peak electricity, liquid fuels, and hydrogen...electricity is 40% of energy production in the u.s....

63
Charles Forsberg Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Ave; Bld. 42-207a; Cambridge, MA 02139 Tel: (617) 324-4010; Email: [email protected] MIT Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems 2010 World Nuclear University Institute Christ Church, Oxford, England Tuesday July 6, 2009 File: Nuclear Renewable Futures; Great Britain July2010 Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen

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Page 1: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Charles Forsberg

Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

77 Massachusetts Ave; Bld. 42-207a; Cambridge, MA 02139

Tel: (617) 324-4010; Email: [email protected]

MIT Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems

2010 World Nuclear University Institute

Christ Church, Oxford, England

Tuesday July 6, 2009

File: Nuclear Renewable Futures; Great Britain July2010

Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures

Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen

Page 2: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Alternative Nuclear

Energy Futures

Charles Forsberg

2

Page 3: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Outline

The Energy Challenge

The Variable Electricity Challenge

Electricity storage requirements

Nuclear-geothermal heat storage

Nuclear-Hydrogen Production, Use, and Storage

Peak electricity from hydrogen

Nuclear-Renewable Electricity and Hydrogen

Liquid Fuels

3

Page 4: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

The Energy Challenge

4

Page 5: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Energy Futures May Be Determined

By Two Sustainability Goals

No Imported Crude Oil No Climate Change

Tropic of Cancer

Arabian Sea

Gulf of Oman

Persian

Red

Sea

Gulf of Aden

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

Lake Van

Lake Urmia

Lake Nasser

T'ana Hayk

Gulf of Suez Gulf of Aqaba

Strait of Hormuz Gulf

Suez Canal

Saudi Arabia

Iran Iraq

Egypt

Sudan

Ethiopia

Somalia

Djibouti

Yemen

Oman

Oman

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Bahrain

Socotra (Yem en)

Turkey

Syria

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Romania

Bulgaria

Greece

Cyprus

Lebanon

Israel

Jordan

Russia

Eritrea

Georgia

Armenia Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

0 200

400 miles

400

200 0

600 kilometers

Middle East

Tropic of Cancer

Arabian Sea

Gulf of Oman

Persian

Red

Sea

Gulf of Aden

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

Lake Van

Lake Urmia

Lake Nasser

T'ana Hayk

Gulf of Suez Gulf of Aqaba

Strait of Hormuz Gulf

Suez Canal

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Iraq

Egypt

Sudan

Ethiopia

Somalia

Djibouti

Yemen

Oman

Oman

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Bahrain

Socotra (Yem en)

Turkey

Syria

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Romania

Bulgaria

Greece

Cyprus

Lebanon

Israel

Jordan

Russia

Eritrea

Georgia

Armenia Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

0 200

400 miles

400

200 0

600 kilometers

Athabasca Glacier, Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada

Photo provided by the National Snow and Ice

Data Center

2050 Goal: Reduce

Greenhouse Gases by 80%

5

Page 6: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Oil and Gas Reserves Are

Concentrated in the Persian Gulf

Reserves of Leading Oil and Gas Companies (2007)

Rank Company Total Oil/Gas Reserves:

Oil Equivalent

(109 Barrels)

1 Saudi Arabian Oil Company 303

2 National Iranian Oil Company 300

3 Qatar General Petroleum Corp. 170

4 Iraq National Oil Company 134

Non-Government Corporations

17 ExxonMobil Corp. 13

19 BP Corp. 13

Price and Availability are Political Decisions

6

Page 7: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

7

Fossil Fuels Are a Major Challenge:

Oil Dependency and CO2

Emissions

Share of Total World Primary Energy Supply in 2007

Goal: 80% Reduction in

Greenhouse Gas Releases by 2050OECD/IEA 2009; http://data/iea.org

Page 8: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Mechanical Engineering, September 2009

U.S. Sources of Greenhouse Gases

If Goal is 80% Reduction, Fossil Fuels Without Sequestration Just About Eliminated

8

Page 9: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Need To Rethink Nuclear Energy

For a Low-Carbon Low-Oil World

Today we use nuclear energy for base-load electricity

Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S.

Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production

Implies nuclear energy could meet 25 to 30% of energy demand

Need solutions to meet the oil and climate challenge!

An energy solution may be required where

Nuclear power meets 50 to 75% of total energy demand

Nuclear energy has new roles beyond base-load electricity

9

Page 10: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

The Variable

Electricity Challenge

Electricity Storage for a Low-Carbon World

Page 11: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

11

Electricity Demand Varies

By the Day, Week, and Season

Hourly load forecasts for 3 different weeks in Illinois, USA

Spring

Summer

Winter

WeekendWorkweek

11

Page 12: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Dollars/MW(e)-h

Ho

urs

/year

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

<5

5-1

0

10-1

5

15-2

0

20-2

5

25-3

0

30-3

5

35-4

0

40-4

5

45-5

0

50-5

5

55-6

0

60-6

5

65-7

0

70-7

5

75-8

0

80-8

5

85-9

0

90-9

5

>95

FY 2004 FERC Marginal Price ($/MWh)

Data for Los Angeles Department of Water and Power

Variable Electricity Demand Results

in Variable Electricity Prices

Price vs. Hours/year

12

Page 13: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Fossil Fuels Are Used to Match

Electricity Supply with Demand

Fossil fuels are inexpensive to store (coal piles, oil

tanks, etc.)

Only two options today for peak electricity

Fossil fuels (Usually natural gas)

Hydroelectricity (Available in only some locations)

What replaces fossil-fuel peak electricity if fossil

fuel use is limited or expensive?

Systems to convert fossil fuels to heat or electricity have low capital costs

13

Page 14: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Daily-to-Seasonal Energy Storage

Geothermal Plant

Oil Shale

Oil ShaleHu

nd

red

s o

f M

ete

rsH

un

dre

ds o

f M

ete

rs

RockPermeable

Cap Rock

Nuclear PlantFluid

Return

Thermal

Input to

Rock

Thermal Output

From Rock

Fluid

Input

Heat

HydrogenElectricity → Hydrogen → Storage → Electricity

Water—But Not Enough Hoover Dams

14

Page 15: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Electricity Storage

Requirements

U.S. Data Analysis

Ongoing R&D at MIT

For All-Nuclear, All-Wind, and All-Solar Worlds

Page 16: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

16

Nuclear (Most economic)

Steady state output

Wind

Highly variable on a daily,

weekly, and yearly basis

Strong seasonal characteristics

Solar

Predictable variations

Strong seasonal characteristics

Storage Requirements

Depend Upon Demand and

Electricity Production

Characteristics

Page 17: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Dem

and (

10

4M

W(e

))

Existing Base Load

Time (hours since beginning of year)

New Base Load With Storage

All-Nuclear Electricity World With Storage

Base-Load Electricity Demand Increases by 50%

Perfect Storage: ~7% Electricity Direct to Storage

17

Page 18: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

CAISO Electricity Production and

Demand:

All-Nuclear, All-Wind, or All-Solar

Worlds

CAISO = California ISO (California’s Power Grid); 2005 Weekly Data

Trough Solar with Some Internal Storage

18

Page 19: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Energy Storage Requirements As

Fraction of Total Electricity Produced

All Nuclear, All Wind, or All Solar Systems

Hourly Daily Seasonal

Nuclear 0.07 0.04 0.04

Wind 0.38 0.27 0.17

Hourly Daily Seasonal

Nuclear 0.07 0.04 0.04

Wind 0.45 0.36 0.25

Solar 0.50 0.21 0.17

California Electrical Grid

New England Electrical Grid

To meet hourly, daily, or seasonal variations in electricity demand

19

Page 20: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Nuclear-Geothermal

Heat Storage

Gigawatt-Year Heat Storage for Peak Electricity

or Heat for Industrial Applications

Ongoing R&D at MIT

Page 21: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Nuclear-Geothermal System

Oil Shale

Oil Shale

Hu

nd

red

s o

f M

ete

rsH

un

dre

ds o

f M

ete

rs

Rock

Permeable

Cap Rock

Geothermal PlantNuclear Plant

Fluid

Return

Thermal

Input to

Rock

Thermal

Output

From Rock

Fluid

Input

Nesjavellir Geothermal power plant; Iceland;

120MW(e); Wikimedia Commons (2010)

21

Page 22: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Why Store Heat?

