Peace Research Institute Oslo

SVACSexual Violence in Armed

Conflict

Data collection, challenges and preliminary findings

Oslo, November 2010

Ragnhild Nordås, PRIO and Notre DameDara K. Cohen, University of Minnesota

Outline

• About the project•Motivation• Data collection• Preliminary results• Lessons and future work

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SVAC - Motivation and backdrop

• “Rape is one of the greatest peace and security challenges

of our time.” UN secretary-general's special representative on

sexual violence in conflict, Margot Wallstrom

• Current data are mostly case studies, focused on the same cases of the worst sexual violence (Bosnia and Rwanda)– A better research design would analyze a universe of all

cases, including where sexual violence occurred and where it did not

To devise an effective prevention strategy, more systematic knowledge is needed

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Project goal

• Forecasting for prevention• Data needs – A comprehensive dataset on sexual violence in armed conflict

1989-2009 by all major actor types (state and non-state)• First step: Pilot project on conflicts in Africa, 2000-2009

– Pilot project funding: Grant from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Sept-Dec 2010)

• Second step: Additional years and geographic regions– Research suggests that the problem is worldwide, not

only Africa (Cohen 2010)– Pending additional funding

• Long-term goal– To guide policymakers towards more effective measures

against sexual violence in armed conflict and post-conflict situations

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SVAC project staff

• Head researchers

Inger Skjelsbæk Dara Kay Cohen Ragnhild Nordås Scott Gates Håvard Strand

(Minnesota)

• Consultative group

Elisabeth Wood (Yale) Mia Bloom (Penn State) Chris Butler (New Mexico) Amelia Green (Yale)

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UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v4-2009

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Pilot: Region 1, conflicts active in 2000-2009

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SVAC data: What is sexual violence and ”armed conflict?”

• SVAC will use the International Criminal Court (ICC) definition: – includes rape, sexual mutilation, sexual slavery, enforced

prostitution, forced pregnancy, and enforced sterilization – importantly, definition does not exclude the existence of female

perpetrators and male victims of sexual violence • SVAC uses the UCDP definition (dataset) on Armed Conflict: – Defines conflict as “a contested incompatibility that concerns

government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths”• ”war” = 1000 battle-related deaths in a calendar year

– Types of conflict: (1) Intrastate armed conflict(2) Internationalized internal armed conflict (3) Interstate conflicts

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SVAC dataset: Unit of analysis

• Conflict-actor-year– A given conflict actor (state/militia group,

rebel group)– In a given conflict – In a given year• Example: the sexual violence perpetrated

by the RUF in Sierra Leone in 1995

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SVAC dataset: Dimensions

• Perpetrators: Who commited the violence? (Armed group, ethnicity, gender)

• Victims: Who were the victims? (Gender, race, ethnicity, age)

• Magnitude: How intense was the violence? (Isolated incidents, widespread)

• Location: Where did the violence happen? (Part of the country, location)

• Timing: When did the violence happen? (Early in the war, during peace talks)

• Form: What types of sexual violence? (rape, gang rape, forced marriage)

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Main data sources in pilot

• Five major data sources

1. US State Department Human Rights reports (annual)

2. Amnesty International 3. Human Rights Watch 4. International Crisis Group5. DCAF, Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict

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Documentation and Reliability

• Conflict manuscripts – Background information in document with

searchable headings

• Coding decisions are double-checked for consistency– detect any misunderstandings and/or systematic

biases– calculate intercoder reliability scores

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Pilot sample

• 28 armed conflicts total that are active in Africa in 2000-2009

• These involve 120 conflict actors • Initial phase of pilot are 8 high priority conflicts

RA #1 RA #2 RA #3 RA #4Sudan Sierra Leone Rwanda DRC

Eritrea Cote d’Ivoire Burundi Angola

Ethiopia Guinea Nigeria Uganda

Somalia Mali Central African Rep. Congo

Algeria Liberia Chad

Senegal

Guinea Bissau

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Preliminary findings from first 8 countries

• There is variation in perpetration of sexual violence both across and within these conflicts

• Magnitude by actor group type– Most state actors are perpetrators– 25% of pro-government militias are perpetrators– Less than 50% of rebel groups are perpetrators

• Variation over time– Both state and non-state perpetrators refrained from

sexual violence in at least some years– Policy implication: Sexual violence is not a constant,

inevitable consequence of wartime

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Preliminary findings: Post-conflict violence

• Data show sexual violence by armed groups continues after conflict– 25% of conflict actors engaged in some sexual violence post-

conflict

• Only focusing on the period of conflict misses the full scale of conflict-related sexual violence– Implications for policy: Peacekeeper presence should

continue even after deaths have stopped; peace processes should focus also on ceasing non-lethal violence

• Suggests that lethal violence is not perfectly correlated with sexual violence– Implications for research: Need to collect separate data and

to develop separate theories on sexual violence

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Lessons: Measuring SV--Challenges/opportunities

• Policy memo on challenges and opportunities for cross-national data collection on SVAC (February 2011)• What are the challenges?• Biases in sources

– What is sexual violence? – Measuring magnitude• Under-reporting • Over-reporting• What counts?

– Beyond magnitude• Who are the perpetrators/victims• Locations of violations• Timing

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Data/methods recommendations

• Importance of a clear, standard definition• Establishing a baseline measure from pre-

conflict• Data on both perpetrators/victims• Time-variant data• Location data• Data triangulation – verification from several

sources–More comprehensive search on selected

cases– Comprehensive and narrow search to be

compared for content

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Thank you

svac@prio.no

Conclusions

•Will be most comprehensive data collection• Funding• Policy briefs (2011)