the BEV segment with close to half a million BEVs in 2025


In moderate climates, upwards of 30% of total battery energy is taken up by cabin comfort.

Even in moderate climates, heating and AC can draw much electrical energy. At 10°C and 60 kph, 40% of battery traction power goes to heating cabin. In the summer moderate AC takes 8kW-hr, 40%.

MOT, HKIPT Conf, 10/15


Battery material have a range of scarcity. Mn, Co, rare earths could be problematic.

ANL, DOE AMR 2015


While BEVs have made significant progress over the last few years in cost and efficiency ...

Source: ‘Electrifying insights: How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability,’ Mckinsey (January, 2017)/ Corning analysis based on the same data

Model 2013 2017

Nissan Leaf

Range 75 Miles 208 Miles

Battery Capacity 24kWh 30kWh

Tesla Model S

Range 107 Miles 249 Miles

Battery Capacity 60kWh 75kWh

Average Battery Pack Price

$ pe

r KW

h

Improvement in Miles/kWhNissan Leaf

Tesla Model S

• Battery pack prices fell by ~ 80% from $1,000/kWh in 2010 to $230/kWh in 2016– Expected to fall below $100/kWh after 2030

• Range and efficiency of BEVs increased significantly– Nissan Leaf: 2.7X gain in range with 2.2X gain in miles/kWh– Tesla Model S: 2.3X gain in range with 1.8X gain in miles/kWh


... battery technology is still lacking breakthroughs that meets the key conflicting performance measures

• More energy density requires more safety measures.

• Safety recalls has cut significantly into battery profits.

Cost PowerDensity

Safety

Battery Trade-Off

Source: Avicenne, Cambridge EnerTech Conference (March, 2017)

Recalls slash battery profit

Source: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/368/1923/3227

Safety vs. Cost Trade Off


Outlook for EVs is very mixedPositive:• Tremendous investor excitement• Silicon Valley is changing paradigm• Much activity in batteries• China policy is coordinated to leap-frog WestNegative:• BEV penetrations in 2025 vary from 1% to 20%, with the lower range favored by the best

forecasters and the higher end favored by Wall Street types• The consumer value proposition is not attractive for breakout unless “fun-to-drive”

dominates.– $5000 (at best) higher sticker for 200 mile range; $60/mo fuel savings (optimistic)– Depreciation, range anxiety, charging, etc. uncertainties

• OEMs not particularly thrilled with current batteries– Cost, safety, volumetric efficiencies

• Government help is diminishing– Direct incentives waning; only China has meaningful mandate

My perspective: Battery breakthrough is needed, but lab results looking good. PHEVs will deliver most of the benefit with less risk and better value.

Heavy Duty


US and EU freight trucks are nearly at parity on fuel consumption. US is improving at 2.5%/yr. EU at 1.7%/yr. Parity ~2021

2.5%/yr

2015: US trucks burned ~5% more fuel than in EU. Considering 1.7%/yr in EU vs. 2.5%/yr in US, 2017 gap is 3%. Parity in ~2021. VECTO, 19.3 t trucks.

Daimler, Integer 6/16

Daimler:• Correct for new test route since 2010

(~ 2l/100km higher FC)• Similar vehicles (4x2, 400–500hp) and test conditions (traffic etc.)• Results of all OEMs considered

ICCT, EC Workshop 6/16


Roadmap approaches to 55% BTE are outlined.

DOE AMR 6/16

Daimler (2015) Navistar

Volvo

Cummins


Cummins outlines strategy to 55% BTE.

DOE AMR, 6/16

Performance Requirements–Comply to 2010 HD EPA–Enable LP EGR by close coupling–Minimize heat loss to ambient to maximize WHR efficiency–Maximize open cycle efficiency by lowered back pressure penalty


Achates shows roadmap for the HD 2-stroke opposed piston to meet 55% BTE without waste heat recovery

Achates SAE 2017-01-0638

Started with data and model of 4.6 liter prototype engine


Dedicated EGR might make MD gasoline engines competitive to diesel. Fuel costs perhaps slightly more, but capital expense less.

The dEGR loaded truck burns ~15% more gallons of fuel than the diesel baseline.

The dEGR truck will cost less but the fuel costs might be similar (gasoline costs 10-15% less than diesel).

SwRI, SAE ComVEC, 10/15


Renewable natural gas (landfill, municipal and farm waste) can drop HD GHG emissions by 70-75%.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) can deliver large CO2reductions, depending on the RNG feedstock:• landfill gas (LFG),• municipal solid waste

(MSW)• waste water treatment plants

(WWTP), or• agricultural manureGHG reductions from RNG can actually be greater than 100% due to avoided CH4 emissions.

Using RNG, both SI-CNG and HPDI deliver 70-75% WTW GHG savings vs. diesel.

Westport, Integer Conf 6-16

www.westport.com/is/natural-gas/ghg-benefits-for-ngvs


South Coast AQMD lays out hypothetical market segments for ZEV trucks.

SCAQMD, EPA MSTRS mtg 12/15


Electric road systems (like catenary) has highest WTW energy efficiency (77%), which can reduce total long term cost vs. diesel.

Cumulative costs 2020-2050 are lowest for electric road system.

Overhead Catenary Projects:• Swedish 2-yr field trial started

mid-2016. Scania truck.• Los Angeles ports testing 3 km

road end 2016. Volvo• Germany looking at test

proposals for 2017-19 tests.

Siemens, Integer, 6/16


Electric truck statistics and performance

Local Service

Highway Delivery

TTSI EPA MSTRS 12/15

NOx Technology

Three-way catalyst:CO (HC) + NOx = CO2 + N2 in the absence of oxygen

Lean burn:CO (HC) + O2 = CO2 exhaust reductants prefer to react with oxygen over NOx

Solution: special reductant and catalyst - SCRNH3 + NOx = N2 + H2O


Different deNOx systems are shown for Euro 6b (2014) and 6c (2017). SCR is added in Euro 6c to meet RDE.