Nuclear reactors produce heat, thus direct

transfer of heat to storage

Avoid conversion loses to different storage media

(batteries, hydrogen, water at elevation)

Heat storage media (rock) is cheap

Economic costs of inefficiencies are small

compared to electricity

Value of heat is one-third that of electricity

Light water reactors are 33% efficient (electricity

divided by heat generated)

22

Page 23: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Heat Storage Must Be Large or Deep

to Avoid Excessive Heat Losses

Intrinsic Gigawatt-Year (Nuclear) Storage System

Large Heat Storage Deep Heat Storage

Heat Capacity

~ Volume (L3)

L ~ 500 m

Rock temperatures

increase with depth

If sufficient depth,

storage and rock

temperatures match;

pressure opposes fluid

leakage

Requires deep wells

(kilometers) with high

costs

No

Insulation

/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

Heat

Losses

~6L2

Must

minimize

fluid loss

23

Page 24: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Nuclear-Geothermal

Heat-Storage Implications

New Technology in Development

Enables renewables by addressing

daily, weekly, and seasonal storage Electricity when no wind or sun

Preliminary economics favors intermediate load

Expands use of nuclear heat for

industrial applications Produce heat at times of low energy costs

Use heat when need

Decouples heat demand from reactor

production schedule

24

Page 25: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Nuclear-Hydrogen

Production, Storage, and Use

Page 26: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Growing Hydrogen Markets

Market Independent of Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicles

Liquid fuels production: Major market today

Hydrogenation of heavy oil, tar sands, and coal to produce gasoline and diesel

Removal of sulfur from liquid fuels

Chemical feedstock

Fertilizer (all nitrate fertilizers): Major market today

Hydrogenation of chemicals (Corn oil, etc.)

Production of metals

Future markets

Biofuels production

Peak electricity

26

Page 27: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Iron ore + Carbon → Pig iron +

Carbon dioxide ↑

Primary production process today

Iron ore + Hydrogen → Iron + Water

4% of all iron production

Produces high-purity iron

Major future market in materials

production if constraints on

greenhouse gas releases

Hydrogen Can Replace Carbon For

Materials Production—Iron Example

27

Page 28: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Commercial hydrogen production technology Primary technology until the 1950s

2H2O + electricity → 2H2 + O2

Efficiency: 66% LHV

Cell lifetime: 20 years

Capital costs are decreasing and efficiency is increasing

Alkaline Electrolysis

28

Page 29: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

High-Temperature Electrolysis Cell (Courtesy of INL and Ceramatec)

Technology being developed 2 H2O + Electricity + Heat → 2H2 + O2

Solid-oxide fuel cell in reverse Oxygen transport though membrane

Operating temperature ~800°C

More efficient than electrolysis Heat converts water to steam (gas)

Higher temperature weakens

chemical bond

Electricity breaks chemical bond

Potential to exceed 50% efficiency

with high-temperature reactors

High-Temperature Electrolysis (HTE)

Steam Electrolysis of Water

29

Page 30: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

High-Temperature Electrolysis Cell (Courtesy of INL and Ceramatec)

Steam at 200 to 300°C

Heat steam to cell temperatures

Hot product H2 and O2 heats

incoming steam to ~800°C

Final temperature boost from

electrical inefficiencies

Estimated LWR efficiencies

Electricity: 36%

Cold electrolysis: 25.7%

HTE: 33 to 34%

High-Temperature Electrolysis

Using Light-Water Reactors (LWRs)

30

Page 31: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Produce hydrogen at times of low-cost electricity

Stop production of hydrogenwhen high electricity demand

Requires electrolysis-based hydrogen production

Need low-cost electrolyzers

Hydrogen Production Can Help Match

Electricity Generation To Demand

31

Page 32: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Thermochemical Cycles

