peak oil what it is what it means the challenge for the church

Peak OilWhat it is

What it means

The challenge for the church

October 2006 Let us be Human 2Peak Oil

Pharaoh’s dream

• Seven fat barrels of oil

• Seven thin barrels of oil

• And the thin consumes the fat

• Can we appoint a Joseph?–Or is it all too late?


Energy

• 1st law of thermodynamics – energy can’t be created

• 2nd law of thermodynamics – energy degrades (entropy)

• Organised life is the delay of entropy

• The ability to do work


Eiffel tower

• Energy in car fuel tank….

• Could lift 50 cars to the top of the Eiffel tower


Slave army

• Average European has c.100 ‘slaves’

• Not an accident when slavery was abolished


Oil as a source of energy

• Oil is dense and easy to handle

• Excellent form of energy – the best that we know of

• At the moment– Oil provides 43% of total energy– 95% of transportation energy


Fossil fuel

• Deposits of ancient sunlight

• A non-renewable inheritance


EROEI

• Energy Return on Energy Invested

• Oil started at 100:1 – moved to 30:1

• Coal 80:1 – 15:1


Peak Oil

• It’s all about flow• Imagine a tap

–Open tap wider, the flow increases

–Gravity draws down reserve–Pressure drops – flow

decreases


The Hubbert curve

• Peaking is a geological fact– 54 out of top 65

producers have peaked

• And the tap is not at the bottom of the barrel


North Sea (UK)

• North Sea decline c. 7.5% per annum


United States (48)

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Past

Future

Production


Supply and Demand


Net Export Capacity

• Small number of exporting nations

• Domestic demand increasing

• ‘Free’ oil will shrink more rapidly than overall global supply

• EG Mexico


Mexico• Supplies 8% of US

imports• #4 producer world

wide• Cantarell

– Eighth largest field in world

– 10% decline in first six months of this year


Supply and Demand

• In 2006 world supply trending down 3%

• Not necessarily physical peak

• But first decline preceded by rising prices


Supply and demand

• Good news: we will never run out of oil

• Bad news: it will become so expensive we won’t be able to afford it

• At $65 a barrel it is cheaper than bottled water…

• And it will get chaotic


When is the peak?

• Two parts: when is the peak/plateau?– 2008? 2015? 2004?


How steep is the descent?

• 2% manageable

• 5% difficult

• 8%+ catastrophic

• Technology is the enemy here– Most advanced fields shrink fastest– North Sea decline c. 7.5% per annum– Yibal 250k bd 1998; 88kbd 2005


How steep is the descent?


A time of abundant and easy energy

• Oil is cheaper than bottled water

• All alternatives are worse in some respect

• Either: invent a new energy source – today would not be too soon

• Or: energy is going to become very expensive


Some good news

• Wind is significantly positive (c 20:1)

• So is solar (c 4:1)

• So are tidal, wave, HEP…

• And possibly bio-diesel (Brazil = 9:1)


But not…

• Coal sands c. 1.2:1– ‘only process that takes gold and turns it into lead’

• Nuclear– May have short term role

• The only long term answers are renewables• Existing technology can – in principle –

provide sufficient energy for many of our domestic needs (home heating etc)

• BUT NOT TRANSPORT


Hirsch report

•"The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and long-lasting. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be

abrupt and discontinuous.“


The Great Dislocation

• Hirsch report estimates 20 years for US

• IF ‘man on the moon’ project and settled will

• ie $1 TRILLION p.a. FOR 20 YEARS

• IF before peak

• It hasn’t happened

• We are facing a ‘great dislocation’


It’s about liquid fuel

• 90% of transportation powered by oil

• 95% of oil used for transport

• Huge investment in existing fleet

• Switching to alternative fuels is problematic to say the least

• “Not primarily an energy crisis, but a liquid fuels crisis”


• It will become a choice between growing grain to

feed the world, and growing grain to drive our

cars


Some figures

• Air freight: 7-9.5 MJ/tonne-km– Short-haul air: 25 to 40

• Light trucks: 9 - 20• Heavy trucks: 0.7 - 2• Diesel train: 0.2 - 0.8

– Electric train is better (and renewable)

• Container ship: 0.15 – 0.2• Organic farming uses 50% of energy for

same amount of food


And by the way• "Oil wars are certainly

not out of the question.“– US Army Corps of

Engineers, Report on Peak Oil, 2005

• “I have had discussions with leaders in China, with advisers to the president, about peak oil and they said they know about peak oil and they will act accordingly." (ASPO)


And by the way 2• Transport will become very expensive

– Commuting will be communal (electric rail) or non-existent (car pools to begin with)

• Food will become very expensive– Unless we set up local co-operatives– Where will the food come from?

• Heating will become very expensive– Gas peak is also imminent– Much more house sharing

• Electricity will become very expensive– Labour saving devices?


Following that through…

• Lots of businesses will fail– Airlines first (4/6 US already)– Tourism (caravans)

• Unemployment will rise initially– Then back to the land

• Stockmarkets will contract severely– Pensions? Stipends?

• Housing market? Inflation? Deflation?• Re-run of the 1930’s

– If we’re lucky


And by the way 3


So we’re back to 1900?

• That’s not so bad!• Lots of permanent assets from oil• BUT• In 1900 the world population was

1.9bn• In 2006 the world population is

about 6.6bn


Die-off


Freedom from fossil fuels

• Get out of debt

• Get in shape

• Start a garden

• Learn to live more simply

• Life post PO will be very good…

• …for those who get there


Choices• Try to preserve the status quo?

• Last Man Standing?

• What is worth dying for? What is worth killing for?

• What is worth living for?


Secular Options

• Descent of the SEP field

• Something will turn up– (who/what are you putting your faith in?)

• I’m alright Jack

• Suicide is painless


The Prophetic Imagination

• Walter Brueggemann• The Royal Consciousness

– Affluence, oppression, immanence• Naming the powers• Oil based consumerism is our Moloch• God is bringing the Western way of life to an

end


• “The task of prophetic ministry is to nurture, nourish and evoke a consciousness and perception alternative to

the consciousness and perception of the dominant

culture”.


What the church is called to

• identify the Royal Consciousness;• articulate the pain of the marginalised and

oppressed who have no present voice or witness;

• challenge the claims to power made on behalf of the Royal Consciousness, with a view to demonstrating their emptiness;

• labour with confident expectation towards the dismantling of the present structures;


What the church is called to

• develop new communities which break away from obeisance to the Royal Consciousness, and which offer the opportunity of free life in the image of the free God;

• articulate a vision of hope, a promised land, on the other side of Peak Oil, which will sustain us through the transition period in the wilderness; and

• trust in God.


A Jeremiah for today

Matthew Simmons

Chairman and CEO of Simmons International

(major investment bank)

Faculty of Harvard Business School

Adviser to George W Bush


Twilight in the Desert

• Saudi oil reserves fraudulent


Opec reserves


Twilight in the Desert

• Saudi oil reserves fraudulent

• Production is close to – or AT – ‘peak’– 1990 c 10,000 bpd per well– 1998 c 5140– 2005 c 3500

• ‘Once Saudi peaks – the world peaks’

• Saudis now admit 8% decline in existing fields


In 2006…

• Decline is running at 3%

• If maintained, means c.50mbd in 2015


Context


Context 2


Copyrights

• Graphs and data from DTI, Stuart Staniford & Khebab @ The Oil Drum, and Colin Campbell at ASPO

• Used under terms of creative commons license

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