Peak Oil – Myth Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?or Menace?

Models to help understand Models to help understand peak oilpeak oil

Dr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha

University of DaytonUniversity of DaytonChautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007

US-48 ProductionUS-48 Production

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Alaska to the Rescue?Alaska to the Rescue?

US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov

United States Oil Production

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400018

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US-48

Many Countries Have Many Countries Have Peaked!Peaked!

US

UK

Indonesia

Iran?

http://www.bp.com

Venezuela

Association for the Study of Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)Peak Oil (ASPO)

OPEC Proved Crude Oil OPEC Proved Crude Oil ReservesReserves

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Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates

GaussianGaussian

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Gaussian Fit to US Gaussian Fit to US ProductionProduction

Gaussian Production(quadratic fit)

y = -0.0003x2 + 1.1875x - 1167.5

R2 = 0.9898

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Peak ModelsPeak Models

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USGS

Cumulative Discovery and Cumulative Discovery and ProductionProduction

US Geological Survey US Geological Survey EstimatesEstimates

www.ihs.com

Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)

Rough Outline of the Rough Outline of the FutureFuture

USGS published reserve estimates in USGS published reserve estimates in 19981998

EIA uses those estimates, along with EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future consumption patterns to predict future growthgrowth

A gap between predicted demand and A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030predicted production appears by 2030

Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources“unidentified unconventional” sources

Logistic CurveLogistic CurveLogistic Curve

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Logistic Curve

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1980 Prediction

Logistic Curve

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“Economic” argument: We will alwaysfind more and increase ultimate recovered amount

= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)dQdt

Problem with Logistic Problem with Logistic CurvesCurves

At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar.

There are too many free fitting parameters

The Point Remains …The Point Remains …US 48 Oil Production

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Hubbert LinearizationHubbert Linearization

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568

Q (Gbbl)

P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

HL - TexasHL - TexasUS 48 Hubbert Linearization

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HL - WorldHL - World

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One Prediction (1998)One Prediction (1998)

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

Duncan and Youngquist Duncan and Youngquist PredictionsPredictions

Peaked prior to 1997Peaked prior to 1997 14 14 countriescountries

Recovered from peak after 1997Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries0 countries

Predicted to peak 1998-2005Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 16 countriescountries

Actually peaked between 1998-Actually peaked between 1998-20052005

11 11 countriescountries

Predicted to peak after 2005Predicted to peak after 2005 13 13 countriescountries

Predicted to peak after 2005, Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peakedbut have already peaked

2 countries2 countries

Finding NorwaysFinding Norways

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

2/3 !

Keep Watching…Keep Watching…World Oil Supply

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SummarySummary

Believe “official predictions”Believe “official predictions” Gaussian fittingGaussian fitting Logistic modelLogistic model

CumulativeCumulative YearlyYearly LinearizationLinearization

Country-by-country watchCountry-by-country watch Monthly dataMonthly data