peacock bull bear

22
 Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. November 7, 2014 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306  [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com think ing outsi de t he bo x 

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Peacock Bull Bear

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  • Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,

    & TechnicalYardeni Research, Inc.

    November 7, 2014

    Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

    [email protected]

    Joe Abbott732-497-5306

    [email protected]

    Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

    [email protected]

    Mali Quintana480-664-1333

    [email protected]

    Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

    thinking outside the box

  • Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

    November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

    Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13Dow Theory 14S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019

  • 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201620

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    11/1

    YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

    S&P 500 Index

    YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*

    * Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 1.

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    11/1YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

    Boom-Bust Barometer*

    Consumer Comfort Index

    * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 2.

    Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

    Page 1 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

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    S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

    S&P 500 Index

    CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index

    Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 3.

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    S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

    Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)

    S&P 500 Index

    Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 4.

    Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

    Page 2 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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    11/7YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

    YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1117.4)

    S&P 500 Index (2031.9)

    * Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 5.

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015600

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    US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

    Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)

    S&P 500 Index

    Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 6.

    Global Growth Barometer

    Page 3 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

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    S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

    S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average

    Economic Surprise Indexyardeni.com

    Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

    Figure 7.

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-200

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    S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

    Economic Surprise Index

    S&P 500 Forward P/E*

    yardeni.com

    Source: Standard & Poors Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.

    Figure 8.

    Economic Surprise Index

    Page 4 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 9.

    87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

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    Ratio Oct 28 2.88 Nov 4 3.62 11/4

    INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

    Bull/Bear Ratio

    87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1610

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    80 Bulls Bears Oct 21 35.3 18.2 Oct 28 47.0 16.3 Nov 4 54.6 15.1

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    Bulls

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    87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 165

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    Correction Camp

    yardeni.com

    Source: Investors Intelligence.

    Investors Intelligence Sentiment

    Page 5 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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  • 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16200

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    S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*

    (ratio scale)11/7

    yarden

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    * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Investors Intelligence.

    Figure 10.

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    DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE(ratio scale)

    11/7

    yarden

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    Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

    Figure 11.

    Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

    Page 6 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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    S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

    (ratio scale)

    11/7

    yardeni.com

    * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Investors Intelligence.

    Figure 12.

    87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 161600

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    DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS

    (ratio scale)

    11/7

    yardeni.com

    Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

    Figure 13.

    Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

    Page 7 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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  • 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-40

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    S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500

    (percent)

    S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.

    BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE

    11/6

    Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yarden

    i.com

    Figure 14.

    87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-40

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    S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500

    (percent)

    S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.

    BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS

    11/6

    Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yarden

    i.com

    Figure 15.

    Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

    Page 8 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 16.

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    AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

    AAII Bull Ratio*

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    11/5AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

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    Latest Readings Bulls Bears Oct 29 49.4 21.1 Nov 5 52.7 15.1

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    Bulls

    Bears

    * AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

    yardeni.com

    AAII Sentiment

    Page 9 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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    BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

    Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

    Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index

    yardeni.com

    Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

    Figure 17.

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    BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

    Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

    Consumer Comfort Index

    yardeni.com

    Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

    Figure 18.

    Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

    Page 10 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.50

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    S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)

    Average = 1.616(1996-2010)

    Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 19.

    96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.75

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    S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)

    Average = 1.624(1996-2010)

    Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 20.

    S&P 500 Put Call Ratio

    Page 11 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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    VIX: S&P 500

    Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

    yarden

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    Figure 21.

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    VIX: NASDAQ 100

    Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

    yarden

    i.com

    Figure 22.

    Volatility

    Page 12 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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  • 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162

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    NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)

    52-week moving average

    Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

    yarden

    i.com

    Figure 23.

    Volume

    Page 13 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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  • 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152000

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    1800011/7DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES

    Industrials (DJIA)

    Transportation (DJTA)

    Source: The Wall Street Journal.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 24.

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015100

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    11/6S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES

    Industrials Composite*

    Transportation Composite

    * S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 25.

    Dow Theory

    Page 14 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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    -56.8% (510)

    -16.0% (69)

    -19.4% (154)

    -9.8% (27)

    -9.9% (59)

    -7.7% (61)

    -7.4% (27)

    * Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in parentheses.

    S&P 500 INDEX: 2008-2014*

    S&P 500 (2031.21)

    200-day moving average (1915.98)

    50-day moving average (1970.00)

    Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 26.

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-45

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    S&P 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)

    Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 27.

    S&P 500 Moving Averages

    Page 15 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

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    11/6S&P 500 INDEX*

    Latest price: 2031.2150-dma: 1970.00200-dma: 1915.98

    * Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poors Corporation.

    (+) Latest price is 3.0% above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 5.7% above the 200-dma.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 28.

    73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-30

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    S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)

    Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poors Corporation.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 29.

    S&P 500 Moving Averages

    Page 16 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 30.

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    11/6CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*

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    11/6INDUSTRIALS

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    57511/6CONSUMER STAPLES

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    11/6INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

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    ENERGY

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    11/6MATERIALS

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    FINANCIALS

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    TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

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    11/6HEALTH CARE

    Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poors Corporation.200-day moving average

    *S&P 500 sectors on ratio scales.

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    UTILITIES

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

    Page 17 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 31.

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    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % from 200-day moving average

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    INDUSTRIALS

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    CONSUMER STAPLES

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    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

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    ENERGY

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    MATERIALS

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    FINANCIALS

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    TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

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    HEALTH CARE

    Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poors Corporation.

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-45

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    UTILITIES

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma

    Page 18 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 32.

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    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.18

    .20

    .22

    .24

    .26

    11/6

    INDUSTRIALS

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.15

    .20

    .25

    .30

    .35

    11/6

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.20

    .25

    .30

    .35

    .40

    11/6

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.1

    .2

    .3

    .4

    .5

    .6

    11/6

    ENERGY

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.10

    .15

    .20

    .25

    11/6

    MATERIALS

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.1

    .2

    .3

    .4

    11/6

    FINANCIALS

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.06

    .08

    .10

    .12

    .14

    .16

    11/6

    TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.25

    .30

    .35

    .40

    .45

    11/6

    HEALTH CARE

    Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poors Corporation.

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.08

    .10

    .12

    .14

    .16

    .18

    .20

    11/6

    UTILITIES

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