2H2O + Heat → 2H2 + O2

Potential for better economics

Heat is cheaper than electricity

Potential to scale up to large equipment sizes

Many proposed cycles with peak

temperatures from ~500°C to 1000°C

Long-term option—much R&D is required

32

Page 33: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

Example: Sulfur-Iodine Process

I + SO2 2 2 + 2H OH SO 2 4

Heat

Oxygen Hydrogen

Water

800-1000 Co

2H O2

H2

2HI + H2 4SOH2 2 2O + SO + ½O

H2 2 + I

I2SO2

O2

2HI

H2 4SO HI

33

Page 34: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Commercial Large-Scale Underground

Hydrogen Storage Is Inexpensive

Only low-cost hydrogen storage option

Based on natural-gas storage technology

U.S. stores a quarter of a year’s natural

gas supply in 400 such facilities

←Chevron Phillips↑Clemens Terminal for H2

160 x 1000 ft cylinder in salt deposit

Many geology options

34

Page 35: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Peak Electricity

from Hydrogen

Ongoing R&D at MIT

Page 36: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Today: Gas Turbine

Mid-term: Being Developed

High-temperature fuel cells

operated in reverse

Fuel cell / gas turbine

~70% efficiency

Siemens

Oxy-hydrogen steam cycle

~70% efficiency

Peak Electricity Can Be

Produced From Stored H2

Require High-Efficiency Low-Capital-Cost System

Operates a Limited Number of Hours per Year

Courtesy of Clean Energy Systems

36

Page 37: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

H2

Peak Electricity Challenges

Energy conversion losses in two directions (Versus heat storage)

Electricity → Hydrogen → Electricity

Heat → Electricity

Capital costs for a system operating for a limited number of hours per year

Potential solution strategies

High efficiency by using electrolysis H2 + O2

Same equipment for H2 production and use

37

Page 38: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

High-Temperature

Electrolysis / Fuel Cell

Nuclear

Energy

Off-Peak

Electricity

and Heat

H2 Off-Peak →

Peak

Electricity

Electricity

↑ ↓

Storage

Peak

Electricity

← H2 Peak

O2 Off-Peak →

Peak Electricity with HTE

Minimize Capital Cost: Fuel Cell – HTE Same System

38

←O2 Peak

Page 39: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Peak-Electricity

With Oxy-H2

Steam Cycle

High-temperature

(1500°C) steam cycle 2H2+ O2 → Steam

Aero-derived Turbine

Low cost Direct steam production

No boiler

High efficiency (+70%)

Being developed for

multiple purposes

Steam

1500º C

Hydrogen

Water

PumpCondenser

Burner

Steam

Turbine

InOut

CoolingWater

Generator

Oxygen

Clean Energy

Systems

170-MWt, 30-cm

Combustor

39

Page 40: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Oxy-Hydrogen Combustor Replaces Steam

Boiler: Lower Cost & Higher Efficiency

But Requires Hydrogen and Oxygen As Feed

Coal Boiler to

Produce Steam

170 MWt 30-Cm Oxy-Fuel Combustor to Produce Steam

Courtesy of Clean Energy Systems

40

Page 41: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Nuclear-Renewable

Electricity and H2

Production

Ongoing R&D at MIT

Using Low-Cost Stranded Renewables and Nuclear

to Economically Meet Local Electricity Demand

and Export Hydrogen to Markets

Page 42: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Wind—The Near Term Renewable

Wind characteristics

A 15% increase in wind velocity implies

a 50% increase in output

Not dispatchable: Electric Reliability

Council of Texas experience

8000+ Megawatts of nameplate capacity

For meeting peak loads, only 8.7% of wind

nameplate capacity is dependable

Large-scale wind requires either:

Backup electricity supply (expensive)

Energy storage in some form

42

Page 43: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Renewable

Economics Are

Site Dependent

Economics are highly sensitive to location

Wind Low-cost wind far

from markets

Offshore wind expensive

How to export stranded wind energy?

