peak oil what it is what it means the challenge for the church
TRANSCRIPT
Peak OilWhat it is
What it means
The challenge for the church
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Pharaoh’s dream
• Seven fat barrels of oil
• Seven thin barrels of oil
• And the thin consumes the fat
• Can we appoint a Joseph?–Or is it all too late?
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Energy
• 1st law of thermodynamics – energy can’t be created
• 2nd law of thermodynamics – energy degrades (entropy)
• Organised life is the delay of entropy
• The ability to do work
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Eiffel tower
• Energy in car fuel tank….
• Could lift 50 cars to the top of the Eiffel tower
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Slave army
• Average European has c.100 ‘slaves’
• Not an accident when slavery was abolished
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Oil as a source of energy
• Oil is dense and easy to handle
• Excellent form of energy – the best that we know of
• At the moment– Oil provides 43% of total energy– 95% of transportation energy
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Fossil fuel
• Deposits of ancient sunlight
• A non-renewable inheritance
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
EROEI
• Energy Return on Energy Invested
• Oil started at 100:1 – moved to 30:1
• Coal 80:1 – 15:1
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Peak Oil
• It’s all about flow• Imagine a tap
–Open tap wider, the flow increases
–Gravity draws down reserve–Pressure drops – flow
decreases
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
The Hubbert curve
• Peaking is a geological fact– 54 out of top 65
producers have peaked
• And the tap is not at the bottom of the barrel
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
North Sea (UK)
• North Sea decline c. 7.5% per annum
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
United States (48)
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October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Oil discovery and extraction
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Past
Future
Production
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Supply and Demand
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Net Export Capacity
• Small number of exporting nations
• Domestic demand increasing
• ‘Free’ oil will shrink more rapidly than overall global supply
• EG Mexico
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Mexico• Supplies 8% of US
imports• #4 producer world
wide• Cantarell
– Eighth largest field in world
– 10% decline in first six months of this year
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Supply and Demand
• In 2006 world supply trending down 3%
• Not necessarily physical peak
• But first decline preceded by rising prices
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Supply and demand
• Good news: we will never run out of oil
• Bad news: it will become so expensive we won’t be able to afford it
• At $65 a barrel it is cheaper than bottled water…
• And it will get chaotic
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
When is the peak?
• Two parts: when is the peak/plateau?– 2008? 2015? 2004?
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
How steep is the descent?
• 2% manageable
• 5% difficult
• 8%+ catastrophic
• Technology is the enemy here– Most advanced fields shrink fastest– North Sea decline c. 7.5% per annum– Yibal 250k bd 1998; 88kbd 2005
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
How steep is the descent?
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
A time of abundant and easy energy
• Oil is cheaper than bottled water
• All alternatives are worse in some respect
• Either: invent a new energy source – today would not be too soon
• Or: energy is going to become very expensive
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Some good news
• Wind is significantly positive (c 20:1)
• So is solar (c 4:1)
• So are tidal, wave, HEP…
• And possibly bio-diesel (Brazil = 9:1)
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
But not…
• Coal sands c. 1.2:1– ‘only process that takes gold and turns it into lead’
• Nuclear– May have short term role
• The only long term answers are renewables• Existing technology can – in principle –
provide sufficient energy for many of our domestic needs (home heating etc)
• BUT NOT TRANSPORT
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Hirsch report
•"The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and long-lasting. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be
abrupt and discontinuous.“
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
The Great Dislocation
• Hirsch report estimates 20 years for US
• IF ‘man on the moon’ project and settled will
• ie $1 TRILLION p.a. FOR 20 YEARS
• IF before peak
• It hasn’t happened
• We are facing a ‘great dislocation’
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
It’s about liquid fuel
• 90% of transportation powered by oil
• 95% of oil used for transport
• Huge investment in existing fleet
• Switching to alternative fuels is problematic to say the least
• “Not primarily an energy crisis, but a liquid fuels crisis”
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
• It will become a choice between growing grain to
feed the world, and growing grain to drive our
cars
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Some figures
• Air freight: 7-9.5 MJ/tonne-km– Short-haul air: 25 to 40
• Light trucks: 9 - 20• Heavy trucks: 0.7 - 2• Diesel train: 0.2 - 0.8
– Electric train is better (and renewable)
• Container ship: 0.15 – 0.2• Organic farming uses 50% of energy for
same amount of food
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
And by the way• "Oil wars are certainly
not out of the question.“– US Army Corps of
Engineers, Report on Peak Oil, 2005
• “I have had discussions with leaders in China, with advisers to the president, about peak oil and they said they know about peak oil and they will act accordingly." (ASPO)
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
And by the way 2• Transport will become very expensive
– Commuting will be communal (electric rail) or non-existent (car pools to begin with)
• Food will become very expensive– Unless we set up local co-operatives– Where will the food come from?
• Heating will become very expensive– Gas peak is also imminent– Much more house sharing
• Electricity will become very expensive– Labour saving devices?
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Following that through…
• Lots of businesses will fail– Airlines first (4/6 US already)– Tourism (caravans)
• Unemployment will rise initially– Then back to the land
• Stockmarkets will contract severely– Pensions? Stipends?
• Housing market? Inflation? Deflation?• Re-run of the 1930’s
– If we’re lucky
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
And by the way 3
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
So we’re back to 1900?
• That’s not so bad!• Lots of permanent assets from oil• BUT• In 1900 the world population was
1.9bn• In 2006 the world population is
about 6.6bn
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Die-off
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Freedom from fossil fuels
• Get out of debt
• Get in shape
• Start a garden
• Learn to live more simply
• Life post PO will be very good…
• …for those who get there
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Choices• Try to preserve the status quo?
• Last Man Standing?
• What is worth dying for? What is worth killing for?
• What is worth living for?
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Secular Options
• Descent of the SEP field
• Something will turn up– (who/what are you putting your faith in?)
• I’m alright Jack
• Suicide is painless
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
The Prophetic Imagination
• Walter Brueggemann• The Royal Consciousness
– Affluence, oppression, immanence• Naming the powers• Oil based consumerism is our Moloch• God is bringing the Western way of life to an
end
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
• “The task of prophetic ministry is to nurture, nourish and evoke a consciousness and perception alternative to
the consciousness and perception of the dominant
culture”.
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
What the church is called to
• identify the Royal Consciousness;• articulate the pain of the marginalised and
oppressed who have no present voice or witness;
• challenge the claims to power made on behalf of the Royal Consciousness, with a view to demonstrating their emptiness;
• labour with confident expectation towards the dismantling of the present structures;
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
What the church is called to
• develop new communities which break away from obeisance to the Royal Consciousness, and which offer the opportunity of free life in the image of the free God;
• articulate a vision of hope, a promised land, on the other side of Peak Oil, which will sustain us through the transition period in the wilderness; and
• trust in God.
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
A Jeremiah for today
Matthew Simmons
Chairman and CEO of Simmons International
(major investment bank)
Faculty of Harvard Business School
Adviser to George W Bush
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Twilight in the Desert
• Saudi oil reserves fraudulent
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Opec reserves
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Twilight in the Desert
• Saudi oil reserves fraudulent
• Production is close to – or AT – ‘peak’– 1990 c 10,000 bpd per well– 1998 c 5140– 2005 c 3500
• ‘Once Saudi peaks – the world peaks’
• Saudis now admit 8% decline in existing fields
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
In 2006…
• Decline is running at 3%
• If maintained, means c.50mbd in 2015
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Context
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Context 2
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil
Copyrights
• Graphs and data from DTI, Stuart Staniford & Khebab @ The Oil Drum, and Colin Campbell at ASPO
• Used under terms of creative commons license