Euro 6b survey of technologies (ICCT 9/15)

JM, HKIPTC, 10/15

Umicore, HKIPTC, 10/15

ASC are not shown and can be added to SCR systems.


Low-T LNTs being developed to meet Euro6 RDE requirements

For same fuel penalty, longer purge provides more effective desulfation

BASF, 2016 HKPTC

Euro6c, RDE solutionLow-T LNT + SCRF

Inlet bed T (°C)

Low-T LNTConventional LNT

Diff

eren

tial S

(ppm

)

Inte

grat

ed S

(g/L

)

Low-T LNT advantage Desulfation at lower T

Issue: Desulfation at high T leads to loss in NOx storage and CO oxidation

S = 2g, LNT 1.4L, Tbaseline (lean) 450°CLean phase 20 sec, λ = 0.95

5 sec purge30 sec purge

Cum

ulat

ive

S (g

)Low-T LNTConventional LNT

30 sec purge

5 sec purge


Challenges with cold-start NOx during RDEActive thermal management is one solution, with FC penaltyRicardo, 2016 HKPTC

BaselineEngine heating (4% FC penalty)

EHC (8% FC penalty)

NO

x C

onfo

rmity

Fac

tor

Total Urban Rural Motorway

CF = 1.5CF = 2.1

Urban NOx exceeds limits despite active thermal management

Adblue dosing & NOx conversion initiated earlier w/ thermal management

Tailpipe Cum. NOx

Engine-out NOxTailpipe NOx

NO

x (g

)N

Ox

(g)

Aftertreatment inlet T (bin max.), °C

Testing done on Ricardo “RC130” congested-city cycle for challenging low exh. T conditions

Advanced solutions needed Low-T catalysts, LNT/PNA, 48V, optimization of

active heating measures


SCR catalyst shows stable performance after hydrothermal aging at 900 C / 12 hrsFully Copper-Exchanged High-Silica LTA Zeolites

Si – yellowO – redCu - blue

LTA zeolite w/ Si/Al = 16 & Cu/Al = 0.48 optimum

NO

x C

onve

rsio

n (%

)

Temperature (°C)

0.14

0.32

0.48

Cu/Al = 0.65

Fresh Aged 900 °C, 10% H2O, 12 hrs

[NH3] = [NO] = 500 ppm, 5% O2, 10% H2O, SV= 100 000 h-1

Temperature (°C)

Si/Al = 11

Si/Al = 23

Si/Al = 16

Cu/Al fixed ~ 0.5

Si/Al fixed ~ 16

Time (hrs)

NO

Con

vers

ion

(%)

SO2 = 20 ppm at 270 °C

Regeneration at 500 °C / 2 hr

Resistance to desulfationLTA, Si/Al=16 & Cu/Al=0.48

X

Cu-SSZ-13


Next for HD lo-NOx program: Develop a low-load for evaluation and GHG impacts.

SwRI, Integer Conf 10-16


A sustainable LT (150C) NOx Reduction (SLTNR) system is developing. LT SCR catalyst, pre-turbo DOC, urea vaporizer.

Step 1: Find SCR catalyst designs that perform well at LT. NO2>40% is needed.

Step 2: Make NO2 under LT conditions. Some DOCs can make 50% NO2 at 210-215C. T↓ w/ EGR, but not enough. Pre-turbo DOC needed.

Step 3: urea injection at LT. Use vaporizor (need <10µm droplets).

Cummins, PNNL, JM SAE WCX 2017

The route to a negative CO2 ICE?Soon to be demonstrated:• 70-100% CO2 reductions from in-use fleetTechnology is demonstrated in pieces and feasible. Now it’s a matter of degree. • New ICEs removes CO2 from the air


Route to 70-100% carbon-free oil. It’s happening, and it’s big.

“The oil produced with injection of captured CO2 emissions is 70% “carbon-free”. …The oil produced by EOR could be 100+% “carbon free”.”

DOE, Energy Procedia (2009)

Method is producing 360Mb/d, going to 650Mb/d in 2020. source: ARI 2014

Production of 1.3T barrels of oil is technically possible. ~35 yrs of coal CO2emissions storage capacity. ARI 2014


Going from 70-100% CO2 reductions to negative: On-vehicle carbon capture has been demonstrated. 20-30% net capture. project ~3% fuel penalty for 60% capture

Aramco, Emission 2014 6/14

Available Energy for CO2 Compression, Thermal Electrics


Summary• Regulations drive technology

– Criteria pollutant regulations are near almost down to zero emissions– GHG reductions are just starting– PEV (BEV and PHEV) mandates are weak in the US, but quite aggressive in China

(and maybe India)• Engine technologies – LD needs ~40% reductions by 2025 (EU) to 2030 (US)

• Gasoline engine technologies are developing that will drop CO2 up to 20-25% at ~$40-50 per percent reduction

• New diesel platforms might drop CO2 by 20% at a cost of $80 per percent. Emerging engine (2SOP) is at -35% CO2

• Mild hybridization can drop CO2 by an additional 10-30% at ~$40-$50 per percent • HD proposals for 55% BTE

• EVs have a very diverse outlook. 2% to 7% penetration in 2025. Ramping in 2030.– It seems a battery breakthrough is needed.

• NOx control• LD control with multiple components. Quite effective.• New SCR catalyst durable to 900C. Similar in performance to best today.• HD low NOx systems tested. Indications down to 20-30 mg/bhp-hr NOx

• There are alternative low-carbon transportation pathways


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a global perspective on the future of diesel engines and...

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