Wind Resource Map

43

Page 44: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Nuclear-Wind Option

Test case

North Dakota wind

Co-sited nuclear and

wind plants

Products

Local electricity

Hydrogen

Chicago refineries

Alberta tar sands

Avoid expensive

electricity storage

May be competitive

44

Page 45: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

45

Medium-Voltage

Electricity

High

Temperature

Electrolysis

Variable

Electricity

To Local

Grid

Underground

Hydrogen

Storage

High-Voltage

Electricity

Steam/

Heat

Hydrogen

Base-Load

Nuclear

Power

Plant

Electricity

and / or

Steam

Output

Steady

State

Export of

Hydrogen to

Industrial

Users

Nuclear Stranded-Renewable

Electric-Hydrogen System

ProductsWind or Solar

High-Capital-

Cost Systems

Operate at High-

Capacity Factors

Hydrogen

Pipeline

45

Page 46: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Electricity to the grid

Electricity to H2

production

Low wind conditions

Wind-Nuclear System Analysis

46

Page 47: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Potential for Viable Economics

High-capital-cost systems operate at full capacity

Nuclear power plant

Wind—when the wind blows

Hydrogen pipeline constant full flow

Underground hydrogen storage is cheap

Major cost uncertainty is the electrolyzer

Wide range of capital cost estimates

How much can the electrolyzer be pushed when low

cost power is available?

47

Page 48: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Liquid Fuels

Oil Supplies 35% of World Energy Demand

Options to Reduce Oil Consumption

In the Production Process and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Releases

Ongoing R&D at MIT

Page 49: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Urban Residues

We Will Not Run Out of Liquid Fuels

But the Less a Feedstock Resembles Gasoline,

The More Energy it Takes in the Conversion Process

Agricultural Residues

Coal

Sugar Cane

49

Page 50: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Vehicle Greenhouse-Gas Emissions

(Energy) Vs Feedstock to Make Diesel Fuel

Illinois #6 Coal Baseline

Pipeline Natural Gas

Wyoming Sweet Crude Oil

Venezuelan Syncrude

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Gre

enh

ouse Im

pa

cts

(g C

O2-e

q/m

ile in S

UV

)

Conversion/Refining

Transportation/Distribution

End Use Combustion

Extraction/Production

Business As Usual

Using Fuel

Making and

Delivering of Fuel

(Fisher-TropschLiquids)

(Fisher-TropschLiquids)

Sou

rce o

f Gre

en

hou

se

Impacts

←N

uc

lea

r E

nerg

y

Can

Su

pp

ly

←Feedstock

50

Page 51: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Some Types of Oil Recovery Require

Massive Quantities of Heat

Heavy oil (California)

Inject steam into oil reserve to increase temperature so oil flows

Heat input is 25 to 40% of the energy content of the recovered oil

Oil Sands: Steam-Assisted Gravity Drain (Alberta, Canada)

Inject steam into oil sands to break oil-water-sand mixture

Heat input up to 20% of the energy value of the oil

Shale oil (U.S., Europe, Mideast)

Heat rock to >350°C to thermally crack oil shale

Recover light oil and gases

Carbon residue remains sequestered underground

Need high temperatures to heat rock in a reasonable amount of time

Heat input ~35% of energy value of recovered oil and gases

51

Page 52: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Confining Strata

Heavy OilTar SandsShale Oil

Coal

Heat Wave Light Oil

In-Situ Refining

Thermal Cracker

Light Oil

Distillate

CrudeOil

Heater

Petrocoke

HeaterWell

ProductionWell

Sequestered Carbon

Condense Gasoline

Cool

Condense Distillate

Cool

Distillation Column

Resid

Gases (Propane,

etc.)

Traditional Refining

Nuclear Heating Option For

Liquid Fuels Recovery

Avoid burning oil and gas for oil

and gas recovery

Reduced greenhouse gases

Geology determines peak

temperature and reactor type

LWRs for many applications

HTR for oil shales

Oil Peak-Electricity Option

Heat at night for oil recovery; slow

thermal response (weeks)

Electricity during day

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Page 53: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Inputs For Liquid Fuels Production

Products:Ethanol

Biofuels

Diesel

Feedstock Conversion Process

Can Avoid Greenhouse Gas Releases to Atmosphere If

Carbon, Energy, and Hydrogen from Non-Fossil Sources

Carbon:Fossil fuel (CHx)

Biomass (CHOH)

Atmosphere (CO2)

Energy:Fossil fuel

Biomass

Nuclear

HydrogenFossil Fuel

Biomass

Nuclear (Water)

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Page 54: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Difference Between Feedstock and

Fuel Determines Energy Inputs

Products: Gasoline and Diesel: ~CH2

Feedstocks determine energy inputs

Light crude oil: ~CH2

Biomass: ~ CH2O

Coal: ~ CH

Atmospheric carbon dioxide: CO2

Need to add hydrogen in many cases

Directly as Hydrogen

Indirectly as water and heat

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Page 55: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Biomass Fuels: A Potentially Low-

Greenhouse-Gas Liquid-Fuel Option

CxHy + (X + y

4 )O2

CO2 + ( y2

)H2OLiquid Fuels

AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide

Fuel Factory

Biomass

Cars, Trucks, and Planes

EnergyFossil

BiomassNuclear

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Page 56: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

U.S. Biomass Fuels Yield Depends

On the Bio-Refinery Energy Source

Convert to Diesel Fuel with Outside

Hydrogen and Heat

Convert to Ethanol

Burn Biomass

12.4

4.7

9.8

0

5

10

15

Ene

rgy

Val

ue (

10

6ba

rrel

s of

die

sel

fuel

equ

ival

ent p

er d

ay)

Global Situation is Similar:

If Biofuels to Replace Oil, Need an External Biorefinery Energy Source

←U.S. Transport

Fuel Demand

Biomass

Energy to

Operate

Bio-refinery

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Page 57: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Future Cellulosic Liquid-Fuel Options

Biomass As Energy Source Nuclear as Energy Source

Biomass

Cellulose(65 -85% Biomass)

Lignin(15 -35% Biomass)

Gasoline/Diesel

Ethanol

Steam

Ethanol Plant Steam Plant Lignin Plant Nuclear Reactor Ethanol Plant

Hydrogen(small

quantities)

Heat

Steam

BiomassNuclearBiomass

50% Increase Liquid Fuel/Unit Biomass

Electricity

Ethanol

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Page 58: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Biomass as feedstock and biorefinery

energy source

Supplemental source of liquid fuels

Nuclear-biomass fuels production

Biomass as carbon feedstock

Nuclear energy for biorefinery heat and

hydrogen (Some nuclear heat to biomass

fuels options are now economic)

Can potentially replace oil*

Biomass Liquid Fuel Futures

*Assumes other technologies bend over growing oil demand curve (plug-in hybrids, etc.)

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Page 59: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Conclusions

Nuclear may need to supply 50 to 75% of the world energy needs if we are to meet low-carbon goals and get off oil

Gigawatt-year storage is a requirement for a low-carbon future—most storage options need nuclear

Differences in energy sources creates the potential for synergistic options Nuclear: Large-scale steady-state build-anywhere heat source

Wind and Solar: Mid-scale variable regional electricity sources

Biomass: Limited carbon resource

Electricity and fuels markets will be coupled

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Page 60: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Questions?

Hydrogen

Production

Nuclear

Electricity

Biofuels

Local Electricity

(Variable)

Renewables

Oil Oil Rock

Permeable

Cap Rock

Heat Storage

HeatHeat

H2

Long-Distance

H2 Pipeline

Long-Distance Export

Electricity (Base Load)

H2 Store

Heat

61

Page 61: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

ABSTRACT

Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures

Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen

In the next 50 years the world energy system may see the largest change since the

beginning of the industrial revolution as we switch from a fossil to a nuclear-

renewable energy system. The drivers are climate change and oil dependency.

These drivers indicate the need to consider nuclear energy in a broader role

including using nuclear energy for (1) variable daily, weekly, and seasonal

electricity production by coupling base-load nuclear reactors to gigawatt-year

energy storage systems, (2) liquid fuels production in nuclear biomass and nuclear

carbon-dioxide refineries, and (3) hydrogen production to support fuels and

materials production. This would be a transformational change. First, nuclear

energy may become an enabling technology for the large-scale use of renewables.

Second, electricity and liquid fuels production would be a tightly coupled energy

system. Such a future would require successful development of multiple nuclear-

user technologies such as gigawatt-year heat storage, high-temperature

electrolysis for hydrogen production, and hydrocracking of lignin.

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Page 62: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

Biography: Charles Forsberg

Dr. Charles Forsberg is the Executive Director

of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Study. Before joining MIT,

he was a Corporate Fellow at Oak Ridge

National Laboratory. He is a Fellow of the

American Nuclear Society, a Fellow of the

American Association for the Advancement of

Science, and recipient of the 2005 Robert E.

Wilson Award from the American Institute of

Chemical Engineers for outstanding chemical

engineering contributions to nuclear energy,

including his work in hydrogen production and

nuclear-renewable energy futures. He received

the American Nuclear Society special award for

innovative nuclear reactor design. Dr. Forsberg

earned his bachelor's degree in chemical

engineering from the University of Minnesota

and his doctorate in Nuclear Engineering from

MIT. He has been awarded 11 patents and has

published over 200 papers.

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Page 63: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen...Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy

References

1. C. W. Forsberg, “Sustainability by Combining Nuclear, Fossil, and Renewable Energy Sources,” Progress in Nuclear

Energy, 51, 192-200 (2009)

2. J. C. Conklin and C. W. Forsberg, “Base-Load and Peak Electricity from a Combined Nuclear Heat and Fossil Combined-

Cycle Plant, Global 2007, American Nuclear Society, Boise, Idaho, September 9-13, 2007.

3. C. W. Forsberg, “Meeting U.S. Liquid Transport Fuel Needs with a Nuclear Hydrogen Biomass System,” International

Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 34 (9), 4227-4236, (May 2009)

4. C. Forsberg and M. Kazimi, “Nuclear Hydrogen Using High-Temperature Electrolysis and Light-Water Reactors for Peak

Electricity Production,” 4th Nuclear Energy Agency Information Exchange Meeting on Nuclear Production of Hydrogen,

Oak Brook, Illinois, April 10-16, 2009. http://mit.edu/canes/pdfs/nes-10.pdf

5. C. W. Forsberg, “Nuclear Energy for a Low-Carbon-Dioxide-Emission Transportation System with Liquid Fuels,” Nuclear

Technology, 164, December 2008.

6. C. W. Forsberg, “Use of High-Temperature Heat in Refineries, Underground Refining, and Bio-Refineries for Liquid-Fuels

Production,” HTR2008-58226, 4th International Topical Meeting on High-Temperature Reactor Technology, American

Society of Mechanical Engineers; September 28-October 1, 2008;Washington D.C.

7. C. W. Forsberg, “Economics of Meeting Peak Electricity Demand Using Hydrogen and Oxygen from Base-Load Nuclear or

Off-Peak Electricity,” Nuclear Technology, 166, 18-26 April 2009.

8. I. Oloyede and C. Forsberg, “Implications of Gigawatt-Year Electricity Storage Systems on Future Baseload Nuclear

Electricity Demand”, Paper 10117, Proc. International Congress on Advanced Nuclear Power Plants, San Diego, 15-17

June 2010.

9. Y. H. Lee, C. Forsberg, M. Driscoll, and B. Sapiie, “Options for Nuclear-Geothermal Gigawatt-Year Peak Electricity

Storage Systems,” Paper 10212, Proc. International Congress on Advanced Nuclear Power Plants, San Diego, 15-17 June

2010.

10. G. Haratyk and C. Forsberg, “Integrating Nuclear and Renewables for Hydrogen and Electricity Production”, Paper 1082,

Second International Meeting on the Safety and Technology of Nuclear Hydrogen Production, Control, and Management,

Embedded American Nuclear Society Topical, San Diego, 15-17 June 2010.

11. C. Forsberg, “Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen”, Paper 10076, Second

International Meeting on the Safety and Technology of Nuclear Hydrogen Production, Control, and Management,

Embedded American Nuclear Society Topical, San Diego, 15-17 June 2010.

12. C. Forsberg, Nuclear Power: Energy to Produce Liquid Fuels and Chemical, Chemical Engineering Progress (July 2010)

64